[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Bingo was replying to this in particular:

and ...

Originally Posted by Itse

Huh? None of that makes sense. Corsi does not consider pressure or actual possession time. It's a shot calculator. It doesn't care how long you had the puck before shooting it.

If you take shots from everywhere and the opposition doesn't, you'll likely get an advantageous corsi because the opposition is more likely to lose the puck in some other way than by shooting it away, such as getting their cross-crease pass intercepted.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bingo

What is your endgame here?

To prove the Flames were a perimeter team that were shot happy driving up corsi stats without actual scoring chances?

Because the stats just don't support any of that.

Actually, they kinda do. You're far more likely to miss shots the farther from the net you get. If the Flames displayed record setting incompetence in at getting pucks on goal, that itself serves as an indication that too many shot attempts were coming from low percentage areas.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Actually, they kinda do. You're far more likely to miss shots the farther from the net you get. If the Flames displayed record setting incompetence in at getting pucks on goal, that itself serves as an indication that too many shot attempts were coming from low percentage areas.

Premise A: most missed-shots originate from low-percentage shooting areas.
Premise B: the Flames set a record for most missed shots.
Conclusion: the Flames were shooting frequently from low percentage areas.

No. That doesn't add up. Even if we do agree that most of the Flames missed shots were from low percentage areas (I don't in the absence of evidence), this does not indicate anything at all about shots that actually hit the net. On the contrary, there are actual figures available which show that the Flames rather were among the more productive teams in generating shots from high percentage areas.

[Bingo]

Dude they were top 3 in shot attempts from home plate. The stats don’t support this narrative. Let it go


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[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dude they were top 3 in shot attempts from home plate. The stats don’t support this narrative. Let it go


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My take is that while we did get the puck into the home plate area, we were so focused of breaking in as a squad that we gave he other team time to set up defensively. This means shooting players need to get the puck by a blocking player, which I think lead to shots being forced wide or high, even from good shooting positions.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Dude they were top 3 in shot attempts from home plate. The stats don’t support this narrative. Let it go

Two things.

First, being top three in shots attempts from home plate does not disprove the assertion that the Flames under Gulutzan were a 'shoot from anywhere' team. Not only are those not mutually exclusive, but if the team is the latter, you would actually expect the former to also be high.

Second, it's a little rich to complain about narrative given how some are holding onto Corsi as a crutch to try and handwave away the incompetence of the system and how the stats demonstrated just how awful it was.

[GranteedEV]

Shooting in the home plate might be preferable, but if the goalie is stationary and set before you take your shot, you're probably not going to have much net to shoot at. You shouldn't have to have Hamilton or Monahan's top 5%er wrister to score goals. Maybe we weren't a pure "perimeter" team but that doesn't mean we were a team that took the best possible shots. Sometimes even perimeter shots are more dangerous if they get the goalie out of position.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Shooting in the home plate might be preferable, but if the goalie is stationary and set before you take your shot, you're probably not going to have much net to shoot at. You shouldn't have to have Hamilton or Monahan's top 5%er wrister to score goals. Maybe we weren't a pure "perimeter" team but that doesn't mean we were a team that took the best possible shots. Sometimes even perimeter shots are more dangerous if they get the goalie out of position.

Especially if the goalie is Brian Elliot.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Shooting in the home plate might be preferable, but if the goalie is stationary and set before you take your shot, you're probably not going to have much net to shoot at. You shouldn't have to have Hamilton or Monahan's top 5%er wrister to score goals. Maybe we weren't a pure "perimeter" team but that doesn't mean we were a team that took the best possible shots. Sometimes even perimeter shots are more dangerous if they get the goalie out of position.

Stationary and set with a player in the slot? This does not happen in the NHL unless you are on a breakaway. You don’t generally see players have time to take with the puck in the slot.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Two things.

First, being top three in shots attempts from home plate does not disprove the assertion that the Flames under Gulutzan were a 'shoot from anywhere' team. Not only are those not mutually exclusive, but if the team is the latter, you would actually expect the former to also be high.

If I understand what you are saying—that the high generation of shots from high quality areas does not nullify the possibility that a team is also generating high volumes of shots from low percentage areas—then I don't see the problem. If the team is getting tonnes of shots from high percentage areas, then why care about shots generated from elsewhere?

Second, it's a little rich to complain about narrative given how some are holding onto Corsi as a crutch to try and handwave away the incompetence of the system and how the stats demonstrated just how awful it was.

So, who is doing this? And moreover, what statistics specifically demonstrate the "incompetence" of the system?

I am still of the mind that the team's issues last year were less about "the system" than they were about execution and player deployment, but also that these problems were the responsibility of the coaching staff to correct, but which they failed to do so. Like you, my understanding of the situation is an interpretation of the available data, but the data themselves don't necessarily "demonstrate" anything on their own.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Two things.

First, being top three in shots attempts from home plate does not disprove the assertion that the Flames under Gulutzan were a 'shoot from anywhere' team. Not only are those not mutually exclusive, but if the team is the latter, you would actually expect the former to also be high.

Second, it's a little rich to complain about narrative given how some are holding onto Corsi as a crutch to try and handwave away the incompetence of the system and how the stats demonstrated just how awful it was.

Rich? How so?

I've pointed out numerous times that I think they let the defenders get set within the scoring areas meaning they had less to shoot for resulting in low conversion rates and shooting wide a lot.

I've said it several times.

This isn't defending a system, but it's certainly dismissing the idea that you can "fake corsi" or that teams that shoot from everywhere can have high corsi stats.

You do bring up an interesting thought though? Non dangerous corsi attempts.

The Flames were ranked

3rd in CF
3rd in CF%
4th in HDCF
2nd in HDCF%
3rd in NonDangerCF
4th in NonDangerCF%

So yeah lots of pucks towards the net, but they're not proving out to be a perimeter team.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Rich? How so?

I've pointed out numerous times that I think they let the defenders get set within the scoring areas meaning they had less to shoot for resulting in low conversion rates and shooting wide a lot.

I've said it several times.

This isn't defending a system, but it's certainly dismissing the idea that you can "fake corsi" or that teams that shoot from everywhere can have high corsi stats.

You do bring up an interesting thought though? Non dangerous corsi attempts.

The Flames were ranked

3rd in CF
3rd in CF%
4th in HDCF
2nd in HDCF%
3rd in NonDangerCF
4th in NonDangerCF%

So yeah lots of pucks towards the net, but they're not proving out to be a perimeter team.

I'm curious if you happen to know where Carolina sat in the league on these metrics?

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I'm curious if you happen to know where Carolina sat in the league on these metrics?

IIRC, top one two in the league and not out of the top five in a couple of areas. Deep into the bill Peter's thread lies those stats.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Bingo

The Flames were ranked

3rd in CF
3rd in CF%
4th in HDCF
2nd in HDCF%
3rd in NonDangerCF
4th in NonDangerCF%

So yeah lots of pucks towards the net, but they're not proving out to be a perimeter team.

Is there anywhere that breaks down those numbers for shots on goal and goals scored?

Looking at the NHL stats page, the Flames were 6th overall in shots per game, and 27th overall in goals for. So, whatever their plan was, it clearly didn't work.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by getbak

Is there anywhere that breaks down those numbers for shots on goal and goals scored?

Looking at the NHL stats page, the Flames were 6th overall in shots per game, and 27th overall in goals for. So, whatever their plan was, it clearly didn't work.

And nobody is debating that.

Through failure of system, execution or both their offense didn't get it done.

[Singularity]

You guys are arguing about advanced stats, but a lot of the times we don't pass the eye test. We saw glimpses when the system worked great and everything looked awesome, but that happened rarely.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Singularity

You guys are arguing about advanced stats, but a lot of the times we don't pass the eye test. We saw glimpses when the system worked great and everything looked awesome, but that happened rarely.

They looked like a team of robots going through the motions even when they were winning. It was some of the least entertaining Flames hockey we have seen in years.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think they let the defenders get set within the scoring areas meaning they had less to shoot for resulting in low conversion rates and shooting wide a lot.........This isn't defending a system, but it's certainly dismissing the idea that you can "fake corsi" or that teams that shoot from everywhere can have high corsi stats.

I tried to distill this down to these two parts. There is no doubt they had lots of high danger chances and low shooting percentage.

I like the thinking that “they let defenders get set”, but i don’t recall seeing this kind of pattern...is there analysis of this? Are you meaning they took too much time to get shot off? That is read/react in a high tempo game...not something that GG system would demand unless he told the non-Gaudreau players to dumb down the creativity (I think he limited Bennett to a simple game).

I wonder how many high danger chances came right after a low danger chance. Funnel to the net (low danger) and hope for rebounds, shots off end boards, tips (high danger).

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

I tried to distill this down to these two parts. There is no doubt they had lots of high danger chances and low shooting percentage.

I like the thinking that “they let defenders get set”, but i don’t recall seeing this kind of pattern...is there analysis of this? Are you meaning they took too much time to get shot off? That is read/react in a high tempo game...not something that GG system would demand unless he told the non-Gaudreau players to dumb down the creativity (I think he limited Bennett to a simple game).

I wonder how many high danger chances came right after a low danger chance. Funnel to the net (low danger) and hope for rebounds, shots off end boards, tips (high danger).

I remember a lot games where there were like six players right around the crease jamming and hacking away. High danger area but low danger chances.

[Snuffleupagus]

I love hockey, I hate advanced stats especially in the summer. October can't come fast enough!