Edmonton is No Good VI: Chia•den•freu•de

[dash_pinched]

Spoiler!

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Itse

(The following is purely speculation, but it is a well known story that Puljujärvi has lived alone since he was 13. He moved to a bigger town to play hockey, and was apparently pretty much brought up by his hockey club....

Is this true? Who lets their 13-year-old kid go off to live on his own?




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[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is this true? Who lets their 13-year-old kid go off to live on his own?

(a) Parents who are so incapable that they can't stop the kid from leaving, in which case he's probably better off without them;

(b) Parents whose kid is so impossible that nobody can stop him from doing what he wants, in which case nobody could have helped much anyway.

I've known instances of both, and probably one or two cases of ‘All of the above’.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is this true? Who lets their 13-year-old kid go off to live on his own?

It's a very public and well known part of his background.

He's from a small northern border town of Tornio, and moved to Oulu at 13 to play hockey. Oulu is easily the biggest city in North of Finland, and has one of the best hockey organizations in the country.


All the news written about it in Finland have been very affirming, claiming he had a good support system in Oulu. And I'm sure it hasn't been a total disaster, he seems like a decent kid. But he's also very much a kid.

As a personal suspicion: Kärpät probably didn't really have 100% interest in his full development. This kid was obviously going to go overseas, so they took what they could get out of him and thought the NHL team would handle the rest. To be fair to Kärpät, any normal NHL team would probably have done the rest.

But the Oilers are not a normal organization. They don't develop players. They just play them.

[JackIsBack]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What amazes me is how media get caught up in results to the point that they seem to ignore how they're being generated.

Articles on the Hitch effect, being contenders now when the team has really been out played of late and is heading for a correction.

Under McLellan
Shot attempts 50.2%
Shots 50.9%
Scoring Chances 50.2%
High Danger Chances 51.1%
Shooting % 6.6%
Save % .919
PDO .985

Under Hitchcock
Shot attempts 48.7%
Shots 49.4%
Scoring Chances 45.3%
High Danger Chances 41.0%
Shooting % 8.9%
Save % .939
PDO 1.028

They cant' continue to play this way and win. Skid is coming ... maybe for Xmas!

Great analysis - one thing that stands out is PDO (luck)... and under McLellan (which has a bigger sample size) - it is well under 1 (bad luck) and well above 1 with Hitchcock (good luck).... if you average these numbers together, you basically get 1 (not weighted by games). Remembering that these luck numbers are all sunk costs (stealing an accounting term) - which means, that they have no bearing on what future PDO number the Oilers will obtain, they have a statistically probability of getting 1 just based on how the number is calculated. So, everyone is right, when the luck runs out at the blackjack table for the Oilers here, so will this winning streak, and since there is a greater spread away from 1 on this latest winning streak, they should fall back down to just below 500 (right where we want them to be - 9th or 10th in the division).


Great Stuff!

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by Itse

It's a very public and well known part of his background.

He's from a small northern border town of Tornio, and moved to Oulu at 13 to play hockey. Oulu is easily the biggest city in North of Finland, and has one of the best hockey organizations in the country.


All the news written about it in Finland have been very affirming, claiming he had a good support system in Oulu. And I'm sure it hasn't been a total disaster, he seems like a decent kid. But he's also very much a kid.

As a personal suspicion: Kärpät probably didn't really have 100% interest in his full development. This kid was obviously going to go overseas, so they took what they could get out of him and thought the NHL team would handle the rest. To be fair to Kärpät, any normal NHL team would probably have done the rest.

But the Oilers are not a normal organization. They don't develop players. They just play exploit them.

I fixed it.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by 1Nite

I think he was utterly devastated by being drafted by the oilers, from growing up a Flames fan, and dreaming of finally making it to his draft, then the worst thing that he could imagine,he is slowly imploding on the inside with the horrors of what happened to him, he might be saved if he was to be traded away from that mess.

Something you could say about nearly every Oiler player or prospect.

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is this true? Who lets their 13-year-old kid go off to live on his own?




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I think it happens to kids with exceptional hockey talent who don’t grow up in a place that has a team good enough for them. Hull, Orr, and probably a lot of underage stars who played Junior A got sent away to play for teams far enough away from home that they had to be billeted.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Great post, and I agree with the point.

But these HD numbers always bother me. How could McDavid's line have none? Chiasson's goal was clearly an open shot from the slot. And McDavid got in behind the D for a pseudo-breakaway once, if not twice. Those are just off the top of my head. To suggest they had zero HD chances makes no sense.

Oh, and McDavid's goal from behind the net - wasn't that off a rebound from a Draisaitl shot right in front?

Every single time I see HD scoring chance numbers, my first thought is always: that's not what I just watched.

Good post. If the data behind the metrics is inaccurate, the metrics themselves are as well.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by JackIsBack

Great analysis - one thing that stands out is PDO (luck)... and under McLellan (which has a bigger sample size) - it is well under 1 (bad luck) and well above 1 with Hitchcock (good luck).... if you average these numbers together, you basically get 1 (not weighted by games). Remembering that these luck numbers are all sunk costs (stealing an accounting term) - which means, that they have no bearing on what future PDO number the Oilers will obtain, they have a statistically probability of getting 1 just based on how the number is calculated. So, everyone is right, when the luck runs out at the blackjack table for the Oilers here, so will this winning streak, and since there is a greater spread away from 1 on this latest winning streak, they should fall back down to just below 500 (right where we want them to be - 9th or 10th in the division).


Great Stuff!

This is the E=NG thread so I’ll agree with your outcome, but I hate the notion that PDO is a measure of luck. Is Riddick luckier than Smith because he has a higher save % or just better? Are players with consistently high shooting % lucky or just really good?

Actually I generally just dislike PDO as a stat. But anyway, E=NG!

[CaptainCrunch]

All of this talk of Stats and measurements when its clear that Edmonton is just a team riding a hot goaltender and luck in this thread can only have one response

NSFW!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Itse

This isnt actually true, or at least stats don't actually support that. Both good and bad PDO's have proved to be rather sustainable, even season to season.

It's also not that bad at predicting success.

Interesting when I had looked at it before I came to the conclusion that there was a range of PDO that was sustainable year to year and anything outside those bounds was not.

[guzzy]

I just watched Gene Principe on the opening of the sportsnet broadcast. I can’t unsee that. He did some terrible Fortnite thing. I almost feel bad Edmonton has to watch that guy.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

I think it happens to kids with exceptional hockey talent who don’t grow up in a place that has a team good enough for them. Hull, Orr, and probably a lot of underage stars who played Junior A got sent away to play for teams far enough away from home that they had to be billeted.

Being billeted is a hell of a lot different than living alone.

[Scorch]

Lol @ HFoil has this poll up during the game vs the Canucks. Hockey gods had Oilers ended up losing 4-2

Spoiler!

[Scorch]

Double post

[Reggie Dunlop]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1074541872578625536

[flamesforcup]

Originally Posted by Scorch

Lol @ HFoil has this poll up during the game vs the Canucks. Hockey gods had Oilers ended up losing 4-2

Spoiler!

Such a cocky fanbase.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

https://twitter.com/user/status/1074541872578625536

[Meers]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Is this true? Who lets their 13-year-old kid go off to live on his own?

Lots of people. Interestingly, both my wife and I left home at 13 to pursue both sports and a better education.