[GDT] NHL Draft Lottery

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't see anyone taking a contrary position here, and pretty much all of us would agree that successful teams are built through the draft. The Flames ARE BUILDING THROUGH THE DRAFT. Six or seven of their top-nine forwards this year were drafted by the Flames. They can likely afford to move a defenseman this summer precisely because they have drafted players that look ready to add to the blue line.

Tampa roster 12 drafted players
Nashville 16
Boston 11
Winnipeg 14

Calgary 9

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

My god. Seriously?

Nashville has drafted some great defensemen, but take a look at their forward group: Johanson? Acquired in a trade. Turris? Acquired in a trade. Bonino? Signed as a UFA. They hit a home run with Arvidsson—who is NOT better than every Flames forward—but even their leading scorer and only truly elite sniper, Filip Forsberg, was acquired in a trade.

Johansen traded for a Top Prospect.

Turris traded for a Top Prospect.

Flames hit a home run with Gaudreau in the same round Nashville grabbed Arvidsson. Does Gaudreau not count?

The point, of course, is that all of those teams save the Jets have managed to draft better than the Flames have in the last 4 season when they saw significant post season success. The Flames over that same time frame weren't making it to the conference final or the cup final, they won what, 6 playoff games?

If anything, the standard for the Flames should be even HIGHER than it is for teams that also happened to be going for it in preceding years, as there is no real excuse to be trading those picks away to be a non-playoff team when you can use them to draft players like the Jets have.

Of course, it's not just the now that matters, but the preceding history. The Iginla Flames flamed out in large part because Dustin Boyd and Mikael Backlund were the team's best prospects during those years. I have to laugh at fans on this board more eager to challenge me than their preconceptions about drafting when given the overwhelming negative history of being a Flames Fan.

As fans, we should have all the evidence we need at this point. The team was at it's best when it was drafting frequently in the 80s and at it's worst when it was draft infrequently through the last years of sutter and feaster.

The best teams in the league happen to draft the best.

Let's go back 10 years instead of 5 to see just how frickin' terrible it is:

Goals Drafted 2008-2017 drafts:

Nashville: 688
Boston: 577
Tampa: 1021
Jets: 420 (the jets of course came into the league with their first draft in 2011)

Flames: 547

Over that time frame the Bruins won the cup and lost in the finals, Tampa lost in the conference final twice and the cup final once, Nashville lost in the finals once and made the second round 3 times.

The Flames made the second round once, missed the playoffs 6 times.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Ricardo’s point? Does he ever make a comprehensible point? The guy spews pure nonsense on the regular. It’s a fools errand to try and debate with Ricardo.

I've had him on my ignore list for probably 8 years at this point.

But if you're going to respond to him like Bingo does, you should probably address the meat of his argument instead of nibbling around the edges to dismiss him.

[Textcritic]

Calgary Flames drafted players:
Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Ferland
Brodie
Bennett
Jankowski
Backlund
Kulak
Klimchuk
Mangiapane
Gillies
Andersson

That's 13 players. one fewer than TB, two fewer than the Bruins, three fewer than the Predators, and four fewer than Winnipeg.

That seems pretty negligible to me, and I suspect the number will change again next season.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Calgary Flames drafted players:
Gaudreau
Monahan
Tkachuk
Ferland
Brodie
Bennett
Jankowski
Backlund
Kulak
Klimchuk
Lomberg
Mangiapane
Gillies
Andersson

That's 14 players. The same number as TB, one fewer than the Bruins, two fewer than the Predators, and three fewer than Winnipeg.

That seems pretty negligible to me.

Technically, Lomberg wasn't drafted and from Klimchuk down on that list those players were pretty underwhelming in the NHL this year, or at least aren't legit NHLers yet. So really, just 9 legit contributing NHLers on the roster this last season, at least IMO.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Technically, Lomberg wasn't drafted and from Klimchuk down on that list those players were pretty underwhelming in the NHL this year, or at least aren't legit NHLers yet. So really, just 9 legit contributing NHLers on the roster this last season, at least IMO.

The above poster included every drafted player from each team which played NHL games this season, but inexplicably stopped several short of the Flames.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The above poster included every drafted player from each team which played NHL games this season, but inexplicably stopped several short of the Flames.

Ah, fair enough.

[GranteedEV]

the Flames may be building though the draft but we've mishandled quite a few of them, especially the 10-75 range since 2013:

Klimchuk - Bust
Poirier - Bust
Kanzig - Never an NHL talent
McDonald - goalie, crapshoot
Hunter Smith - never an NHL talent
Hickey - didn't sign, was sold for virtually nothing
2015 1st - Could have been Barzal/Boeser/Connor
2015 2nd - Could have been Sprong
2015 2nd - Could have beeb Cirelli
Andersson - We signed Stone and blocked him, probably killing any trade value he might have
Kylington - Good pick being blocked by a lack of need
2016 2nd - Could have been DeBrincat or Kyrou
Parsons - goalie, crapshoot
Dube - Good pick, but not a RW
Fox - Blocked like Andersson and probably not gonna sign like Hickey because of it
Valimaki - Good pick, but not a RW
2017 2nd - I doubt Lazar pans out. Jury's out
2018 1st - None
2018 2nd - None
2018 3rd - None
2019 2nd - None

I get that people are high on Hamilton but I don't know how this team wouldn't be elite by adding one of that year's studs at forward. I mean the only RW we have drafted in this range in the last five drafts plus this year's draft is Hunter Smith. No wonder we have the weakest RW depth in the NHL. We either don't make a pick at all, or draft anything but forwards.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

the Flames may be building though the draft but we've mishandled quite a few of them, especially the 10-75 range since 2013:

Klimchuk - Bust
Poirier - Bust
Kanzig - Never an NHL talent
McDonald - goalie, crapshoot
Hunter Smith - never an NHL talent
Hickey - didn't sign, was sold for virtually nothing
2015 1st - Could have been Barzal/Boeser/Connor
2015 2nd - Could have been Sprong
2015 2nd - Could have beeb Cirelli
Andersson - We signed Stone and blocked him, probably killing any trade value he might have
Kylington - Good pick being blocked by a lack of need
2016 2nd - Could have been DeBrincat or Kyrou
Parsons - goalie, crapshoot
Dube - Good pick, but not a RW
Fox - Blocked like Andersson and probably not gonna sign like Hickey because of it
Valimaki - Good pick, but not a RW
2017 2nd - I doubt Lazar pans out. Jury's out
2018 1st - None
2018 2nd - None
2018 3rd - None
2019 2nd - None

I get that people are high on Hamilton but I don't know how this team wouldn't be elite by adding one of that year's studs at forward. I mean the only RW we have drafted in this range in the last five drafts plus this year's draft is Hunter Smith. No wonder we have the weakest RW depth in the NHL. We either don't make a pick at all, or draft anything but forwards.

This is so unbelievably reaching it borders on being obtuse.

You can take just about every team in the league and make a list like this, lamenting over players they could have taken years back in a draft with 20/20 hindsight.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The narrative is the Flames have to be one of the best drafting organizations in the league to be one of the best teams in the league in a given year. The examples of the best drafting teams over the last 5 years all happen to be the best teams in the league.

Do you think that is a coincidence? Can you asnwer Ricardo's point about showing an example of a team that has successfully built their organization by trading draft picks for immediate help?

The narrative is focusing on the last four years, not on drafting in general. If you wish to broaden the point, that's fine, but it turns it into a different conversation.

Drafted Goals in the last 4 drafts:

Calgary: 79 (if you include dougie which I don't, 121)
Jets: 187
Tampa: 60
Boston: 148
Nashville: 142

First off, you credited Nashville with 35 phantom goals. They actually have 107. Definitely better than Calgary, but entirely a function of Victor Arvidsson having four years of experience vs. Tkachuk having two.

At a glance though, it would appear that the Flames are actually well above average in this metric. There are not a lot of teams with more goals over the last four drafts than Calgary's 79, and those that are above almost inevitably had one or more picks in the top three overall.

So, if you want to put all your chickens into this one basket, then the indication is that Treliving is doing well. Though, of course, his screw up with this year's draft is going to hurt that.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

What a biased take.

So when we make good picks they are actually bad because we have decent depth on defence and you wanted a RW instead? Laughable arguments

Not sure what to say to anyone that actually laments the Doug Hamilton trade except get a clue I guess.

We have some good goalie prospect but might as well write them off as crapshoots. Oh wait isn’t the whole draft a crapshoot?

People expect perfection in said crapshoot. That’s not a realistic expectation. The Flames drafting has come miles from where it was the two decades previous but apparently people are still going to whine about it.

Rebuild went fine. The drafting was solid during it. The trade for Hamilton was a steal. The trade for Hamonic was market value. The Flames despite having traded away some picks still have a wealth of assets they can use to solidify us as a contender. That’s reality from where I’m sitting. GranteedEVs take is laughable

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

The narrative is focusing on the last four years, not on drafting in general. If you wish to broaden the point, that's fine, but it turns it into a different conversation.



First off, you credited Nashville with 35 phantom goals. They actually have 107. Definitely better than Calgary, but entirely a function of Victor Arvidsson having four years of experience vs. Tkachuk having two.

At a glance though, it would appear that the Flames are actually well above average in this metric. There are not a lot of teams with more goals over the last four drafts than Calgary's 79, and those that are above almost inevitably had one or more picks in the top three overall.

So, if you want to put all your chickens into this one basket, then the indication is that Treliving is doing well. Though, of course, his screw up with this year's draft is going to hurt that.

Damn, you're right, not sure where those extra Nashville goals come from. Must've counted Fiala twice.

Do you want to go through and do the entire league in drafted goals for the last 4 years? I'd be interested in that.

[SuperMatt18]

Nashville (12): More of the long term build. Consistently drafted well and made shrewd trades to build a winner.

2008: Wilson, Josi
2009: Ellis, Smith, Ekholm
2010: Watson
2011: Salomaki
2012: Sissons,
2013: Jones
2014: Fiala, Arvidsson
2015: -
2016: Girard


Boston (10): Really turned it around post 2014 with 6 impact players since then. (Crazy part is you could argue their 2015 picks were actually poor considering they only hit on Debrusk out of their 3 picks, and then Connor, Barzal, and Chabot went the 3 picks right after. )

2008: Colborne
2009:
2010: Seguin, Spooner
2011: Hamilton
2012:
2013:
2014: Pastrnak, Donato, Heinen
2015: Carlo, Debrusk
2016: McAvoy


Tampa (15): Really have build a team through strong early picks in the 1st round, and shrewd late round picks.

2008: Stamkos, Barberio
2009: Hedman
2010: Connolly, Gudas,
2011: Namestiknov, Kucherov, Palat
2012: Vasilevski, Paquette, Dotchin
2013: Drouin
2014: DeAngelo, Point
2015: Cirelli
2016:

Jets (14): Another one that was more of a long term patient slow build. Helps that all 3 early firsts (Scheifele, Ehlers, Laine) turned into elite NHLers.

2008: Bogosian
2009: Kane, Chariot
2010; Burmistrov
2011: Scheifele, Lowry
2012: Trouba, Hellebuyck
2013: Morrissey, Copp
2014: Ehlers
2015: Connor, Roslovic
2016: Laine

Flames (10): A couple of strong late rounders in 2008 through 2011, but have only really been able to convert on early 1st rounders since.

2008: Bouma, Brodie
2009:
2010: Ferland
2011: Gaudreau
2012: Jankowski, Kulak
2013: Monahan
2014: Bennett
2015: (Hamilton)
2016: Tkachuk

Biggest problem for the Flames IMO is the fact that we came out of what looks like a really strong 2014 draft with only Bennett to show for it.

The 2013 draft looks bad in retrospect for the Flames, and they should have hit on at least 2 of those picks but really that draft was weak outside of the top 10.

One other thing is the other teams graduated some 2015 picks that made an impact this year, while the Flames let most of their guys spend an extra year in the AHL.

I feel like they need to ensure that guys like Mangiapane, Kylington, Foo, Andersson, Dube, Valimaki, Fox, Philips, Gillies, & Parsons continue to develop and turn into something that make an impact in the NHL.

[nik-]

What is the drafted corsi over the last 4 years?

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by nik-

what is the drafted corsi over the last 4 years?

50%

[Roof-Daddy]

Anybody who laments the Dougie trade is bitter because some of the forwards who went in that area like Connor, Barzal and Boeser all had outstanding rookie seasons and the Flames biggest weakness this past season was depth scoring, especially from the forwards.

Of course, if we had kept those picks and drafted Barzal for instance, sure the forward core would look much better, but there would be a huge hole at defense and we wouldn't have had the leading defenseman in goal scoring.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

This is so unbelievably reaching it borders on being obtuse.

You can take just about every team in the league and make a list like this, lamenting over players they could have taken years back in a draft with 20/20 hindsight.

Not to mention picks were given up for Hamilton/Hamonic not thrown away

Even with hindsight its hard to beat Hamilton who lead the ####ing league in scoring

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Damn, you're right, not sure where those extra Nashville goals come from. Must've counted Fiala twice.

Do you want to go through and do the entire league in drafted goals for the last 4 years? I'd be interested in that.

Winnipeg: 187
Edmonton: 176
Toronto: 164
Boston: 148
Buffalo: 141
Phoenix: 117
Nashville: 107
Florida: 81
Calgary: 79
Vancouver: 77
Philadelphia: 75
Carolina: 74
Columbus: 70
Chicago: 66
Colorado: 63
Tampa Bay: 60
NY Islanders: 59
Detroit: 58
San Jose: 55
Anaheim: 54
New Jersey: 50
St. Louis: 50
Minnesota: 26
Los Angeles: 22
Washington: 17
Pittsburgh: 16
Montreal: 15
Ottawa: 13
Dallas: 2
NY Rangers: 2
Vegas: 0

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Anybody who laments the Dougie trade is bitter because some of the forwards who went in that area like Connor, Barzal and Boeser all had outstanding rookie seasons and the Flames biggest weakness this past season was depth scoring, especially from the forwards.

Of course, if we had kept those picks and drafted Barzal for instance, sure the forward core would look much better, but there would be a huge hole at defense and we wouldn't have had the leading defenseman in goal scoring.

but the team would be a ####load more entertaining to watch if they weren't the 27th worst offensive group in the league.

It's an opportunity cost situation as well as a cap situation. If the Flames weren't paying Dougie 5.75 at the cost a 1st and 2 2nds, could they have instead drafted one of those guys and signed a capable defender? Could they have drafted one of those guys, stunk the joint out next season and then done the hamonic deal?

I'm not trying to re-live the picks here, but it's hard to argue the Flames are building through the draft when they have no picks in the first three rounds this year so far, their second year in 4 where they won't be drafting in the 1st round.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Winnipeg: 187
Edmonton: 176
Toronto: 164
Boston: 148
Buffalo: 141
Phoenix: 117
Nashville: 107
Florida: 81
Calgary: 79
Vancouver: 77
Philadelphia: 75
Carolina: 74
Columbus: 70
Chicago: 66
Colorado: 63
Tampa Bay: 60
NY Islanders: 59
Detroit: 58
San Jose: 55
Anaheim: 54
New Jersey: 50
St. Louis: 50
Minnesota: 26
Los Angeles: 22
Washington: 17
Pittsburgh: 16
Montreal: 15
Ottawa: 13
Dallas: 2
NY Rangers: 2
Vegas: 0

Yikes.