Francis: Tire Fire

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

We can definitely fit him under the cap structure. When Tkachuk and Bennett need raises we might have to make a choice about shipping someone out, but if Tkachuk can stay around 5-6 on a shorter term at first, and if Bennett doesn't improve much more we won't actually have a problem.

Here is the math I did for a theoretical Kovalchuk deal:

Ok. First off, Kovalchuk isn't coming back to North America for a one-year deal. However, that hypothetical is at least not completely bat-crap crazy because it is a one year deal.

Tavares is going to be looking for max term at high cost. He won't get $13m, but you're lucky if you get him below $10m.

Also, lets look at your roster. You still have no depth at all down your right side. Your fourth line is improved, but not by much, and your defence is going to be a disaster with three cold rookies.

Also, ditching Brouwer is going to cost you between 33% (buy-out) to 50% (miracle trade with salary retained) of his $4.5 million salary. You need to factor that into your cap calculation.

Oh, and you misplaced Jankowski.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Ok. First off, Kovalchuk isn't coming back to North America for a one-year deal. However, that hypothetical is at least not completely bat-crap crazy because it is a one year deal.

Tavares is going to be looking for max term at high cost. He won't get $13m, but you're lucky if you get him below $10m.

Also, lets look at your roster. You still have no depth at all down your right side. Your fourth line is improved, but not by much, and your defence is going to be a disaster with three cold rookies.

Also, ditching Brouwer is going to cost you between 33% (buy-out) to 50% (miracle trade with salary retained) of his $4.5 million salary. You need to factor that into your cap calculation.

Oh, and you misplaced Jankowski.

You're right about Jankowski, but that's about it. I say swap him with Shore, or use him as a trade chip. Perhaps this is the way to get out of Brouwer. You only need to execute this trade if and when Tavares signs, making Jankowski extraneous.

I think the only way we have a chance to land Tavares is by outbidding other teams. Otherwise, there are better options out there. I only used the Kovalchuk example because i had taken the time to add up the cap hits.
If Tavares would accept a McDavid deal, I don't think it hurts us to the extent that some of you are trying to sell. We can work a 12.5 mil a season contract into our budget because we have monahan/gaudreau on value deals. In regards to the right side argument, it becomes moot- we essentially beef up and have 2 top lines (gaudreau/Monahan, Tavares/Tkachuk) and leave our third line up to Backlund, who has shown he can certainly fill the role. I think Bennett has enough creativity to hand with Tkachuk and Tavares, while we already know Ferland is adequate on the wing of M-G. Backlund and frolik have shown that they can take on almost anyone.

You'll notice (of course i don't think you actually read it...) that in my cap calculations I actually included Brouwer's salary as is. After the next full year his buyout becomes more manageable, as does a potential deal to escape him entirely. Tkachuk is more important to keep then Bennett, but if Bennett does enough to deserve a raise and puts us in a bad position to resign him because of that, it will be a good problem to have.

All I ask is that you stop making claims without actually looking at the math. If you look at the math it doesn't actually seem unfeasible.

[Monahammer]

I will do it for you.
Next season:
Tkachuk (.925)- Tavares (12.5)- Bennett (1.95)
Gaudreau (6.75) - Monahan (6.375) - Ferland (1.75)
Lazar (.950) - Backlund (5.35) - Frolik (4.3)
Hathaway (.650) - Jankowski (1.5) - Brouwer (4.5)

(extra forward ~ .650)
48.45 million for forwards

Giordano (6.75)- Hamilton (5.75)
Brodie (4.650)- Hamonic (3.857)
Kulak (1) - Andersson (.755)
(extra d ~.650)
23.412 Million for D

Mike Smith ( 4.25)
Rittich (1)
5.25 million for G

Cap: 78 Mil
Buyouts: 904,167
Committed: 76.812
Total:77,716,167
Remaining: -283,833

2 seasons out (estimating cap at 80 mil, with a brouwer buyout instead of a trade):

Tkachuk (6.5)- Tavares (12.5)- Bennett (4)
Gaudreau (6.75) - Monahan (6.375) - Ferland (3)
Lazar (.950) - Backlund (5.35) - Frolik (4.3)
Hathaway (.650) - Jankowski (1.5) - Mangiapane (.705)

(extra forward ~ .650)
53.23 million for forwards

Giordano (6.75)- Hamilton (5.75)
Valimaki (.925)- Hamonic (3.857)
Kylington (.730) - Andersson (.755)
(extra d ~.650)
19.417 Million for D

Mike Smith ( 4.25) (THESE ARE PLACEHOLDERS because i don't want to speculate about goalie futures)
Rittich (1)
5.25 million for G

Cap: 80
Buyouts: 1.5 Mil (2 years)
Committed: 77.897
Total:79,397,000
Remaining: - 603,000

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Gio is declining from where he was a few years ago but he's still very effective and the most dependable defender on the team. I just can't see Treliving even considering moving him seeing how there's already a bit of a leadership void amongst this group.

I think fans are getting overly excited about this end of season swoon as for 3/4 of the season they were good enough to be in the playoff race despite a coaching staff that hindered success. Things don't need to be blown up. Sure a player like Brodie can be moved for some offensive help and there will be some shuffling in the bottom 6 but the team is close and only needs better coaching and a few tweaks. The talk of trading Gaudreau, Hamilton, Monahan, etc is ludicrous.

Pfft. You know what a bunch of know it alls probably considered ludicrous as well?

- The talk of Montreal trading Subban
- The talk of Nashville trading Weber

Guess what happened?

[Flamenspiel]

^^No, they were talking about Subban being traded for 3 years prior to the move. Subban has a very bad contract for the team, and still does as he is making the same salary as Crosby and McDavid. JG has a great contract and he is out performing it.

Also, some would say it did not turn out that well for Montreal....

Small moves can make a big difference in the NHL. Look at Kane to San Jose, not that they will win the cup but it has made a big difference. You don't have to trade the franchise player.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

All I ask is that you stop making claims without actually looking at the math. If you look at the math it doesn't actually seem unfeasible.

Oh, I'm not doubting you've done the math. Though, to further nitpick, you're not accounting for bonuses, particularly for Valimaki.

What I am doubting is that you are materially improving the team. What you've done is build a cap team with dramatic holes in its roster. My point is that I don't see your proposed roster as materially improved over this year's.

Beyond that, you've left yourself with a Sophie's choice. In order for that roster to be highly competitive, you need Bennett plus two of those three defensive rookies to instantly become high achievers. Except if you do, your window for contending is basically two years, starting next year, before those same players start getting raises and make a total mess of our cap situation.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Oh, I'm not doubting you've done the math. Though, to further nitpick, you're not accounting for bonuses, particularly for Valimaki.

What I am doubting is that you are materially improving the team. What you've done is build a cap team with dramatic holes in its roster. My point is that I don't see your proposed roster as materially improved over this year's.

Beyond that, you've left yourself with a Sophie's choice. In order for that roster to be highly competitive, you need Bennett plus two of those three defensive rookies to instantly become high achievers. Except if you do, your window for contending is basically two years, starting next year, before those same players start getting raises and make a total mess of our cap situation.

I factored in a healthy Bennett raise (to 4 Million, more than he deserves at this point...). You are correct on the bonus front, but I do think there are more savings to be made elsewhere, and I chose very modest cap increases.
In terms of the Dmen performing, I would say that the roster assembled couldn't preform much worse than our current set. I think we're cutting salary without really losing much performance.
The holes up front- I also don't see how it's not an improvment on our current lot. I think you won't really notice the gap in production on the right side if you account for the added production Tavares would bring, and by extension how much extra you could get out of J-M, or even Backlund's line, if they all faced more favorable d matchups. I think this is fundamentally because I believe our forward problems are not because of a lack of wing talent, but actually because we need another strong centre that can push Backlund down to the 3rd line spot. Further cap savings/potential increases in production can be found if any of our forward prospects (Dube, Mangiapane, Foo for example) turn out and are able to make Frolik or Ferland expendable.

So, I don't see the holes being as dramatic as you've stated. I think the only real question mark is the goalies past 2018-2019.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Oh, I'm not doubting you've done the math. Though, to further nitpick, you're not accounting for bonuses, particularly for Valimaki.

What I am doubting is that you are materially improving the team. What you've done is build a cap team with dramatic holes in its roster. My point is that I don't see your proposed roster as materially improved over this year's.

Beyond that, you've left yourself with a Sophie's choice. In order for that roster to be highly competitive, you need Bennett plus two of those three defensive rookies to instantly become high achievers. Except if you do, your window for contending is basically two years, starting next year, before those same players start getting raises and make a total mess of our cap situation.

I don't think so necessarily. If Bennett can put up around 40 points that top line will still be good. And in the first year of Tavares' contract I only added Rasmus to the D layout and subtracted stone, which I think is a net positive. The year after would require us shipping out Brodie too, but I am already on board with that. Perhaps in 2 years Valimaki will be more than ready to assume his role.

[Resolute 14]

40 points for a top line RW is awful, man. That's what Ferland gave us this year We need a lot more out of that position.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

40 points for a top line RW is awful, man. That's what Ferland gave us this year We need a lot more out of that position.

Yeah but you're completely avoiding the possibility that our first line from this year becomes out effective second line. Lineup and projected point totals below, with this seasons points in brackets.

Tkachuk- 60 points (49 points in 68 games), Tavares- 80 points (78 in 75) , Bennett- 40 points (26 in 76)
Gaudreau- 80 points (82 in 76) , Monahan- 60 points (64 in 74) , Ferland-40 points (40 in 71)
Lazar- 30 points (9 in 59), Backlund-40 points (41 in 76) , Frolik- 30 points (23 in 64)

Play the first two lines equally at around 19 mins/night, the third line at around 14, and the 4th plays the scraps.

I think those are fair approximations for potential point totals, I would actually hope to see more from several of those players.

Our right wingers won't really matter.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

^^No, they were talking about Subban being traded for 3 years prior to the move. Subban has a very bad contract for the team, and still does as he is making the same salary as Crosby and McDavid. JG has a great contract and he is out performing it.

Also, some would say it did not turn out that well for Montreal....

Small moves can make a big difference in the NHL. Look at Kane to San Jose, not that they will win the cup but it has made a big difference. You don't have to trade the franchise player.

Subban makes $9M. He's won a Norris trophy, he went to the finals his first year in Nashville and they're one of the top teams in the league. Subban has 94 points as a Predator, and he's only a year older than Brodie.

No way no how does PK Subban have a bad contract, especially when you look at what Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty are about to get.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Yeah but you're completely avoiding the possibility that our first line from this year becomes out effective second line. Lineup and projected point totals below, with this seasons points in brackets.

Tkachuk- 60 points (49 points in 68 games), Tavares- 80 points (78 in 75) , Bennett- 40 points (26 in 76)
Gaudreau- 80 points (82 in 76) , Monahan- 60 points (64 in 74) , Ferland-40 points (40 in 71)
Lazar- 30 points (9 in 59), Backlund-40 points (41 in 76) , Frolik- 30 points (23 in 64)

Play the first two lines equally at around 19 mins/night, the third line at around 14, and the 4th plays the scraps.

I think those are fair approximations for potential point totals, I would actually hope to see more from several of those players.

Our right wingers won't really matter.

Who's going to get the premium PP time?

Because the current 1st line won't get the same point totals without it.

[ricardodw]

take the worry out of trading low..... as all Flames are right now.

Move Hamilton up to RW. Right now he is a liability on defense and a top player on the PP.

That improves your forward scoring and will likely help the goal tending with better defensive zone coverage.

It will bring the Flames fancy stats back to reality as Hamilton's team leading (top 2 in the league for defensemen) SOG and Shot attempts and low shooting percentage is skewing the corsi stats.

Go with a #1 line of Bennett between Tkachuk and Hamilton.

Hamilton with Gaudreau and Monahan would be good against non-playoff teams but would be too passive and easily beaten in important games against good teams....

Move Backlund to the RW on the Gaudreau / Monahan line and let him cover for the offensive first last and only guys.

[Dajazz]

Wut.

This place has gone bananas. Hamilton RW?

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

Wut.

This place has gone bananas. Hamilton RW?

Brouwer in net!

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

Brouwer in net!

Iginla head coach!

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Iginla head coach!

Well...that one might legitimately be an improvement.

[Looch City]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

Brouwer in net!

And bring back Wideman.

[Calgary4LIfe]

One can be fairly safe in assuming that the changes in this upcoming off-season won't just be limited to a coaching change (I mean, there HAS to be a coaching change, right?).

I welcome that - some turnover is always good, and if Treliving can find a way to upgrade the roster, then great.

However, I am of the opinion that if the exact team comes back with an actual semblance of a professional and experienced coaching staff, that actually knows how to coach and how to motivate players, and can institute a system that actually plays to the strengths of this team (fast transition with lots of focus on activating defencemen, and no Brouwer on the PP!), this team will be much better.

I have written in the past that aside from a few 'average' skaters with high IQ (Monahan and Tkachuk), this team only has one slow skater (Brouwer) and one 'average' to 'slightly below average' in Stone on defence.

Every other player on this team can skate well. Every other defencemen can skate well (and in some cases, skate exceptionally well). It is a travesty that a coach feels he needs to utilize a '5 man breakout' featuring 'd-to-d' passes until everyone is in position to breakout.

Yeah, you are still going to score goals that way. You will still experience some success. However, this is how a SLOW team with aging vets should be breaking out, or at least a team devoid of defencemen that can skate well with the puck to help the transition, or make an accurate pass up the ice quickly.

The Flames wasted two seasons trying to play this system. They neutralized their own speed. Speed is so important in today's modern game, and the quicker you can transition the puck and go on the attack, the less likely that the other team is going to be ready to counter you. This has been my argument all season.

I am 100% ok with absolutely no moves happening this off-season. Is it a perfect team that can compete for the cup the way it is built now? No, but it is a MUCH better team than the standings show it is. It is the system that is killing this team, not so much the personnel.

Of course, I would prefer Treliving make a couple of moves to shore-up the team, but I am deftly afraid that it is going to be a bad trade. I think trading Brodie would be a bad trade - I don't care what people say right now, I think he is very much a core piece that needs to be able to play to his strengths, and his confidence and resulting play will increase.

At least we can now (mostly) agree - Gulutzan has not been much of an upgrade (if at all) over Hartley, even disregarding the vastly improved roster (especially goaltending and defence). Gulutzan - like Hartley - has taken this team as far as he could (which especially under Gulutzan, seemed somewhat backwards).

Quit fricken coaching for corsi. Good corsi is a product of a good hockey team FFS, not something you implement a strategy around! Fire Gulutzan today. This is beyond tiresome. I don't even expect much (if any) changes with regards to on-ice performance or a change in systems. I would just like someone new behind the bench - even temporarily - that wouldn't put Brouwer on the PP any longer, and just let's the players play with less restrictions. Make the ending to this boring and depressing season at least somewhat interesting to a fan like me. I don't want to see Gulutzan get fired to satisfy my inclining for a pound of flesh, or some sacrifice to appease the gods. This is a boring team to watch play on most nights, and they are not successful, and this system is NOT helping them win. Get rid of Gulutzan, scrap the system (heck, no system to round out the year!), and change things up. See how Hamonic does on the left side with Brodie on the right (assuming he returns from injury). See how Smith can actually help with a fast transition game for once! See what a quick passing powerplay with players actually moving out there looks like on this team (2nd unit with the injuries we have, but still!).

Just want some fresh ideas out there to wrap this season up. Is it that much to ask for with a coach that is most likely about to be let-go this off-season?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Dajazz

Wut.

This place has gone bananas. Hamilton RW?

You don't think that Hamilton has the hockey smarts to play RW?

He does not seem to have the instincts to Play defense and would be less of a liability being a weaker defensive player on the wing.

Worked with Byfuglien and Burns. Gave them a better appreciation and understanding of the game while not dragging down their teams as they learned how to play defense.