Start of season SC odds - Page 5 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Gamblor · 10-02-2018, 07:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I'll take Anaheim over Calgary in the standings. We can make it a 20 dollar donation to Calgarypuck if you. want

Why don't we split it 50/50. $10 for the winner, $10 for CP?

BigSmoke · 10-02-2018, 07:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Oilers were the beat team on paper last season? Odds are adjusted based on what people are voting on. Media and fans are a factor. Obviously even delusional fans weren't putting their money down on the Leafs when the organization/media was telling them it's a rebuild.

If you want to make a +650 bet on the Leafs winning the cup be my guest...it's a terrible bet.

You're saying that now. At the time they were seen as a major cup threat by everyone.

The media hypes team they legitamately think can win. With the Leafs it seems to be more U.S media. Canadian media thinks they have no chance.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/...018-19-season/

dino7c · 10-02-2018, 08:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

You're saying that now. At the time they were seen as a major cup threat by everyone.

The media hypes team they legitamately think can win. With the Leafs it seems to be more U.S media. Canadian media thinks they have no chance.

Actually I predicted their bad season due to lack of depth and defence. You can search here if you like. Nashville was obviously a better team when factoring in the previous year and looking at rosters.

If you want to make a bad bet by all means go for it...the league has too much parity.

Funny I don't recall Washington trolls here bragging last season at this time.

Anyway GL with your bet...+650 it should be easy, wire to wire presidents trophy and coasting to the cup.

BigSmoke · 10-02-2018, 08:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Actually I predicted their bad season due to lack of depth and defence. You can search here if you like. Nashville was obviously a better team when factoring in the previous year and looking at rosters.

If you want to make a bad bet by all means go for it...the league has too much parity.

Funny I don't recall Washington trolls here bragging last season at this time.

Anyway GL with your bet...+650 it should be easy, wire to wire presidents trophy and coasting to the cup.

Except I am picking St-Louis to win the cup.

FlameX · 10-02-2018, 09:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rotten42

How the hell do they put the Coilers ahead of the Flames? Have they looked at their roster?

Everyone thinks the Oilers will be in the playoffs or win the division.

GioforPM · 10-02-2018, 09:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FlameX

Everyone thinks the Oilers will be in the playoffs or win the division.

http://www.sportingnews.com/ca/nhl/n...otzxv7e1pd0veq

https://www.nhl.com/news/2018-19-sta...ff/c-300466554

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...at-91-5-points

heep223 · 10-02-2018, 09:51 AM

I still don’t understand the arguments about the odds. It’s simply a reflection of how people are actually betting - it’s why small market teams are almost always a good bet (from a probabilities/risk ratio perspective). Because less people bet on them.

There is definitely an argument that the Leafs are always higher than they should be for this reason. However these things are very complex just like any supply/demand market - there are thousands of moving parts to this, including human behaviour which is completely irrational.

It’s impossible to explain human behaviour rationally because humans are idiots.

Textcritic · 10-02-2018, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GioforPM

https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/h...at-91-5-points

Quote:

Originally Posted by David Staples

"...I see the Oilers making the playoffs, mainly because I see McDavid dragging them there, but also because I see uptick seasons from the likes of Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Darnell Nurse, Tobias Rieder, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Cam Talbot, Ryan Strome and Matt Benning, or at least eight out of ten of them.

It seems that everyone in Edmonton is pencilled in for a big year. Here come the Oilers!

BigSmoke · 10-02-2018, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heep223

I still don’t understand the arguments about the odds. It’s simply a reflection of how people are actually betting - it’s why small market teams are almost always a good bet (from a probabilities/risk ratio perspective). Because less people bet on them.

There is definitely an argument that the Leafs are always higher than they should be for this reason. However these things are very complex just like any supply/demand market - there are thousands of moving parts to this, including human behaviour which is completely irrational.

It’s impossible to explain human behaviour rationally because humans are idiots.

Many small market teams do have the best odds if you look at Vegas odds' history.

And I just gave you proof the Leafs are not high in odds and you ignored it and claim they are always high. That is simply not true at all.

heep223 · 10-02-2018, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Many small market teams do have the best odds if you look at Vegas odds' history.

And I just gave you proof the Leafs are not high in odds and you ignored it and claim they are always high. That is simply not true at all.

Actually I said there’s an argument that there’s an inefficiency in that vein, but that these things are very complex. I don’t give a #### where the Leafs are or aren’t, or what your views on the betting odds on some big eastern market team is. I was just using the small market teams as an example of a potential inefficiency.

My point is that none of this argument matters. The odds reflect actual betting on teams, and you have to assume the majority of bettors have all available public info, and ‘the collective’ is way smarter than you. It’s like the stock market.

Textcritic · 10-02-2018, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Many small market teams do have the best odds if you look at Vegas odds' history.

And I just gave you proof the Leafs are not high in odds and you ignored it and claim they are always high. That is simply not true at all.

heep223 did not claim that the Maple Leafs are "always high." He said that "[t]here is definitely an argument that the Leafs are always higher than they should be..." That's a huge difference. In the years you cited in which the odds given the Leafs were very low it is because they were legitimately a terrible team. The argument forwarded here is not that odds are determined solely on the basis of the number of bets cast, but rather that that is a significant contributing factor among several others.

In the case of this year the odds given to Toronto are high because they are legitimately a playoff team and also fielding a higher number of bets precisely because of the much larger fan base. I would most definitely take the "under" on both Edmonton and Toronto most years because their myopic fanbases have a strong tendency to believe they are better than they actually are, and this confidence feeds the odds.

heep223 · 10-02-2018, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

heep223 did not claim that the Maple Leafs are "always high." He said that "[t]here is definitely an argument that the Leafs are always higher than they should be..." That's a huge difference. In the years you cited in which the odds given the Leafs were very low it is because they were legitimately a terrible team. The argument forwarded here is not that odds are determined solely on the basis of the number of bets cast, but rather that that is a significant contributing factor among several others.

In the case of this year the odds given to Toronto are high because they are legitimately a playoff team and also fielding a higher number of bets precisely because of the much larger fan base. I would most definitely take the "under" on both Edmonton and Toronto most years because their myopic fanbases have a strong tendency to believe they are better than they actually are, and this confidence feeds the odds.

I bet you if we “gave” the odds on all the big market teams every year (as opposed to taking the odds), we’d consistently make money over time. Simply because there’s way more fans betting on them for the reasons you state, which drives down payouts and shortens the odds not based on anything fundamental.

gamesaver · 10-02-2018, 11:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Nope, Elliott is still the starter, and Neuvirth the backup. It all depends on Anthony Stolarz. He's been tabbed as the next starter for a while, and he has good potential to be a top half of the league starter this year. He lost all of last year due to knee injuries, but had 2 seasons before that where he posted good AHL numbers, and some very good NHL numbers in limited action.

If Stolarz can't recover from his injuries, Elliott will still be his old self, and the Flyers will be sunk again. Carter Hart is the other goalie in the system, but is probably at least another year away from the NHL. He dominated junior, and is playing his first season in the AHL this year.

But I like the rest of their team, especially considering how good some of their youth is. Defense could be better, but Andy McDonald is out for 6 weeks with an injury. The lineup is relatively strong and has some elite talent. This is what they are projected to look like:

Giroux-Courturier-Konecny
Van Riemsdyk-Patrick-Voracek
Lindblom-Weal-Simmonds
Raffl-Laughton-Weise

Gostisbehere-Provorov
Sanheim-Gudas
Hagg-Folin

*IR-Andy McDonald

Elliott/Neuvirth

Elliot is inconsistent, Neuvirth is injury prone, same applies to Stolarz. Their best shot is Lyon and Hart, but those two need more experience. Their forward group is decent enough to make the playoffs, but their defence lacks depth in my opinion. I do not see them getting further than the second round to be honest.

BigSmoke · 10-02-2018, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

heep223 did not claim that the Maple Leafs are "always high." He said that "[t]here is definitely an argument that the Leafs are always higher than they should be..." That's a huge difference. In the years you cited in which the odds given the Leafs were very low it is because they were legitimately a terrible team. The argument forwarded here is not that odds are determined solely on the basis of the number of bets cast, but rather that that is a significant contributing factor among several others.

In the case of this year the odds given to Toronto are high because they are legitimately a playoff team and also fielding a higher number of bets precisely because of the much larger fan base. I would most definitely take the "under" on both Edmonton and Toronto most years because their myopic fanbases have a strong tendency to believe they are better than they actually are, and this confidence feeds the odds.

Why is Winnipeg so high then? Why has Anaheim and Tampa been so high? Why aren't the Rangers ever higher?

dino7c · 10-02-2018, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Why is Winnipeg so high then? Why has Anaheim and Tampa been so high? Why aren't the Rangers ever higher?

Nobody is saying it's the ONLY factor

You are fighting everyone about it but won't make the bet yourself lol
Bigjoke

Oil Stain · 10-02-2018, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gamblor

Why don't we split it 50/50. $10 for the winner, $10 for CP?

Done

Gamblor · 10-02-2018, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Done

Good stuff. I look forward to seeing how this turned out in 6 1/2 months.

Textcritic · 10-02-2018, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Why is Winnipeg so high then? Why has Anaheim and Tampa been so high? Why aren't the Rangers ever higher?

God. Are you completely daft?

For the THIRD time: there are a combination of factors taken into account by odds-makers that are not limited to market-size: ONE is the actual projection of a team on the basis of roster-strength; ONE is based on the amount of money the house collects and the minimum threshold to maintain their profit margin in the event of a payout. THERE ARE CERTAINLY OTHERS AS WELL.

· Winnipeg is high because they are legitimately a good team.
· TB is high because they are probably the best team in the NHL.
· Anaheim likely attracts a lot of action because they have a long history of doing well.
· NYR is high because no one is so deluded to think that in this first year of a rebuild they will accomplish much.

This is not difficult. Why are you struggling so much to grasp the nuance in this?

Gamblor · 10-03-2018, 08:24 AM

If anyone has money in a sportsinteraction account that they don't mind losing (most of the time), the Florida Panthers at +1700 to win the division seems like a decent value.

BigSmoke · 10-03-2018, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Nobody is saying it's the ONLY factor

You are fighting everyone about it but won't make the bet yourself lol
Bigjoke

Because I don't believe the Leafs will win the cup. Why would I bet?
I am picking the Blues.