Does Dube make the team?

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by edslunch

Stats aside, I think promoting players directly from junior to the NHL is a bad idea unless they are clearly too good for junior and the AHL is not an option (e.g. typical high first round pick from CHL). Otherwise you’re rushing their development at the risk of stunting it, just to get them some 4th line minutes.

As exciting as Dube is as a prospect he’s far from a finished product. The Flames don’t need him in the NHL this year, so send him down and him learn and hopefully dominate in the AHL for a year.

IMO the Flames should dress the best possible lineup. Starting Jankowski in the AHL last year turned out to be a mistake. The only reason we had any wins during that time was because Mike Smith stood on his head.

Margin for error in the NHL is extremely fine and the Flames have not proven to be a guaranteed playoff team.

If Dube is one of the 12 best forwards, he should make the team IMO.

[Nelson]

I think the eye test is dangerous because no one’s memory is perfect and even what is captured is just a fraction of the game. More importantly, everyone knows the problems associated with confirmation bias. Now, the only seeing part of the game and confirmation bias issues are found with stats too, but at least someone who uses stats isn’t giving a strongly worded generalization without any evidence whatsoever (my personal pet peeve).

With stats, I think the strength of the inference you can draw from them directly relates to sample size, contextualization (OZS%, line mates and opposition) and the trustworthiness it the source. I generally assume the trustworthiness of the source because I don’t know how to figure out who’s counting shot attempts, scoring chances, etc. and then figure out the other two variables.


But stats are not mysterious numbers that mean something only statistician’s can figure out. Hockey stats like CF, FF, SCF, HDSC, etc. are the results of counting. They are important to me because they are an indirect way of showing possession in the offensive zone.


One major issue with them is they don’t fully account for how goals are scored (i.e. the royal road and other puck movements likely to result in goals).


Anyways, that’s my perspective on the issue of how to evaluate players. Really, I think you take into account all the types of evidence you have at your disposal in the context of their individual strengths and weaknesses.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

IMO the Flames should dress the best possible lineup. Starting Jankowski in the AHL last year turned out to be a mistake. The only reason we had any wins during that time was because Mike Smith stood on his head.

Margin for error in the NHL is extremely fine and the Flames have not proven to be a guaranteed playoff team.

If Dube is one of the 12 best forwards, he should make the team IMO.

Absolutely.

I just bristle with the assumption that NHL executives are too dim to figuere that out because they cut a young player. From their perspective they're watching an odd camp with half of the guys in China, and the other half playing a delayed preseason of weak opposition and trying to figure out if the kid is ready or not.

If they decide he is and say cut Hathaway who gets claimed by Vancouver and then have Dube look like a different player when the regular season bullets fly ... it's bad asset management.

A kid that hasn't played pro hockey starting in the AHL and dominating isn't a bad thing. It gives them that middle step to add to their assessment without over reacting to preseason games.

[sureLoss]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1044261674356633601

https://twitter.com/user/status/1044262428727365632

https://twitter.com/user/status/1044262780780470279

[Toonage]

Gillies out there as well (going by pic on Twitter)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1044263328183250944

I spotted Rittich still out there in that pic, so this "NHL group" isn't a final set yet

[Bingo]

As a comparison point ....

Looked at the Oilers numbers and Yamamoto is in the bottom five in all three of CF%, SCF% and HDCF%.

That suggests he's getting filled in when he's on the ice, and certainly not dominating as their media would suggest because of his counting stats.

Back to the Flames ...

The opposite can be said in the battle for the blueline, where Rasmus Andersson isn't a recent junior grad, has played pro hockey and has shown he was ready for NHL action with a late season call up.

His numbers ... Andersson is 54% CF%, 55% SCF% and 83% HDCF%.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Bingo

As a comparison point ....

Looked at the Oilers numbers and Yamamoto is in the bottom five in all three of CF%, SCF% and HDCF%.

That suggests he's getting filled in when he's on the ice, and certainly not dominating as their media would suggest because of his counting stats.

Back to the Flames ...

The opposite can be said in the battle for the blueline, where Rasmus Andersson isn't a recent junior grad, has played pro hockey and has shown he was ready for NHL action with a late season call up.

His numbers ... Andersson is 54% CF%, 55% SCF% and 83% HDCF%.

And I think the idea that Andersson is playing well is reinforced by the eye test. The other night I thought he looked very confident in moving the puck up the ice and making plays on the power play.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Gillies out there as well (going by pic on Twitter)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1044263328183250944

I spotted Rittich still out there in that pic, so this "NHL group" isn't a final set yet

I only see Smith and Gillies. Where is Rittich?

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Nelson

I only see Smith and Gillies. Where is Rittich?

You can see his mask behind Gio (who is behind Peters)

Kind of Where's Waldo like.

[SuperMatt18]

I want to see:

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm
Tkachuk - Backlund - Czarnik
Bennett - Ryan - Neal
Dube - Jankowski - Frolik

Two natural centers on each line, top 3 lines all have at least 1 RH shot, and every line has a RW that has played mostly RW in his NHL career.

Really with this lineup you keep the LW-C combos together and the RWs are pretty interchangeable.

That is head and shoulders better than any forward lineup we dressed last season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Nelson

And I think the idea that Andersson is playing well is reinforced by the eye test. The other night I thought he looked very confident in moving the puck up the ice and making plays on the power play.

And to add to that ...

I was impressed that he now seems to know when the simple play is required instead of forcing things.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by Toonage

You can see his mask behind Gio (who is behind Peters)

Kind of Where's Waldo like.

Nice work!

[Split98]

It might just be my brain giving up on trying to settle on a line combo... but if we view this team as 13 forwards, arranged however the game plays out, I don't see Dube off the opening line-up

Gaudreau, Monahan, Neal
Tkachuk, Backlund, Lindholm
Jankowski, Ryan, Czarnik
Bennett, Dube, Frolik,
Hathaway

If Peters is the real-deal, we could see some pretty cool combinations come out of those 13 depending on what the game needs.

Anaheim game getting a little out of hand?
Bennett, Dube, Neal... go see what you can do.

Time to protect the lead?
3M... Activate!

[Nelson]

Pat Steinberg
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Verified account

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These aren’t #Flames lines tonight, but interesting nonetheless this morning:

Gaudreau-Monahan-Neal
Tkachuk-Backlund-Czarnik
Frolik-Ryan-Lindholm
Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway
Lazar-Dube-Peluso

Giordano-Brodie
Hanifin-Hamonic
Kulak-Stone
Prout-Andersson

No Mangiapane, Foo, Kylington or Valimaki

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Split98

Anaheim game getting a little out of hand?
Bennett, Dube, Neal... go see what you can do.

Time to protect the lead?
3M... Activate!

I'd probably go Tkachuk - Bennett - Neal if we needed a physical spark.

With 8 natural centers, and 3 RH shot C/RWs in that group of 13 forwards it's crazy just how flexible this line up is.

[Geeoff]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Absolutely.

I just bristle with the assumption that NHL executives are too dim to figuere that out because they cut a young player. From their perspective they're watching an odd camp with half of the guys in China, and the other half playing a delayed preseason of weak opposition and trying to figure out if the kid is ready or not.

If they decide he is and say cut Hathaway who gets claimed by Vancouver and then have Dube look like a different player when the regular season bullets fly ... it's bad asset management.

A kid that hasn't played pro hockey starting in the AHL and dominating isn't a bad thing. It gives them that middle step to add to their assessment without over reacting to preseason games.

I think Hathaway on waivers is an eventuality. He's a fringe NHLer and I expect one of Foo, Mangiapane or Dube to take his spot. He would probably pass through waivers anyway.

He's a good dude, so hopefully he doesn't end up on the Canucks. :P

[JohnnyTitan]

Something I think posters often forget when writing off Bennett (and to some extent Lazar) is their young age.

Hathaway is the opposite. Because he arrived with the Flames after Bennett you'd kinda/sorta think they're comparable. They're not!

So not only is Hathaway the worst of our forward options in my mind, he's also the least likely to improve in my mind. He's almost 27!

Not like anyone is expecting Hathaway to become a top-6 guy some day, but he has less to give development-wise than basically all our other forward prospects. I will not shed a tear if he goes, even though he's a great guy and has a good motor and plays with an edge. He's just no good and not ever going to be any good. And please please please get him away from Bennett!

Ages
Hathaway -> 26 years old turns 27 in Nov
Bennett -> 22 years old and just turned 22
Jankowski -> 24 years old and just turned 24
Dube -> 20 years old and just turned 20
Curtis Lazar -> 23.5 years old
Klimchuk -> 23.5 years old
Mangipane -> 22.5 years old
Austin Czarnik -> 25 years old, will turn 26 in Dec

IMO - Hathaway is the least valuable asset and the worst gamble to make. Would rather keep Lazar over Hathaway!

[dammage79]

Dube it seems is fighting Hathaway for that last spot. He's going to need to post a few more goals against tougher opposition the rest of camp to do that. I do have faith in him though. He has managed to mesh well with whoever he lines with.

[bigpete]

Ugh why is Hathaway always with Janko and Bennett every practise? That is one line that needs to be dismantled permanently.

[Flash Walken]

I don't know if Dube and Hathaway are in competition with each other.

They bring different elements to the game.

If you're Jankowski or Bennett I think there has to be some concern about your spot on the roster in the weeks/months/years to come.