[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flames_F.T.W

Yeah, I'm starting to get a little antsy. Hopefully a long term deal for a team friendly number gets announced soon!

I think it's likely due to age, but I just don't sweat this stuff.

They always get done.

The longer it takes the more likely it's going 6-7 years, but they have a fall back set up on a bridge, and neither side is going to let this go to camp without a deal done.

Treliving seems to be a good mix of humanist and poker player to the extent that he gets good long term internal deals from his players without leaving resentment in the end.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The one thing you can't take away from either Giordano or Hamilton is the suppression and counting stats. We can argue who is driving who, but the bottom line is a lot of minutes with success.

You can't just put any old player there and have that happen.

Hamilton has played six years, and for four of the six he's had one of Chara or Giordano as his partner which says two things; 1) he's had some help 2) he's been good enough to play with the best and/or is the best

All told Giordano for 2435 minutes and Chara for 1593 for a total of 4029. The other partners with 50 or more minutes total 2653 minutes with Seidenberg and Russell being the most frequent partners.

His CF% with the big two is 56.8%, with others 51.3%

The kid can play.

Situational suppression?

The Flames were playing from behind a lot more than say any playoff team. Teams that were up on the Flames would not be that concerned with generating shots when they were statistically on their way to winning the game.

With the Flames trailing by a goal the other team would be focusing an checking Hamilton/Gio rather than generating shots. A lot more of gaining the zone and making sure the puck got in deep.

Simple fact is that trailing team generate a lot more shots than than they do with a lead.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Situational suppression?

The Flames were playing from behind a lot more than say any playoff team. Teams that were up on the Flames would not be that concerned with generating shots when they were statistically on their way to winning the game.

With the Flames trailing by a goal the other team would be focusing an checking Hamilton/Gio rather than generating shots. A lot more of gaining the zone and making sure the puck got in deep.

Simple fact is that trailing team generate a lot more shots than than they do with a lead.

It's not like players on losing teams dominate these stats, is it?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It's not like players on losing teams dominate these stats, is it?

Hamilton/ Gio leaders Hanifin well above average... from losing teams.

Where would there be a list of shot suppression leaders? How closely is it correlated to top defensemen on winning teams? or even Norris voting? or any other obvious ranking system for good defensemen? (request for info)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Situational suppression?

The Flames were playing from behind a lot more than say any playoff team. Teams that were up on the Flames would not be that concerned with generating shots when they were statistically on their way to winning the game.

With the Flames trailing by a goal the other team would be focusing an checking Hamilton/Gio rather than generating shots. A lot more of gaining the zone and making sure the puck got in deep.

Simple fact is that trailing team generate a lot more shots than than they do with a lead.

The duo plays a tonne, and they played a tonne all season in each of the last two seasons. In that they were one of if not the most decorated pair in the league in almost any metric.

Or easy answer ... nope.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The duo plays a tonne, and they played a tonne all season in each of the last two seasons. In that they were one of if not the most decorated pair in the league in almost any metric.

Or easy answer ... nope.

Treliving referred to them as the best pairing in the league. Obviously you take anything a GM says with a giant grain of salt but yeah, that probably means the pairing is more than just one good player.

[Bingo]

Some further digging.

There is little doubt that the Giordano/Hamilton duo would benefit from Hamilton throwing everything to net; their CF would jump and with that their CF%.

This doesn't say that their suppression would change at all though, the heat maps are what they are, they don't allow much to get near the net and are excellent at suppression.

Looking at straight on ice counting stats Hamilton was league wide for CF last season averaging 71.6 events for per 60 minutes of ice time. Giordano not surprisingly was second with 71.3. The next closest dman was Brett Burns (not a shock) at 68.5, followed by Josi at 67.8.

On the suppression side of things the duo was still pretty dominant however ...

Giordano was ranked 11th league wide at 52.3 attempts against per 60 minutes of ice time. Hamilton was 15th at 52.7 attempts/60.

Some good news? Noah Hanifin (with sheltering) was 6th at 50.7/60 minutes

There is literally no way to discredit the Giordano/Hamilton pairing.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Some further digging.

There is little doubt that the Giordano/Hamilton duo would benefit from Hamilton throwing everything to net; their CF would jump and with that their CF%.

This doesn't say that their suppression would change at all though, the heat maps are what they are, they don't allow much to get near the net and are excellent at suppression.

Looking at straight on ice counting stats Hamilton was league wide for CF last season averaging 71.6 events for per 60 minutes of ice time. Giordano not surprisingly was second with 71.3. The next closest dman was Brett Burns (not a shock) at 68.5, followed by Josi at 67.8.

On the suppression side of things the duo was still pretty dominant however ...

Giordano was ranked 11th league wide at 52.3 attempts against per 60 minutes of ice time. Hamilton was 15th at 52.7 attempts/60.

Some good news? Noah Hanifin (with sheltering) was 6th at 50.7/60 minutes

There is literally no way to discredit the Giordano/Hamilton pairing.

Except for their team's winning %

3 of the top 15 shot suppression d-men from teams that lost 8 and 10 more games than they won.

I expect that with the Flames winning a lot more games and playing with a lead far more often Gio and Hanifin will see a big drop in shot suppression rankings as other teams will be out-shooting the Flames in desperation in the 3rd period.


where is the list for shot suppression ranking?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Except for their team's winning %

3 of the top 15 shot suppression d-men from teams that lost 8 and 10 more games than they won.

I expect that with the Flames winning a lot more games and playing with a lead far more often Gio and Hanifin will see a big drop in shot suppression rankings as other teams will be out-shooting the Flames in desperation in the 3rd period.


where is the list for shot suppression ranking?

It's a self made list using corsi against and minutes played and then ranking it.

I don't see a list with only bad teams at the top though. It seems more to do with coaching and talent than it does standings.

Known defense first coaches like Hitchcock, Peters, and Stevens have good representation but three of the top four spots are held down by playoff teams (Bruins, Vegas)

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Some further digging.

There is little doubt that the Giordano/Hamilton duo would benefit from Hamilton throwing everything to net; their CF would jump and with that their CF%.

This doesn't say that their suppression would change at all though, the heat maps are what they are, they don't allow much to get near the net and are excellent at suppression.

Looking at straight on ice counting stats Hamilton was league wide for CF last season averaging 71.6 events for per 60 minutes of ice time. Giordano not surprisingly was second with 71.3. The next closest dman was Brett Burns (not a shock) at 68.5, followed by Josi at 67.8.

On the suppression side of things the duo was still pretty dominant however ...

Giordano was ranked 11th league wide at 52.3 attempts against per 60 minutes of ice time. Hamilton was 15th at 52.7 attempts/60.

Some good news? Noah Hanifin (with sheltering) was 6th at 50.7/60 minutes

There is literally no way to discredit the Giordano/Hamilton pairing.

About a month ago there was a discussion about ‘faking’ Corsi. Is this what you’re implying by throwing everything to the net to increase the CF?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Except for their team's winning %

3 of the top 15 shot suppression d-men from teams that lost 8 and 10 more games than they won.

I expect that with the Flames winning a lot more games and playing with a lead far more often Gio and Hanifin will see a big drop in shot suppression rankings as other teams will be out-shooting the Flames in desperation in the 3rd period.


where is the list for shot suppression ranking?

Here is the d-man shot suppression rankings for different score effects (minimum 200 minutes played in each scenario).

Leading:

Hanifin: 11th - 54.72 CA/60 (374 minutes - 64% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 27th - 57.57 CA/60 (376 minutes - 48% offensive zone faceoffs)
Giordano: 49th - 59.65 CA/60 (380 minutes - 48% offensive zone faceoffs)

Trailing:

Giordano: 5th - 43.53 CA/60 (492 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 9th - 44.38 CA/60 (482 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hanifin : 12th - 44.67 CA/60 (386 minutes - 70% offensive zone faceoffs)

Tied:

Hanifin: 22nd - 52.27 CA/60 (525 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)
Giordano: 54th - 55.25 CA/60 (553 minutes - 53% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 76th - 56.32 CA/60 (570 minutes - 53% offensive zone faceoffs)

There actually is an interesting insight here - so while overall Giordano and Hamilton are top 25 at shot suppression a big part of that is their great ranking when we are trailing.

When tied or leading they aren't ranked nearly as high.

However what this ignores is how good they are at generating shots - which is really a key strength of Hamilton and Giordano.

If you look at the CF% for these players in the same scenarios:

Leading:

Hanifin: 1st - 54.71 CF% (374 minutes - 64% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 6th - 52.12 CF% (376 minutes - 48% offensive zone faceoffs)
Giordano: 13th - 50.33 CF% (380 minutes - 48% offensive zone faceoffs)

Trailing:

Giordano: 3rd - 63.02 CF% (492 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 7th - 62.3 CF% (482 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hanifin : 28th - 58.22 CF%(386 minutes - 70% offensive zone faceoffs)

Tied:

Giordano: 2nd - 58.02 CF% (553 minutes - 53% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hamilton: 4th - 57.43% CF% (570 minutes - 53% offensive zone faceoffs)
Hanifin: 9th - 55.03 CF% (525 minutes - 57% offensive zone faceoffs)

So overall Giordano and Hamilton may not have been great at shot suppression when leading or tied but still drove play and were elite at generating shots on goal even if they weren't at elite as suppressing shots.

Hanifin is interesting in that he's a bit of the opposite in that he's better at shot suppression tied and when leading but doesn't rank as high when trailing, but also still good overall at driving play.

The question remains though....can Hanifin do it when he's facing a tougher Quality of Competition and is not as sheltered as he was in Carolina.

[SuperMatt18]

^

To top up on that last note as well:

Hamilton/Giordano played about 35% of their minutes trailing (where they have elite shot suppression).

Hanifin played about 30% of his minutes trailing.

McAvoy & McAvoy (top two in overall Corsi against per 60) played about 27% of their ice time when trailing.

I'm not sure if any websites adjust corsi for Score Effects anymore but it does seem like Giordano/Hamilton were better when trailing, and played an abnormal amount of their icetime trailing since Flames were a bad team.

Overall I don't think this means Giordano/Hamilton were a bad pairing though, they were still great, just means they likely weren't the "top pairing in the league" that they were made out to be at times.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's a self made list using corsi against and minutes played and then ranking it.

I don't see a list with only bad teams at the top though. It seems more to do with coaching and talent than it does standings.

Known defense first coaches like Hitchcock, Peters, and Stevens have good representation but three of the top four spots are held down by playoff teams (Bruins, Vegas)

Is there some sort of copyright suppression on the list of the top 50? Or is there some suspicious results that other offense first weak defense players rank high in shot suppression? Does the shot suppression ranking survive the smell test? It sounds like it would be extremely important in winning games. Would Nashvile's defense all be in the top 20? Would the best overall d-man of this era: Doughty dominate this stat?

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Is there some sort of copyright suppression on the list of the top 50?

No just a butt ugly paste

[Bingo]

Here is an ugly list ... score adjusted (takes trailing/leading out of it)

Mostly playoff teams to be honest, and Giordano/Hamilton are right near the top.

Player Season Team CA/60
Colin Miller 16-18 BOS/ VGK 41.12
Matt Grzelcyk 16-18 BOS 41.79
Charlie Mcavoy 16-18 BOS 41.99
Sebastian Aho 16-18 CAR 42.46
Kevan Miller 16-18 BOS 42.66
Torey Krug 16-18 BOS 43.72
Drew Doughty 16-18 L.A 43.84
Hampus Lindholm 16-18 ANA 44.17
Jaccob Slavin 16-18 CAR 44.31
Brett Pesce 16-18 CAR 44.35
Travis Dermott 16-18 TOR 44.49
Josh Manson 16-18 ANA 44.64
Mark Giordano 16-18 CGY 44.73
Mattias Ekholm 16-18 NSH 44.79
Matt Niskanen 16-18 WSH 44.84
Brayden Mcnabb 16-18 L.A/ VGK 44.97
Zdeno Chara 16-18 BOS 45.09
P K..subban 16-18 NSH 45.3
Dougie Hamilton 16-18 CGY 45.46
Adam Mcquaid 16-18 BOS 45.49
Dustin Byfuglien 16-18 WPG 45.62
Colton Parayko 16-18 STL 45.68
Jake Muzzin 16-18 L.A 45.7
Brandon Carlo 16-18 BOS 45.79
Kris Letang 16-18 PIT 45.84
Andrei Markov 16-18 MTL 45.94
Dmitry Orlov 16-18 WSH 46.1
Anton Stralman 16-18 T.B 46.41
Victor Hedman 16-18 T.B 46.43
Trevor Van Riemsdyk 16-18 CHI/ CAR 46.48
Zach Werenski 16-18 CBJ 46.6
Seth Jones 16-18 CBJ 46.61
Radko Gudas 16-18 PHI 46.91
Justin Faulk 16-18 CAR 46.99
Brenden Dillon 16-18 S.J 47.16
Noah Hanifin 16-18 CAR 47.18
Brian Dumoulin 16-18 PIT 47.27
Josh Morrissey 16-18 WPG 47.42
Shea Weber 16-18 MTL 47.48
Alex Pietrangelo 16-18 STL 47.52
Michal Kempny 16-18 CHI/ WSH 47.72
Jeff Petry 16-18 MTL 47.73
Connor Carrick 16-18 TOR 47.76
Nate Schmidt 16-18 WSH/ VGK 47.85
David Savard 16-18 CBJ 48.75
John Klingberg 16-18 DAL 49.32
Roman Josi 16-18 NSH 49.43
Ryan Ellis 16-18 NSH 49.55
Brent Burns 16-18 S.J 51.09
Paul Martin 16-18 S.J 51.49

[AC]

Here you go Bingo, cleaned up the list and used the CODE tags to maintain the spacing:

Player		Season	Team	CA/60
Colin Miller	16-18	BOS/VGK	41.12
Matt Grzelcyk	16-18	BOS	41.79
Charlie Mcavoy	16-18	BOS	41.99
Sebastian Aho	16-18	CAR	42.46
Kevan Miller	16-18	BOS	42.66
Torey Krug	16-18	BOS	43.72
Drew Doughty	16-18	LA	43.84
Hampus Lindholm	16-18	ANA	44.17
Jaccob Slavin	16-18	CAR	44.31
Brett Pesce	16-18	CAR	44.35
Travis Dermott	16-18	TOR	44.49
Josh Manson	16-18	ANA	44.64
Mark Giordano	16-18	CGY	44.73
Mattias Ekholm	16-18	NSH	44.79
Matt Niskanen	16-18	WSH	44.84
Brayden Mcnabb	16-18	LA/VGK	44.97
Zdeno Chara	16-18	BOS	45.09
P K..subban	16-18	NSH	45.3
Dougie Hamilton	16-18	CGY	45.46
Adam Mcquaid	16-18	BOS	45.49
Byfuglien	16-18	WPG	45.62
Colton Parayko	16-18	STL	45.68
Jake Muzzin	16-18	LA	45.7
Brandon Carlo	16-18	BOS	45.79
Kris Letang	16-18	PIT	45.84
Andrei Markov	16-18	MTL	45.94
Dmitry Orlov	16-18	WSH	46.1
Anton Stralman	16-18	TB	46.41
Victor Hedman	16-18	TB	46.43
Van Riemsdyk	16-18	CHI/CAR	46.48
Zach Werenski	16-18	CBJ	46.6
Seth Jones	16-18	CBJ	46.61
Radko Gudas	16-18	PHI	46.91
Justin Faulk	16-18	CAR	46.99
Brenden Dillon	16-18	SJ	47.16
Noah Hanifin	16-18	CAR	47.18
Brian Dumoulin	16-18	PIT	47.27
Josh Morrissey	16-18	WPG	47.42
Shea Weber	16-18	MTL	47.48
Pietrangelo	16-18	STL	47.52
Michal Kempny	16-18	CHI/WSH	47.72
Jeff Petry	16-18	MTL	47.73
Connor Carrick	16-18	TOR	47.76
Nate Schmidt	16-18	WSH/VGK	47.85
David Savard	16-18	CBJ	48.75
John Klingberg	16-18	DAL	49.32
Roman Josi	16-18	NSH	49.43
Ryan Ellis	16-18	NSH	49.55
Brent Burns	16-18	SJ	51.09
Paul Martin	16-18	SJ	51.49

[Enoch Root]

I look at that list and I see zero correlation with who the best defensemen in the NHL are. Which says, to me, the stat should be taken with a giant grain of salt.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I look at that list and I see zero correlation with who the best defensemen in the NHL are. Which says, to me, the stat should be taken with a giant grain of salt.

As I said it seems to be more of a coaching stat.

Keep in mind as well, that raw CA isn't the same as a heat map for where a dman allows shot attempts.

But it's never a bad thing to allow less shot attempts against in 60 minutes of ice time. The Bruins clearly don't allow much at all, no matter who is on the ice.

[Knut]

I personally like the heat maps. IT really tells a story of where they are suppressing the shots.

[Strange Brew]

The fact that Carolina defensemen are all over that list is no coincidence and makes pretty clear the style of play Treliving wants from a coach IMO.