GT: 2018 US Midterm Elections

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by starseed

fivethirtyeight now thinks the GOP has a 1 in 3 chance of retaining the house.

1 in 8 when i just looked.

7 in 8
Chance Democrats win control (87.9%)

1 in 8
Chance Republicans keep control (12.1%)

whoops...my mistake as this is the NY Times site projections.

[Thor]

Originally Posted by nik-

Abrams getting dominated in Georgia

This is why context matters, where the votes are coming in, comparing to 2016 results, etc

MSNBC Steve Kornacky is great at this stuff

[photon]

Originally Posted by direwolf

CBC reporting that although it looks close at the moment, most of the results so far have come from historically red states, so what we're currently seeing shouldn't be surprising.

That's kinda what they posted on 538.

You may have noticed that our real-time forecast has moved toward Republicans in the House. It’s being too aggressive, in my opinion. The model sees that a bunch of “likely Republican” districts (particularly in Florida) are now 100 percent likely to go red. But there hasn’t been the chance for Democrats to clinch many equivalent likely Democratic districts.

[direwolf]

Another flip for the Dems. From 538:

NBC New projects that Democrat JB Pritzker has won the gubernatorial race in Illinois. That’s a flip to the Democrats and gives them total control of the state government in Illinois.

Also this:

Per preliminary exit polls: Young voters (18 to 29) are breaking for Democrats by a massive 37-point margin. This is vastly larger than the 21-point margin by which Hillary Clinton won them 2016 and even outpaces the 22-point margin Democrats won young voters by in the huge “blue wave” of the 2006 midterms.

[photon]

Originally Posted by transplant99

1 in 8 when i just looked.

7 in 8
Chance Democrats win control (87.9%)

1 in 8
Chance Republicans keep control (12.1%)

That's the final forecast before the election, the live results are here:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blo...ults-coverage/

"House
2 in 5
Chance Democrats win control (39.3%)
3 in 5
Chance Republicans win control (60.7%)"

Lol...

[transplant99]

House
5 in 8
Chance Democrats win control (61.4%)
3 in 8
Chance Republicans win control (38.7%)

Senate
1 in 20
Chance Democrats win control (5.3%)
19 in 20
Chance Republicans win control (94.7%)


538 projections.

[tkflames]

Interestingly FOX has it at 77% for dems to win the house.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Interestingly FOX has it at 77% for dems to win the house.

They can play the "Trump overcame the huge odds to win again or make it closer than expected" narrative if they paint a bleaker picture in projections.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Well at this point it seems the Dems are getting what they need for the most part, Repubs overperforming in rural might prevent a total rout, but even winning the House by one seat is all they really need.

[savemedrzaius]

Ain't democracy great? Everything is gerrymandered. It's all crooked.

[photon]

Lol...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1059982719554215936

[direwolf]

DeSantis is such a reprehensible scumbag, I can't believe he's actually leading Gillum, even if it is by just a hair.

Then again, this is Florida so I guess we shouldn't be surprised. What a dumb state.

From 538:

Stop me if you’ve heard this before — Florida is looking really really close. With 72 percent of precincts reporting, DeSantis leads Gillum 49.7 percent to 49.1 percent. In the Senate race, Rick Scott leads Bill Nelson 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent.

[PostandIn]

Man, I hope that POS Nunes loses in Cali 22. That would make my night.

[Thor]

Anti-gay marriage country clerk Kim Davis loses reelection in Kentucky

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...on-in-kentucky

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Well at this point it seems the Dems are getting what they need for the most part, Repubs overperforming in rural might prevent a total rout, but even winning the House by one seat is all they really need.

Yeah, although suburban/urban areas have shifted bluer, it seems I didn't notice that rural areas went even more all in on Trump. It sucks how much control the rural population has over this country.

[Parallex]

Looking pretty good for the GOP in the senate. I always figured they'd keep it but they may get three pickups at this rate

[direwolf]

Indiana stays red. Gee, what a shocker.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Yeah, although suburban/urban areas have shifted bluer, it seems I didn't notice that rural areas went even more all in on Trump. It sucks how much control the rural population has over this country.

It's partially that, but it's also gerrymandering for sure. Until the Dems can get that rectified, it's always going to be an uphill battle for them.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Speaking of gerrymandering..........from 538

Initial results are trickling in from North Carolina, but at one point, it wasn’t clear that these elections would even be held today. In August, a panel of three federal judges ruled the state’s congressional map to be an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander. That set up the possibility that the state would have to redraw its maps ahead of the midterms and maybe even hold a primary today instead of a general election.

The panel later ruled in September that the state did not need to redraw the lines before November 6th. As a result, today’s elections are being held under maps that favor Republicans with only one or two districts seriously at risk of being picked up by Democrats.

[Senator Clay Davis]

When you look at Abbott's numbers in Texas and Cruz's, it certainly seems a good chunk of Repubs voted for Beto. Still a long way to go, but the miracle we deserve is still on.