2018 Blue Jays Season Thread

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Machiavelli

Sanchez's fall from grace is the one I really don't get. His stuff was awesome, maybe he had to change his mechanics because of that blister?

That’s what I would think, or that he’s been in the league for a bit now and there’s more scouting on him. I think the same may be with Stroman and both guys need to adjust and add more to their arsenal. Sanchez has very good stuff but I don’t think he knows how to “pitch” like a starter yet. He needs to study how Happ pitches. He tries to overpower guys with high movement and velocity but seems to struggle when guys start to figure out his timing. He’s very young so I’m guessing he will learn this with experience.

[Jason14h]

Somehow in a league where strikeouts are through the roof, our starts outside of Happ don’t strike anyone out

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Promote Bichette and Guerrero to start next season to replace Tulo and Donaldson and rebuild around those guys.

Tulo isn't going anywhere he makes way to much money.

Upcoming FA:

Clippard, Tyler
Axford, John
Loup, Aaron
Donaldson, Josh
Pearce, Steve
Granderson, Curtis
Happ, J.A.

No one is going to want Estrada, Loup, or Pearce and we should be extending Happ not trading him. So assuming they don't fall apart the Jays basically have their found money relievers (Clippard and Axford) and Josh Donaldson (you might get a bite on Granderson if someone wants the "veteran presence") as trade chips. I think you might be able to get a nice young starter out of Atlanta (they're loaded with them... Anthopoulous sure landed in a nice spot) for Donaldson+ the others will likely get you B/C+ prospects.

OF: Alford/Grichuk - Pillar - Hernandez
INF: Bichette - Tulo - Solarte/Diaz/Travis - Guerrero
C: Martin - Jansen

That's potentially a really good line-up.

Rotation: Happ - Stroman - Sanchez - Mid-Range UFA - Young Starter

Lot of uncertainty but some good upside in that rotation.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Tulo isn't going anywhere he makes way to much money.

Upcoming FA:

Clippard, Tyler
Axford, John
Loup, Aaron
Donaldson, Josh
Pearce, Steve
Granderson, Curtis
Happ, J.A.

No one is going to want Estrada, Loup, or Pearce and we should be extending Happ not trading him. So assuming they don't fall apart the Jays basically have their found money relievers (Clippard and Axford) and Josh Donaldson (you might get a bite on Granderson if someone wants the "veteran presence") as trade chips. I think you might be able to get a nice young starter out of Atlanta (they're loaded with them... Anthopoulous sure landed in a nice spot) for Donaldson+ the others will likely get you B/C+ prospects.

OF: Alford/Grichuk - Pillar - Hernandez
INF: Bichette - Tulo - Solarte/Diaz/Travis - Guerrero
C: Martin - Jansen

That's potentially a really good line-up.

Rotation: Happ - Stroman - Sanchez - Mid-Range UFA - Young Starter

Lot of uncertainty but some good upside in that rotation.

Still lots of season left, but I don't see Bichette arriving as quickly as Vlad. He's still a very good prospect, and apparently the defense has improved, but he's struggling a little bit with the adjustment to AA.

Also, Gurriel will likely be more of a fixture throughout the rest of this season and especially next. He still needs to improve but I thought overall he looked pretty good, and didn't get a ton of luck on some hard hit balls.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Still lots of season left, but I don't see Bichette arriving as quickly as Vlad.

Yeah but Vlad could be in MLB today (as a hitter) so I don't think it's to much of a stretch to think Bichette will be ready in a year. Heck I wonder if Cavan Biggio has a shot, I mean... technically he's hitting better then Vlad with a 1.148OPS to Vlad's 1.137 (not a situation I expect to continue but still).

[Hockey Fan #751]

One thing I don't understand is, why not bring Vlad to AAA? Seems odd at this point not to.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yeah but Vlad could be in MLB today (as a hitter) so I don't think it's to much of a stretch to think Bichette will be ready in a year. Heck I wonder if Cavan Biggio has a shot, I mean... technically he's hitting better then Vlad with a 1.148OPS to Vlad's 1.137 (not a situation I expect to continue but still).

Yeah Biggio apparently made some swing changes and it's paid off big time. Hopefully he can keep it up because he is having a tremendous year. His OPS and wRC+ are neck and neck with Vlad's so far, but with him being 3 years older people are understandably hesitant to take him seriously.

OF - Pillar, Grichuk, Hernandez, Alford, Pompey, Smith Jr
IF - Tulo, Solarte, Diaz, Guerrero, Travis, Bichette, Gurriel
1B - Smoak
C - Martin, Jansen, Maile
DH - Morales (Yikes I hope they get rid of him soon)

If Biggio keeps it up I could see them shuffling him over to 1B and giving him a shot as well. There are also many who don't think Vlad's glove will play at 3B in the majors, and if not he will likely end up as a 1B long term. Time will tell.

I don't even want to make a list of pieces to build the rotation from haha. Talk about depressing. Pearson getting hurt really blows, but Borucki has come on in his last few starts and SRF is having a good year so hopefully there is something there to build with.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

One thing I don't understand is, why not bring Vlad to AAA? Seems odd at this point not to.

If they don't bring him straight up to MLB they will promote him to Buffalo eventually. I think the weather plays a big part in it. They want him getting as many AB's and reps at 3B as possible, and the weather has wreaked havoc on the Bisons schedule so far this season.

[Roof-Daddy]

Here's why Teoscar is becoming a slugging star

Highest average exit velocity on fly balls and line drives, 2018 (min. 50 AB)

102.8 MPH -- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
101.1 MPH -- Joey Gallo, Rangers
99.9 MPH -- J.D. Martinez, Red Sox
99.9 MPH -- Gary Sanchez, Yankees
99.7 MPH -- Mike Zunino, Mariners
99.6 MPH -- Teoscar Hernandez, Blue Jays
99.4 MPH -- Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
99.1 MPH -- Pedro Alvarez, Orioles
98.6 MPH -- Bryce Harper, Nationals
98.5 MPH -- Shohei Ohtani, Angels
MLB average -- 93 MPH

That … is an unbelievable list. That's not "Hernandez and nine other guys," that's "10 guys who have proven that they can crush the ball in the air," which is about the most valuable thing you can do.

However, you'll note that Alvarez, for example, is not on the star level. That's partially because his lack of defensive value or foot speed limit him, but it's also because he's long been a high strikeout player. You can't get to elite exit velocity without making contact. Hernandez had that issue in the past, too, but he has brought his strikeout rate down to a league-average 23.6 percent this year.

The way we account for that is with a metric called Expected wOBA, which accounts for both quality of contact and amount of contact (and walks). It gives credit for the skill shown in terms of exit velocity and launch angle, so that even if a batter is robbed of a homer by a great defensive play, he gets a little more than an oh-fer for it. (wOBA is just like OBP, except you get more credit for extra-base hits.)

Hopefully the Jays FO unearthed something here. Time will tell but he's been great so far.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah Biggio apparently made some swing changes and it's paid off big time. Hopefully he can keep it up because he is having a tremendous year. His OPS and wRC+ are neck and neck with Vlad's so far, but with him being 3 years older people are understandably hesitant to take him seriously.

If Biggio keeps it up I could see them shuffling him over to 1B and giving him a shot as well. There are also many who don't think Vlad's glove will play at 3B in the majors, and if not he will likely end up as a 1B long term. Time will tell.

Yeah, apparently he's loading his hands lower and that's getting him some more bat speed (and he's kept his patience so pitchers can't throw him junk and expect he'll swing through it). He plays a good 2nd base from what I've heard so it'd be a waste to put him at 1B. I figure Bichette ends up at 3rd base as well. If they're here next year then they can cut Morales move Smoak to DH and fit everyone in.

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Pearson getting hurt really blows, but Borucki has come on in his last few starts and SRF is having a good year so hopefully there is something there to build with.

SRF is having a great year, Plus they've got Romero and Zuech (who I figure is more likely a #4/#5 guy) up at AA . The Jays have arms in the system... It's just that you can't really bank on any of them being #1 or #2 guys.

[BOSSY]

Originally Posted by Hockey Fan #751

One thing I don't understand is, why not bring Vlad to AAA? Seems odd at this point not to.

Prospects stayin AA and established fill in players, usually with SOME, big league time are in AAA... rarely do you see young prospects in AAA.

[BOSSY]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Here's why Teoscar is becoming a slugging star



Hopefully the Jays FO unearthed something here. Time will tell but he's been great so far.

Agreed - from all indications he is a really solid dude too...

[nixon45]

Jaime Garcia to the DL...

The Toronto Blue Jays have placed left-hander Jaime Garcia on the 10-day disabled list with left shoulder inflammation and recalled reliever Deck McGuire from Triple-A Buffalo. Garcia’s DL stint is retroactive to May 16.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by nixon45

Jaime Garcia to the DL...

Do the Jays have anyone they possibly can bring up from the minors that can try and start? I cannot stomach anymore Biagini starts

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Do the Jays have anyone they possibly can bring up from the minors that can try and start? I cannot stomach anymore Biagini starts

Happ
Sanchez
Estrada
Biagini / Gaviglio (Stroman fill in)
McGuire / Biagini (Garcia fill in)

That's our rotation right now, they haven't decided whether or not Biagini or Gaviglio gets the next Stroman start last I heard.

The only other starter in AAA that's on the 40 man is Borucki. The 5th starter in AAA is Rowley, but he's not on the 40 man so someone would have to be bumped to get him on there.

In AA there is Romano and Reid-Foley, but neither are on the 40 man and you don't usually see prospect pitchers go straight from AA to the majors. Those two are having really good years so far though with a combined 12-0 record in 15 starts and 1.94/1.88 ERA's respectively. Another starter there is Tepesch who is 29, but he also isn't on the 40 man, plus he sucks lol.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Happ
Sanchez
Estrada
Biagini / Gaviglio (Stroman fill in)
McGuire / Biagini (Garcia fill in)

That's our rotation right now, they haven't decided whether or not Biagini or Gaviglio gets the next Stroman start last I heard.

The only other starter in AAA that's on the 40 man is Borucki. The 5th starter in AAA is Rowley, but he's not on the 40 man so someone would have to be bumped to get him on there.

In AA there is Romano and Reid-Foley, but neither are on the 40 man and you don't usually see prospect pitchers go straight from AA to the majors. Those two are having really good years so far though with a combined 12-0 record in 15 starts and 1.94/1.88 ERA's respectively. Another starter there is Tepesch who is 29, but he also isn't on the 40 man, plus he sucks lol.

Damn it would be really nice to have a couple of prospects that were close to ready. I know the Jays have begun to try and address this by taking a Pearson last year in the first round but I hope they move JD for a couple very good pitching prospects. It’s nice to think that the Jays could make the playoffs if they go on a run but other teams are just several levels above the Jays in every department. They cannot let JD go for nothing.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, we need JD to heat up like he can and hope somebody is willing to pay for only a few months of him guaranteed. Problem is, if he does heat up like he can, it could be enough to keep this team in wild card contention which might keep the FO from trading him at all. Another problem is Machado who is having one hell of a season. I doubt anything happens with JD until Machado gets dealt.

Almost to the point where you wonder if maybe the Jays can get JD on more palatable extension now, if that might be worth more to the Jays long term than anything they might get in a trade for him.

The Jays have the luxury of no big money contracts on the books after 2019. Martin expires, Morales expires and Tulo drops from $20 million to just $14 million in 2020 then he's gone if his 2021 club option isn't picked up (which it won't be lol).

They could afford having JD on the books for $20-25 million until 2022 or 2023 and I don't think it would hurt them. So something like 4 year $100 million maybe?

We'll see I guess.

[nixon45]

Can we have their starter back in the game please?

[Karl]

Man, it's looking like another dire result upcoming.

We can't even hit Josh freaking Lucas.

[Karl]

Can no one on this team hit breaking balls tonight FFS??