The trials and tribulations of Glen Gulutzan - Page 210 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Enoch Root · 03-20-2018, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

https://twitter.com/petbugs13/status/976134808681132032

Link showing the Flames actually pushing the play more than most teams in different score situations.

So the Flames are the worst team in the league at 5 on 5 goals when up 1? Am I reading that correctly?

If so, who cares what the CF/60 is?

Bingo · 03-20-2018, 03:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So the Flames are the worst team in the league at 5 on 5 goals when up 1? Am I reading that correctly?

If so, who cares what the CF/60 is?

Posted for the discussion of "sitting back", the Flames push the play even when up in a game more than almost any team.

Enoch Root · 03-20-2018, 03:11 PM

Quote:

As you can see, when we remove events (blocked shots, missed shots) we lose both repeatability and predictivity.

Far too much noise. When you're better off with blocked and missed shots than without (when speaking about high danger scoring chances), then you have to step back and ask if the stats are showing what we want them to show.

Bingo · 03-20-2018, 03:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Far too much noise. When you're better off with blocked and missed shots than without (when speaking about high danger scoring chances), then you have to step back and ask if the stats are showing what we want them to show.

Sigh ...

just posted to show the difference between scoring chances and high danger ... blocked shots and shots wide.

Enoch Root · 03-20-2018, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Posted for the discussion of "sitting back", the Flames push the play even when up in a game more than almost any team.

How are they defining pushing the play? CF/60?

If they're 31st in the league in goal differential, then one has to ask: is CF/60 a good measure of pushing the play, because the results say otherwise.

Or they are the unluckiest team in the league, and I am sorry but that's just a horrible conclusion to try and draw.

Bingo · 03-20-2018, 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

How are they defining pushing the play? CF/60?

If they're 31st in the league in goal differential, then one has to ask: is CF/60 a good measure of pushing the play, because the results say otherwise.

Or they are the unluckiest team in the league, and I am sorry but that's just a horrible conclusion to try and draw.

The current pushing the play summary is corsi events for and against per 60 minutes to which the Flames are very high.

It's a measure that certainly suggests the puck goes back and forth quite a bit, I mean how could it not?

Doesn't necessarily mean pushing the play is the way to go however, and I wonder if that's the area to dig into.

Either way massive corsi events for and against don't speak to a team playing safe or hoping to get to overtime.

Jiggy · 03-20-2018, 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

https://twitter.com/petbugs13/status/976134808681132032

Link showing the Flames actually pushing the play more than most teams in different score situations.

I think this proves the Flames don't have enough players that can finish. If they did the Flames would be in a playoff spot right now.

Beninho · 03-20-2018, 03:28 PM

Frolik, Backlund, and Bennett all have been terrible at finishing plays off this year.

colbym72 · 03-20-2018, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beninho

Frolik, Backlund, and Bennett all have been terrible at finishing plays off this year.

Bennett career shooting percentage: 10.5% - 2017/18 - 7.9%

Backlund career shooting percentage: 9.0% - 2017/18 - 6.8%

Frolik career shooting percentage: 7.8% - 2017/18 - 6.6%

Stajan career shooting percentage: 12,7% - 2017/18 - 6.3%

Its crazy to me that these guys are all down. Is that coaching? Is that unlucky? I have no idea honestly but its certainly a difference maker when key players are down that much

zamler · 03-20-2018, 03:32 PM

What is the point of trotting out these stats? They change nothing. Are we supposed to look at them and say, oh well I was wrong this is a really good team season tickets renewed.

colbym72 · 03-20-2018, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by zamler

What is the point of trotting out these stats? They change nothing. Are we supposed to look at them and say, oh well I was wrong this is a really good team season tickets renewed.

Because I like to have a discussion that is backed up with some data and quantifiable facts. Would you prefer I just say GlueGun and call people idiots and go fly into the sun like other posts?

Toonage · 03-20-2018, 03:34 PM

Very much a rorschach painting, huh?

Make of them what you will I guess.

Bingo · 03-20-2018, 03:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colbym72

Because I like to have a discussion that is backed up with some data and quantifiable facts. Would you prefer I just say GlueGun and call people idiots and go fly into the sun like other posts?

This is where I stand too.

Notice in my replies I'm not saying they should keep Gulutzan or that it proves a run of bad luck.

Just bringing forth what's available.

I sure hope the Flames are doing the same.

The average NHL forward that has played more than 40 games this year has a shooting percentage off 11.4%

Only Ferland, Monahan, Jankowski and Tkachuk top that. Notable misses ... Gaudreau, Bennett, Backlund, Frolik, Brouwer, Stajan, Versteeg.

The average NHL defenseman that has played more than 40 games this year has a shooting percentage of 5.2%

Only Giordano and Hamilton have topped that. Notable exceptions are Brodie who is shooting below the career average of Laddy Smid, Kulak and Stone who are well below the Smid line.

This team can't finish.

And this doesn't take into account how often they miss the net!

Shazam · 03-20-2018, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Be as pissy as you want.

As it stands its a stat that looks at shot attempts near the net that aren't blocked or shot wide.

Is what it is.

It was a joke.

Wonder what the team's PDO is these days. It must be terrible.

The line of reasoning that comes from this a posteriori knowledge doesn't seem too useful.

I guess I should do some real statistical analysis on it one day. Have my own machine learning problems to work on though.

colbym72 · 03-20-2018, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

This is where I stand too.

Notice in my replies I'm not saying they should keep Gulutzan or that it proves a run of bad luck.

Just bringing forth what's available.

I sure hope the Flames are doing the same.

The average NHL forward that has played more than 40 games this year has a shooting percentage off 11.4%

Only Ferland, Monahan, Jankowski and Tkachuk top that. Notable misses ... Gaudreau, Bennett, Backlund, Frolik, Brouwer, Stajan, Versteeg.

The average NHL defenseman that has played more than 40 games this year has a shooting percentage of 5.2%

Only Giordano and Hamilton have topped that. Notable exceptions are Brodie who is shooting below the career average of Laddy Smid, Kulak and Stone who are well below the Smid line.

This team can't finish.

And this doesn't take into account how often they miss the net!

and i dont know enough about the strategy of hockey to say this is or is not because of a coach, but some of these key guys who had percentages just dip before are still in at a age where it shouldn't just drop that much. We have seen these guys score before so its just so weird to me. I'm fine with whatever happens to GG and I do lean towards his exit. I appreciate good discussion on here where there isn't name calling and 12 year old trolling. I could go to the Facebook comments for that

Bingo · 03-20-2018, 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colbym72

and i dont know enough about the strategy of hockey to say this is or is not because of a coach, but some of these key guys who had percentages just dip before are still in at a age where it shouldn't just drop that much. We have seen these guys score before so its just so weird to me. I'm fine with whatever happens to GG and I do lean towards his exit. I appreciate good discussion on here where there isn't name calling and 12 year old trolling. I could go to the Facebook comments for that

I think five on five they're fine.

I think the powerplay has killed them.

So coaching plays a role for sure, even if it's indirectly because of an assistant coach, or deployment on special teams, who plays with who.

Lanny_McDonald · 03-20-2018, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Be as pissy as you want.

As it stands its a stat that looks at shot attempts near the net that aren't blocked or shot wide.

Is what it is.

It is garbage, has always been garbage, and will continue to be garbage. Advanced stats. The NHL's version of:

Resolute 14 · 03-20-2018, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not how I understand it ...

Devils Site Article

and

Ahh, crap. You're right. CF always means "corsi for", except when it doesn't.

zamler · 03-20-2018, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colbym72

Because I like to have a discussion that is backed up with some data and quantifiable facts. Would you prefer I just say GlueGun and call people idiots and go fly into the sun like other posts?

I'm all for looking at data but it seems like it is being used as a crutch. If advanced statistics were that important then coaches would simply parrot to the players what a computer tells them to and do nothing else.

IMO coaching is the biggest X-factor.

Beninho · 03-20-2018, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colbym72

Bennett career shooting percentage: 10.5% - 2017/18 - 7.9%

Backlund career shooting percentage: 9.0% - 2017/18 - 6.8%

Frolik career shooting percentage: 7.8% - 2017/18 - 6.6%

Stajan career shooting percentage: 12,7% - 2017/18 - 6.3%

Its crazy to me that these guys are all down. Is that coaching? Is that unlucky? I have no idea honestly but its certainly a difference maker when key players are down that much

No idea, the one I’m most concerned about is Backlund. I don’t think he’s been terrible since Tkachuk’s absence but you can tell without Tkachuk that line is far less potent. Backlund often boosts other players who play with him, but offensively that line has been driven by Tkachuk for two years. That second line has the offensive output of a 3rd line without Tkachuk.

The second line has been pretty much a non-factor offensively down the stretch. That’s worrying for me, especially when they just invested long term in Backlund. Frolik is more a less around where his usual point totals are, but the amount of times he fails to finish off plays and constant whiffing on pucks tells me that line would be much more effective with another true top 6 point producer. Bennett’s finishing has been an issue for 2 years now, some say he’s just unlucky but at some point it can’t just be luck, 26 pts so far this year and 11 goals is just not good enough from him. He’s been such a letdown. Part of that falls on him and part on the coaching staff. Something is wrong when a player cannot match their rookie goal scoring totals for 2 straight seasons.