Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
34% of first round picks never become NHL regulars... even though they all look good on draft night
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers
Yeah they showed a stat tonight that said only 56% become regulars.
22% in the 2nd round.
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And those stats are for the 1st round in its entirety. I think you have to break that down into top 10, middle 10, and bottom 10. (And you should probably break the top 10 into top 5 and 2nd 5).
From the top 10, you can
expect a player - it isn't 100%, but you have good odds, and an expectation, that you'll get a player.
The middle 10 is a real lottery. You can get a star and you can get a bust.
For the bottom 10, I believe less than 1 in 3 become regulars. It's a glorified 2nd round. And IMO, fans vastly over-rate the value of late 1st round picks. Yes, I know (and agree) more bullets in the chamber, but the point remains - vastly over-rated.
Had Treliving traded Bennett to get into the bottom half of the first round, that would have been a deal breaker for me. I am a fan right now, but he would have been dead to me if he did that.
Oh and with respect to the Hamonic trade, the (very reasonable) expectation was that the 1st would be from the bottom third, which made the trade a very good one IMO. Unfortunately, this was a very bad year for things to fall apart for the team.
