Mike Smith's... woes? He blows? Eating crows? Who knows! (Also David Rittich exists!)

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by bax

Also, this thread title comes off as more than a tad bit ridiculous to me.

Sorry, Scorp I don't mean to call you out, but for someone studying to be a journalist I think it would be beneficial to take a deep breathe, step away from the situation, calm down, and then evaluate.

What is dumping Smith for a 7th round pick going to accomplish? It means we have to call up one of our struggling AHL goalies? Who are both currently injured?

Realistically what needs to happen is that Smith gets a week off from game time and Peters gives the net to Rittich. Start him 4-6 games in a row and then re-evaluate then. So on and so forth. Smith has sucked, but there is no need to run him out of town. He's a greater asset hoping he can tweak his game in practice with some significant time off and find his stride again than dumping him for nothing.

You had no need to call him out.
Scorp should be able to put aside real life and post here as a passionate fan. Doesn't matter what he's doing on the outside.

[TheScorpion]

Just saw your post, bax. I don't think you accurately captured my thought process when starting this thread -- it's not like I started it on the back of one single, bad goal. The Lehkonen goal was but the final straw in a string of legendarily poor performances by this team's #1 goalie.

Also, c'mon, man. I'm stressed as heck, I have a billion midterms and essays right now, I have work with the campus paper, it's all on top of me. This website allows me to get away from that. Don't get me wrong -- as much as some people like to say otherwise, I really, really try to make good posts and add to discussion. But at the same time, it's really nice to come here and be able to exercise some real passion after a day of restraint. I'm not handing this thread into the newspaper's editorial staff.

Anyway, I get what you're trying to say, bax -- "think through your arguments." And I'll admit, I get heated during games -- it's something I'll have to work on. (I have successfully been able to temper this passion in a formal setting thus far in my university career.) But not only do I approach this fan forum differently than I do my job and classwork, but I also did think through the idea for this thread for a while before ultimately posting it.

Anyway, that's all.

[FlamesAddiction]

Kind of off on a tangent, but I would love to know what the scouting report and projection was for Rittich when they identified him as someone to sign. Maybe I am wrong, but I don’t recall that he was sought after by other teams, but so far he is doing well by at least sticking as an NHL back-up.

He seems to be improving and could be a classic late bloomer. Too early to tell for sure. Was he ever ranked by one of the independent scouting services when he was draft eligible? Who is our scout that would have been watching him in the Czech league?

But yeah, goalies are so hard to project.

[Trojan97]

A reminder for anyone who hasn't seen these stats posted. I read it in a thread on here and it was apparently taken from flamesnation....

Since Smith returned from injury on Mar. 11, Smith has started 21 games. He’s 7-13-1 with a 3.46 goals against average, .878 save percentage and .889 even strength save percentage. Of the 58 goaltenders who have played 400+ minutes in that span, he’s 52nd in goals against average, 58th in save percentage and 58th in even strength save percentage.

I was perusing goalie stats and found some other interesting stats that I wanted to share as well....

Smith has 5 RBS ("really bad starts" aka save% under .850) so far. He's tied with Matt Murray for worst in the league. Of the 70 goalies in the league who have started a game, 61/70 have had two or fewer RBS. It's fair to say Smith is WAY out on an island there (he had 9 in 55 starts last season). Rittich has had one this year.

Last two stats I found interesting about Smith:
#1- Quality starts is defined on HR as having a save% above the league average in a start. If a goalie doesn't face more than 20 shots, it's defined as having a save% above .885. Smith only has 4 of these QS in 13 games. The only goalies with double digit starts to have fewer is Matt Murray, (Saros has started 9 games and only has 3). Rittich has 5 QS in 6 overall starts.

#2- "Goals saved above average"- This looks at a goaltenders goals prevented given the number of shots faced and his save percentage. It then compares it to the league average save percentage based on the same number of shots faced. Smith is far and away the worst in the league in this category (63 goalies qualified) at -11.52. The next worst are -8.31 (Murray), -7.65 (Allen), -7.08 (Quick), -6.93 (Pickard), -.6.39 (Jones). For reference, there are 33 goalies with a number above zero. Rittich is 13th just behind Antti Raanta at 4.95. I realize this doesn't take into account the quality of the shots faced but it continues to paint an absolutely ugly picture of Smith that we have all seen. Ben Scrivens 2015 season in Edmonton is the only goalie season even close to being as bad as the pace Smith is currently on in this statistical category in the last decade.

These stats can easily be found at: https://www.hockey-reference.com/lea...9_goalies.html

For the people saying, "what are you going to do if you waive/move Smith?". The answer is that literally any other goalie in the NHL and a handful of AHLers, many of which who would come dirt cheap, would be able to replicate or better his numbers right now. He's shown absolutely no hints that he is going to find his game again and the team would be better off with literally any other goalie in the league right now. With Rittich playing so well right now it is an ABSOLUTE no-brainer that you go to him and work on a replacement for Smith. Giving him any more starts is absolutely not an option anymore.

[GioforPM]

I'm not asking "what do you do/who replaces" because I think there's nobody better out there. I am asking because I don't see a trade. No one wants him. And if you send him down, the goalies who would come up are both hurt. If you send him down and try to trade picks or whatever for another goalie, or sign a goalie whose languishing in free agency, you have to fit them and Smith's unburied salary under the cap.

So the only immediate solution I see is to put him at the end of the bench.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Would you rather...

A.) Start Smith for 60+ games this season
B.) Endure one more season of Glen Gulutzan at the helm
C.) Endure two more seasons of Dave Cameron and the Brouwerplay

Smith is playing bad. But those other two teams were much worse to watch. At least this team is entertaining and keeps most games close. We just need reliable goaltending from BOTH our starter and backup for once.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not asking "what do you do/who replaces" because I think there's nobody better out there. I am asking because I don't see a trade. No one wants him. And if you send him down, the goalies who would come up are both hurt. If you send him down and try to trade picks or whatever for another goalie, or sign a goalie whose languishing in free agency, you have to fit them and Smith's unburied salary under the cap.

So the only immediate solution I see is to put him at the end of the bench.

Wasn't meant as a direct shot at you by any means. I just think that question is being asked by alot of fans still (I've seen it mentioned by friends of mine in conversation) and most don't realize how bad Smith's game truly is right now in comparison to goalies around the league. The reality of the situation, as you said, is absolutely that they will need to find a taker for his contract unless they plan on trading for someone making peanuts and that likely isn't easy at this point in the season.

[GranteedEV]

I'm willing to give Smith a chance to be the true backup hoping he finds his game with time off, but if hypothetically we cut bait, I would elect to see if a Rittich-Hammond tandem (With Rittich getting the bulk of the starts) could work.

There are definitely some areas Smith needs to clean up technically (like, does he not realize how deep in his net he is playing) but I suspect the five-hole issue is a physical one due to multiple groin injuries and old age.

[SmoggyFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Keep him as a backup, nobody is going to take him and sending him to the AHL is useless.


I figure this team could be 6 to 8 points better with good goaltending. The team in front of him more often of not is clearly the better team on the ice.


I can't believe that the rest of the team isn't incredibly frustrated.

They probably are, behind closed doors. Remember that argument between Neal and Smith on Reddit?

[edslunch]

I think, certainly not based on current facts, that Smith could still play an important role on this team later in the season, but he needs a looooooong timeout

[Locke]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I think, certainly not based on current facts, that Smith could still play an important role on this team later in the season, but he needs a looooooong timeout

Very true.

Man, when that goal went in for the Habs you could hear the air escaping from the arena.

[David Struch]

Originally Posted by edslunch

but he needs a looooooong timeout

So, if Mike Smith were to take an extended breather...

David Rittich and Nick Schneider could probably suffice until Jon Gillies, Tyler Parsons and Mason McDonald return, with each taking a spot at the end of the bench now & then.

[bax]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Just saw your post, bax. I don't think you accurately captured my thought process when starting this thread -- it's not like I started it on the back of one single, bad goal. The Lehkonen goal was but the final straw in a string of legendarily poor performances by this team's #1 goalie.

Also, c'mon, man. I'm stressed as heck, I have a billion midterms and essays right now, I have work with the campus paper, it's all on top of me. This website allows me to get away from that. Don't get me wrong -- as much as some people like to say otherwise, I really, really try to make good posts and add to discussion. But at the same time, it's really nice to come here and be able to exercise some real passion after a day of restraint. I'm not handing this thread into the newspaper's editorial staff.

Anyway, I get what you're trying to say, bax -- "think through your arguments." And I'll admit, I get heated during games -- it's something I'll have to work on. (I have successfully been able to temper this passion in a formal setting thus far in my university career.) But not only do I approach this fan forum differently than I do my job and classwork, but I also did think through the idea for this thread for a while before ultimately posting it.

Anyway, that's all.

It’s all good Scorp. When it’s all said and done you are one my favorite posters and I genuinely do appreciate the usual effort and thought you put into your posts.

I get it. I’ve been there too. We are all passionate fans and this place is a good tool to use for communicating and venting our frustration.

I just disagree with the “needs to be traded immediately” take of yours. It’s just sensationalism to me. The way I see it that solves none of our problems and probably hurts us in the long run.

What needs to happen immediately is that Rittich needs some consecutive games so we can see what we have in him.

We are all frustrated with Smith, but enough with the trade him now at any cost or put him on waivers sensationalism.

I can’t believe people are honestly suggesting dropping him for Nick Schneider as opposed to relegating him to back up for the time being and letting him work on his game in practice.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Trojan97

Wasn't meant as a direct shot at you by any means. I just think that question is being asked by alot of fans still (I've seen it mentioned by friends of mine in conversation) and most don't realize how bad Smith's game truly is right now in comparison to goalies around the league. The reality of the situation, as you said, is absolutely that they will need to find a taker for his contract unless they plan on trading for someone making peanuts and that likely isn't easy at this point in the season.

I don't think many are doubting he's been bad.

The real question to me is does he stay bad? Get worse? Recover to his career averages? Recover to last season's start?

Just as he was likely to come off his hot start last year, I think it's reasonable to assume he'll regain some of his form. I am starting to wonder if that recovery isn't enough to be a starting goaltender any more.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Call it sensationalism if you must. Or knee jerk.

On the other hand, here are some facts
- Smith is 37. Nobody beats Father Time
- He has not consistently played well since January. (!)
- The team is a hair short of a quarter of the way in to the season and he has already cost them several points
- Smith has been the worst starting goalie in the NHL this year. That is alarmingly bad.

Many athletes get injured, never fully recover from that injury, and have to retire. Is that a possibility that it is what we are witnessing?

It appears he has built up some currency in the Treliving bank account, which has earned him the opportunity to work out of a funk. But he hasn’t been able to do that. Maybe Treliving is afraid Smith will yell at him too, like he does with the rest of the team. Who knows.

But is there actually any argument in favour of keeping Smith, and not finding a way to cut ties, that is not primarily based on hope? And do you want an organization having hope be the strategy?

Don’t get me wrong, maybe it is sensationalistic as you say. But there is no real strong evidence that the team would be better with Smith than with pretty much any other goalie period. Just hope. So they should be at least seriously looking at a different option.

Sometimes hope pans out. Sometimes veterans reach the end of their career and the body can’t do what the mind thinks it can.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Also bax in fairness to Scorp you reference ‘needs to be traded’ and Scorp just said ‘needs to be replaced’ and basically said they can’t afford to keep starting him.

You saying Rittich needs a few games is technically consistent with the OP, basically replacing Smith as starter

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think many are doubting he's been bad.

The real question to me is does he stay bad? Get worse? Recover to his career averages? Recover to last season's start?

Just as he was likely to come off his hot start last year, I think it's reasonable to assume he'll regain some of his form. I am starting to wonder if that recovery isn't enough to be a starting goaltender any more.

‘Starting to wonder’. Jesus

[Matty81]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

- Smith is 37. Nobody beats Father Time

For me this is it. The... "low miles" argument Treliving and co have been making doesn't work. I get that you can build up injuries and wear and tear on your body over time but you can't stop the decline in reflexes and healing that occurs when you get older regardless of how little you play.



It looks to me like Smith is hitting that age wall. His confidence is low for sure and you can see that in his positioning but it's the slower reflexes that I think are the root cause.



I really think they could be in trouble here long term. Love the Rittich story but what they've done by sticking with Smith until he basically broke is now heap loads of pressure on Rittich. If they'd gone with the play as long as you're winning approach I think it would have kept the pressure of being "the guy" off of him.


But here's hoping he can handle the pressure this year, gonna be interesting to see what happens tonight.

[Trojan97]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I don't think many are doubting he's been bad.

The real question to me is does he stay bad? Get worse? Recover to his career averages? Recover to last season's start?

Just as he was likely to come off his hot start last year, I think it's reasonable to assume he'll regain some of his form. I am starting to wonder if that recovery isn't enough to be a starting goaltender any more.

It stands to reason that he is probably not truly the historically bad puckstopper that he has been to date this season. With that said, at his age and with his history of injuries I don't know how anyone on the coaching staff or management could make the call to continue forward for everyone to find out the truth. We've seen this deflating, untimely goaltending song and dance time and time again in the last handful of years. The organization can't afford to be wrong again should Smith's career actually be toast. You simply cannot waste this year with how good the rest of the team is. Move on now with Rittich and _____ (hopefully a trade for a backup) and Smith will be a distant memory by the end of the season.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Matty81

For me this is it. The... "low miles" argument Treliving and co have been making doesn't work. I get that you can build up injuries and wear and tear on your body over time but you can't stop the decline in reflexes and healing that occurs when you get older regardless of how little you play.



It looks to me like Smith is hitting that age wall. His confidence is low for sure and you can see that in his positioning but it's the slower reflexes that I think are the root cause.



I really think they could be in trouble here long term. Love the Rittich story but what they've done by sticking with Smith until he basically broke is now heap loads of pressure on Rittich. If they'd gone with the play as long as you're winning approach I think it would have kept the pressure of being "the guy" off of him.


But here's hoping he can handle the pressure this year, gonna be interesting to see what happens tonight.

I dont know man, Montreal's game winning goal was literally shot right at him.