Francis: Treliving filled with disappointment, anger after team's collapse

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I wasn’t trying to cherry pick bad trades. It’s a fact that Treliving has traded a ton of picks. To say the guys he has acquired are playing “up” in the lineup is subjective. Some aren’t playing here at all anymore, some have been healthy scratches, some bottom guys, some middle roster guys and Hamilton who is one “top” of the roster guys.

Personally I’m not a fan of this approach until you are at the point where your prospect pool is one of the top in the league and you are getting guys for a championship push.

And yes, some of these trades have been downright awful no matter the situation. Atleast after this off season most of the debts from these trades will have been paid off.

Your characterization was that they have traded a ton of picks for the bottom of the roster
I think that’s inaccurate.
Most of the picks were used to acquire top of the roster guys including number one goalies. Didn’t work out but it isn’t like they went out and dealt a ton of picks for fourth liners

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

And we are due to win one, amirite? These things have to balance out eventually.

Omg... I forgot our previously horrendous trades with the leafs.


The horror the horror!!!!!!!

[Ullr]

How about we don't trade our players and we just dump this coach.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Ullr

How about we don't trade our players and we just dump this coach.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

This teams problems are deeper than the coaching staff horrendous forward depth

[Red]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Yes and I disputed your point with facts. Once this team learned the system, they were excellent. Treliving believes in this system which is why he hand picked Gulutzan and the next guy he chooses will likely play the same system as it checks all his boxes.

People can keep ragging on coaches and systems until they’re blue in the face. But this organization has deployed 14 different coaches in 29 years and it’s lead to the exact same disappointing results over and over and over. 27 of 29 years of 1st round exits and middling finishes. We can keep going on this carousel of insanity, but I guarantee it’s not going to change anything.

A fact you are forgetting or are unaware is that GG had to abandon his system midway thru last season because it was deemed to difficult for the players to learn.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Inglewood Jack

Goal differential is so close to just outright counting wins that it's about as useful as stating the sunniest days are going to be the ones with the fewest clouds in the sky. The whole point of of the advanced stats is to try and determine which teams are playing the right way to win, whether they're currently winning or not. Those stats clearly have huge flaws right now, but using differential instead is one step away from pure hindsight.

It does not matter what the "point" of "advanced stats" is supposed to be. Stats are stats and their correlation with reality is what it is. Just because you call secondary stats "underlying" or "advanced" or "less hindisight" is meaningless.

Corsi is pretty much only ever used for two things: predicting that teams you like are better than their primary stats indicate, or that teams you don't like are worse than their primary stats indicate. This is how you get people trying to argue that somehow the Flames, whose primary stats were indicating a downfall, was actually due to "turn a corner", and this is pretty much what I hear when you suggest that we should be looking at those secondary stats to see if the team is playing well. No we shouldn't. We should be looking at the primary stats, because those "hindsight" stats are always more likely to give the right answer to that question. Of course every now and then the secondary stats will be right and the primary stats wrong, but you should never make decisions with that hope in mind, because the odds will never be in your favor.

Of course fans like us looking for hope in weak stats is harmless. However I strongly suspect that the Flames organization did exactly the same, used the flimsy cover of positive secondary stats to ignore the big blinking warning lights of the primary stats. Of course I can't know this, but I suspect unreasonable faith in secondary stats telling "the real story" about whether or not the team was "playing the right way" is a big reason why the management just stood by while the season wasted away.

If you have enough data you can always create a statistic that weakly correlates with what you want to see. Organizations have been doing this to fool themselves as long as statistics have existed.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This teams problems are deeper than the coaching staff horrendous forward depth

But you have to see what you've got under better conditions first. You don't start trading all your players after a season of under-performance.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Itse

It does not matter what the "point" of "advanced stats" is supposed to be. Stats are stats and their correlation with reality is what it is. Just because you call secondary stats "underlying" or "advanced" or "less hindisight" is meaningless.

Corsi is pretty much only ever used for two things: predicting that teams you like are better than their primary stats indicate, or that teams you don't like are worse than their primary stats indicate. This is how you get people trying to argue that somehow the Flames, whose primary stats were indicating a downfall, was actually due to "turn a corner", and this is pretty much what I hear when you suggest that we should be looking at those secondary stats to see if the team is playing well. No we shouldn't. We should be looking at the primary stats, because those "hindsight" stats are always more likely to give the right answer to that question. Of course every now and then the secondary stats will be right and the primary stats wrong, but you should never make decisions with that hope in mind, because the odds will never be in your favor.

Of course fans like us looking for hope in weak stats is harmless. However I strongly suspect that the Flames organization did exactly the same, used the flimsy cover of positive secondary stats to ignore the big blinking warning lights of the primary stats.

Of course I can't know this, but I strongly suspect unreasonable faith in secondary stats telling "the real story" is a big reason why the management just stood by while the season wasted away.

If you have enough data you can always create a statistic that weakly correlates with what you want to see. Organizations have been doing this to fool themselves about as long as statistics have existed.

We don’t know what stats the flames are using. It seems incredibly presumptuous to suggest you know better than 31 NHL teams who all use statistical analysis to support their coaching and personnel decisions at the GM level.

Looking at the primary statistics are useless for the purposes we are discussing. The whole point here is to examine whether or not the team’s play can be evaluated in such a way that helps predict outcomes and help determine personnel usage, strategy, matchups and even things like trades or call ups.

Since there are quite a few things the stats can’t predict they will never be perfect, but it doesn’t make them useless. Maybe the flames did play the right way, for some of the season anyways, but other factors prevented them from achieving success. Motivation, scoring skill, decision making, morale, off ice issues, luck, momentum, poor goaltending, fatigue, injuries etc could all play a role in why success never materialized.

The idea that the flames had good advanced stats and failed to find success, therefore advanced stats are useless is poor reasoning. As is the conclusion that the Flames put too much emphasis on these stats. We have no idea, none, what importance the Flames organization places on these metrics. Even if the Flames do place a lot of weight in advanced stats, their reliance on such analysis can’t even be conclusively determined to be a mistake since the issues preventing success may not have been fixable by a change in game by game strategy or systems.

The fact some people on CP used them to support the idea that the Flames’ results weren’t consistent with the statistics available should in no way lead anyone to conclude or even theorize that the Flames made the same mistake. There’s simply no evidence to support such a conclusion.

What’s funny is that I don’t follow advanced stats closely. I rarely have any interest in even reading the advanced analyses that were frequently posted as to why the Flames were better than their record.

And all that being said, the bottom line is that the stats that matter, wins and points, weren’t up to expectations and as such changes likely need to be made. That’s why I’m one of the people who believe it is possible Tre feels that he will need to make player personnel adjustments because he may believe it isn’t all on the coach. Then again, a coaching change wouldn’t surprise me either. I’ve long been saying that I believe our issues aren’t limited to a single problem like just the coach or just the depth or just the stars or whatever.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

The whole point here is to examine whether or not the team’s play can be evaluated in such a way that helps predict outcomes...

Again, primary stats are the bed predictor of outcomes, by far. I know people don't like this answer because it's such a banal answer. It's still the truth.

[quote]and help determine personnel usage, strategy, matchups and even things like trades or call ups. [/

As far as I know there is little to no evidence that they actually do any of these things. I'm sure some new stats do something, but for the most part the jury is probably very much still out.

Since there are quite a few things the stats can’t predict they will never be perfect, but it doesn’t make them useless.

True, that's not what makes them useless. What makes them useless is the existence of other, better stats that are so much more predictive that it's questionable whether their predictive power can be enhanced with secondary stats.

Although since secondary stats have existed for years now, I think we can safely assume that people have tried this and mostly failed. Because if they had succeeded we'd likely know about it, as development is reported while non-development is not.

The idea that the flames had good advanced stats and failed to find success, therefore advanced stats are useless is poor reasoning.

It would surely be if anyone had said something like that.

Wasn't what I said though.

What’s funny is that I don’t follow advanced stats closely. I rarely have any interest in even reading the advanced analyses that were frequently posted as to why the Flames were better than their record.

Yes, it's pretty noticeable that you don't actually read the statistics, you just comment on them as if their usefulness was a rhetorical matter.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Your characterization was that they have traded a ton of picks for the bottom of the roster
I think that’s inaccurate.
Most of the picks were used to acquire top of the roster guys including number one goalies. Didn’t work out but it isn’t like they went out and dealt a ton of picks for fourth liners

I disagree with this. The only top of the roster guy was Hamilton as I tried to make very clear in my second post. Rest were middle and bottom. As for the picks used to acquire goalies, I would argue only one was a bonafide starter and that is a guy who would start on very, very few teams in this league.

But if you really want to argue semantics, the picks traded for Bollig, Lazar, Stone and Shore were all picks for 4th liners or 3rd pairing guys. That is a 2nd, 2 3rds, a 5th and a 7th given up IIRC. That is essentially trading one entire draft year sans your first. Feel free to argue the merits of it but I believe it is a poor approach.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But you have to see what you've got under better conditions first. You don't start trading all your players after a season of under-performance.

All your players? How about two? Brodie and Bennett.

[Ullr]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This teams problems are deeper than the coaching staff horrendous forward depth

Yes, but you start with the coach and then work backwards.

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

[iamca]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

So, what is your solution? As I read this I can't help but imagine your preference would be for the Flames to conduct business in a more adversarial environment, similar to the toxic Trump Organization.

[/I]
First of all, spell his name right. Second, this is a HUGE reach from the contents of an intermission interview. I did not see it, but was Hamonic responding to questions, or did he rather decide to ignore the interviewer and proceed with his own agenda? Interview time is controlled by the interviewer, and NOT the player.

First of all the ####ing autocorrect changed the spelling of the last name and I missed it.

Trump? WTF? Are you getting political based on where I reside? Ridiculous and groundless.

You never saw a second of the interview, so you clearly don't know what I am talking about. Stop posting so much and pay attention to the actual players.

My point is this is a professional sports franchise and they seem to content with their team, fan base, and their lack of playoff success not to mention this horrific regular season is a trickle down from the way the entire franchise is handled.

[Flamenspiel]

[QUOTE=Itse;6646701]Again, primary stats are the bed predictor of outcomes, by far. I know people don't like this answer because it's such a banal answer. It's still the truth.

and help determine personnel usage, strategy, matchups and even things like trades or call ups. [/

As far as I know there is little to no evidence that they actually do any of these things. I'm sure some new stats do something, but for the most part the jury is probably very much still out.



True, that's not what makes them useless. What makes them useless is the existence of other, better stats that are so much more predictive that it's questionable whether their predictive power can be enhanced with secondary stats.

Although since secondary stats have existed for years now, I think we can safely assume that people have tried this and mostly failed. Because if they had succeeded we'd likely know about it, as development is reported while non-development is not.



It would surely be if anyone had said something like that.

Wasn't what I said though.



Yes, it's pretty noticeable that you don't actually read the statistics, you just comment on them as if their usefulness was a rhetorical matter.

It's an interesting debate, fundamentally though I find that the best way to analyze/ predict behaviour is to actually watch the games in person. Furthermore it should be a location between the blue lines and not too high.

The games are much faster on tv and you miss a lot of what's going on. When I attended 20-30 games I pretty much new how the flames were going to play at home games. It's also easier to analyze the opponent as well.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by monkeyman

For the record, BT traded picks.
Bolling for a 3rd
Hamilton for a 7th
Elliot for a 2nd and 3rd
Stone for a 3rd and a 5th
Lazar for a 2nd
Smth for a 3rd
Lack for a 6th(got a 7th)
Shore for a 7th
Hamonic 1st 2 2nds
Hamilton 1st 2 2nds

Ugh. That's the trade history of a man who A) does not trust his drafting and development, or B) is in a big hurry.

Here are the picks for players trades made by some other teams in that time frame:

Jets

Stastny for a 1st and a 4th
Morrow for a 4th
Tlusty for a 6th and a 3rd
Harrison for a 6th

Blue Jackets

Cole for a 3rd
Letestu for a 4th

Flyers

Mrazek for a 3rd and a 4th
McDonald for a 2nd and a 3rd

Lightning

McDonagh and Miller for a 1st and a 2nd
Streit for a 4th and a 7th
Coburn for a 1st and a 3rd

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Itse

Again, primary stats are the bed predictor of outcomes, by far. I know people don't like this answer because it's such a banal answer. It's still the truth.

As far as I know there is little to no evidence that they actually do any of these things. I'm sure some new stats do something, but for the most part the jury is probably very much still out.



True, that's not what makes them useless. What makes them useless is the existence of other, better stats that are so much more predictive that it's questionable whether their predictive power can be enhanced with secondary stats.

Although since secondary stats have existed for years now, I think we can safely assume that people have tried this and mostly failed. Because if they had succeeded we'd likely know about it, as development is reported while non-development is not.



It would surely be if anyone had said something like that.

Wasn't what I said though.



Yes, it's pretty noticeable that you don't actually read the statistics, you just comment on them as if their usefulness was a rhetorical matter.

Well an NHL team should hire you because clearly you have access to stats that the rest of us don’t. Either that or you still aren’t willing to recognize that things like wins and goal diff aren’t predictive, they are the results. They provide no useful data from game to game. This is about so much more than saying you think the correlation between goal diff and points is a positive one.

NHL teams know better than you. The fact that since you don’t know you dismiss the entire concept of advanced stats makes this an effort in futility.

Me not following posts on CP that discuss advanced stats is irrelevant to their usefulness to NHL teams because you don’t know what they are. Your argument seems to be that you don’t know what stats NHL teams use, therefore they must not exist or they don’t work or NHL teams are using them wrong and the stats you like, which are useless for the purposes NHL teams want advanced stats, are somehow superior.

[monkeyman]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Ugh. That's the trade history of a man who A) does not trust his drafting and development, or B) is in a big hurry.

I've said this before, but I don't think BT is very good at evaluating talent and determining unrealized potential, thus, he tends to trade for established players.

[TOfan]

^
Dillon Dube
Tyler Parsons
Matthew Tkachuck
Rasmus Anderson
Oliver Kylington
Adam Fox
Spencer Foo
Jusso Valimaki

Since Cliff Fletcher, who has been better?

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

This teams problems are deeper than the coaching staff horrendous forward depth

You can't fire 23 people.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by TOfan

^
Dillon Dube
Tyler Parsons
Matthew Tkachuck
Rasmus Anderson
Oliver Kylington
Adam Fox
Spencer Foo
Jusso Valimaki

Since Cliff Fletcher, who has been better?

Sean Monahan
Johhny Gaudreau
Mark Jankowski
Jon Gillies
Markus Granlund
Brett Kulak
Laurent Brossoit
Sven Baertschi
in one fewer year I believe.

So if that's your criteria, would you put Feaster ahead of Treliving?