Alberta Politics Thread v2

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

It's not the drop off that's important, is that the recovery is incredibly muted and has stalled. The trend line from the 80's would be a much higher growth rate as Alberta's economy was REALLY booming then.

Market access is a problem that the NDP should have been working much harder on solving a long time ago. Without a doubt they've destroyed private sector job growth in Alberta, the numbers just don't lie. They can't be booted out of office fast enough.

Here's another great chart showing the comparable recoveries after the even larger oil price driop in 2008.

You're missing the point. You can't compare trend lines when the one resource the province relies on isn't as valuable or isn't increasing. Oil is not skyrocketing like it was in previous examples. The party didn't fix the economy after the last recession, oil price increases did. That's not the fault of the NDP. They didn't crush private industry in Alberta that's such a silly statement. If oil started increasing in value to the same level as other time periods there would be no issues.

Oil prices and oversupply crushed Alberta's economy. That's it. If oil stayed at a similar supply level and the price remained at $110/barrel no one would notice anything the NDP has done.

Just like they ignored all the idiotic things the PC party did for decades.

Your right the PC party should have predicted how much bad this oil crash would be on day 1 and had pipelines made before anyone realized how bad this would all be.

Let's go one step further, the PC party should have had this access problem taken care of long before the NDP party ever came into power. They had decades to get it done.

If you want to blame the federal government for the not getting the pipeline through and ignoring the issues in this province I certainly understand that but this position that the NDP have caused all the problems in this province is just wrong.

Again I'll vote for for the party that I think has the most beneficial platform. Picking a side and trying to blame all the problems on the other team is pathetic. The PC party was ok but made a mess. The NDP have been ok, but are also making a mess.

[wireframe]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

It's not the drop off that's important, is that the recovery is incredibly muted and has stalled. The trend line from the 80's would be a much higher growth rate as Alberta's economy was REALLY booming then.

Market access is a problem that the NDP should have been working much harder on solving a long time ago. Without a doubt they've destroyed private sector job growth in Alberta, the numbers just don't lie. They can't be booted out of office fast enough.

Here's another great chart showing the comparable recoveries after the even larger oil price driop in 2008.

You're trying too hard to blame the NDP here. This graph shows that the economic recovery is slower than in the 80's, after a much larger initial drop. I agree that the reason for that slowness is probably sustained oil price depression, which is caused in large part by lack of pipeline access.

Why are blaming the Alberta NDP for that? If it was a problem that should have been addressed long ago, then it's on a previous government. If it's a new problem, the graph shouldn't show it yet.

This pipeline will take a long time to build. Alberta is going to struggle with an oil price differential for years, at least until the line is complete. It should have been started a decade ago. It's too bad that the government didn't push the project back then but it wasn't nearly as urgent and foresight is difficult for all of our governments.

[ZedMan]

For comparison's sake, WCS/WTI over both recessions:

[GaiJin]

Originally Posted by wireframe

You're trying too hard to blame the NDP here. This graph shows that the economic recovery is slower than in the 80's, after a much larger initial drop. I agree that the reason for that slowness is probably sustained oil price depression, which is caused in large part by lack of pipeline access.

Why are blaming the Alberta NDP for that? If it was a problem that should have been addressed long ago, then it's on a previous government. If it's a new problem, the graph shouldn't show it yet.

This pipeline will take a long time to build. Alberta is going to struggle with an oil price differential for years, at least until the line is complete. It should have been started a decade ago. It's too bad that the government didn't push the project back then but it wasn't nearly as urgent and foresight is difficult for all of our governments.

Because of their ideology, they have been twiddling their thumbs for the last 3 years on the file and now painted into a corner on the issue, Notley trying to reach for pragmatism is taking cues from Kenny on it. Lets face it, they are a lost government, and Kenny is already calling the shots now that the pain is real and engine is stalled. The best thing Notley could do right now is just step aside and let Kenny take the reigns, no matter how you try and lessen the uselessness of her leadership, she has failed this province, in a huge way.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by GaiJin

Because of their ideology, they have been twiddling their thumbs for the last 3 years on the file and now painted into a corner on the issue, Notley trying to reach for pragmatism is taking cues from Kenny on it. Lets face it, they are a lost government, and Kenny is already calling the shots now that the pain is real and engine is stalled. The best thing Notley could do right now is just step aside and let Kenny take the reigns, no matter how you try and lessen the uselessness of her leadership, she has failed this province, in a huge way.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GaiJin

Because of their ideology, they have been twiddling their thumbs for the last 3 years on the file and now painted into a corner on the issue, Notley trying to reach for pragmatism is taking cues from Kenny on it. Lets face it, they are a lost government, and Kenny is already calling the shots now that the pain is real and engine is stalled. The best thing Notley could do right now is just step aside and let Kenny take the reigns, no matter how you try and lessen the uselessness of her leadership, she has failed this province, in a huge way.

Never going to happen, and a government with a majority is never a lame duck government no matter how doomed they are in the next election. Instead they'll jam through as much legislation as they can and try to make it bullet proof so it can't be removed easily.

[GullFoss]

So this is finally happening:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...cuts-1.4929283

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm interested in the wrapper around that announcement. I expect that she's going to last the Federal Government for its slow to no help.


I would also expect that this announcement will trigger a massive lay off spree over the next couple of weeks.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'm interested in the wrapper around that announcement. I expect that she's going to last the Federal Government for its slow to no help.

I would also expect that this announcement will trigger a massive lay off spree over the next couple of weeks.

Why would you think this would trigger layoffs?

Its negative consequences are reducing future investment but short term it holds up price. I would expect Companies to be less likely to layoff as this eases pressure on cash flows.

[SeeGeeWhy]

I bet it’s a royalty credit. No way they get into the circus of trying to set a price...

[GGG]

I don’t think a royalty credit helps, it encourages more production which is the opposite of what we want.

I see a 5% production cut given how that’s been floated for the last week or two by all parties. This would allow the 35 million barrel back log to be worked through in about 6 months. Maybe it’s a 10% production cut but that would be really extreme.

[White Out 403]

What a great leader.

[Dion]

Glad to see she followed through on the advice given to her by the UCP and Alberta parties.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Dion

Glad to see she followed through on the advice given to her by the UCP and Alberta parties.

Advice?

[Weitz]

8.25% production cut to total Alberta production.

Will be interesting to see what happens from here.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Advice?

Yes.

During the past few weeks in the AB legislature question period, both parties have suggested on numerous occasions that she and her party should cut back on the production of oil.

[White Out 403]

Originally Posted by Dion

Yes.

During the past few weeks in the AB legislature question period, both parties have suggested on numerous occasions that she and her party should cut back on the production of oil.

Sigh.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Dion

Glad to see she followed through on the advice given to her by the UCP and Alberta parties.

You can’t give her any credit can you. She shown herself to be quite pragmatic and willing to listen to experts. If she did it because the UCP said to then she is dumb. She did it because ecists who are specialists in the field indicated that the harm caused by this approach is offset by the benefits

[Dion]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Sigh.

[GGG]

10,000 barrel small producer exemption average based on previous six highest months of production. Forecast to improve diff by $4. So all producers make more under this arrangement. The losers are the integrated companies and refiners.