The Athletic: Top 50 drafted NHL prospects

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Anyone can have an off year. That doesn't necessarily derail their talent or projected upside.

Do you think Puljujarvi is garbage?

I would say Puljujarvi's projected upside has shrank since draft day, if we are going by results thus far.


I agree it might not derail a prospects upside if they have an off year, but the prospects that become impact NHLers generally improve season over season until they make the NHL.

There are always exceptions, but when you look at drafted prospects the ones who make the NHL are exceptions to begin with.

Parsons as a second rounder had a 25% chance on draft day to make the show. Every up season thereafter improves his stock, and down seasons lower it. So now with a down season under his belt, Parsons has to be an exception in a group of exceptions to get back on track.

Gillies had a better transition to pros, so that is why I would rank him as a better prospect at this point in time. He didn't have any real down seasons on his way to NHL games, just missed time to injury.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Do you think this is mostly due to draft position/fame?

I equate it to shiny bobble syndrome. Parsons was a highly touted junior goaltender, no better than Matt Keetley, Kevin Lelande, or Leland Irving, but the latest who played well as an older prospect in junior hockey. His first year in pro exposed all of those weaknesses identified by some on this board. He's got a long way to go as a pro, and he may never end up playing in the NHL unless his unbridled enthusiasm is controlled. He's a junior level goaltender with a number of bad habits to break.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Huge fan of Fox but I'd take Valimaki over him every single time. Valimaki is going to be a top pairing guy for 10+ years

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by New Era

I equate it to shiny bobble syndrome. Parsons was a highly touted junior goaltender, no better than Matt Keetley, Kevin Lelande, or Leland Irving, but the latest who played well as an older prospect in junior hockey. His first year in pro exposed all of those weaknesses identified by some on this board. He's got a long way to go as a pro, and he may never end up playing in the NHL unless his unbridled enthusiasm is controlled. He's a junior level goaltender with a number of bad habits to break.

That's a terrible take

Shiny bobble?
Keetley, Lelande and Irving?
Exposed?
Older prospect?

The guy won a WJC gold as the MVP six months after he was drafted then came back for his 19th year and carried a decimated London team through two rounds of playoffs.

Goalies are never straight line in development, you take it with a grain and salt and watch if he gets back on track. He may, he may not.

But he isn't shiny bobble syndrome as non Calgary publications had him as Calgary's best prospect.

That's just silly.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I bet Valimaki winds up better than Fox.

No Parsons, eh?

he was beyond bad last year. Cant question that most dont see him as a top pro player.

[savemedrzaius]

I also think when a player has a good WJ it inflates their stock too much in the eyes of fans.

Justin Pogge comes to mind for me. A guy who had a great world juniors and won a gold but could never put it together in the pros.

[droopydrew19]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I found it curious that despite Parson's poor season, he still ended up ranked higher than Gillies or Rittich on the Calgarypuck prospect ranking.

Prospects that become impact NHL players generally improve rapidly season over season until they reach the NHL.

Parsons had a down season his first year in the AHL. Worse than Gillies, but is still ranked above.

Do you think this is mostly due to draft position/fame?

Persons was injured much of the year. It didn’t get much media attention

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

Justin Pogge comes to mind for me. A guy who had a great world juniors and won a gold but could never put it together in the pros.

A friend of mine who is a die hard leafs fan once said to me that trading Tukka Rask was no big deal since Pogge was a better goalie.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

A friend of mine who is a die hard leafs fan once said to me that trading Tukka Rask was no big deal since Pogge was a better goalie.

I think a lot of people thought this. JFJ obviously thought this. Pogge had one of the best World Juniors ever statistically.

Which is why until a goalie can at least put up good numbers in the AHL they aren't much to pin your hopes on.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by savemedrzaius

I also think when a player has a good WJ it inflates their stock too much in the eyes of fans.

Justin Pogge comes to mind for me. A guy who had a great world juniors and won a gold but could never put it together in the pros.

No goaltender regardless of pedigree is a sure thing, their roads are bumpier than any skater.

So nobody is saying a guy that was dominant in a World Junior tournament is guaranteed anything. But his performance the next year in the OHL was almost more impressive, and the kid has only had one pro season, which is always an adjustment.

He may fizzle out completely, but his pro sample size is considerably too small to write the kid off given the trials and tribulations of goaltenders.

[ricardodw]

How in the world can anyone make a valid comparison between Fox and Valimaki? Fox playing against older players, less games, more practices.

Fox has had Gaudreau like success at the NCAA level. He has been the best player on any team he is on like Gaudreau. He had 40 pts in 35 games as an 18 year old rookie defenseman in the NCAA. Gaudreau had 44 pts in 44 games in Draft +1.

I do not buy the "likely won't sign with the Flames discount" that CP has granted management to treat Fox like a 3rd round pick. I am pretty sure that the Flames held their water when teams came around asking for Gaudreau as a sweetener in a trade deal after his first 2 years in the NCAA with the same sort of feelings that he would rather play on the east coast.

Fox has said that he will jump to the NHL when he is sure he will have an impact at the NHL level. If he has the Junior year jump that Gaudreau had he will be playing with Carolina next year. He will be faced with earning no money for another year or burning a year of his ELC by playing a game or 2 with the Canes and earning 1 M instead of playing a year for free.

Gaudreau made an extra 7-8 Million by not playing his 4th year at the NCAA.

Hanifin had 23 pts in 37 NCAA games as a freshman and played a full year in the NHL the next season.


At the very least Fox would have been the #2 Flame prospect had the Flames sweetened Hamilton/Ferland pot with a 3rd round pick or Kylington for instance.

There is a chance that Fox might be the best player in the Hamilton trade in 5 years.

[Jiri Hrdina]

How did management treat Fox like a third round pick
For years you gummed up this board slamming Hamilton and now you seem to be finding any chance to slam the trade that shipped him out
You seem to have little respect to others here acting like everyone has one opinion
What’s your endgame here?

[Enoch Root]

Hanifin had that season in the NCAA as a 17/18 year old. Fox's first NCAA year was as a 18/19 year old.

Hanifin is 6'3" 206 lbs, Fox is 5'10" 180

Hanifin is an elite skater, while Fox is a weak skater

Hanifin plays a 200ft game and has some physicality. Fox is essentially a PP specialist.

And how can anyone compare Valimaki and Fox? lol

Yes, there is a chance Fox might be the best player in the deal 5 years from now, but it is a very remote chance.

[Enoch Root]

As a 19/20 year old, Fox had 28 points in the NCAA

As a 19/20 year old, Hanifin had 29 points in the NHL

As a 19 year old, Hamilton had 16 points in 42 NHL games.

The chance that Fox becomes a best player in that trade is maybe 5%, at most (close to 0% IMO).

[Flash Walken]

Cupboards are stocked!

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

How did management treat Fox like a third round pick
For years you gummed up this board slamming Hamilton and now you seem to be finding any chance to slam the trade that shipped him out
You seem to have little respect to others here acting like everyone has one opinion
What’s your endgame here?

What is anyone's end game?

We have a what I would assume unbiased analysis of prospects and it puts Fox tied with Valimaki.

There are posters who unequivocally say that Valimaki is a better prospect than Fox.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

What is anyone's end game?

For most here it is discussion. But you consistently take such an oppositional stance on matters pertaining to the Flames—frequently promoting such absurd ideas that it is extremely difficult to take you seriously at all.

We have a what I would assume unbiased analysis of prospects and it puts Fox tied with Valimaki.

There are posters who unequivocally say that Valimaki is a better prospect than Fox.

Baises aside (we all have them, and you are NOT exempt), why would you think that everyone posting on this site shares precisely the same opinions, and for the same reasons?

But beyond all that, the case many make for viewing Valimaki as the superior prospect is based on more concretely established factors like size (Valimaki is a good deal bigger) and skating skill (Valimaki skates a hell of a lot better). People here project Valimaki as a better prospect than Fox because he very likely is.

But moreover, your typically (and conveniently) flat, wooden tendency to ignore all mitigating factors and simply compare numbers has led you to first complain about comparing Valimaki to Fox, and then proceed to compare Fox to Gaudreau of all players! Your discussion above falls completely flat by your failure to account for several crucial differences such as the fact that Fox dominates the ECAC, while Gaudreau (and Hanifin!) played their college hockey in the much more highly competitive Hockey East.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

What is anyone's end game?

We have a what I would assume unbiased analysis of prospects and it puts Fox tied with Valimaki.

There are posters who unequivocally say that Valimaki is a better prospect than Fox.

In the column the author himself admits to having bias based on factors like players he’s seen more often. Just look at how he talks about a guy like Ambramov
So your assumption is wrong according to the author himself

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

In the column the author himself admits to having bias based on factors like players he’s seen more often. Just look at how he talks about a guy like Ambramov...

Also, the author has Fox and Valimaki slotted together at #34 and #35. I suspect for him it is something of a coin toss as to whom he prefers, and hardly surprising that others would have Valimaki ranked ahead of Fox.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Cupboards are stocked!

Why throw up a fly-by like that? Ignoring the fact that on average there are only 1.6 prospects per team in a top 50 ranking, let's take a look at the organizational depth for ages 25 and under...

Top 6/4: Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Lindholm, Hanifin

In the NHL: Bennett, Jankowski, Kulak, Andersson, Rittich, Lazar

Knocking on the door: Czarnik, Foo, Mangiapane, Gillies

Solid prospects: Valimaki, Dube, Parsons, Kylington

Are there 10 teams in better shape than that? I think it would be hard to list more than 5.