2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Here's the flaw to your analysis: WOWY stats for defensemen are highly dependent on who the other options are. The truth is that back in 2014-15, Dennis Wideman was a better possession defenseman than Kris Russell and Deryk Engelland. When Giordano wasn't playing with Brodie, he was playing with Wideman. When Brodie wasn't playing with Giordano, he was playing with Russell and Engelland.

First of all, yes Giordano is a superior shot metric player to Brodie because of his elite shot generation ability and Brodie's general refusal to shoot. However, it is debatable if Giordano is a better shot suppressor to Brodie (both are excellent however).

In reality, Brodie's elite shot suppression (which is a combination of his neutral zone gap control, defensive zone takeaway ability, and his excellent first pass) were a definite boon on Giordano's play. No player on that pair "carried" the other because both were constantly covering for each other. A basic look at CF% can't show that.

When Giordano got hurt in 2014-15, his shot suppression numbers didn't actually fall off but his %s fell off because he was playing with partners who did not drive shot attempts for. Defensively, the Brodie-Engelland pairing carried this team to the playoffs by taking on difficult matchups (and that was 70+% Brodie, as Engelland was remarkably prone to having his breakout plays picked off or turn into icings). Offensively, they naturally struggled - because they should have - Brodie was playing the left side and neither Engelland no Brodie is a volume shot generating defenseman.

The truth is this though - As a purely defensive pair, Brodie-Engelland managed to keep goal events against low enough that the more offensive pairs - Schlemko-Diaz and Russell-Wideman, were able to stay above water. This was only possible because TJ Brodie is a phenomenal defensive defenseman. Of course it would be nice if he could be gatling gun shooter from the point, but he as able to offset that offensive shortcoming with his playmaking ability - something which is not obvious in underlying metrics.

One of the most effective pairings we've had over the last four seasons is Russell-Brodie. Kris Russell sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but it's not a coincidence this pairing had chemistry - it placed Brodie on his right side where his offensive creativity could shine, and together they could skate as well as any D pairing in the NHL. But merely looking at their CF% would tell you they were a bad pairing. Which has some merit - Russell is not a top four defenseman on a good team, but Brodie was able to work with what he could do well and carry him. This pairing had strong goal differentials.

One of the least effective pairings we've had over the last ~six seasons is Giordano-Wideman. Wideman also sucks at most things we'd associate with defensive play, but he has an excellent first pass which does minimize some goal events against. Regardless, the underlying numbers of the the Giordano-Wideman pair were decent because Wideman was good at getting shots, but this was fools gold because Giordano could not carry Wideman in the defensive zone.

WOWY stats are very very useful and I encourage you to continue using them. But there are things they don't tell you and can purposefully obscure. Sometime it's better to look at the success of actual pairings when apart from each other. For instance Deryk Engelland is a player both Brodie and Gio have played significant minutes with.


Brodie - Engelland
42.99% CF
34.49 ZSR
632.84 TOI together

Gio - Engelland
42.48% CF
37.25 ZSR
303.04 TOI together

Well first of all, the big difference is Brodie spent TWICE as much time on a pairing with Engelland. His overall statistics over the same period of time are thus more skewed by that pairing.

We can look at the other pairs too:

Brodie-Wideman
48.64%
50% ZSR
728 TOI

Giordano Wideman
49.13%
46.94% ZSR
326.45 TOI

Again there isn't a huge gap. Except in the ice time, where Brodie is being skewed towards the inferior partner.

Russell-Brodie
40.87% CF
32.1% ZSR
206.65 TOI

Giordano-Russell
31.33% CF
33.33 ZSR
21.97 TOI

The major gap here is the ice time. Giordano almost never had to play with Kris Russell. For the record though, Russell-Brodie had very good goal differentials that defy their underlying statistics.

Finally, I am not saying Brodie's possession stats are or should be as good as Hamilton OR Giordano. I very easily concede those two are possession monsters. But that's because of shot generation, not because of who carried a pairing - which has a lot more to do with who is getting the puck out of the defensive zone efficiently and is something all three of Brodie, Hamilton, and Giordano do well. Of course more shots are better, but as we saw last year, volume shooting is not a holistic solution.

The truth is this - after our top three defensemen there is a steep dropoff as far as guys who can play WITH the puck in the defensive zone. A lot of emphasis is placed on playing without the puck but the truth is that in the NHL, if you don't have the puck and you're in the defensvie zone, you are at the mercy of whether your goalie can make a save through traffic and deflections. Being able to make plays with the puck is how you keep goals against down, and that's what makes Kulak a player who should get the opportunity to play with Brodie. It's a pairing I firmly believe will not only work but be successful.

You are definitely right. These WOWY states definitely are dependent on who else is available to play with.

And I am not arguing with you, but I want to use what you said to strengthen my argument that Hamilton is still just fine without Giordano. Let's dig into more stats from 2016-2017.

With Giordano, the numbers were 56.65% together, Hamilton w/o Giordano - 52.51% and Giordano w/o Hamilton 47.28%.

Most of Hamilton's time without Giordano was spent with Jyrki Jokipakka (49.49% - together, 56.36% - Hamilton w/o Jokipakka, 43.88% Jokipakka w/o Hamilton) and Brodie (56.29% - together, 55.48% - Hamilton w/o Brodie, 49.28% - Brodie w/o Hamilton).

With the Giordano - Hamilton pairing, Giordano and Hamilton were better together than apart and Hamilton apart from Giordano produced more control of shot attempts than Giordano apart from Hamilton (I recognize this ignores who Giordano had to play with: Wideman, etc.). But still it shows that Giordano does not have to carry Hamilton.

With the Jokipakka - Hamilton pairing, Hamilton was better apart from Jokipakka than they were together because Jokipakka is replacement level. Hamilton was clearly dragging Jokipakka out of the mud to create a decent pairing. This is what it looks like when one defencemen carries another. For comparison's sake, Again, Hamilton does not need Giordano to carry him.

With the Brodie - Hamilton pairing, they were better together than apart and Hamilton apart from Brodie produced more control of shot attempts than Brodie apart from Hamilton. This pair played together very little (sample size alert), but it was almost as good (in very limited minutes) as Giordano-Hamilton, 2016-2017 version). Again, Hamilton does not need Giordano to carry him.

Just please do not trade Hamilton. The guy is a monster and fans do not appreciate him like they should.

[SeanCharles]

Why is there still so much talk about Hamilton in this trade thread?

At the STH event Treliving said he thought Gio-Hamilton was the best pairing in the league. Why would he want to break that up?

He also said the primary young core players were Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Hamilton...

We aren't trading Hamilton. Can we please move on from the idea of it?

I for one am glad those 4 are considered untouchable as I also deem them as such.

[neo45]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Why is there still so much talk about Hamilton in this trade thread?

At the STH event Treliving said he thought Gio-Hamilton was the best pairing in the league. Why would he want to break that up?

He also said the primary young core players were Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Hamilton...

We aren't trading Hamilton. Can we please move on from the idea of it?

I for one am glad those 4 are considered untouchable as I also deem them as such.

Gio/Brodie was the best pairing in the league too in some people’s eyes. That got broken up for the good of the team.

I don’t think trading Dougie is a good idea unless holy overpay, but it’s an interesting discussion whether or not he can carry his own pairing away from Giordano. The results have seemed to indicate no, buts it has been awhile since it was tried. So I find that discussion more interesting than most of this thread to be honest.

[Nelson]

Originally Posted by neo45

Gio/Brodie was the best pairing in the league too in some people’s eyes. That got broken up for the good of the team.

I don’t think trading Dougie is a good idea unless holy overpay, but it’s an interesting discussion whether or not he can carry his own pairing away from Giordano. The results have seemed to indicate no, buts it has been awhile since it was tried. So I find that discussion more interesting than most of this thread to be honest.

What do you mean the results indicate Dougie cannot carry his own pairing? Which results?

[Monahammer]

Hamilton's poor defensive ability is a myth that needs to be destroyed immediately. It's just false.

[Kipper_3434]

Guys. Stop. There isn't even a discussion happening here.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Hamilton's poor defensive ability is a myth that needs to be destroyed immediately. It's just false.

I know being 6'5 and not a thug is reason enough for some people to reach this conclusion. It's definitely gotten way out of hand.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Nelson

I'm sorry. You're right. Giordano and Brodie were better together than apart and Giordano and Hamilton are better together than apart. However, I am trying to show that Hamilton is not carried by Giordano. The point is that unlike Brodie without Giordano, Hamilton is better or as good as Giordano without Giordano and Giordano is as good or worse than Hamilton without Hamilton. This is different than with Brodie. Therefore, while Giordano and Hamilton are better together than apart, LHD - Hamilton would still be a great pair. Hamilton is great without Giordano. Brodie sucks without Giordano.

Hamilton when not with Gio has been a third pairing Dman as in Hartley/Gulutzan played him on the third pair. Do your stats take into effect competition?

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Hamilton when not with Gio has been a third pairing Dman as in Hartley/Gulutzan played him on the third pair. Do your stats take into effect competition?

Dougie Hamilton is not a 3rd pairing defenceman...

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Why is there still so much talk about Hamilton in this trade thread?

At the STH event Treliving said he thought Gio-Hamilton was the best pairing in the league. Why would he want to break that up?

He also said the primary young core players were Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk and Hamilton...

We aren't trading Hamilton. Can we please move on from the idea of it?

I for one am glad those 4 are considered untouchable as I also deem them as such.

He called Brodie part of the core as well.

He made comments about Gio being the constant. Hamilton was listed as trade bait on TSN. Sorry unless Treliving says he is not trading Hamilton we can talk about it.

No way did he imply at least in the Monday evening session that anyone was untouchable.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

Dougie Hamilton is not a 3rd pairing defenceman...

No kidding. I am saying that Hartley played him in that role a lot and before Gulutzan moved him with Gio he played on the third pair as well averaging 18 min a game. So the advanced stats that show Dougie being great without Gio was when the coach of the Flames was playing him on the third pair.

He is in no way an actual third pairing Dman

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

He called Brodie part of the core as well.

He made comments about Gio being the constant. Hamilton was listed as trade bait on TSN. Sorry unless Treliving says he is not trading Hamilton we can talk about it.

No way did he imply at least in the Monday evening session that anyone was untouchable.

I'm not here to tell anybody what to talk about, so long as it isn't offensive..

I'm just saying how are we still talking about this? Have we not covered every inch of the topic essentially ever since we aquired him? We've been talking about trading the guy for years.

How much more can we say on the topic that hasn't already been discussed ad nauseam?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

I'm not here to tell anybody what to talk about, so long as it isn't offensive..

I'm just saying how are we still talking about this? Have we not covered every inch of the topic essentially ever since we aquired him? We've been talking about trading the guy for years.

How much more can we say on the topic that hasn't already been discussed ad nauseam?

If anything if something is going to happen with Dougie in regards to being traded it will be in the next 3-4 weeks. Speculation will ramp up with several names being tossed in the rumor mill. Dougie was listed as someone on TSN’s trade watch.

Personally I think the Flames would much rather trade Brodie but if the offers are not to their liking I believe they are going to look at the market for Hamilton. I only see them moving Dougie if the offer is huge which it very well could be.

To me this team only has 4 true top 6 forwards and even then I think Backlund should be our third line centre. Jankowski and maybe Bennett have top 6 upside and Ferland looks like he belongs for stretches. I think this team ideally would add a forward that they can play with Tkachuk to build another legit scoring line. Be that a centre or winger. If the team is pushing Backlund and Frolik down the depth chart then the bottom 6 is vastly improved.

[GranteedEV]

If the Flames were to trade Hamilton I think they would want Fox under contract first. RHS offensive defensemen don't grow on trees.

[dammage79]

I think Dougie gets traded. I believe to get what Brad wants he's going to have to offer up that trade chip. I do not believe Treliving is going for a middle of the road trade like Brodie is right now. All Treliving does is swing hard. I suspect this years roster shake up is going to be the same.

[Nelson]

The discussion is about what Dougie Hamilton is apart from Mark Giordano and whether Dougie Hamilton needs to be carried by Mark Giordano to be good.

It’s true that, in 16-17, Hamilton would’ve played on the 3rd pairing for aabout 10 games when he was with Jokipakka (about 180 minutes), but he wouldn’t have been on the 3rd pairing with TJ Brodie (about 80 minutes). With Jokipakka, Hamilton also had his worst results I’ve found so the argument that his numbers were being raised by playing on the 3rd pair is false.

If you still don’t believe Hamilton would be fine on his own, there’s more minutes in Boston where he played separately from Chara for over 500 minutes and had a 52.05% CF%. When Chara and Giordano we’re together, they rocketed up to 57.02% CF%. Sound familiar? Without Hamilton, Chara sunk to below 50% CF%.

If you want more depth with respect to the situations Hamilton has played in and (always) succeeded, look at Rob Vollman’s player usage charts on hockeyabstract.com.

Bottom line: Hamilton performs as a top pairing defencenen with or without Giordano and might very well be the Flames best defencemen (I know, sorry about the blasphemy). I know he doesn’t hit and is not mean like Stevens or Pronger and that makes people frustrated because of his 6’5” frame. I also know he sometimes makes glaring errors unlike Lidstrom. But he is elite.

And he should only be traded for a king’s ransom. The problem is it likely won’t be enough. Generally, when teams trade young, elite players they don’t win those trades.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I think Dougie gets traded. I believe to get what Brad wants he's going to have to offer up that trade chip. I do not believe Treliving is going for a middle of the road trade like Brodie is right now. All Treliving does is swing hard. I suspect this years roster shake up is going to be the same.

I've said this a few times, but I truly believe the smartest thing Treliving can do in the next few weeks is let be known that he's possibly looking to move a defenseman for help up front.

Let teams come to him with their wants and wishes and zero in on what he wants to do.

If a team wants to massively overpay for one of the top three look at it.

There is no point in;

a) going on a "I'm shopping Brodie" escapade or a
b) "I have to trade one of them today" excursion

If the Leafs get silly and give you Marner, Kapenen, their 1st and 2nd for Giordano look at it.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I've said this a few times, but I truly believe the smartest thing Treliving can do in the next few weeks is let be known that he's possibly looking to move a defenseman for help up front.

Let teams come to him with their wants and wishes and zero in on what he wants to do.

If a team wants to massively overpay for one of the top three look at it.

There is no point in;

a) going on a "I'm shopping Brodie" escapade or a
b) "I have to trade one of them today" excursion

If the Leafs get silly and give you Marner, Kapenen, their 1st and 2nd for Giordano look at it.

Man, that'd be a heck of a trade..

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If the Leafs get silly and give you Marner, Kapenen, their 1st and 2nd for Giordano look at it.

If the Leafs offer that for Gio you probably trip running so fast to the fax machine.

[Heavy Jack]

Realistically you could get Nylander, Kapenen and a 2nd maybe a 1st for Gio which I’d heavily consider with the young depth we have on D.