Are the Flames Stanley Cup Contenders?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Is 6 of 10 statistically significant enough to put any link between those stats and if a team is good or not? I, personally, don't think it is. 6 of 10 is 1 better than 50/50, so it may as well be a coin flip.

Bingo's method picked from 31 teams, not 20. A given team has only a 32.26% chance of being in the top 10 by a given measurement. If you pick by coin flip or any other random method, you should expect to get 3.226 of the top 10 teams right.

So yes, it's a much stronger correlation than you assume. And that's with the limitations imposed by small sample size, since standings this early in the season are not always reflective of a team's overall quality. A five-game winning or losing streak has a much larger effect in a 25-game sample than in an 82-game season.

[Enoch Root]

Bingo's 6 out of 10 was a subjective assessment, which included Carolina, SJ, Pitt, and Vegas as top teams for whatever variant reasons might apply (Vegas last year, Carolina for CORSI, Pitt because they won cups before, etc)

[Scroopy Noopers]

Yes.

[Duffalufagus]

Late to this thread but, good gravy. Our goaltending situation is no bueno right now. You need stellar goaltending to be cup contenders.

Let’s just focus on trying to make the playoffs.

[1qqaaz]

Not until the Flames have elite goaltending.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Bingo's method picked from 31 teams, not 20. A given team has only a 32.26% chance of being in the top 10 by a given measurement. If you pick by coin flip or any other random method, you should expect to get 3.226 of the top 10 teams right.

So yes, it's a much stronger correlation than you assume. And that's with the limitations imposed by small sample size, since standings this early in the season are not always reflective of a team's overall quality. A five-game winning or losing streak has a much larger effect in a 25-game sample than in an 82-game season.

It's an averaging list of counts that is supposed to create a discussion in a topic about the Flames being contenders.

It was never sanctioned as being

a) better than standings
b) better than goal differential
c) the future
d) a secret that only I know

It was meant to look at the possibility that some teams were playing better than their results showed through 1/3 of a season, teams playing worse than their results have been through 1/3 of a season, and of course some teams that have underlying stats that just don't make sense.

That's it.

I just don't get the need to attack these stats every time they are posted. They shouldn't scare you. They are harmless counts that may or not make sense.

It's better to have higher counts on generating things then it is in giving things up. That's all folks.

What made me bring it up was the mention of Buffalo as a contender as I don't buy that at this point in the season. Since I posted the ranks they've lost something like three out of four.

Early in the year the Canucks were winning nightly but had terrible underlying stats ... they've petered out as one would expect. Carolina continues to have great numbers but not great results which make them an interesting case.

[BigBrodieFan]

Screw the stats.

I watched Kansas City win the World Series a few years ago only two years after they were selling tickets for $4.00 plus a free hotdog. Last year when I moved to Houston, the Astros won the World Series with the shortest guy in baseball as the league MVP.

Stranger things have happened in professional sports. Think of Tim Tebow and the Broncos.. The difference is- the Flames have a LOT of talent- and of course they need a little puck luck- but they have the SKILL to win. They are perfectly capable of doing so.

Hell yes they are contenders! In fact, the only thing that makes them contenders is the confidence they have in themselves, and the confidence the fans have in them.

The Stanley Cup is up for grabs and I wanna see our boys hold it high- THIS season!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's an averaging list of counts that is supposed to create a discussion in a topic about the Flames being contenders.

It was never sanctioned as being

a) better than standings
b) better than goal differential
c) the future
d) a secret that only I know

It was meant to look at the possibility that some teams were playing better than their results showed through 1/3 of a season, teams playing worse than their results have been through 1/3 of a season, and of course some teams that have underlying stats that just don't make sense.

That's it.

I just don't get the need to attack these stats every time they are posted. They shouldn't scare you. They are harmless counts that may or not make sense.

It's better to have higher counts on generating things then it is in giving things up. That's all folks.

What made me bring it up was the mention of Buffalo as a contender as I don't buy that at this point in the season. Since I posted the ranks they've lost something like three out of four.

Early in the year the Canucks were winning nightly but had terrible underlying stats ... they've petered out as one would expect. Carolina continues to have great numbers but not great results which make them an interesting case.

No one is scared of them Bingo. You post them to add more to the conversation (I assume). And people then discuss them. I personally see no correlation with what you posted, vs what I believe from watching the games, so my comments attempted to refute them.

But you clearly are defensive about this, so I am done talking about it. And my apologies for rarely agreeing with them.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by BigBrodieFan

Screw the stats.

I watched Kansas City win the World Series a few years ago only two years after they were selling tickets for $4.00 plus a free hotdog. Last year when I moved to Houston, the Astros won the World Series with the shortest guy in baseball as the league MVP.

Stranger things have happened in professional sports. Think of Tim Tebow and the Broncos.. The difference is- the Flames have a LOT of talent- and of course they need a little puck luck- but they have the SKILL to win. They are perfectly capable of doing so.

Hell yes they are contenders! In fact, the only thing that makes them contenders is the confidence they have in themselves, and the confidence the fans have in them.

The Stanley Cup is up for grabs and I wanna see our boys hold it high- THIS season!

Hell yeah!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by BigBrodieFan

Screw the stats.

I watched Kansas City win the World Series a few years ago only two years after they were selling tickets for $4.00 plus a free hotdog. Last year when I moved to Houston, the Astros won the World Series with the shortest guy in baseball as the league MVP.

Stranger things have happened in professional sports. Think of Tim Tebow and the Broncos.. The difference is- the Flames have a LOT of talent- and of course they need a little puck luck- but they have the SKILL to win. They are perfectly capable of doing so.

Hell yes they are contenders! In fact, the only thing that makes them contenders is the confidence they have in themselves, and the confidence the fans have in them.

The Stanley Cup is up for grabs and I wanna see our boys hold it high- THIS season!

Duhatchek making a similar point on 960 this morning: with today's parity, anything can happen - of course the Flames are contenders (if the goaltending is there).

[stone hands]

I think ppl on cp have stats aversion because the Hartley flames succeeded in spite of them one year(despite being terrible for most of his tenure), and then had the inverse problem with gulutzan where they looked good on the stats line but were a boring futile team

So you go from "advanced stats don't mean a hill of beans, this amazing comeback team will not regress!" - which ultimately they did, to "they have great advanced stats but are boring and only look dominant during their yearly 10 game winning streak"

It's basically highly emotional people saying I told you so because the team they're very passionate about has defied advanced stats projections in both directions

[jlh2640]

No, they are an up and coming team. But to me have not proven anything yet

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

No one is scared of them Bingo. You post them to add more to the conversation (I assume). And people then discuss them. I personally see no correlation with what you posted, vs what I believe from watching the games, so my comments attempted to refute them.

But you clearly are defensive about this, so I am done talking about it. And my apologies for rarely agreeing with them.

Wasn't directed at you at all ... sorry for giving you that feeling.

Others though seem to be very upset whenever underlying stats come up and make it a point going after them when no statement of value has been placed on them in the first place.

As you pointed out, I thought it would add to the discussion of contenders vs pretenders 1/3 of the way into a season.

When someone goes to the pain to analyze tossing a coin vs a simple statement of mine suggesting 6 of the 10 teams at the top are pretty good hockey teams it becomes kind of obvious there's an axe to grind.

[Boreal]

Originally Posted by stone hands

I think ppl on cp have stats aversion because the Hartley flames succeeded in spite of them one year(despite being terrible for most of his tenure), and then had the inverse problem with gulutzan where they looked good on the stats line but were a boring futile team

So you go from "advanced stats don't mean a hill of beans, this amazing comeback team will not regress!" - which ultimately they did, to "they have great advanced stats but are boring and only look dominant during their yearly 10 game winning streak"

It's basically highly emotional people saying I told you so because the team they're very passionate about has defied advanced stats projections in both directions

Don't forget 'mentally weak' to describe Gulatzan's tenure.

[Roof-Daddy]

Imagine if any of the following happen throughout the rest of the season and throughout the remainder of the Flames contention window:

1. Neal re-discovers his game/scoring touch
2. Bennett adds offense to his arsenal
3. Jankowski turns into anything between Backlund 'Lite' to Backlund 'Heavy'
4. The crop of 4 strong young Dmen develop into legit top 4, or even top pairing quality Dmen
5. The Flames discover/develop at worst a goalie capable of putting up league average numbers, or at best Vezina quality numbers.

They don't have any of that right now, and are already on the cusp of contending.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Imagine if any of the following happen throughout the rest of the season and throughout the remainder of the Flames contention window:

1. Neal re-discovers his game/scoring touch
2. Bennett adds offense to his arsenal
3. Jankowski turns into anything between Backlund 'Lite' to Backlund 'Heavy'
4. The crop of 4 strong young Dmen develop into legit top 4, or even top pairing quality Dmen
5. The Flames discover/develop at worst a goalie capable of putting up league average numbers, or at best Vezina quality numbers.

They don't have any of that right now, and are already on the cusp of contending.

Don't look now but Jankowski starting to play rather well.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by BigBrodieFan

Screw the stats.

I watched Kansas City win the World Series a few years ago only two years after they were selling tickets for $4.00 plus a free hotdog. Last year when I moved to Houston, the Astros won the World Series with the shortest guy in baseball as the league MVP.

Stranger things have happened in professional sports. Think of Tim Tebow and the Broncos.. The difference is- the Flames have a LOT of talent- and of course they need a little puck luck- but they have the SKILL to win. They are perfectly capable of doing so.

Hell yes they are contenders! In fact, the only thing that makes them contenders is the confidence they have in themselves, and the confidence the fans have in them.

The Stanley Cup is up for grabs and I wanna see our boys hold it high- THIS season!

I’d like to just add Leicester City winning the premier league as well. History has shown that if a team has supreme confidence+talent+effort there’s nothing that can stop said team. This team has swagger and they seem to have it in spades this season. They expect to win and they are pumping teams like I haven’t seen the Flames ever do. They expect to win and they have been so far. The confidence from our young players is such an amazing sign, along with Brodie. I can go on and on but basically I’m thrilled about this seasons start. Not only is this team good right now but they are set up very well for the future.

[TheIronMaiden]

Just to add some predictions.

Hockey reference has the flames at a 6.5% chance at winning the cup after 1000 simulations. Maybe more interestingly they have them at a 93.8% chance at making the playoffs.

Chance at winning the cup after 1000 simulations

Leafs: 13.4%
Lightening: 10.7%
Predators: 9.3%
Avalanche: 9.2%
Jets: 7.3%
Flames: 6.5%
Capitols: 5.6%
Sabers: 5.1%

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

[Duffalufagus]

Not until I see at least average goaltending for a 20 game stretch. You cannot challenge for the Stanley Cup with below average goaltending. Impossible.

[Bourque's Twin]

Should I have started the thread now? 1st in the West.