How many Tkabucks do we think he’ll get?

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

He's an RFA winger who hasn't put up a 50 point season yet.

He won't even make what Monahan is making unless he puts up 70+ points next year.

Monahan had 31g/62p and 27g/63p in the 2 years leading up to his contract extension and playing a tougher position. Have you seen Treliving negotiate RFA contracts?

Points aren’t everything. If you can only keep one, who are you keeping Tkachuk or Monahan? That’s not a hard choice for me.

Not to mention the overall price of guys are going up.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

I'm all for trying to get him to sign for as little as possible, but we got to be objective.
Tkachuk had a better rookie season than Monahan, and he was also on pace for a 59pt season this year before he got hurt. From a pure numbers perspective, it's hard to make an argument that he's produced less than Monahan.
I think something along the lines of a Hamilton deal is fair.

Well, I am unsure exactly what constitutes a "pure numbers perspective," but I don't think it is at all difficult to mount an argument that Tkachuk has produced less than Monahan. Historically speaking players are judged more closely on the results of their last season, so I don't put a lot of stock into the higher production from his rookie year affecting Tkachuk's overall value. At the end of the day he his NHL totals equal those of Monahan's, but unlike Monahan, Tkachuk has yet to crest the 60-point mark—something Monahan has accomplished three times, and he plays the easier position.

[savardandjokinen]

It's very safe to say Tkachuk would be a two time 50 point guy if he played the full 82 games. And he's 20 years old. And he's still effective even if he's not scoring.

[Dion]

I'm thinking between 3.5 to 4 million on a 3 year deal bridge deal. My thinking is the Chucky camp will go this route to see where his points go with the idea of scoring a higher average on a long term deal after the bridge expires.

[Groot]

Year 1 (RFA) - 4 million
Year 2 (RFA) - 5 million
Year 3 (RFA) - 5 million
Year 4 (RFA) - 6 million
Year 5 (UFA) - 8 million
Year 6 (UFA) - 8 million
Year 7 (UFA) - 9 million
Year 8 (UFA) - 9 million

Total of 54 million over 8 years. AAV of 6.75 million per matching Gio/Gaudreau. Could probably shave off a million in a few season and get to 52 million with AAV of 6.5. Seems fair for both sides and Tkachuk still gets paid

[Bourque's Twin]

Tkachuk should undoubtedly be the team's next captain. He does everything and has the attitude that this team needs.

He was on pace for 59 points playing with Backlund and Frolik. If he were put with Monahan and Gaudreau, I think he would outscore Monahan and we could see this as one of the NHL's top lines. I think Marner and Dvorak were lucky to play with him in Junior.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Dion

I'm thinking between 3.5 to 4 million on a 3 year deal bridge deal. My thinking is the Chucky camp will go this route to see where his points go with the idea of scoring a higher average on a long term deal after the bridge expires.

uh really? GL

[Sylvanfan]

6 million and a 5 gallon pale full of mouth guards

[ricardodw]

Tkachuk is brimming with intangibles BUT he is coming off a serious concussion and he did not have a significantly better second year than his first year.

With the concussion the risk of extending him before his 3rd year is a high risk for the Flames.

Ehlers (who went back to junior for a year for seasoning)

Ehlers stats espn

He had 40 goals and 108 pts over the 2 year period.... 31 goals and 85 pts at ES.

he had an increase in goals from 15 to 25 and pts from 38 to 64

He had went from 27 to 52 es pts in his 2nd year. and from 11 to 20 es goals

Tkachuk straight into the show-

Tkachuk espn stats


Tkachuk has similar scoring line to Ehlers for the 2 years

37 goals and 97 points
At es 24 goals and 60 pts statistically inferior to Ehlers 31-85

Ehlers signed a 6M x 7 yrs before the 2017-18 season started


Based on the simple fact that Ehlers was better at ES and he was significantly better his 2nd season than his first I would definitely put Ehler's contract as the absolute high end for Tkachuk.

The intangibles break out pretty close IMHO. Tkachuk is a great power forward... Ehlers skates and plays at one of the highest paces in the league. He breaks opposing teams strategies of clogging up the neutral zone.

If Tkachuk wants a long term deal this summer 5M x 6. He has to give up some $$ to pay for the risk.

If the Flames are worried about his injury and him adjusting his style of play then they let him play the next year on his ELC.

Is he a consistent 30 goal 60 pt player? If he shows that in 2018-19 then he might get a 6/6.5 x 7 next summer.... or a bridge deal

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Tkachuk is brimming with intangibles BUT he is coming off a serious concussion and he did not have a significantly better second year than his first year.

With the concussion the risk of extending him before his 3rd year is a high risk for the Flames.

Ehlers (who went back to junior for a year for seasoning)

Ehlers stats espn

He had 40 goals and 108 pts over the 2 year period.... 31 goals and 85 pts at ES.

he had an increase in goals from 15 to 25 and pts from 38 to 64

He had went from 27 to 52 es pts in his 2nd year. and from 11 to 20 es goals

Tkachuk straight into the show-

Tkachuk espn stats


Tkachuk has similar scoring line to Ehlers for the 2 years

37 goals and 97 points
At es 24 goals and 60 pts statistically inferior to Ehlers 31-85

Ehlers signed a 6M x 7 yrs before the 2017-18 season started


Based on the simple fact that Ehlers was better at ES and he was significantly better his 2nd season than his first I would definitely put Ehler's contract as the absolute high end for Tkachuk.

The intangibles break out pretty close IMHO. Tkachuk is a great power forward... Ehlers skates and plays at one of the highest paces in the league. He breaks opposing teams strategies of clogging up the neutral zone.

If Tkachuk wants a long term deal this summer 5M x 6. He has to give up some $$ to pay for the risk.

If the Flames are worried about his injury and him adjusting his style of play then they let him play the next year on his ELC.

Is he a consistent 30 goal 60 pt player? If he shows that in 2018-19 then he might get a 6/6.5 x 7 next summer.... or a bridge deal

Less games, more points, more goals, and less productive linemates- yet Tkachuk did not improve this season? You and I were not watching the same player. Ehlers situation was vastly different- of course he improved, they put a 40 goal rookie on the wing opposite of him. If tkachuk had played opposite johnny all year we'd be talking about an 8 million a season contract lol.

In terms of serious concussion- was this ever officially confirmed as his injury? Honest question because I don't remember seeing it. As far as I can tell it's only reported as upper body, and assuming anything else is ass u ming.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, I am unsure exactly what constitutes a "pure numbers perspective," but I don't think it is at all difficult to mount an argument that Tkachuk has produced less than Monahan. Historically speaking players are judged more closely on the results of their last season, so I don't put a lot of stock into the higher production from his rookie year affecting Tkachuk's overall value. At the end of the day he his NHL totals equal those of Monahan's, but unlike Monahan, Tkachuk has yet to crest the 60-point mark—something Monahan has accomplished three times, and he plays the easier position.

At the end of their 2nd season in the NHL:
Monahan - 156GP 96points
Tkachuk - 144GP 97points

That is what constitutes a pure numbers perspective. Again, how can anyone argue that Tkachuk has produced less than Monahan at the same point in their careers?
The Ehlers contract is a pretty good comparison btw - $6M is a little high but still pretty good value i think

[Roof-Daddy]

Staying healthy is part of the deal, and also playing center is much harder than playing the wing.

Love Tkachuk, but he's not proven he should get a bigger contract than Monahan at this point.

[Knut]

How many Edmonchucks could a Tkachuk chuk if a Tkachuk could chuk Edmonchuks ?

[Vinny01]

Gaudreau cap hit max term

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Less games, more points, more goals, and less productive linemates- yet Tkachuk did not improve this season? You and I were not watching the same player. Ehlers situation was vastly different- of course he improved, they put a 40 goal rookie on the wing opposite of him. If tkachuk had played opposite johnny all year we'd be talking about an 8 million a season contract lol.

In terms of serious concussion- was this ever officially confirmed as his injury? Honest question because I don't remember seeing it. As far as I can tell it's only reported as upper body, and assuming anything else is ass u ming.

Ehlers played around 40% of the time with Laine as his RW.

You must of missed how Backlund was irreplaceable when his contract extension was given.

Tkachuk was on the ice this season without Backlund 5 on 5 95 minutes ... with Backlund 807 minutes.

In his rookie year without 142 minutes, with 855.

Both years Tkachuk's CF% drops 5-8 % without Backlund. Backlund's CF% drops 10% without Tkachuk.


concussion?

Him not being on the ice at all and not lined up for surgery kind of points to concussion.

He is just able to do some light off ice work out after 2 weeks after hitting his head against the boards. That means that he is likely having symptoms on a pretty constant basis.

Concussion protocol calls for on ice skating followed by a day of no symptoms just to keep skating. He has not started skating.

I would assume that he is having a miserable time with a couple of weeks of headaches, dizziness, nausea which have a chance to reflect on your style of play.

If not a concussion? Broken Neck, spine injury what sort of injury keeps a 20 year old athletic from working out?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Ehlers played around 40% of the time with Laine as his RW.

You must of missed how Backlund was irreplaceable when his contract extension was given.

Tkachuk was on the ice this season without Backlund 5 on 5 95 minutes ... with Backlund 807 minutes.

In his rookie year without 142 minutes, with 855.

Both years Tkachuk's CF% drops 5-8 % without Backlund. Backlund's CF% drops 10% without Tkachuk.


concussion?

Him not being on the ice at all and not lined up for surgery kind of points to concussion.

He is just able to do some light off ice work out after 2 weeks after hitting his head against the boards. That means that he is likely having symptoms on a pretty constant basis.

Concussion protocol calls for on ice skating followed by a day of no symptoms just to keep skating. He has not started skating.

I would assume that he is having a miserable time with a couple of weeks of headaches, dizziness, nausea which have a chance to reflect on your style of play.

If not a concussion? Broken Neck, spine injury what sort of injury keeps a 20 year old athletic from working out?

I'm not too sure where you're going with the Tkachuk-Backlund, Ehlers-Laine comparison. Backlund is good, but Laine is in another dimension entirely offensively. The CF% numbers you're putting out only support that Tkachuk is actually propping up Backlund, while I would say it's likely the opposite is the case for Ehlers laine.

All of those things (and more!) could be the cause of Tkachuk's injury. Until someone from the team comes out and says he was concussed, it serves us nothing to sit here and jaw and speculate about it. For all we know tkachuk has had a severely dislocated shoulder, or a fracture somewhere that has kept him resting rather than working out.
I wasn't attacking you, just questioning the assumption.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Staying healthy is part of the deal, and also playing center is much harder than playing the wing.

Love Tkachuk, but he's not proven he should get a bigger contract than Monahan at this point.

Tkachuk impacts each and every game far more than Sean Monahan ever will. Sure they are entirely different players, but the latter, you can easily argue, has been benefiting from riding shotgun with one of the top playmakers in the league. The guys that score a goal and are otherwise invisible more often than naught are part of the reason this team is not intense enough and consistently faltering when the games get tough. There aren't many times you watch a game and say wow, Monahan was dominant tonight even if he hits the scoresheet. With Tkachuk, it's every couple nights and far beyond goals and assists.

I'd gladly see the Flames pay as much or more for this kid as early as mid season next year on a long term deal. He is the type of player that takes a team deep into the playoffs and is only going to improve as he takes on more offensive opportunities under a coach that actually knows how to manage his lineup.

[Roof-Daddy]

Yeah, let's see how well Tkachuk's agent does when he comes to the negotiating table with that bag of hot air and unsubstantiated opinion. Point production, staying healthy and what position you play have far more impact on contract negotiations than all that other stuff IMO.

Again, love Tkachuk but I find it extremely unlikely he gets a bigger contract than Monahan, never mind Gaudreau. Unless of course, like I said earlier, he comes in next season and blows up for 70+ points.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I'm not too sure where you're going with the Tkachuk-Backlund, Ehlers-Laine comparison. Backlund is good, but Laine is in another dimension entirely offensively. The CF% numbers you're putting out only support that Tkachuk is actually propping up Backlund, while I would say it's likely the opposite is the case for Ehlers laine.

All of those things (and more!) could be the cause of Tkachuk's injury. Until someone from the team comes out and says he was concussed, it serves us nothing to sit here and jaw and speculate about it. For all we know tkachuk has had a severely dislocated shoulder, or a fracture somewhere that has kept him resting rather than working out.
I wasn't attacking you, just questioning the assumption.

But Ehlers only played 40% of his 5 on 5 with Laine. He played more with Wheeler who is probably a better RW.

[Macho0978]

Tkachuk and Hamilton both had slow starts to the season and both have seen a major jump in production when they went from the 2nd PP unit to the 1st PP unit. Even though Tkachuk production increased I don't think it was all his progression and lots had to do with opportunity

IMO his contract should be around Monahan's but less than Gaudreau's. $6.5 million max