[Trade] Elias Lindholm + Noah Hanifin to Flames for D. Hamilton, Micheal Ferland, & Adam Fox

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Wow. This has to be one of the shallowest "deep dives" I have read on this forum. I was expecting something esoteric to make the likes of Bingo, GrantedEV or CorsiHockeyLeague blush, and all this amounts to is, "because points!"

Sorry that I don’t feel the need to rehash all the various opinions of other writers to make a point. I’m not going to though. Clearly ‘because of points’ wouldn’t be a great ‘deep dive’ as Hamilton’s value went far beyond ‘because of points’. I guess I thought that Hamilton’s value has been established by numerous writers before that it wasn’t necessary for me to post a ten thousand word essay to establish how good he is. #### off.

[CaptainCrunch]

Again go back to the comments by Brad Treliving about Fox where he said concerning Fox that "There was a question that we could sign him".


that's as hard as a GM can go in public without saying "F this ungrateful bastard he doesn't want to be here"


And this to me sounds like your calling him at least one of our best prospects. Not blue chip, but one of our best prospects

let’s through one of our best prospects in the deal for ####s

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by blender

Link it up. I'd like to see it.

On my phone now but I will just say from here, look at anything Kent Wilson has opined or if you want a less Flames-centric POV, Carolyn Wilke has written about how she sees it.

[FiveSeven]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Hamilton is absolutely, factually, miles better than Hanifin, now and at similar stages in their respective careers.

Lindholm is better than Ferland but it’s not even close to closing up the prior chasm, without even considering Fox

3-7 goals extra from Hamilton, compared to Hanafin - Not a big deal.
10-20 more points from Hamilton - But they've scored the EXACT same amount in their first 3 years.
Hanafin will no doubt close the gap offensively but might not be as scoring gifted, but is better defensively, isn't soft as butter, doesn't take stupid or lazy penalties consistently. That alone probably offsets goals scored with goals not allowed.

So when I do my 'deep level analysis' I see the gap between them as VERY small, siding with Hamilton currently, when most things are considered. That can easily and most likely will shift to Hanifin's favor as soon as next season IMO. This isn't even counting, asset management and locker room chemistry or riding shotgun with GIO which undoubtedly plays a role.

Ferland for Lindholm is where the biggest gap is made. I believe we have seen Ferland play his best Hockey and left us wanting. Lindholm will be out to prove he's not gotten complacent and will be playing with better players on a better team, so I see him becoming a 50-60, 20 goal player, where I believe Ferland will get worse.

I consider it an even trade but could easily go into Calgary's favor.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Again go back to the comments by Brad Treliving about Fox where he said concerning Fox that "There was a question that we could sign him".


that's as hard as a GM can go in public without saying "F this ungrateful bastard he doesn't want to be here"


And this to me sounds like your calling him at least one of our best prospects. Not blue chip, but one of our best prospects

Yes. Except I think we lost the trade before they threw him in. And he absolutely was one of our best prospects. Whether we could sign him is another conversation and his value becomes apart of that, but he shouldn’t have been a throw in on a deal we already lost.

[TopChed]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Hamilton is absolutely, factually, miles better than Hanifin, now and at similar stages in their respective careers.

This is ridiculous hyperbole. Hamilton went back to junior for a year and a half after his draft. Hanifin stepped into the NHL immediately. His offensive numbers have also been basically the same as Hamilton's. I have no idea how you can say that Hamilton is so much better at any matching stage of their careers to this point.

Dougie Hamilton: draft + 1 season - 42 gp, 5 g, 16 p
Dougie Hamilton: draft + 2 season - 64 gp, 7 g, 25 p

Noah Hanifin: draft season - 79 gp, 4 g, 22 p
Noah Hanifin: draft + 1 season - 81 gp, 4 g, 29 p
Noah Hanifin: draft + 2 season - 79 gp, 10 g, 32 p

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Hamilton is absolutely, factually, miles better than Hanifin, now and at similar stages in their respective careers.

Lindholm is better than Ferland but it’s not even close to closing up the prior chasm, without even considering Fox

Even if that is true (and I don't think it is) this trade wasn't necessarily about upgrading pieces. It was about upgrading the fit.

On paper we had one of the best D in the NHL. But our D wasn't very good. If the new fit translates to better performance on the ice then I don't care how many colorful charts tell me Hanafin is inferior to Hamilton.

We needed a shake up, it had to be a hockey trade, and we got two pieces that fit the mould and who we control for a long time. We lost a guy that apparently wasn't a cultural fit, one that wasn't a contractual fit beyond this season, and one we were going to be unable to sign.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by FiveSeven

3-7 goals extra from Hamilton, compared to Hanafin - Not a big deal.
10-20 more points from Hamilton - But they've scored the EXACT same amount in their first 3 years.
Hanafin will no doubt close the gap offensively but might not be as scoring gifted, but is better defensively, isn't soft as butter, doesn't take stupid or lazy penalties consistently. That alone probably offsets goals scored with goals not allowed.

So when I do my 'deep level analysis' I see the gap between them as VERY small, siding with Hamilton currently, when most things are considered. That can easily and most likely will shift to Hanifin's favor as soon as next season IMO. This isn't even counting, asset management and locker room chemistry or riding shotgun with GIO which undoubtedly plays a role.

Ferland for Lindholm is where the biggest gap is made. I believe we have seen Ferland play his best Hockey and left us wanting. Lindholm will be out to prove he's not gotten complacent and will be playing with better players on a better team, so I see him becoming a 50-60, 20 goal player, where I believe Ferland will get worse.

I consider it an even trade but could easily go into Calgary's favor.

All I can say, as a fan, is that I hope you’re right. I think you’re clearly dismissing Hamilton’s with the silly ‘soft as butter’ #### and the counting stats comparisons but that said... I do hope you’re right. Trade looks bad in my eyes right now but if Lindholm clicks and Hanifin approaches what Dougie is currently then it’ll be fine. Lotta ifs tho.

[CaptainCrunch]

Looking at the article by Wilson, or what I could read because I refuse to pay for it. He seems to think that the Flames paid a high price but bought in two tremendous players that will help them now.



As a side note they are two really good players and both have really high ceilings.


Yes we paid for that, but your going to pay for that for a 21 year old gifted defenseman that's been in the NHL for three seasons, and a 23 year old gifted forward.


Ferland doesn't have that ceiling, and never will, I agree with what others have said, with Ferland he is what he is now, and with a year to Free Agency its likely that you'll have to over pay to keep him. Hamilton is excellent, nobody doubts that, but I don't think its as big of a chasim as some are making it out to be, Hamilton at the same age had the same questions as Hanifin, and similar results but on a much better team playing with a future hall of famer in Chara.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Even if that is true (and I don't think it is) this trade wasn't necessarily about upgrading pieces. It was about upgrading the fit.

On paper we had one of the best D in the NHL. But our D wasn't very good. If the new fit translates to better performance on the ice then I don't care how many colorful charts tell me Hanafin is inferior to Hamilton.

We needed a shake up, it had to be a hockey trade, and we got two pieces that fit the mould and who we control for a long time. We lost a guy that apparently wasn't a cultural fit, one that wasn't a contractual fit beyond this season, and one we were going to be unable to sign.

That’s fair. I feel they should have been able to extract a lot more out of an excellent RH D like Hamilton that is on an excellent contract. But if everything clicks then fine. But let’s not get to excited about getting a coach from a bad team and then trading for players from the same bad team. Seems like a silly direction to me.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by TopChed

This is ridiculous hyperbole. Hamilton went back to junior for a year and a half after his draft. Hanifin stepped into the NHL immediately. His offensive numbers have also been basically the same as Hamilton's. I have no idea how you can say that Hamilton is so much better at any matching stage of their careers to this point.

Dougie Hamilton: draft + 1 season - 42 gp, 5 g, 16 p
Dougie Hamilton: draft + 2 season - 64 gp, 7 g, 25 p

Noah Hanifin: draft season - 79 gp, 4 g, 22 p
Noah Hanifin: draft + 1 season - 81 gp, 4 g, 29 p
Noah Hanifin: draft + 2 season - 79 gp, 10 g, 32 p

Ok but those are just counting stats but if that’s what you prescribe to, I’m not going to bother convincing you otherwise.

I will concede that Hanifin absolutely has a high ceiling and could become a Hamilton type. But Hamilton was already a Hamilton type so that is where I don’t understand the deal.

[savemedrzaius]

Originally Posted by blender

Link it up. I'd like to see it.

I think it was a fair trade and I like Hanifin but there is this from the Athletic:

https://theathletic.com/405836/2018/...s-blockbuster/

Give the Canes an A- and the Flames a C+.

Basically they feel there was no need for the Flames to add Fox as Hanfin/Lindholm for Hamilton/Ferland should have been enough.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

That’s fair. I feel they should have been able to extract a lot more out of an excellent RH D like Hamilton that is on an excellent contract. But if everything clicks then fine. But let’s not get to excited about getting a coach from a bad team and then trading for players from the same bad team. Seems like a silly direction to me.

I don't know what is going to happen on the ice. They shuffled the D around to try and make pieces fit together better. We will see what happens there.

They added some speed and versatility up front. They also added a RH shot and some defensive ability. That should help 5 on 5 and special teams.

But we are still a Smith injury (or drop off) away from serious trouble. Out bottom 6 is also very unpredictable relying on big steps forward (Jankowski, Bennett, Shore), rebounds (Brouwer), or unexpected development (Foo, Mangiapane).

I expect they will upgrade the bottom 6 via free agency. But this season is a gamble that could go either way. If it goes well Treliving will look like a genius. If not, a lot of fingers will be pointed at this trade.

[TopChed]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Ok but those are just counting stats but if that’s what you prescribe to, I’m not going to bother convincing you otherwise.

I will concede that Hanifin absolutely has a high ceiling and could become a Hamilton type. But Hamilton was already a Hamilton type so that is where I don’t understand the deal.

What happened to "absolutely, factually, miles better" at "similar stages in their respective careers"?

If it doesn't show up in stats, feel free to explain how else Hamilton is that much better. Otherwise, as I said, it's ridiculous hyperbole.

[Flamenfame]

Ok usually I am a pessimist around here , but I like this trade a lot ,Lindholm is what he is a consistant .50 ppg player who plays a 2way game and is still young enough thay his ceiling is not reached. Hanifin with his speed can still turn out to be a franchise dman ,

Carolina is horrible at player development ,and the proof of this is 9 straight years missing playoffs while having multiple high picks. What we gave uo 1st of all Fox was not going to sign with the Flames so just mark it as a throw in ,

Hamilton is known to be a loner he gave off theses vibes in Boston as well , you know kinda like a company where every one is engaged and get along for the most part , but then you have that one loner who creeps everyone out .

Hamilton also while being very good on offence was a liability many nights as well. Ferland I will miss high energy and tenacity ,and would get under opposing teams skin , but his stats were all from who he played with , and wont come near that production in Carolina , We have a ton of cap space to dip into FA , and our current RFA's will not cost to much.

[Jacks]

People can argue all day that we paid a dollar and only got back 90 cents but I'm happy with the fit. I think our D is more balanced now, we needed a true top 4 LH and Hanifin fits that perfectly. We needed a skilled RH top 6 forward and Lindholm fits that. Hate to see Ferland go but as we were he would have probably priced himself off the team in a year. Fox wasn't going to sign and has been on the block awhile according to rumour, if he was worth a 1st rounder then we surely would have been traded on Friday. Hamilton is currently the best player but apparently not a fit somehow and was being shopped. He could wow us all with goals but he drove me nuts with the dumb penalties.


I liked the trade when I first heard it and I like it now. If we can lock up both players to long term deals this will be a big win IMO. Can't imagine the trade was made without Tre having a chance to ask the players about extensions so not even worried about that. I think this deal makes us at least equal today and most likely better in a year or two.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

From what I read on the Canes forum Hanifin is similar. I believe that someone said he is -53 in his three years with Carolina. I understand that overall Carolina has been pretty awful but that shouldn't be an excuse for -53.

Please don't use +/- as a real stat on a brutal team, Justin Faulk was a -66 over the same period... and he's pretty damn good.

[Flamenfame]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Please don't use +/- as a real stat on a brutal team, Justin Faulk was a -66 over the same period... and he's pretty damn good.

Faulk is the worst defender in the NHL bar none , out of position constantly , very weak clearing puck and board work also very weak clearing in front of net . His only asset is he is ok on PP brutal defensively , and Faulk does not carry as much value people thinks he does , pro scouts actuallywatch players. Faulk has never had a season where his overall season had any positive impact .

[Jimdon]

I don't understand the argument that Hamilton is terrible defensively and Gio propped him up. The stats and numbers don't back it up at all. Hamilton's numbers were a bit better when he was paired with Gio and Gio' s numbers were a bit better when he was paired with dougie. But it wasn't a big drop off for Hamilton when he was away from Gio.

For a guy that was half of arguably the best pairing in the league last year despite mostly terrible usage by the coaching staff he sure is being scapegoated.

[dammage79]

Just caught myself day dreaming a bit after watching some Lindholm highlights.
I hope Peters builds the PP so that johnny is on the RW and Lindholm on the LW. Just opens up so much more in terms of potential scoring options. And we have the Garbage man there to clean up any spills. Pretty excited at the all the potential this trade has.

time to look forward now folks. Lamenting this does no body any good.