Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[Ryan Coke]

I personally have not written Smith off, the best outcome is still for him to find some consistency and be at least be an average NHL goaltender. People who have written him off and are proverbially ejecting him towards a star are just frustrated, and I get that.

But if your going to sit there and post numbers to try to say that he hasn’t really been that bad....what’s the point? What are you arguing, that he hasn’t been that bad? Then that is defending his play. Are we really all parsing the exact level of how poor he has been that’s the issue? He might not be the worst goalie in the league this year, maybe he is only bottom 1/4?

If you agree he hasn’t been good, then what’s the point of trying to argue that with stats saying hey maybe he isn’t so bad after all...but then ending it with ‘not that I’m defending him.’ Yes that is what your doing. If you agree that he hasn’t been good, then don’t argue that.

If your arguing that it isn’t an easy fix, then talk about that, that is absolutely true.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Smith is this year’s Gultuzan. The same rationalizing of inaction is happening again (often by the same characters), and we’re again in a position where ignoring the seemingly obvious is risking our season. Even if the risk itself is different, we all know he’s holding us back from reaching full potential, and we all know change needs to be made to move forward...it’s just a matter of when. No, there are no perfect goalies to replace with him with him, and the cost may be high, but you can’t just waste another year due to fear of the unknown. Like with Peters, there’s no guarantee the replacement will be better. But it’s hard to imagine it can get worse.

The season won’t be a write-off with Smith, but it sure can be a big missed opportunity in a league where windows come and go fast. We already wasted a year, let’s not be stupid enough to do it again.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Sure but how many teams can boast they love their playoff chances if their starter goes down?

Right, but most teams have a competent back up that at least gives them a chance. Do an honest assessment of Smith's play so far this year. Can you really objectively feel any confidence in his goaltending at all? I certainly can't, and I feel like people defending his play with his wins record are going out of their way to make excuses for him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Right, but most teams have a competent back up that at least gives them a chance. Do an honest assessment of Smith's play so far this year. Can you really objectively feel any confidence in his goaltending at all? I certainly can't, and I feel like people defending his play with his wins record are going out of their way to make excuses for him.

I can't defend play based on his wins record. But I equally can't write off his wins as if he had nothing to do with them. Any more than I can write of the large number of Rittich wins for the same reason. Neither goalie has had to steal many games. Of course I can't recall a game Rittich lost, whereas I can recall probably three games that Smith lost (by which I mean cost the team a win).

Overall, an I unhappy with Smith? Yes. Do I want a different goalie? Yes. I didn't want him in the first place. Should Rittich be the number one? Yes. Should they just play Rittich every game? Nope. I think they need to throw Smith in every third game or so, at least to start. And, just like last year, and just like Elliott and Johnson, it's possible he goes on a streak.

[The Yen Man]

Like I have mentioned before, I hope I am proven wrong. But I really don't see the Flames going anywhere with Smith. If Rittich goes down in the playoffs, and the net goes back to Smith, I see the Flames getting swept, and a lot of pissed off fans lamenting what could have been had we had even a competent back up. Just Smith's body language, overplaying the simplest of shots, and the team's drop off in play after the inevitable soft goal by Smith at a crucial time instills zero confidence in me.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Right, but most teams have a competent back up that at least gives them a chance. Do an honest assessment of Smith's play so far this year. Can you really objectively feel any confidence in his goaltending at all? I certainly can't, and I feel like people defending his play with his wins record are going out of their way to make excuses for him.

Nobody is excusing his play. Some people are disagreeing with the assertion that he's completely incompetent, won't be able to win another game and must be replaced immediately by anybody and everybody which is an example of some of the hyperbole surrounding Smith.

Smith is a backup goaltender capable of winning games. That's really all we need him to be right now. I guess some people have short memories because I remember for almost all of Kiprusoff's career that we could almost never find a backup who was capable of winning games. Phil Sauve's 3.28 GAA, Brian Boucher's 4.94 GAA one year. McElhinney's 1-6 record with a 3.59 GAA one year. One year we had Karlsson go 1-4 with a 3.17 GAA and Irving go 1-3 with a 3.19 GAA so we had to play Kipper 70 games because you couldn't win a frickin game with a backup.

I don't know why people are so obsessed about the backup. Rittich is having a great season after a terrible preseason, it's a great story. Why spend all your energy talking about how the backup is bad half the time? It's still miles ahead of some of the years I've pointed out above. If the backup is bad half the time and we still win over half those games then we're in pretty good shape as a team.

I mean I would think we would be happy that the Flames look like they're finally developing a young goalie into something in Rittich. And with Parsons and Gillies in the pipeline we've got some nice depth there longterm. All this talk of acquiring goalies makes very little sense to me considering we're trying to develop our own young goalies. You ride with what you've got this year and hope Rittich continues to develop. In the summer you make a call about whether you can hand the reins to Rittich and if Gillies is ready to backup. In the summer is when you may look for a backup for Rittich. I don't think the Flames are at all looking for a costly starter.

Instead of hating on Smith why don't we thank the gods Rittich is looking good? Plenty of things to be happy about, why put so much negative energy into Smith? Look on the bright side people, focus on the positives. We've got what looks to be a good young goaltender with #1 upside who's having a great year.

[Ped]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I don't know why people are so obsessed about the backup. Rittich is having a great season after a terrible preseason, it's a great story. Why spend all your energy talking about how the backup is bad half the time? It's still miles ahead of some of the years I've pointed out above. If the backup is bad half the time and we still win over half those games then we're in pretty good shape as a team.

I suspect the reason most people have an issue with Smith is that the Flames keep trotting him out as if they're trying to get him to fight through this.


Obviously that's changed a bit of late, but the fact is, he's played more games than Rittich at this point.


Rittich is a great story. And obviously he's not ready to play 70 games a season, but as you point out, when the Flames had terrible backups before, they didn't play them unless they absolutely had to.

[transplant99]

There is little question that Smith either needs to be better or get replaced somehow and at some point.

He is now the defacto back-up moving forward so he needs to put up those kind of numbers.

So where are his numbers in those regards?

Using those who have played at least 12 games (roughly a 1/3 of the schedule thus far) and assuming a backup plays 1/3 of a season (26 games)...lets extrapolate.

Smith is 36th in GAA.....so 5th among backups assuming the 31 starters are above him

47th in save %.....16th among backups assuming 31 starters are better.

21st in wins...again assuming other teams starters are better across the board he is way ahead of most. (I realize this is very flawed given his status at seasons start).

So, as a backup, and assuming he plays as he has all season, he is actually pretty good numbers wise even if the optics have been brutal.

Again, Rittich cant start them all and given what we have seen thus far, Smith is not a terrible option to play the backup role.

That should buy BT lots of time to see if he can address the issue this season or if he will have to wait until the draft when lots more options and certainly more value can be found.

[Flamescuprun2018]

Not keen to give up more draft picks in a good draft year. When we are already down a 2nd pick.

Replacing Smith now will require a giving up a pick or prospect. Our cupboards are too bare in the farm/CHL for that. We have no blue chip prospects in WJC.

Smith already playing less as season evolves. Back to backs and odd road games against weaker competition. Had been working with 6 straight wins against softer competition until St. Louis.

Rittich should be capped at 45-50 starts and still has something in tank for playoffs.

Smith and Rittich get along with some mentorship from Smith. Let it ride for now.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flamescuprun2018

Not keen to give up more draft picks in a good draft year. When we are already down a 2nd pick.

Replacing Smith now will require a giving up a pick or prospect. Our cupboards are too bare in the farm/CHL for that. We have no blue chip prospects in WJC.

Smith already playing less as season evolves. Back to backs and odd road games against weaker competition. Had been working with 6 straight wins against softer competition until St. Louis.

Rittich should be capped at 45-50 starts and still has something in tank for playoffs.

Smith and Rittich get along with some mentorship from Smith. Let it ride for now.

I disagree. There is no point in waiting until it's a matter of urgency or desperation. That is when teams usually end up over paying even more. Most agree that goaltending is the weak link, so why not make the change before other teams have all the leverage in a trade?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I disagree. There is no point in waiting until it's a matter of urgency or desperation. That is when teams usually end up over paying even more. Most agree that goaltending is the weak link, so why not make the change before other teams have all the leverage in a trade?

Who has an extra goalie significantly better than Smith that they are trying to get rid of at a reasonable price? I really don't see a lot of them out there.

[jayswin]

My biggest concern with Smith (and one that I feel is overlooked in these debates) is that he's not your typical back up situation.

He's a catch 22 as you want to play him less because he's not very good, but he gets worse and worse the less games he plays.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Ped

I suspect the reason most people have an issue with Smith is that the Flames keep trotting him out as if they're trying to get him to fight through this.


Obviously that's changed a bit of late, but the fact is, he's played more games than Rittich at this point.


Rittich is a great story. And obviously he's not ready to play 70 games a season, but as you point out, when the Flames had terrible backups before, they didn't play them unless they absolutely had to.

And historically speaking, how has that turned out?

The number of starts that Make Smith continues to receive at this point is less about getting him going, and more about carefully managing the Flames's goaltending situation overall. There is a reluctance to play Rittich a lot because he has never played a lot. Not at ANY point in his professional hockey career. There is a recognition that even with Rittich playing as well as he is the Flames will need to manage his playing time with a view to a long post-season. There is a recognition that Smith will need more than just a game every three weeks to stay in game shape. There is a recognition that Smith will likely win as many games as he loses.

I suspect that the situation is subject to weekly review, and that these decisions are never as definitive as a number of fans wish them to be.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Who has an extra goalie significantly better than Smith that they are trying to get rid of at a reasonable price? I really don't see a lot of them out there.

If that is the limiting factor and we have to stand pat because of it, then so be it.

I just don't think waiting for the sake of waiting or until it becomes a critical issue, are the best courses of action.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

There is little question that Smith either needs to be better or get replaced somehow and at some point.

He is now the defacto back-up moving forward so he needs to put up those kind of numbers.

So where are his numbers in those regards?

Using those who have played at least 12 games (roughly a 1/3 of the schedule thus far) and assuming a backup plays 1/3 of a season (26 games)...lets extrapolate.

Smith is 36th in GAA.....so 5th among backups assuming the 31 starters are above him

47th in save %.....16th among backups assuming 31 starters are better.

21st in wins...again assuming other teams starters are better across the board he is way ahead of most. (I realize this is very flawed given his status at seasons start).

So, as a backup, and assuming he plays as he has all season, he is actually pretty good numbers wise even if the optics have been brutal.

Again, Rittich cant start them all and given what we have seen thus far, Smith is not a terrible option to play the backup role.

That should buy BT lots of time to see if he can address the issue this season or if he will have to wait until the draft when lots more options and certainly more value can be found.

Proof once again that stats can be massaged to say anything you want them to say.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Proof once again that stats can be massaged to say anything you want them to say.

This is the second time in as many weeks you’ve thrown your hands up when statistics/facts haven’t supported your argument and tried to dismiss them outright.

The facts just don’t support the dramatics of the anti-Smith argument. But I think you know that, since every post has you moving the target or stating some new opinion that facts don’t support.

It’s not convenient that facts support one side and not the other, it’s the reality of most positions that can be tested based on measurable information. If you don’t like it, don’t make statements that aren’t factual. Simple.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Proof once again that stats can be massaged to say anything you want them to say.

Do you not agree with the conclusion of what was said?

Im not spinning/massaging anything at all, moreso just looking where his numbers fit in with the other 61 goaltenders on NHL rosters at any given time. Things in context...you know?

Or are you just so entrenched in whatever position you are wailing on about you don't want to see something that might be contradictory?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

This is the second time in as many weeks you’ve thrown your hands up when statistics/facts haven’t supported your argument and tried to dismiss them outright.

The facts just don’t support the dramatics of the anti-Smith argument. But I think you know that, since every post has you moving the target or stating some new opinion that facts don’t support.

It’s not convenient that facts support one side and not the other, it’s the reality of most positions that can be tested based on measurable information. If you don’t like it, don’t make statements that aren’t factual. Simple.

Or... maybe the stats presented weren't the whole story.

Not all teams are equivalent defensively, so simply comparing GAAs league-wide may not paint the total picture.

Another thing we can do is compare the stats of the goalies on the same team (and thus with the same team in front of them) and see how that looks.

Rittich and Smith have played a very similar number of games, and have actually faced the same number of shots (520 for Smith, and 519 for Rittich). Yet Smith had surrendered 45% more goals, and his Sv% is a full 70 points lower. Those are very significant differences.

Who's the one guilty of dramatics here? Simply repeating over and over that you think others are being overly dramatic doesn't add much to the conversation.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Do you not agree with the conclusion of what was said?

Im not spinning/massaging anything at all, moreso just looking where his numbers fit in with the other 61 goaltenders on NHL rosters at any given time. Things in context...you know?

Or are you just so entrenched in whatever position you are wailing on about you don't want to see something that might be contradictory?

Ah, now I am being entrenched, as well as dramatic.

Please see the post right after yours for some more context.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

We are at 'Eiffel Tower' at best.