The Points Per Game Standard

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by jayswin

We're going to be paying the **** out of Tkachuk, I assume. Still amazing to have a player of his caliber, a good problem. But man, the stars are aligning for the biggest contract in franchise history by a wide margin.

I keep reading this, but I'm genuinely curious as to why people keep thinking this. Yes Tkachuk is awesome. But he's not the player with the highest offensive ceiling on the team. Unless a miracle happens, he's not going to outscore Gaudreau or possibly Monahan. There's a salary structure BT follows with the team, so why would the team just back the Brinks truck up for him simply ''because''?

Do his pest skills give him an extra couple million a year? Just wondering why some people are willing to throw him the biggest contract in team history and what the justification is.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if his contract number starts with a 6, a 7 at the most.

[Rhettzky]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I keep reading this, but I'm genuinely curious as to why people keep thinking this. Yes Tkachuk is awesome. But he's not the player with the highest offensive ceiling on the team. Unless a miracle happens, he's not going to outscore Gaudreau or possibly Monahan. There's a salary structure BT follows with the team, so why would the team just back the Brinks truck up for him simply ''because''?

Do his pest skills give him an extra couple million a year? Just wondering why some people are willing to throw him the biggest contract in team history and what the justification is.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if his contract number starts with a 6, a 7 at the most.

Wouldn't a 7 be the biggest contract in franchise history?

Edit: Iggy made 7 on the nose. So $7,000,001?

[Zoller]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I keep reading this, but I'm genuinely curious as to why people keep thinking this. Yes Tkachuk is awesome. But he's not the player with the highest offensive ceiling on the team. Unless a miracle happens, he's not going to outscore Gaudreau or possibly Monahan. There's a salary structure BT follows with the team, so why would the team just back the Brinks truck up for him simply ''because''?

Do his pest skills give him an extra couple million a year? Just wondering why some people are willing to throw him the biggest contract in team history and what the justification is.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if his contract number starts with a 6, a 7 at the most.

The Tkachuk I've been watching this year seems to have taken a step offensively. His puck protection may be some of the best in the league, his passing is second only to Gaudreau, and his shot is substantially better than Johnny.

I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say Tkachuk is the best player on the team.

[PeteMoss]

For those who will freak out at the thought of it - I'd start mentally preparing yourself for a Tkachuk hold out next year.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Zoller

The Tkachuk I've been watching this year seems to have taken a step offensively. His puck protection may be some of the best in the league, his passing is second only to Gaudreau, and his shot is substantially better than Johnny.

I don't think it's too far of a stretch to say Tkachuk is the best player on the team.

Gaudreau and Gio might have something to say. For present it's clearly them, but I would agree that it's Tkachuk at some point down the road.

However unless he outperforms Gaudreau on the stat sheet this season and clearly becomes the offensive straw that stirs the drink, a contract starting with an 8 or 9 would be insane. I just don't see BT giving in like that when he's had an almost perfect track record with RFA contracts up to date.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Gaudreau and Gio might have something to say. For present it's clearly them, but I would agree that it's Tkachuk at some point down the road.



However unless he outperforms Gaudreau on the stat sheet this season and clearly becomes the offensive straw that stirs the drink, a contract starting with an 8 or 9 would be insane. I just don't see BT giving in like that when he's had an almost perfect track record with RFA contracts up to date.

I am pretty confident Tkachuk gets $8.0 m. He looks like he will score at a 1.00 pts/GP clip, and his contemporaries in that range are all making that kind of money. Tkachuk Sr. was notoriously one of the most difficult negotiators in his career, and I can’t see another Tkachuk leaving any money on the table for any reason.

But I also don’t care too much. The Flames need Matthew Tkachuk, and from where I sit he is easily worth just as much as Giordano and Gaudreau. What a player.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Strange Brew]

The salary car is substantially higher than when Gaudreau signed his deal. It will also depend on how many years Tkachuk is willing to commit. Gaudreau went six years.

Given the higher cap, I can easily see Tkachuk surpass that contract if he goes 6 years or longer. An 8 year deal could easily be Draisaitl money.

[Zulu29]

I hope that we can lock Tkachuk up for 8 years, back up the brinks truck and give that man his money!

[activeStick]

I think Tkachuk is the best player on the Flames, while Johnny is the most talented. Tkachuk's game is more complete. Treliving has shown enough historically to be on the right side of RFA negotiations so I don't doubt he'll come out favorable here as well, which might shock some when all is said and done!

[Jiggy]

I love Tkachuk. But is he in a position to ask for 7+ million? This will be the first year he hits 50+ points. I'm not saying he doesn't deserve 7+ million, but will Tre give it to him? I can see a hold out as well.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by pseudoreality

How many players were >1 PPG at this point in the season last year? It seems like there are always lots of players that overachieve in October. That doesn't mean they will be maintaining it throughout the season.

Look how much the Leafs players that were all looking like historical juggernauts have slowed down since October. Same thing happened (more gradually) with the guys in Tampa last season.

Half of the current PPG crop will slow down and fall closer to the 0.75 range, where "good but not elite" players end up.

Most of the starting goaltenders started off pretty rough this season too. They'll pick it up.

The season has different 'levels' and it seems to escalate after October, then again entering the new year, and of course then the stretch run. As teams tighten up, systems are implemented and competition in the standings heats up, most of the guys that were piling up the points early will fizzle out in the dog days, then the true "top" crop will sustain or ramp it up heading into the playoffs. That's just how she goes.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

I keep reading this, but I'm genuinely curious as to why people keep thinking this. Yes Tkachuk is awesome. But he's not the player with the highest offensive ceiling on the team. Unless a miracle happens, he's not going to outscore Gaudreau or possibly Monahan. There's a salary structure BT follows with the team, so why would the team just back the Brinks truck up for him simply ''because''?

Do his pest skills give him an extra couple million a year? Just wondering why some people are willing to throw him the biggest contract in team history and what the justification is.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if his contract number starts with a 6, a 7 at the most.

Well for starters, the biggest thing you're missing is when the contracts were signed. That's a huge oversight when you look at what Gaudreau/Monahan/Tkachuk's contemporaries are signing present day.
(Gaudreau could probably sign a $9-10mil contract this season if he was up).


Second (and this is admittedly more belief than fact based on my part), his dad was infamous for holding out and getting every single penny he could at all points in his career, while Matthew has seemingly looked up to him in every respect his whole career.

I believe team salaries may play a tiny role in negotiations, but I think fans need to give up on the Gio cap idea that local media and fans have held onto starting this summer.

If Tkachuk remains a PPG or higher player at seasons end, and we sign him for 8 years, I believe we may actually be settling for an $8-8.5 AAV. That would be the discount.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Gaudreau and Gio might have something to say. For present it's clearly them, but I would agree that it's Tkachuk at some point down the road.

However unless he outperforms Gaudreau on the stat sheet this season and clearly becomes the offensive straw that stirs the drink, a contract starting with an 8 or 9 would be insane. I just don't see BT giving in like that when he's had an almost perfect track record with RFA contracts up to date.

I highly doubt Gio and Gaudreau would have something to say. They're professionals who negotiated the best contracts they could get at the time, they're not going to walk up to a young star and say "Hey, think about the team there buddy".

It really doesn't seem like Gio or Gaudreau from what little behind the scenes stuff I've seen of them. Plus, the days of hometown discounts have largely disappeared and gave way to a more calculated, systematic approach that has experts able to predict contracts within a few $100k.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

...The season has different 'levels' and it seems to escalate after October, then again entering the new year, and of course then the stretch run. As teams tighten up, systems are implemented and competition in the standings heats up, most of the guys that were piling up the points early will fizzle out in the dog days, then the true "top" crop will sustain or ramp it up heading into the playoffs. That's just how she goes.

I have no doubt that the number of mpg players will slide over the course of the year, but I also think the trend will continue and more players will hit that mark by the end of the year than did last season. There is a lot more to the increase than merely defensive sloppiness and goalie adjustments in October.

[jayswin]

What will most likely happen is Tkachuk will play himself into a salary range by years end and that will more or less determine what he gets paid. Let's say it's (just making numbers up) 85 points and experts say "This should be a $8.7mil contract over 8 years".

We'll likely wake up one day after some long, tough negotiations lasting into September, possibly October and see an announcement of $8.4-8.9mil AAV.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by jayswin

If Tkachuk remains a PPG or higher player at seasons end, and we sign him for 8 years, I believe we may actually be settling for an $8-8.5 AAV. That would be the discount.

Yeah. You'd think if the guy scores at a ppg he's going to want Eichel money.

Which is a fine contract going forward for a ppg player.

[Mitt31]

Dont forget that BT had a nice talk with Johnny about contracts and 2 points were raised with him:

1 - Highest Salary on the Flames is Giordano (Captain) and no one should make higher.
2 - Lower Contract means they can add another piece to the table = Dynasty

So if Johnny, Gio, Money and Chucky are all in for 6.3-6.75 a season....

That is 4 high caliber players for the price of Toews and Kane...

I think BT is making players think about the difference between playing in the league or being the then New England Patriots of Hockey.

That is my firm belief and we will find out come contract time.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Mitt31

Dont forget that BT had a nice talk with Johnny about contracts and 2 points were raised with him:

1 - Highest Salary on the Flames is Giordano (Captain) and no one should make higher.
2 - Lower Contract means they can add another piece to the table = Dynasty

Is that a fact? As far as I can recall, the conversation Treliving had with Gaudreau was set more along these lines:
1 — As a RFA who burned his first contract year in the last game of his inaugural season, your negotiating leverage is limited.
2 — With no arbitration rights and no eligibility for offer sheets, you pretty much have to come to terms with what the team is offering if you want to play this year.

So if Johnny, Gio, Money and Chucky are all in for 6.3-6.75 a season....

That is 4 high caliber players for the price of Toews and Kane...

I think BT is making players think about the difference between playing in the league or being the then New England Patriots of Hockey.

That is my firm belief and we will find out come contract time.

I think this is all incredibly wishful thinking.

The fact of the matter is that there are small windows inside of which players and managers negotiate contracts, and these are all affected by various factors such as free agency, arbitration, age, and experience. The market HAS CHANGED since Treliving signed contracts for Giordano, Gaudreau, and Monahan. So much so that anything under $7.0 m with term for a player on his second contract and with a near ppg season to his credit is today unambiguously under value for the player. Tkachuk is not going to hamper his own earning power for the sake of some idealistic vision of "team."

Having said that, I expect Treliving to maximize the value of Tkachuk's next contract, but fans really need to prepare themselves for where that value ends up. In today's market, Tkachuk is trending towards being a +$8.0 m player with term.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Gaudreau's contract was only six years. If the Flames wanted more years, they were going to have to exceed the "Giordano cap." The Flames could probably sign Tkachuk to a 5 year, 6.75M contract today. One that brings him to RFA as a 26 year old. But I'd rather they try to get an 8 year contract even if that means going over the Giordano cap.

Tkachuk's dad was notorious for fighting for every penny. Who knows what Matthew believes, but I'd have to believe that Keith's influence would be more than Treliving's.

I guess the one thing different is that the players get 50% of revenue now. So it doesn't really matter what Matthew Tkachuk makes, it just means someone is getting more or less in the grand scheme of things. Unlike back when Keith was playing and taking less just meant more money directly in the pockets of the owners.

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Yeah. You'd think if the guy scores at a ppg he's going to want Eichel money.

Eichel money I think came from more of a point of potential. Of course Tkachuk's camp will bring it up as a comparable but it was quite different.

First Eichel signed his as soon as possible really. He was coming off a huge back half of the season where he went February onwards at a 90 point pace. In his second season in the league. His linemates were relatively trash at the time too, he's putting up this 90 point pace for almost half the season and they're playing at 45.

The Sabres weren't signing Eichel to 10M if they thought he was a point-per-game player. They saw him as a franchise, top tier center about to explode offensively. They were 'afraid' he would get 100 points in his third season and be asking for McDavid money. Getting him locked in at 10M early was a gamble to stop from having to pay him 12M.

Had they waited to sign Eichel until after his ELC and he still was "only" a point-per-game player, especially with another year of missing games due to injuries, he's probably not getting close to 80M. Probably "only" 70M.

[CroFlames]

I don't see the need for more goals per game and I wish they would stop trying to "fix" hockey to gain a few extra fair weather fans.