[Signing] Flames sign James Neal (5 years, 5.75 AAV)

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Neal's regression is outside the normal regression but not necessarily unexpected. I ran the numbers for 20 NHL players who averaged over 20 goals per 82 games from the age of 21-30 (Brown, Pavelski, Thornton, Carter, Nash, Callahan, Pominville, Marleau, Backes, Bergeron, Plekanec, Vanek, Parise, Staal, Spezza, Steen, Kesler, Getzlaf, Eriksson, Ovechkin)

Of that list of 20 players, only two averaged more goals per 82 games after turning 31 than they did before (Pavelski and Bergeron). The other 18 were worse in terms of goals per 82 games.

Of that list only two players averaged more shots per game after 31 than before (Bergeron and Marleau)

Of that list only four had a higher shooting percentage after turning 31 than before (Pavelski, Staal, Steen and Ovechkin)

On average those players scored 22.5% fewer goals per 82 games played after 31 than they did before they turned 31.

On average those players had 14.4% fewer shots per game after 31 than before 31. And on average those players had a 11.8% lower shooting percentage after 31 than before 31.

Neal averaged 254 shots per 82 games before 31 with a 12.1% shooting percentage.

If Neal was the average player after the age of 31, based on his pre-31 numbers he would take approximately 217 shots this year, he would score on approximately 10.6% of them for 23 goals (all averaged over 82 games)

Unfortunately for us, Neal's current numbers are off the charts, shooting percentage down 67%, shots on goal down 28.7% and goals down 77.4%. Even I think those numbers are unsustainable.

My worry is that his numbers are closer to the bottom 5 players on that list, who had a 33.4% drop in their shooting percentage and a 30.3% drop in their number of shots. If that is the James Neal we have his numbers over 82 games would be

Shots - 177
Shooting Percentage - 8%
Goals - 15

That is the player over 82 games that I suspect we have. But comparing what he did before 31 and assuming he will continue it is unlikely based on what other similar players have accomplished in their 30's in the NHL. The good news is that he will be better, the bad news is that he is likely never going to be a consistent 20 goal man again (both because of regression and his inability to stay healthy historically).

But any NHL GM would pay a forward in his 30's with an expectation that they will score less goals, take less shots and have a lower shooting percentage than they did in their 20's. If they didn't they were not looking at the historical averages. For most forwards over the age of 31 it is the perfect storm of a lower shooting percentage and much fewer shots on goal which leads to a significant drop in the number of goals they score.

TLDR: “Treliving, what’d 5 fingers say to the face?”

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

To watch Troy Brouwer was to question 'why is this man in the NHL?'

He's on pace for 18 goals this year, so basically back to his normal.

[rain_e]

Here's another useless stat: Flames are scoreless and winless without Neal in the lineup.

[Classic_Sniper]

Brad Treliving was just on the Morning Show:

Talked about James Neal:
- Not going to beat up on him right now
- Looking to support him instead and offer feedback
- Said he needs players around him with pace
- Tried to find players who can compliment him
- Thinks he can come out of it
- Telling him to get his tempo up and get to the net


Personally, I think there's a disconnect with the braintrust in this organization. They've added a few veteran "scorers" over the years on the UFA market who they've expected to score, (i.e. Mason Raymond, Troy Brouwer, James Neal) but haven't. Brouwer however seems to be doing quite well right now with Florida, on pace for almost 20 even strength goals on the 4th line which would be a career high for him.

I think this organization needs to start looking for skilled playmakers instead from now on. A player similar to a Johnny Gaudreau who can hold on to the puck, draw defenders and make plays out of nothing. Stop looking for finishers who just happened to be in good situations on their previous teams because July 1st is starting to feel more like an insane rinse and repeat cycle that ends up with a horrible buyout shortly after. The pro scouts in this organization will need to face the harsh truth at some point here.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I don't think Neal is the same as Raymond and Brouwer. Neal is an established pure finisher. This season is strange because that's not happening. But I look at Raymond and Brouwer as less skilled players who have been able to produce at times in their career, in spite of average skill levels.
Neal though has actual hands. I think signing him was an effort to bring in a guy that was a pure one shot scorer.

It hasn't worked but I don't view it as the same type of signing as the others

[ResAlien]

Overpaid and underperforming is the same regardless of how you want to break it down semantically.

[Shazam]

Originally Posted by Itse

He's on pace for 18 goals this year, so basically back to his normal.

I blame GG. That guy...

[bax]

Originally Posted by Itse

He's on pace for 18 goals this year, so basically back to his normal.

Also on pace for a whopping 5 assists so 23 points total (which is only one more than he had last year).

That's the funny thing about pace. I bet Brouwer finishes the year with less than 20 points.

So not back to his normal. His normal is the same as it was last year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Overpaid and underperforming is the same regardless of how you want to break it down semantically.

And by that I guess you mean if you want to be over simplistic in the analysis.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I don't think Neal is the same as Raymond and Brouwer. Neal is an established pure finisher. This season is strange because that's not happening. But I look at Raymond and Brouwer as less skilled players who have been able to produce at times in their career, in spite of average skill levels.
Neal though has actual hands. I think signing him was an effort to bring in a guy that was a pure one shot scorer.

It hasn't worked but I don't view it as the same type of signing as the others

It seems to have the same hallmarks though and sadly, it's an even more expensive and costly gamble this time around.

This isn't something that even affects just the Flames. There are countless players who enter a new a team/new situation and struggle to produce like they did in previous seasons with previous teams. The more I watch hockey, the more I realize there are true drivers of play and then there are beneficiaries.

The latter being the more dangerous ones that teams need to avoid and that's what organizations pay their pro scouts to do: to differentiate and separate the contenders from the pretenders; and it's something I don't think this organization has had enough success with over the years.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by bax

Also on pace for a whopping 5 assists so 23 points total (which is only one more than he had last year).

That's the funny thing about pace. I bet Brouwer finishes the year with less than 20 points.

So not back to his normal. His normal is the same as it was last year.

He's playing on the 4th line. A 19 goal pace for a forward who players 11 minutes a game is extremely impressive. Even if slows down and ends with 15 is still excellent. If the Flames had a 4th liner who could hit that mark, there's no doubt we'd be a Stanley Cup contender. Imagine how much better this team would be if Garnet Hathaway could score almost 20 goals this season.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Brad Treliving was just on the Morning Show:

Talked about James Neal:
- Not going to beat up on him right now
- Looking to support him instead and offer feedback
- Said he needs players around him with pace
- Tried to find players who can compliment him
- Thinks he can come out of it
- Telling him to get his tempo up and get to the net


Personally, I think there's a disconnect with the braintrust in this organization. They've added a few veteran "scorers" over the years on the UFA market who they've expected to score, (i.e. Mason Raymond, Troy Brouwer, James Neal) but haven't. Brouwer however seems to be doing quite well right now with Florida, on pace for almost 20 even strength goals on the 4th line which would be a career high for him.

I think this organization needs to start looking for skilled playmakers instead from now on. A player similar to a Johnny Gaudreau who can hold on to the puck, draw defenders and make plays out of nothing. Stop looking for finishers who just happened to be in good situations on their previous teams because July 1st is starting to feel more like an insane rinse and repeat cycle that ends up with a horrible buyout shortly after. The pro scouts in this organization will need to face the harsh truth at some point here.

I agree with Treliving way more than you. First, Neal has performed on 4 different teams before this - it wasn't just lucky draws. Secondly, your Brouwer argument doesn't make sense with the point you are trying to make. Third, Sean Monahan - not a playmaker, but worth every dime. Someone has to score.

Pro scouts in this organization have brought you Lindholm, Hanifin, Frolik, Hamonic. Have they had misses? Sure. Name a team that hasn't.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bax

Also on pace for a whopping 5 assists so 23 points total (which is only one more than he had last year).

That's the funny thing about pace. I bet Brouwer finishes the year with less than 20 points.

So not back to his normal. His normal is the same as it was last year.

And last year he only played 76 games so his 82 game "pace" was 24 points. And last year his roster spot was all over the place but included healthy 4th line minutes with offensive dynamos like Stajan and Lazar (and even Glass). This year, he's played a lot on the fourth (with Sceviour who isn't bad) but his points have been widely spread - he's got points on lines with better players too - Barkov, Bjugstad, Dadonov, Huberdeau and McAnn.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree with Treliving way more than you. First, Neal has performed on 4 different teams before this - it wasn't just lucky draws. Secondly, your Brouwer argument doesn't make sense with the point you are trying to make. Third, Sean Monahan - not a playmaker, but worth every dime. Someone has to score.

Pro scouts in this organization have brought you Lindholm, Hanifin, Frolik, Hamonic. Have they had misses? Sure. Name a team that hasn't.

All teams have misses and makes, but it's the sheer number costly misses that warrants criticism. Guys they specifically targeted like Raymond, Bollig, Brouwer, Hiller, Elliott, Lazar, Shinkaruk, Freddie Hamilton, Lack, Jokipakka, Grossman and now Neal, Czarnik, Ryan and Mike Smith have been disappointments especially for their combined cap hits over the next however many years. It's not even just the misses, it's also giving up on useful players like Paul Byron, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund and etc.

It's a prudent move to analyze specific parts of the organization to see if the performance fits the bill. I remember this place going all "In Darryl Sutter We Trust" and look how that turned out. I'm not even saying they're doing a poor job, we're a good team right now. But what I am saying is that, same mistakes are being made that could come back to haunt this team down the road.

The Brouwer argument has more to do with posts I made the other day about fit. Brouwer didn't fit here, but that doesn't mean he sucks. Same situation with James Neal, he was also successful elsewhere, but why is the current style and construction of this team is not a good fit for him and those others right now. These are the types of intellectually honest conversations I would hope this organization is having.

Lastly, I didn't mention a thing about Monahan, so not sure where you were hoping to go with that. But I still stand very firmly on my argument that this team needs more playmakers who can turn average goal scorers into excellent ones instead of looking for goal scorers who scored because of favorable situations. Or at the very least, find a player who has the ability to create their own shot and score from a distance. Something Neal, Brouwer, Raymond and etc did not display here.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

All teams have misses and makes, but it's the sheer number costly misses that warrants criticism. Guys they specifically targeted like Raymond, Bollig, Brouwer, Hiller, Elliott, Lazar, Shinkaruk, Freddie Hamilton, Lack, Jokipakka, Grossman and now Neal, Czarnik, Ryan and Mike Smith have been disappointments especially for their combined cap hits over the next however many years. It's not even just the misses, it's also giving up on useful players like Paul Byron, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund and etc.

It's a prudent move to analyze specific parts of the organization to see if the performance fits the bill. I remember this place going all "In Darryl Sutter We Trust" and look how that turned out. I'm not even saying they're doing a poor job, we're a good team right now. But what I am saying is that, same mistakes are being made that could come back to haunt this team down the road.

The Brouwer argument has more to do with posts I made the other day about fit. Brouwer didn't fit here, but that doesn't mean he sucks. Same situation with James Neal, he was also successful elsewhere, but why is the current style and construction of this team is not a good fit for him and those others right now. These are the types of intellectually honest conversations I would hope this organization is having.

Lastly, I didn't mention a thing about Monahan, so not sure where you were hoping to go with that. But I still stand very firmly on my argument that this team needs more playmakers who can turn average goal scorers into excellent ones instead of looking for goal scorers who scored because of favorable situations. Or at the very least, find a player who has the ability to create their own shot and score from a distance. Something Neal, Brouwer, Raymond and etc did not display here.

How quickly we forget.

He was the epitome of sucking... The momentum out of every single play if a puck happened to touch his stick

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

All teams have misses and makes, but it's the sheer number costly misses that warrants criticism. Guys they specifically targeted like Raymond, Bollig, Brouwer, Hiller, Elliott, Lazar, Shinkaruk, Freddie Hamilton, Lack, Jokipakka, Grossman and now Neal, Czarnik, Ryan and Mike Smith have been disappointments especially for their combined cap hits over the next however many years. It's not even just the misses, it's also giving up on useful players like Paul Byron, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund and etc.

It's a prudent move to analyze specific parts of the organization to see if the performance fits the bill. I remember this place going all "In Darryl Sutter We Trust" and look how that turned out. I'm not even saying they're doing a poor job, we're a good team right now. But what I am saying is that, same mistakes are being made that could come back to haunt this team down the road.

The Brouwer argument has more to do with posts I made the other day about fit. Brouwer didn't fit here, but that doesn't mean he sucks. Same situation with James Neal, he was also successful elsewhere, but why is the current style and construction of this team is not a good fit for him and those others right now. These are the types of intellectually honest conversations I would hope this organization is having.

Lastly, I didn't mention a thing about Monahan, so not sure where you were hoping to go with that. But I still stand very firmly on my argument that this team needs more playmakers who can turn average goal scorers into excellent ones instead of looking for goal scorers who scored because of favorable situations. Or at the very least, find a player who has the ability to create their own shot and score from a distance. Something Neal, Brouwer, Raymond and etc did not display here.

You didn't need to mention Monahan. He's the type of player you describe as undesireable as a target for trade or UFA.

As for your list, Hiller was widely seen as a win in year one. Jokipaaka was a decent player - he was just expendable (as would Russell have been). There was nothing really wrong with Hamilton as a bench sitter. Your complaints are mostly about bottom level or less guys who were acquired to fill low level roles. Mainly guys like Lack or Grossman were cheap insurance. Frankly I still think every team will have a list like that - lower level guys who were tried and didn't pan out.

And you will have to forgive me if I don't bemoan the loss of Sven and Granlund. Neither was going to make it here. And I think that Rasmus is worth more than Sven.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You didn't need to mention Monahan. He's the type of player you describe as undesireable as a target for trade or UFA.

As for your list, Hiller was widely seen as a win in year one. Jokipaaka was a decent player - he was just expendable (as would Russell have been). There was nothing really wrong with Hamilton as a bench sitter. Your complaints are mostly about bottom level or less guys who were acquired to fill low level roles. Mainly guys like Lack or Grossman were cheap insurance. Frankly I still think every team will have a list like that - lower level guys who were tried and didn't pan out.

And you will have to forgive me if I don't bemoan the loss of Sven and Granlund. Neither was going to make it here. And I think that Rasmus is worth more than Sven.

Freddie is so terrible that he isn't even playing hockey anywhere at all this year.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Karl

Freddie is so terrible that he isn't even playing hockey anywhere at all at the moment.

Lots of decent players aren't playing anywhere. It happens. But I don't think signing him was some huge mistake, given that, when he played, he didn't hurt the team and was cheap injury insurance.

Again, if the list of mistakes is Brouwer and a bunch of small contracts, I'm good.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Lots of decent players aren't playing anywhere. It happens. But I don't think signing him was some huge mistake, given that, when he played, he didn't hurt the team and was cheap injury insurance.

Again, if the list of mistakes is Brouwer and a bunch of small contracts, I'm good.

Yes he did.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Karl

Yes he did.

No he didn't. Good debate.