[GDT] NHL Draft Lottery

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Every draft is about adding assets. Period.

Teams that find three players; one that has an impact, one that plays a depth role, and one that is a tweener ... do quite well.

The Flames have done a much better job of that in the last three drafts, and that's the section run by the current GM in the current set up.

If you want to analyze draft picks in the 80s fill your boots, but it's not all that pertinent to this discussion, at least in my focus.

I want the machine in place to build success. The current machine can't do a damn thing about faulty machines in the past. To harbour that world honestly must mean you like failure and bitching more than logic.

He has done that by stealing from future drafts, which is quite a problem IMO.

We’ll see what he does this summer but he is not going to add three such players without subtracting a lot somewhere.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

What is your evidence that the last 3 drafts have been better than the 3 previous to those ones?

How many teams have drafted less frequently than Calgary in just the last 4 years?

My whole argument, for years at this point, is that the organization is too asset poor to be trading draft picks away for players, and given their dismal record finding players deep in the draft, they need to prioritize moving assets that have value now for futures that may not have as much value now.

When Tre was moving out guys like Hudler and Russell for picks and the team still made noise anyway, I thought that was great.

When the team moved a bunch of picks and were awful, I thought that was not so great.

Why are you trying so hard to dismiss my arguments like referring to ancient history when I'm talking about drafting as recently as 5 years ago?

What evidence have you provided?

I get it, there's a big group of people that want to believe the sky is falling, but I'm just not one of those people. I know I annoy you, you have a view and you don't want anyone getting in the way of a good pity party but it's getting really old and really weak.

Recent re-drafts have had the Flames with 3 first rounders in the 2016 draft ... that seems like a good sign.

Last year's first round pick has moved up 5-7 places in redrafts less than a year old.

They've found Fox, Phillips, Mangiapane and to a less "cooked" degree Joly and Rucizka that are at least intriguing.

They certainly have changed the organization's old safe view into a swing for the fence in late rounds angle that has paid off.

So go ahead and feel bad about stuff, I won't get in the way, I'm certainly not as pissy about people not agreeing with me as the like of you are about not finding lemmings to follow them off a cliff.

Just move on ... you'll find others to wallow with.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

He has done that by stealing from future drafts, which is quite a problem IMO.

We’ll see what he does this summer but he is not going to add three such players without subtracting a lot somewhere.

That's not quite right.

He has Hamonic ... so that's the good pick. He needs to find a depth player and a cup of coffee and breaks even the average team's draft year.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

The Flames have rebuilt through the draft. At some point you have to pivot and start supplementing a young core by acquiring the types of key players that the core lacks. Treliving did this and acquired a good defensive dman of which we were lacking and had none coming up. He will likely continue to do this by signing or acquiring a top 6 forward this summer. At that point IMO we won’t have any major holes.

The Flames rebuilt through the draft. They have traded some picks to supplement the core. They will draft again in the future to keep the pipeline strong (which it is at the moment even though some picks were traded). I don’t see any issue. Unless one mistenly assumes we’re still rebuilding. Or mistakenly thinks we’re nowhere near contending. At least IMO of course.

The thing is, to this point anyway, Tre hasn't shown the ability to make an effective player for player 'hockey trade' to improve the team and IMO this is what is really required of him in order to be a top GM. Maybe i'm forgetting a move but I don't think so. This is a huge reason Calgary is not a Nashville or Winnipeg and hasn't been for decades. This franchise loves to dabble but never dive in and I believe this is why many are questioning the current GM. Is he making moves to win or making moves not to lose.....hard to say. I do agree the team has rebuilt through the draft and done a decent job considering where things were at, however, the team is never going to get over the hump unless Tre takes a bit of a risk and signs an impact forward, makes a trade to improve scoring depth.

The last 5/6 forwards on this team are simply not good enough and will again be the cause of a lackluster season unless addressed. You can't keep playing the game of decimating the draft in the hopes of plugging holes either. Step up and make a deal and try to give this group more weapons. Play it safe and it will be just more of the same: finish 7th one year, out of the playoffs for two seasons, finish 6th again, out of the playoffs for a year......on and on and on into oblivion.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Probably, but what point would that prove? We already know Darryl Sutter was not a great GM in this regard. But he left over half a decade ago, and before our rebuild, so there's nothing of value to be had. You would be far better off looking up how many games, goals, wins, etc. players you drafted have given you from this year's roster.

Because it sets up the context. You can't evaluate a draft until 4-5 years later, right? So how can we know what assets the Flames are dealing with unless we look back in time roughly to roughly the same period. It's a generational thing with the flames of constantly being asset poor, and until a GM actually addresses that it will keep happening. Look where the team is at now.

Again, all of our favourite prospects came from drafting multiple times; from assets that were not original property of the Flames.

Parsons selected with a pick originally belonging to Florida. Dube a pick originally belonging to Dallas. Phillips with a pick originally belonging to Minnesota. Rasmus a pick originally belonging to Vancouver. Kylington a pick originally belonging to...

And to that end, I'll segway into something I noticed for the Bruins when I was looking up the previous chart: Between 2007-2013, they sucked at building through the draft.
2007: Nada (2 picks in the first 3 rounds, 6 picks total)
2008: Joe Colborne (never played for them), Michael Hutchinson (never played for them) (3 picks in the first 3 rounds)
2009: Nada (2 picks in the first 3 rounds, 5 picks total)
2010: Tyler Seguin (traded early), Ryan Spooner (3 picks in the first 3 rounds, 8 picks total)
2011: Dougie Hamilton (traded early), (3 picks in the first 3 rounds, 6 total)
2012: Matt Benning (never played for them) (2 picks in the first 3 rounds, 6 picks total)
2013: Nada (2 picks in the first 3 rounds, 6 total, no 1st rounder)

Seven years, and they pulled only three players of any note that even suited up for them. The two major names were dealt after only three seasons. The Bruins are bloody lucky that they hit a home run in 2014 with Pastranak, or else they'd be staring at the abyss right now. And they did that with only five picks for the entire draft.

Every team that picks a player that does anything is lucky; there's no accounting for that. If the Flames were so smart they would've picked Gaudreau with their first pick.

But often what separates good teams from bad is knowing when and how to sell assets for picks and making the concerted effort to get picks back. Not warm bodies like hanowski and agastino The Flames haven't ever really prioritized this, and aside from his first year or so, neither has Tre.

When you look at the bruins draft history, some things pop out. DeBrusk and Carlo, two players out of 6 picks. The year they win the cup they draft Hamilton, not with their own pick, but with someone elses. The year before when they draft Seguin, again, not their pick, someone elses. The year they draft Lucic, they use Edmonton's 3rd rounder they got for Samsonov.

There's a trend here, and that trend is cutting bait when you're not quite good enough and someone offers you significant value of future assets for your now asset. But that's just part of the equation, the other part is also keeping your own picks as best you can to accumulate chances.

Glencross for a 2nd and a third. How freakin' good does that trade look right now? Why can't the Flames ever seem to make more of those trades?

[SuperMatt18]

Looked at the picks that Treliving has brought in vs traded in the first 4 rounds.

Picks In
2015 2nd, & 2015 3rd (Glencross - rental)
2015 2nd (Baertschi - trade ask)
2016 2nd, 2016 4th (Hudler - rental)
2016 2nd (Russell - rental)

Picks Out
2014 3rd Round Pick (Bollig - 3 seasons remaining)
2015 1st, 2nd, 2nd (Hamilton - RFA - signed 6 seasons)
2016 2nd (Elliot - 1 season remaining)
2017 3rd (Stone - UFA - signed 3 seasons)
2017 2nd (Lazar - RFA - signed 2 seasons)
2017 3rd (Smith - 2 seasons remaining)
2018 1st , 2018 2nd, 2019 2nd (Hamonic - 3 seasons remaining)

So:

1st Round: -2
2nd round: -2
3rd Round: -1
4th Round: +1

So really it's just the Hamilton and Hamonic trades that caused those deficits but both those players were signed to long term deals, and weren't rentals so we have something to show for it still.

The trades I will say were bad were Bollig, Lazar (don't trade early round picks for 4th liners), and then the fact that we needed to move assets for Elliot and Smith back to back seasons. The Hamonic trade is just "meh" since he was a declining asset and FWD was a bigger area of need.

Treliving does deserve a bit of credit for getting picks for rentals /upcoming UFAs and then trying to turn those into long term assets (Have a gut feeling he tries to turn Ferland into a 1st at the draft).

He can still recoup some 2018/2019 picks in advance of those drafts so that's not really 100% closed off yet either.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's not quite right.

He has Hamonic ... so that's the good pick. He needs to find a depth player and a cup of coffee and breaks even the average team's draft year.

You're counting Hamonic as this year's pick? OK fair enough I see how that makes sense.

But I think it's simplifying too much to say the draft is about acquiring assets, period. It's about acquiring young inexpensive assets. And every once in a while it's about acquiring elite talent, not just solid players.

So here I go again debating Hamonic trade, but that's my problem with it. You gave up too much value to acquire a solid player. If Travis Hamonic is the best player you acquire every year through the draft, you will be the worst team in the league. It can make sense if it's the one piece you're missing from an already contending or near contending team.

If you believe Flames have the elite talent to contend, the trade makes sense. Personally I wish the team had committed to more drafting for a couple of more years before trades like this and a few others.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

You're counting Hamonic as this year's pick? OK fair enough I see how that makes sense.

But I think it's simplifying too much to say the draft is about acquiring assets, period. It's about acquiring young inexpensive assets. And every once in a while it's about acquiring elite talent, not just solid players.

So here I go again debating Hamonic trade, but that's my problem with it. You gave up too much value to acquire a solid player. If Travis Hamonic is the best player you acquire every year through the draft, you will be the worst team in the league. It can make sense if it's the one piece you're missing from an already contending or near contending team.

If you believe Flames have the elite talent to contend, the trade makes sense. Personally I wish the team had committed to more drafting for a couple of more years before trades like this and a few others.

But it is disingenuous to suggest they won't get anything better every year.

Some years (most) you don't hit home runs. Sometimes you do. Yes, you need to have picks in order to hit those home runs.

But my problem with your argument is that you are extrapolating Hamonic into every year. That makes no sense.

making a trade like that every year would be disastrous, yes. But they aren't. Doing it once, when you are pretty sure of what you need, is perfectly reasonable.

Surety is better than chance, once in a while (as long as you take advantage of chance most years).

[ForeverFlameFan]

I wasn't really paying attention to the draft last year, but why didn't Treliving just use the 2017 1st rounder to grab Hamonic? Wouldn't it have been easier to trade a pick that you already knew had its position? Did he just simply forecast that we'd have a 20's pick in 2018? I feel like he should have just traded the 2017 pick just in case we didn't have the best season (which we did).

This trade still doesn't bother me regardless. Hamonic is still a solid player and is still on a solid contract. It's a good trade whether people like it or not. Treliving was just rather careless when it came to trading a future draft pick that can very well change if you do not make the playoffs. He should have made it conditional if anything.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

I wasn't really paying attention to the draft last year, but why didn't Treliving just use the 2017 1st rounder to grab Hamonic? Wouldn't it have been easier to trade a pick that you already knew had its position? Did he just simply forecast that we'd have a 20's pick in 2018? I feel like he should have just traded the 2017 pick just in case we didn't have the best season (which we did).

Treliving said at the time that the Flames liked Valimaki much more than any players they would be slated to select in the 2018 draft, and I suspect they still stand quite firmly by that claim even @ #12.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But it is disingenuous to suggest they won't get anything better every year.

Some years (most) you don't hit home runs. Sometimes you do. Yes, you need to have picks in order to hit those home runs.

But my problem with your argument is that you are extrapolating Hamonic into every year. That makes no sense.

making a trade like that every year would be disastrous, yes. But they aren't. Doing it once, when you are pretty sure of what you need, is perfectly reasonable.

Surety is better than chance, once in a while (as long as you take advantage of chance most years).

Understood which is why I said that was the wrong time for that trade. Flames weren't asset rich enough to make the Harmonic trade at that time. And it's not just the Harmonic trade that saw picks go out the door.

All that said, I still believe Harmonic should not have cost what he did. So even if you believe he was the missing piece to a contending team, he should have cost less IMO or you look at a different option.

Hopefully the anti-Gulutzan posters are right and we see that this team is a good coach away from contending.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Treliving said at the time that the Flames liked Valimaki much more than any players they would be slated to select in the 2018 draft, and I suspect they still stand quite firmly by that claim even @ #12.

Come on now TC.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Come on now TC.

I am serious. Valimaki is a tremendous prospect.

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Treliving said at the time that the Flames liked Valimaki much more than any players they would be slated to select in the 2018 draft, and I suspect they still stand quite firmly by that claim even @ #12.

That and I'm sure he was banking finishing higher after improving the defence and gambling on better goaltending.

Didn't work out that way, but I'm sure that went into his decision to keep the 2017 pick and give up the 2018 one instead.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am serious. Valimaki is a tremendous prospect.

He's going to be our Provorov IMO.

Identical 61 pts in 60 games draft year seasons in the WHL.

Provorov then put up 73 in 62 games, and 13 in 21 playoff games his draft+1 season (1.04 PPG over the whole season).

Valimaki's draft+1 season consisted of 45 pts in 43 games after coming back from injury, and 17 pts in 12 playoff games (1.13 PPG over the whole season).

Valimaki at #16 is going to be a steal I think. Provorov was #7 overall in 2015 for reference.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah Valimaki is probably better than anybody in this draft outside the top 10.

Plus he likely gets into your lineup 1 year faster - so as a team ready to contend sooner rather than later that helps.

The only mistake was not having top 5 protection on that pick - because that would have been a disaster. (Also think those picks should have been moved for a forward but that's separate).

[TheIronMaiden]

The last few pages have been an interesting contextualization of the Flames drafting. Thanks to all who contributed.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am serious. Valimaki is a tremendous prospect.

Ok sorry I didn't read the post you were responding to. He may well be better than whoever is available at 12.

Not that I would base it on the GM's word a full year before the draft and after he traded away the pick.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Ok sorry I didn't read the post you were responding to. He may well be better than whoever is available at 12.

Not that I would base it on the GM's word a full year before the draft and after he traded away the pick.

Who is doing that?

I am an enthusiast who has followed Valimaki's development this year and remain very impressed. Of course, I don't expect you to concede any ground in this matter—you have made it abundantly clear that you hated the Hamonic trade, and remain steadfastly dubious of any silver linings.

[TheIronMaiden]

Subjectively, the Flames going into next season have 2 roster holes on forward, 1 for the top six and another for the bottom 6. In addition, they have one hole on the bottom six spot on defence. I would like to examine prospects according to those needs.

For forwards there are arguably 5 players who are realistically pushing for a spot in camp:

Foo 62GP 20G 19A 39PTS
Dube 53GP 38G 46A 84Pts in the WHL
Mangiapane 39GP 21G 25A 46Pts in the AHL
Klimchuk 62GP 19G 21A 40Pts in the AHL
Gawdin 67GP 56G 69A 125Pts in the WHL

I think that one of these player would plug nicely into the bottom six. That being said, the Flames void in the top six wing is likely not to be solved by this group. This is what is frustrating about the lack of picks in the top rounds this draft. Each of these players look like an outside shot at helping with secondary scoring, let alone primary scoring. It would be nice to pick a player who could contribute over the next few years this draft.

That said, when this is examined in contrast to the positional needs on defence the situation looks less extreme. The Flames need a bottom pairing D man for next season, and they will have three players who are capable of competing for this spot right away.

Andersson
Valimaki
Kylington

In conclusion it is clear that the Flames will need to look for more scoring through alternative methods, UFAs or trading. This is not ideal. Still, The Flames are not completely lost as they do have a position of strength their defence. So, while it is frustrating that this draft will not be a source of development for the roster as is stands, it does appear that the Flames will have some options for trades. We can all agree that the best teams develop through the draft. Still, prudent free agency moves, and trades might be just what this team needs to overcome last seasons troubles. In other words, having no draft picks sucks, but all hope for roster improvement is not lost.