Matthew Tkachuk’s Next Contract

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If Nylander doesn't get signed and has to truck off to Europe, that sure doesn't help Matt's cause. He can see how playing hardball with a talented team plays out.

We’re not in the same position offensively as the Leafs to have a guy like Tkachuk sit out the same. Remove him from our line up and we’re not nearly as deep as we think we are anymore. You need a player who can drive offensive production apart from our 1st line which would be pretty tough to break up at this point.

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

People thinking he’s going to sign at the “Gio Cap” for the good of the team need to pass me some of what they’re smoking. Comparing what an absolute stud will get paid next year to by that time 3 and 4 year old contracts is actually crazy talk. The number probably starts with an 8 and if we’re lucky it starts with a 7.

He can both sign at the Gio Cap, and the contract AAV can start with a 7 or an 8.

Unless you believe that the Gio Cap outlives Giordano himself? Or that the cap refers to the AAV, and not actual salary, which could be argued but I do not believe that to be that case... it wouldn't make sense.

[Stay Golden]

Currently

Johnny 6.7
Monahan 6.3
Neal 5.7 does Treliving try to dump it early?
Lindholm 4.85

Tkachuk you would think for the team harmony of J & M that he doesn't receive from Treliving more than they are at.
My assumption Chucky gets 5.8 - 6.2 on a 6 year deal.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Currently

Johnny 6.7
Monahan 6.3
Neal 5.7 does Treliving try to dump it early?
Lindholm 4.85

Tkachuk you would think for the team harmony of J & M that he doesn't receive from Treliving more than they are at.
My assumption Chucky gets 5.8 - 6.2 on a 6 year deal.

Literally....not a chance.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

We’re not in the same position offensively as the Leafs to have a guy like Tkachuk sit out the same. Remove him from our line up and we’re not nearly as deep as we think we are anymore. You need a player who can drive offensive production apart from our 1st line which would be pretty tough to break up at this point.

All true. It's still not a good sign for Tkachuk.

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Literally....not a chance.

Well, I hope Calgary isn't as stupid as some teams and over-signs a player who is a RFA.

Sometimes it takes teams like Toronto (Nylander) to try and fix a stupid GM's precedent (Edmonton).

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

He can both sign at the Gio Cap, and the contract AAV can start with a 7 or an 8.

Unless you believe that the Gio Cap outlives Giordano himself? Or that the cap refers to the AAV, and not actual salary, which could be argued but I do not believe that to be that case... it wouldn't make sense.

You can structure it however you like I was referring to the AAV anyways. But yeah people thinking that he’ll sign for anything less then a 7 AAV are out to lunch. He could have a career ending injury at any point. It would be irresponsible of him to not get as much garaunteed dollars as he can for as long as he can. It’s very easy for us as fans to wish guys sign cheap contracts to help the teams and vilify players who go for the big dollars but these are guys who have no idea when the music is going to stop for them. I say go out and get your money!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Currently

Johnny 6.7
Monahan 6.3
Neal 5.7 does Treliving try to dump it early?
Lindholm 4.85

Tkachuk you would think for the team harmony of J & M that he doesn't receive from Treliving more than they are at.
My assumption Chucky gets 5.8 - 6.2 on a 6 year deal.

I doubt that. For team harmony, Gaudreau and Monahan should understand that they signed at a different time, and players do have their own interests in mind.

[the-rasta-masta]

If Tkachuk keeps playing like this, I don't care what we have to pay him. Lock him up for 8 @ 8.5m and it will be a steal down the road regardless.

[iggy_oi]

Considering Tkachuk is an RFA I think Tre will find a way to keep the cap hit under $7M, it might mean a shorter term than most would like but I don’t see Tre deviating much from how he’s approached previous extension negotiations. It’ll probably also take longer to get done than anyone will like(it’s a process) but it’ll get done and it’ll be a fair deal for both sides.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Team has all the leverage. That’s the point of RFA status

Say the Flames offer 6.5, and Tkachuk demands 7.5.
Tkachuk’s option is to sit out until he gets what he wants.
About 12 games in, that 1MM difference is gone. Will the Flames cave? May depend how they are doing.

Okay, so say nobody caves, and it is about the earnings over multiple years, and Tkachuk still isn’t fine with 6.5? Then Tkachuk’s option is to sit out a whole year. Throwing away 6.5 M today so you can make 1 MM extra will take over 6 years to pay off.

That’s not leverage for the player.

So no, you don’t just throw 8-9 million at him just to get it done

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Team has all the leverage. That’s the point of RFA status

Say the Flames offer 6.5, and Tkachuk demands 7.5.
Tkachuk’s option is to sit out until he gets what he wants.
About 12 games in, that 1MM difference is gone. Will the Flames cave? May depend how they are doing.

Okay, so say nobody caves, and it is about the earnings over multiple years, and Tkachuk still isn’t fine with 6.5? Then Tkachuk’s option is to sit out a whole year. Throwing away 6.5 M today so you can make 1 MM extra will take over 6 years to pay off.

That’s not leverage for the player.

So no, you don’t just throw 8-9 million at him just to get it done

Players have lots of leverage. They can sit out. They aren't going to starve.

They can sign one years deals and leave as UFA because they aren't pleased with the team.

Teams don't want to piss off their best player(s).

Players don't necessarily look at money lost and lament it like you think they do. When there's a principle at stake, the actual dollars may not matter so much.

If RFA players had no leverage, you wouldn't be seeing the contracts you seen.

Tkachuk sitting out would be devastating to the team and the fans.

Gio's internal cap is really non-existent at his point. It's just that no one really deserved more. Until know likely.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Team has all the leverage. That’s the point of RFA status

Say the Flames offer 6.5, and Tkachuk demands 7.5.
Tkachuk’s option is to sit out until he gets what he wants.
About 12 games in, that 1MM difference is gone. Will the Flames cave? May depend how they are doing.

Okay, so say nobody caves, and it is about the earnings over multiple years, and Tkachuk still isn’t fine with 6.5? Then Tkachuk’s option is to sit out a whole year. Throwing away 6.5 M today so you can make 1 MM extra will take over 6 years to pay off.

This doesn't work if it's over 7 years? 12 games is nothing in that time frame.

7.5Mx7=52.5M
6.5Mx7=45.5M

Even if he sat out an entire year but got the first contract, he would make 45M...

But even if he sits out that 12 games, an injury happens to the Flames top line, and the Flames go 0-12? It's right back all on to Tkachuk with full leverage in that scenario.

[madmike]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Currently

Johnny 6.7
Monahan 6.3
Neal 5.7 does Treliving try to dump it early?
Lindholm 4.85

Tkachuk you would think for the team harmony of J & M that he doesn't receive from Treliving more than they are at.
My assumption Chucky gets 5.8 - 6.2 on a 6 year deal.

I think they’ll be lucky to get him under 8. His agent will likely use Marner as a measuring stick and right now it’s hard to see Marner getting less than 9-10. I think that puts Tkachuk in the 7.5-8.5 range likely.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Considering Tkachuk is an RFA I think Tre will find a way to keep the cap hit under $7M, it might mean a shorter term than most would like but I don’t see Tre deviating much from how he’s approached previous extension negotiations. It’ll probably also take longer to get done than anyone will like(it’s a process) but it’ll get done and it’ll be a fair deal for both sides.

A short term deal is not in the best interests of the Flames. Sure it's cheaper now, but he'll be a UFA that much sooner, and that have to pay big money for an 8 year term, which is guaranteed to stink by the time he's older.

Players like to be UFA's at a time when they are young enough to command an 8 year contract. It guarantees them big money in their later years.

Now teams can refuse to give them that contract, but someone will if they are UFA's.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Stay Golden

Currently

Johnny 6.7
Monahan 6.3
Neal 5.7 does Treliving try to dump it early?
Lindholm 4.85

Tkachuk you would think for the team harmony of J & M that he doesn't receive from Treliving more than they are at.
My assumption Chucky gets 5.8 - 6.2 on a 6 year deal.

I would suggest the only way he gets that type of cap hit is if it's a short term deal.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

This doesn't work if it's over 7 years? 12 games is nothing in that time frame.

7.5Mx7=52.5M
6.5Mx7=45.5M

Even if he sat out an entire year but got the first contract, he would make 45M...

But even if he sits out that 12 games, an injury happens to the Flames top line, and the Flames go 0-12? It's right back all on to Tkachuk with full leverage in that scenario.

You can make the numbers break even, but is the RFA looking to win the battle for dollars 7 years out? And give up a year of playing? Doesn’t smell right to me

Sure, you can cook a scenario that a, say, 12 game holdout backfires on the team. As a GM I would hopefully have a team built that is better than that. And would assess that risk. Likely worth it. And still not full leverage for the player.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Team has all the leverage. That’s the point of RFA status

Say the Flames offer 6.5, and Tkachuk demands 7.5.
Tkachuk’s option is to sit out until he gets what he wants.
About 12 games in, that 1MM difference is gone. Will the Flames cave? May depend how they are doing.

Okay, so say nobody caves, and it is about the earnings over multiple years, and Tkachuk still isn’t fine with 6.5? Then Tkachuk’s option is to sit out a whole year. Throwing away 6.5 M today so you can make 1 MM extra will take over 6 years to pay off.

That’s not leverage for the player.

So no, you don’t just throw 8-9 million at him just to get it done

Confusing post. You used way too low of numbers in your example, which is fine if you were purposely just making them up, I guess. But then you went and made it seem like you were using your numbers to say that you don't just throw 8-9mil at him to get it done, like it's way too much considering the leverage the team has.

Okay, but no one is saying you throw him large money to get it done, they're saying he may very well end up being worth $8-9mil AFTER a tough negotiation with Treliving. In fact barring a major injury or drop off in production I don't see a path to a sub $8mil contract unless you sign him for 5years or less which would be a monumental mistake.

[Gaskal]

I think it will come in at the maximum of 8 years, at an AAV in the mid to high 7's.

Considering some of the other contracts handed out to the team's best players and top scorers in other markets, that is a bargain.

[Kipper_3434]

Tre really screwed the pooch by offering Tkachuck 4.5 aav in the off season. Reportedly the tkachuk camp wanted 7.
4.5 is not a serious offer, why even bother?
Should've came in much stronger and anticipated tkachuks bump in production (like even the most casual of fans did.) If that 7m aav is still on the table, we better be getting an announcement soon. Last thing we need is our MVP holding out, going to arbitration / signing a bridge. 2c