Pronman: Flames with the 29th ranked farm system

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

We didn't include him in our prospect polling list!

Wait! Maybe we should have included James Neal!

He was an 2nd team AHL all star last year (only player in Flames org to be so honored). He only played 10 games in the NHL last year.

He is a prospect if he was with the Bruins,

If the Bruins gave him 26 more games he is a RFA. Bruins prospects Kuraly and Bjork who had less NHL experience at the start of the season were played ahead of Czarnik.

As to him being the Flames top prospect I will crowd source CP. (same strategy you employed to support your opinion on the Athletic underrating the Flames management).

Check the Building The 2018/19 Flames Roster thread an see that Czarnik is penciled in on all the proposed CP lineups. He would be a major disappointment if he is not on the team when the season starts.


It is pretty obvious, to me anyway, that the Flames management does not have any confidence in internal development. They are constantly scouring the waiver wire for line-up fillers: Versteeg, Bartkowski, Lazar, Shore, Glass, Hrivik and Prout are recent examples of roster fillers for games that could (maybe should) be filled with internal developed prospects.

The Flames have 5 regular players that spent time in the Flames development:

Gio, Brodie, Kulak, Hathaway and Jankowski. Only 3 under the current management group.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Have you considered where the cupboards were at four or five years ago?

No. Not at all. This is a snapshot of the prospects today. Where they were, where they're trending, doesn't matter.

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I would also argue that Andersson, Valimaki, Parsons and Dube are much better than simply depth players as far as potential goes.

I would agree that those players have great potential. And every fanbase will argue the same for their top prospects. I was saying similar things about Nemisz, Wahl, Erixon and Howse when only Backlund ended up being a regular of that crop. It's the issue with being a fan, it's hard not to be a homer. With an emphasis on high-end talent, "sure-things," and less emphasis on goalie crapshoots, it's a fair ranking.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames have 5 regular players that spent time in the Flames development:

Gio, Brodie, Kulak, Hathaway and Jankowski. Only 3 under the current management group.

Backlund.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Not sure if it's been posted but the Bruins and Preds are 27/26. I would have thought Tolvinen alone would be enough to get the Preds a little higher than that.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

No. Not at all. This is a snapshot of the prospects today. Where they were, where they're trending, doesn't matter.



I would agree that those players have great potential. And every fanbase will argue the same for their top prospects. I was saying similar things about Nemisz, Wahl, Erixon and Howse when only Backlund ended up being a regular of that crop. It's the issue with being a fan, it's hard not to be a homer. With an emphasis on high-end talent, "sure-things," and less emphasis on goalie crapshoots, it's a fair ranking.

I thought Mitch Wahl was a huge steal in the 2nd round and going to be an excellent offensive producer. Not so much as it turns out.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

He was an 2nd team AHL all star last year (only player in Flames org to be so honored). He only played 10 games in the NHL last year.

He is a prospect if he was with the Bruins,

If the Bruins gave him 26 more games he is a RFA. Bruins prospects Kuraly and Bjork who had less NHL experience at the start of the season were played ahead of Czarnik.

As to him being the Flames top prospect I will crowd source CP. (same strategy you employed to support your opinion on the Athletic underrating the Flames management).

Check the Building The 2018/19 Flames Roster thread an see that Czarnik is penciled in on all the proposed CP lineups. He would be a major disappointment if he is not on the team when the season starts.


It is pretty obvious, to me anyway, that the Flames management does not have any confidence in internal development. They are constantly scouring the waiver wire for line-up fillers: Versteeg, Bartkowski, Lazar, Shore, Glass, Hrivik and Prout are recent examples of roster fillers for games that could (maybe should) be filled with internal developed prospects.

The Flames have 5 regular players that spent time in the Flames development:

Gio, Brodie, Kulak, Hathaway and Jankowski. Only 3 under the current management group.

Dude you are way out ot lunch.

Nobody on this site is trying to diminish Czarnik vs the prospect pool all the while penciling him in and looking two faced ... we've eliminated him from the wording prospect altogether.

He's 26 in December and he has 50+ NHL games. Same reason others didn't qualify.

You can call him whatever you want but this little witch hunt will have few takers because you're on an island.

He's a good tweener bet with a decent UFA contract sprung loose because the Bruins didn't play him enough. I wouldn't call that a prospect but you certainly can.

The rest of your post about development is pretty half baked. Nobody should be giving spots to young players, they have to earn it. Last year only Jankowski did, this year it looks like they think otherwise and have created a space.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

No. Not at all. This is a snapshot of the prospects today. Where they were, where they're trending, doesn't matter.



I would agree that those players have great potential. And every fanbase will argue the same for their top prospects. I was saying similar things about Nemisz, Wahl, Erixon and Howse when only Backlund ended up being a regular of that crop. It's the issue with being a fan, it's hard not to be a homer. With an emphasis on high-end talent, "sure-things," and less emphasis on goalie crapshoots, it's a fair ranking.

Yes and no.

I agree to a large extent, but Nemisz, Wahl and Howse were much more Ruzicka and Joly than they were Dube and Mangiapane ... Foo.

They never got it done at the AHL level and had that maybe vibe that never went to the positive.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I thought Mitch Wahl was a huge steal in the 2nd round and going to be an excellent offensive producer. Not so much as it turns out.

In was a big fan of Wahl. It's too bad that his career was derailed so badly by injuries.

[Redlan]

The most disappointing thing regarding the article to me is Pronman uses the term "Farm System" when this is really just discusses the prospects. If we are going to discuss the "System", one would have to evaluate graduated players, how well they adjusted (short term) and their level of success (long term). This would also include not just the Flame players but one developed, or mainly developed, in the Flames system that are now in other NHL cities.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yes and no.

I agree to a large extent, but Nemisz, Wahl and Howse were much more Ruzicka and Joly than they were Dube and Mangiapane ... Foo.

They never got it done at the AHL level and had that maybe vibe that never went to the positive.

I don't want to insult the current crop, it's not my intention. But Foo's 24 and put up 40 points in the AHL. If Spencer's the bar to "get it done," Reinhart, Granlund, Knight, Agostino, Poirier, Arnold, all had better seasons at younger age in recent years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I don't want to insult the current crop, it's not my intention. Foo's 24 and put up 40 points in the AHL. If Spencer's the bar to "get it done," Reinhart, Granlund, Knight, Agostino, Poirier, Arnold, all had better seasons at younger age in recent years.

OK I'll pull Foo aside from Mangiapane and Dube if you want.

But ... Nemisz, Wahl and Howse never came close, they were junior scorers that couldn't make the adjustment to pro hockey.

Foo is an older prospect and has a lot tighter of a window to get it done. Last year his splits suggest he may have found it in the second half but he's a long way from home and cool.

2017 29 games .445 PPG
2018 33 games .790 PPG

I certainly get your point but there is a division to this and the Flames have a few forwards above the Nemisz line.

[Freeway]

The Flames also had (a) the horrible habit of drafting the same "type" of player for much of the early 2000s and (b) some awful luck with injuries. Wahl could've been better had it not been for a massive concussion that really hurt his development.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Freeway

The Flames also had (a) the horrible habit of drafting the same "type" of player for much of the early 2000s and (b) some awful luck with injuries. Wahl could've been better had it not been for a massive concussion that really hurt his development.

They also only drafted a single time in the second round between 2004-2010

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I thought Mitch Wahl was a huge steal in the 2nd round and going to be an excellent offensive producer. Not so much as it turns out.

I was so angry that weekend. I had two players that were tops on my avoid list, #1 was Nemisz, #2 was Wahl. Really did not like the make up of either player and just delighted that the Flames picked them both. Had similar feelings about Hunter Smith before he was drafted too (he was #1 that year for me).

[AC]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

I was so angry that weekend. I had two players that were tops on my avoid list, #1 was Nemisz, #2 was Wahl. Really did not like the make up of either player and just delighted that the Flames picked them both. Had similar feelings about Hunter Smith before he was drafted too (he was #1 that year for me).

You were quite high on Nemisz for a while IIRC actually. I remember you being one of his strongest supporters when he was a Flames prospect.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If I had to guess which two players I think are most likely to make it are Bouma and Wahl.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

The players he has drafted were players that filled out some organizational depth and now that we have a deep farm team, Sutter is more apt to take more skilled guys like Backlund Negrin, Nemisz, and Wahl.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Oh I know, you need to be able to absorb a guy like Ryder disappearing into the ether, but the fact that we seem to have an abundance of guys that may become good NHL D-men, means that we can focus on drafting more guys like Nemisz, Wahl, and Backlund instead of needing to draft some D-men.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

2005, 2 players from it (keetley, Sutter), 4 more possible guys (Pelech, Baldwin, Watt, Lalande)
2006, 0 players thus far, 4 possible (Irving, Armstrong, Marvin, Carpentier)
2007, 1 player thus far (backlund), 2 more possible guys (Aulie, Negrin)
2008, too soon to tell, but Nemisz and Wahl look like locks to be NHLers....

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Players that Sutter has drafted that have top 2 line potential

Backlund, Nemisz, Wahl, Armstrong

Yeah, really hated those picks back then...

Pretty much Exhibit A on prospect homerism. No offence Caged Great because, as I said, I was in the same boat. But it's pretty much always the same. High potential prospects, until they bust, and then it's "well this is different, those past prospects weren't as good."

Originally Posted by moon

I am not sure what is worse the fact that they drafted Erixson or the fact that they had him in their top 10.

Doesn't say much about the Flames scouts.

Such a disappointing choice.

You listed 8 prospects with NHL potential (and another half dozen) and all but one of them busted.

[Robbob]

Oooh. It's opposite day!

[Oling_Roachinen]

That 2008-2010 era really isn't much different than today when you go back and read posts about the abundance of amazing defenseman prospects they have.

Flames have just too many defenseman on the roster when they need to make room for Pardy, Pelech, Negrin and Aulie. All of whom have either proven they are NHL ready or will in the next year!

Especially ironic since Brodie was in the farm system and often an afterthought...here's some sample Flames "prospect lineup" from 2008 where Brodie's the extra-defenseman just to show how wrong we can be about our own prospects:

Pelech - Pardy
Baldwin - Negrin
Aulie - Wilson
Brodie

John Negrin - Matt Pelech
Keith Aulie - Gord Baldwin
Per Jonsson - Alexander Deilert
TJ Brodie

Pelech-Negrin
Pardy-Baldwin
Aulie-Brodie
Deilert

Hopefully it turns out differently, but if you look at posts in the 2009 offseason it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Pelech was an NHL player after his 5 game stint, it was just whether or not he would be a top pairing defender. Pelech would go on to play 0 more games with the Flames.

And then we throw Erixon into the mix and start talking about his Lidstrom-like properties. Ha.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

That 2008-2010 era really isn't much different than today when you go back and read posts about the abundance of amazing defenseman prospects they have.

Flames have just too many defenseman on the roster when they need to make room for Pardy, Pelech, Negrin and Aulie. All of whom have either proven they are NHL ready or will in the next year!

Especially ironic since Brodie was in the farm system and often an afterthought...here's some sample Flames "prospect lineup" from 2008 where Brodie's the extra-defenseman just to show how wrong we can be about our own prospects:


Hopefully it turns out differently, but if you look at posts in the 2009 offseason it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that Pelech was an NHL player after his 5 game stint, it was just whether or not he would be a top pairing defender. Pelech would go on to play 0 more games with the Flames.

And then we throw Erixon into the mix and start talking about his Lidstrom-like properties. Ha.

Honestly people had Pelech as a top pairing defender four years after he was drafted?

I think the issue with a message board is a single over zealous fan can sometimes get used to paint the whole board.

I would doubt that view would come anywhere close to a consensus.

This was my comment in the prospect ranking that year ...

Matt Pelech (5) – Big defensemen are great assets to hold, but even greater when they approach the game with a S.O.B. attitude. Pelech played five games last fall and didn’t look all that out of place. Would have been a lock for the roster this year until Darryl Sutter got to work on blueline depth this summer. Will they make room for him if he’s progressed

So yeah he was coming, but "make room if he progressed" is hardly suggesting he was top pairing.

In fact the prospect rankings that summer had him 3rd up from 5th behind Irving and Backlund.

Every fan base has optimism, but I don't think we as a group were over shooting these players. We were hopeful, but not slotting upper roster spots for them.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Honestly people had Pelech as a top pairing defender four years after he was drafted?

I think the issue with a message board is a single over zealous fan can sometimes get used to paint the whole board.

I would doubt that view would come anywhere close to a consensus.

This was my comment in the prospect ranking that year ...



So yeah he was coming, but "make room if he progressed" is hardly suggesting he was top pairing.

In fact the prospect rankings that summer had him 3rd up from 5th behind Irving and Backlund.

Every fan base has optimism, but I don't think we as a group were over shooting these players. We were hopeful, but not slotting upper roster spots for them.

Really?

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Based on this, I really question your ability to evaluate any prospects. There are several players on the Flames blueline (Pelech, Negrin, Erixson, Brodie) that have very promising top-four potential. None of these players appears to have a ceiling in the bottom-pairing; of course it remains to be seen if any or all of them can meet their potential, but if all you see is "bottom pairing d-men", then you are not seeing clearly.

As for the Flames crop of forwards, it is admittedly thin, but I would argue that there is some potential for at least a few players outside of Backlund to become top-six NHLers. Wahl, Howse, and Nemitz all appear to have top-six abilities; again, whether or not they reach their potential is another matter, but your conclusion that they are no better than "occasional" third-liners is exceedingly short-sighted.