[PGT] Blues 3 - Flames 1

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That is not the only hope. There is no reason to think that Smith cannot continue to deliver wins at the same pace he has this season even with his current level of play. It seems likely that he will still come up with some clutch performances here and there, because this is what he has done to this point of the year. It’s not like he can’t win games; even with all the mistakes, his overall poor play and bad goals he continues to pick up wins. I don’t see why this would suddenly now change, and I think the coaches will continue to use him like they have for the past six or seven weeks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If all games were equal, perhaps. However there is a narrative out there about games in the second half of the year becoming more competitive and tighter.

If that narrative is something you can rely on, then the probability of the offense simply scoring at will to overcome poor goaltending will be lower.

I think something that has to be regarded as a truth is that it is much easier to allow a goal than it is to score one.

As for why it would suddenly change, one thing has already suddenly changed. Last year, when he returned from his injury, and when other teams were playing demonstrably better than the Flames. The post last season’s injury Mike Smith is the new normal Mike Smith.

With Resolute’s stats showing that he has struggled in 4 of every 7 starts. That’s exactly the proportion of playoff games that is required (at minimum) to decide a playoff series.

Here is a thought. Smith is 36 and not earning another big league payday. As you and others have acknowledged, not many people would want to trade for him. But what if his remaining term is of use in a trade? Hear me out. If you had a bad contract you could take back which had some term, and think there is some opportunity to de risk it by considering that asset salvageable, how about that. Like a guy who usually can be counted on for 20 goals, but who has only put up, say, 3 so far this year and can maybe benefit from a change of scene? I wonder if Tre could find that somewhere.
Oh. Crap. Never mind.

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, and he has an 11-7-1 record. What exactly is going to suddenly change to make the situation worse?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It’s entirely possible that the flames will be unable to come back to win after being behind as often as they have been early in the year, in fact it is likely that won’t happen as often.

In spite of his poor play the team has managed to give him a decent record, but it is quite likely that they won’t be able to continue to make up for his poor play should it continue. You can’t just hope that it won’t cost the team even more than it has.

Having said that, I do agree the solution isn’t as simple as some hope. But the GM still has to consider if a change is possible, and not just excuse it because the team is doing well in spite of him.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, and he has an 11-7-1 record. What exactly is going to suddenly change to make the situation worse?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I don’t think win/loss record is a reliable predictor of future success for a goalie. Kind of the opposite of an advanced stat IMO.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

I’m as mad as anyone that we lost but the flames only scored one goal. And I don’t blame Smith for all three against.

Maybe the game is different if he doesn’t let in that early softy but the flames came out flat anyways.

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

If we deserved to lose regardless of Smith’s play what’s all the complaining about then?

Yes the Flames came out flat. But momentum is a huge part of the game.

Smith let in the horrible first goal, giving the Blues confidence. This boosted them to a 10-3 shots margin, and a 2-0 lead, after the first 12 to 14 minutes. The goal greatly added to their early jump, and the lack of jump from the Flames.

Then the Flames started to get their legs, and got a goal to make it 2-1. This launched them on a 19-7 shots advantage, and total domination, over the next 35 minutes. Unfortunately they lacked some finish and some puck luck, and Allen made several fantastic saves.

Then early in the 3rd, STL dumped it in on Smith and he completely bobbled how he wanted to deal with it, ended up chest-smashing it instead of using his glove, and gave out a juicy and brutal rebound to offensive dynamo Oscar Sundqvist (5-3-8 coming into this game) and an easy goal. That goal deflated the Flames and the Blues outshot them the rest of the way, and totally shut them down.

Not only did Smith let in 2 terrible goals in a 2 goal game, but both goals gave the Blues momentum and deflated the Flames for a period of time. Because that is what goals do, they change the momentum of the game.

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, and he has an 11-7-1 record. What exactly is going to suddenly change to make the situation worse?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You're completely discounting the skaters are having to win in spite of him, rather than him being a positive contributor.

Yesterday was another type of game Flames would have to score a lot of goals to make up for the weak goals let in, but this time couldn't bail their goalie out as they have through most of the season.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Also, where is the secondary scoring?

The Flames are 6th in goals per game.

Secondary scoring does not get you goals every night, or it would be primary scoring.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

He had five wins in his past seven starts before today. As a second option in goal his 11-7-0-1 record is fairly palatable.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Exactly. He is a goalie who will still win games, will still manage to perform for all his faults. He is having a bad season—there is no question about that, but it really is not costing the Flames enough to prioritize making a significant change.

Disagree (and you're wrong on the stats).

Rittich: 11 - 4 - 2, .923, 2.29, .706 W%G
Smith.: 11 - 8 - 1, .888, 3.00, .575 W%G

A .575 winning percentage works out to 94 points and doesn't get them in the playoffs.

So here we are at the Christmas break, with almost half the season played, and where are we? We have one goalie who's record places us 2nd overall in W%G, and one goalie who leaves us out of the playoffs, or maybe scraping in as a wildcard if we're lucky.

I don't think this is the Flames' only window, but the window is indisputably now open. And Smith, after half a season, has shown that he is not giving them even acceptable backup goaltending.

Imagine what would happen to this season if Rittich gets hurt.

(I have been in the group touting patience, but time is pretty much up)

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, and he has an 11-7-1 record. What exactly is going to suddenly change to make the situation worse?

Games like yesterday where we fail to outscore his incompetence.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Joborule

You're completely discounting the skaters are having to win in spite of him, rather than him being a positive contributor.

A number of posters are completely discounting games in which Mike Smith has been a positive contributor. The shutouts. The win in Chicago. The win vs. Toronto. What I have never done is discounted the fact that while he has had terrible games the team has continued to win in spite of him. Like I continue to maintain I don't see why this pattern won't simply continue.

Yesterday was another type of game Flames would have to score a lot of goals to make up for the weak goals let in, but this time couldn't bail their goalie out as they have through most of the season.

Yeah, this is going to happen from time to time. As it will with virtually any of the proposed replacements for Mike Smith that we have seen in this thread, whom the Flames might be in a position to acquire.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don’t think win/loss record is a reliable predictor of future success for a goalie. Kind of the opposite of an advanced stat IMO.

The advanced statistics are firmly in favour of the Flames's current level of play continuing to yield positive results, regardless of whether it is Mike Smith or David Rittich playing goal.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The advanced statistics are firmly in favour of the Flames's current level of play continuing to yield positive results, regardless of whether it is Mike Smith or David Rittich playing goal.

This is way too simple to point to when we have a chance to be a Stanley Cup contender this spring.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

...So here we are at the Christmas break, with almost half the season played, and where are we? We have one goalie who's record places us 2nd overall in W%G, and one goalie who leaves us out of the playoffs, or maybe scraping in as a wildcard if we're lucky.

I don't think this is especially unusual. Good teams will often have to rely on marginal backup goalies from time to time.

I don't think this is the Flames' only window, but the window is indisputably now open. And Smith, after half a season, has shown that he is not giving them even acceptable backup goaltending.

Do you believe that management is not actively working on improving the situation? Do you think a solution is easily attainable?

Imagine what would happen to this season if Rittich gets hurt.

(I have been in the group touting patience, but time is pretty much up)

As a fan, you have the luxury of being impatient, but management having all the information at their disposal cannot afford to be even a little reactive. You are correct that an injury to Rittich sets this team in jeopardy, and at that point change is absolutely necessary. But we are not there yet. The Flames do not need a replacement backup goalie in the next few weeks.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The advanced statistics are firmly in favour of the Flames's current level of play continuing to yield positive results, regardless of whether it is Mike Smith or David Rittich playing goal.

There isn't a single person with even a base understanding of statistics or probabilities who would believe that this kind of record is sustainable in front of a goalie with an overall save percentage below .890. Or a HDSA below .800. That's 40th among goalies with 500 minutes, btw. Smith's inability to make easy saves isn't his only problem. He doesn't make enough difficult ones either.

[Jeff Lebowski]

These are interesting comments. Tkachuk thinks they can play their skill game to counter teams that want to play really defensive. Giordano thinks they need to simplify and just put pucks on net.

I watched TBL beat EDM's pack it in approach by playing their speed/skill game. However I've seen CGY become very ineffective when trying to individually beat these types of teams. Perhaps combining tactics would work well. If teams are trying to pack it in and not allow seam passes, as Gio states, you initially put it behind them and get those shots. Once you establish that you can then get the opponent backing up and those seam plays open up later in the game.

I like that Tkachuk thinks they need to assert their style (speed/skill) - that's the game I like and I think players want to play that way. However they need to execute and not turn it over. If they're getting 1st and 3rd period STL results then change it up.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think this is especially unusual. Good teams will often have to rely on marginal backup goalies from time to time.

name another contender in the same situation

Do you believe that management is not actively working on improving the situation? Do you think a solution is easily attainable?

No, I assume they are - that is pretty much my point

As a fan, you have the luxury of being impatient, but management having all the information at their disposal cannot afford to be even a little reactive. You are correct that an injury to Rittich sets this team in jeopardy, and at that point change is absolutely necessary. But we are not there yet. The Flames do not need a replacement backup goalie in the next few weeks.

Waiting until there is an injury is not the correct way to GM.

[oldschoolcalgary]

they absolutely need to fix their game plan versus the pack-it-in teams like Dallas and Edmonton, you can't carry the puck in with these teams and invariably the team gets bogged down at center ice...

dump it in with the players actually pursuing the dump in like CFL wrs timing snaps is something Calgary needs versus teams like Edmonton that are more than happy to turn games into a horrible sludgefart.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

name another contender in the same situation.

Nashville, Columbus, San Jose.

Just off the top of my head, three teams where one of their two goals is playing about as miserable as Smith.

In fact, when looking at point %, you can pretty much include every team below the Flames but still in the top 16 (MTL, Vegas, Anaheim, etc).

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

they absolutely need to fix their game plan versus the pack-it-in teams like Dallas and Edmonton, you can't carry the puck in with these teams and invariably the team gets bogged down at center ice...

dump it in with the players actually pursuing the dump in like CFL wrs timing snaps is something Calgary needs versus teams like Edmonton that are more than happy to turn games into a horrible sludgefart.

TBL didn't have to do that. They just keep executing and their speed stretches teams out of that defensive shape.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

He's received more starts than he's deserved this season. You can argue that Rittich should have got the start yesterday backing on to the Christmas break. I get that they assumed a struggling Blues team would be a good opportunity to start your struggling backup but maybe in hindsight the team goes for the two points rather than try to get Smith going. It's pretty obvious at this point Smith is isn't going to get going as he's struggled for a calendar year now. Probably time to just keep starting Rittich as much as possible and save Smith for back to backs. Smith shouldn't start again until January 2nd in Detroit with Rittich starting the 3rd against Boston and his only other January start should be January 18th against the Wings again with Rittich getting the start the next night against the Oilers.

Again...Rittich had just started 4 games in 6 days and that was after coming into the 3rd period the game before all of that.

Starting Smith yesterday was the right choice unless you want to kill the #1 guy before the end of January.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

name another contender in the same situation

Pretty much all of them not named Tampa Bay have had goaltending issues this year whether it be the starter or the backup. Its the nature of the position.

I still think Tre is looking at every turn for something that makes sense for the club both acquisition cost and long term viability wise. I just don't think there is anything worth it t him as of yet...and there may not be until the draft actually.

That's OK though, as that is where better value is generally found and it's not like this club isn't built for a long term window, so i expect that he is looking at it the exact same way.