Treliving needs to start feeling the heat

[driveway]

Originally Posted by Hackey

People are acting like you just head to the store and pick up an elite goaltender. Most elite tenders are drafted by their team.

I decided to do a little digging on the idea of an 'elite' tender and see whether they are more often drafted by the team, or aquired by trade. I set the benchmark for 'elite' at the following: multiple seasons of playing more than 50 games, SV% of .920 or better.

Over the last ten years, there have been 20 goalies to have acheived this mark.

More than 3 seasons
Henrik Lundkvist (5) - NYR - (Drafted - round 7 - by New York Rangers)
Carey Price (4) - MTL - (Drafted - round 1 - by Montreal)
Pekka Rinne (4) - NSH) - (Drafted - round 8 - by Nashville)

3 Seasons
Sergei Bobrovsky - CBJ - (Aquired by trade)
Braden Holtby - WSH - (Drafted - round 4 - by Washington)
Roberto Luongo - VAN/FLA - (Aquired by trade - both teams)
Tim Thomas - BOS - (UFA Signing by Boston)
Thomas Vokun - FLA - (Aquired by trade)

2 Seasons
Corey Crawford - CHI - (Drafted - round 2 - by Chicago)
Ilya Bryzgalov - PHX - (Aquired by trade)
Ben Bishop - TBL - (Aquired by trade)
Devan Dubnyk - ARI/MIN - (Aquired by trade, both teams)
Marc-Andre Fleury - PIT - (Drafted - round 1 - by Pittsburgh)
John Gibson - ANA - (Drafted - round 2 - by Anaheim)
Jimmy Howard - DET - (Drafted - round 2 - by Detroit)
Miika Kiprusoff - CGY - (Acquired by trade)
Jonathan Quick - LAK - (Drafted - round 3 - By Los Angeles)
Tuuka Rask - BOS - (Aquired by trade)
Corey Schneider - NJD - (Aquired by trade)
Semyon Varlamov - COL - (Aquired by trade)


Can firm conclusions be drawn? I don't really think so, but here's what it looks like to me.

1. The Henrik Lundvist pick is the best draft pick of all-time.

2. The absolute top-end of this list are all draft picks of their teams, but after that it becomes pretty hit-and-miss for drafting or aquiring by trade.

3. Goalies aquired by trade seem to be as likley to perform well for short periods of time, but less likely to sustain greatness over the long term.

4. You don't need a season like this from your starter to win the Cup, but it sure helps.

5. Round 2 is the money round for goalies.

6. These seasons are somewhat, but not insanely rare. There have been 199 50-games seasons by goalies since 08-09. There have been 52 50-game, .920-or-better seasons, or slightly more than 25%. Take the top three goalies out, though, and that drops to only 19% of seasons.


7. A good GM should pursue a two-pronged strategy of drafting and developing as well as seeking a starter through trades.

[Pointman]

Flames should eliminate POHO position and direct that money towards the increase of the coaching budget.

[Monahammer]

I have been preaching the above for a while. Monahan and Backlund are great, but we need another centre that's about their skill level to balance out the lines. We are deep if Backlund is our 3rd line centre and not so deep if he's our second!
Turris would have been excellent. I am still wondering if there's any possibility we could snag Ryan O'Reilly. Jankowski+D prospect maybe?

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Bennett-Ryan O'Reilly- Tkachuk
(signed player or prospect (mangiapane?))- Backlund- Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer

That is a much stronger lineup.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I have been preaching the above for a while. Monahan and Backlund are great, but we need another centre that's about their skill level to balance out the lines. We are deep if Backlund is our 3rd line centre and not so deep if he's our second!
Turris would have been excellent. I am still wondering if there's any possibility we could snag Ryan O'Reilly. Jankowski+D prospect maybe?

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Bennett-Ryan O'Reilly- Tkachuk
(signed player or prospect (mangiapane?))- Backlund- Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer

That is a much stronger lineup.

You need either an high end centre or a winger.

An O'Reilly type or a Hoffman/Stone type for more scoring prowess.

Leverage what we have which is organizational defense depth and fill the whole up front.

I think Dube should be able to maybe make the jump next year on Backlund and Frolik's line.

I'd think about trading Bennett with a D for a RW.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Bunk

You need either an high end centre or a winger.

An O'Reilly type or a Hoffman/Stone type for more scoring prowess.

Leverage what we have which is organizational defense depth and fill the whole up front.

I think Dube should be able to maybe make the jump next year on Backlund and Frolik's line.

I'd think about trading Bennett with a D for a RW.

I think they need two forward upgrades.
My ideal off-season trade is Bennett+Brodie for Galchyenyuk + Gallagher.

[Stay Golden]

Thanks to Treliving we can't even look forward to the draft helping out. Think about this if Treliving makes a Brodie, Bennett trade to get back into the early rounds of the draft he just traded away current assets just to draft players for the "future". The hiring of mumbling bumbling Gulutzan, forcing Flames fans and the roster suffer through his tenure is by far Treliving's most significant debacle.

[442scotty]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think they need two forward upgrades.
My ideal off-season trade is Bennett+Brodie for Galchyenyuk + Gallagher.

I like this trade but I'm pretty sure we would have to add a prospect D to the pot because we would be taking Montreal to the cleaners on this one otherwise

[Sylvanfan]

I think it would be rather foolish to get rid of Treliving after this season. But I do wonder if a more patient President to set some Framework for him to work in would help.

The Flames have appeared to fall into the same trap that most Canadian teams do. They get over excited at signs of progression and tend to jump the gun trying to accelerate the rebuild.

They parted with really good assets to land Dougie Hamilton, although at least they did it when the value of those was 100% certain. At the end of the day, it's a good trade, but I personally don't know if that move launched the team as far forward as they thought.

In the case of the Hamonic deal, they traded futures with undetermined value for right now help. Today this deal has not worked out. Maybe not so much because of Hamonic, but more from the larger picture perspective that the team didn't progress on ice, and not is without the future building blocks to allow it to progress.

The team realistically had one year of "rebuild", than overachieved to get to the playoffs, and has approached each coming season with a go for it mentality. When the on ice results really did not indicate that the team was ready for that mentality.

[Flash Walken]

Bad Teams seem to have Eras:

The Wirtz Era Blackhawks
The Ballard Era Leafs

How long until Flames fans start to regard the last 25 years as the "Edwards Era"?

[GordonBlue]

wonder what the feeling around the league is.
curious if other GM's think Brodie just needs to be deployed correctly, or if they feel he's a low IQ player who makes far too many stupid plays and was previously propped up by Gio.
depending what the general opinion is would reflect his value. might not be worth it to trade him.

someone also suggested trading Hamonic. that will never happen as you'll not get back anything near what the flames paid for him, and he has a good contract.
Plus I just think he's better than what he's shown this year, playing partner aside.

[Toonage]

There are very smart GMs who will gladly take a chance on Brodie regaining his form on the right side. However they will also be the ones lowballing the Flames in an attempt to do so.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Bad Teams seem to have Eras:

The Wirtz Era Blackhawks
The Ballard Era Leafs

How long until Flames fans start to regard the last 25 years as the "Edwards Era"?

Too many people have the bar set at "being better than the Oilers" so they don't really think about it.

[Flash Walken]

This is the 3rd season now where Brodie has been subpar defensively.

The book is out on him I believe.

This isn't some aberration. Say what you will about +/- and I will agree, but Brodie is a -28 since the start of the 2015-2016 season (225 games). Gio is a +22 (236 games).

The only players close to Brodie over that span are Wideman (-15 in 108 games), Brouwer (-13 in 141 games) and Bennett (-41 in 231 games).

Hartley was using Brodie a lot, but it wasn't generating wins in my opinion, there just weren't a ton of other options so over the boards he went.

I've read the arguments that if he was playing on the other side he'd be great. But then, I have to question, is a guy who can only play on one side of the ice without being a liability really that good? I see the example being Oduya, that once he was switched to his other side, he improved significantly.

Is the argument then that Brodie is an Oduya-level player? That doesn't sound that great.

[Classic_Sniper]

The supposed strength of the team is chocked full of self-inflicted wounds from the back end. We saw it yesterday with the Dougie's constant parade to the penalty box. That's 3 straight games with a minor penalty and currently, he sits atop the throne as the undisputed minor penalty king of this team.

Brodie with his turnovers. He and Hamonic just aren't good enough defensively to cover up for all these mistakes. By now, I think it's pretty obvious that Tre gambled and lost the trade for Hamonic by not protecting the pick. A lot of character in that guy, but when you couple the increased expectations along with his average defense and below average offensive production, the value just hasn't been there to justify a potential lottery debacle.

Been quite unimpressed with Stone as well. We gave up a 3rd and a 5th for him and I figured he'd be a force back there playing against easier competition. But his lack of mobility and the -10 he's sporting just hasn't been good enough either.

Not saying the defense has been the team's biggest problem this season. But it certainly has certainly contributed to our lackluster performances. Outside of Giordano, who's an absolute rock for this team in every possibly way imaginable. I'm not sure I'd be sad if any of the other guys were traded to fill holes elsewhere.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I think they need two forward upgrades.
My ideal off-season trade is Bennett+Brodie for Galchyenyuk + Gallagher.

I wonder if Montreal goes full rebuild and looks at ways of dumping Price and his gigantically terrifying contract.

...I'd take on Price's contract, and Gallagher seems like a perfect fit.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

The supposed strength of the team is chocked full of self-inflicted wounds from the back end. We saw it yesterday with the Dougie's constant parade to the penalty box. That's 3 straight games with a minor penalty and currently, he sits atop the throne as the undisputed minor penalty king of this team.

Brodie with his turnovers. He and Hamonic just aren't good enough defensively to cover up for all these mistakes. By now, I think it's pretty obvious that Tre gambled and lost the trade for Hamonic by not protecting the pick. A lot of character in that guy, but when you couple the increased expectations along with his average defense and below average offensive production, the value just hasn't been there to justify a potential lottery debacle.

Been quite unimpressed with Stone as well. We gave up a 3rd and a 5th for him and I figured he'd be a force back there playing against easier competition. But his lack of mobility and the -10 he's sporting just hasn't been good enough either.

Not saying the defense has been the team's biggest problem this season. But it certainly has certainly contributed to our lackluster performances. Outside of Giordano, who's an absolute rock for this team in every possibly way imaginable. I'm not sure I'd be sad if any of the other guys were traded to fill holes elsewhere.

The Flames defence is about average at generating offence, and well below average at stopping the other team from scoring. Two of the top four - Hamilton and Brodie - are poor defensively, and routinely make boneheaded plays in their own zone.

The Flames defence simply isn't that good. Coaching may help things on the offensive side, but I don't think coaching will make Brodie or Hamilton smarter or more disciplined. They are what they are.

[flamesfever]

As I see it, I think Tre is in a tough position, in that his major player acquisitions and coaching choices did not work out as planned.

I think the first bad move started with giving up too much for Hamilton. In spite of his size and ability to score, IMO he really lacks the rugged shutdown skills we need. Also IMO because he has to play with Gio, we have sacrificed Brodie. He also didn't come cheap and takes bad penalties.

Next acquiring Brouwer needs no explanation.

Thirdly using similar tactics we gave up too much to acquire Hamonic.

As far as Tre's coaching choices, the results speak for themselves.

Now we have a critical shortage of draft picks. The only positive thing I can see for the future is we have some excellent prospects...hopefully we don' t compound our problems by trading them away.

[868904]

I like Treliving as the GM, think he's smart and works hard and the potential is there to be really good, but if he won't fire GG, then he needs to go too.

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I think it would be rather foolish to get rid of Treliving after this season. But I do wonder if a more patient President to set some Framework for him to work in would help.

The Flames have appeared to fall into the same trap that most Canadian teams do. They get over excited at signs of progression and tend to jump the gun trying to accelerate the rebuild.

They parted with really good assets to land Dougie Hamilton, although at least they did it when the value of those was 100% certain. At the end of the day, it's a good trade, but I personally don't know if that move launched the team as far forward as they thought.

In the case of the Hamonic deal, they traded futures with undetermined value for right now help. Today this deal has not worked out. Maybe not so much because of Hamonic, but more from the larger picture perspective that the team didn't progress on ice, and not is without the future building blocks to allow it to progress.

The team realistically had one year of "rebuild", than overachieved to get to the playoffs, and has approached each coming season with a go for it mentality. When the on ice results really did not indicate that the team was ready for that mentality.

If the management did try and fast forward, they should have hired a more experienced coach with a winning pedigree.

[Cube Inmate]

Treliving's biggest strength is his analytical, dispassionate approach to things. Decisions made under pressure are often terrible ones.

It's also his biggest weakness. Right now, with nothing but a 9-game winning streak in play to have a hope at playoffs, there's NO downside to canning GG right now, except for GG's reputation. This would not be a decision made "under pressure" -- because there is none at this point. GG's not coming back...he can't (and won't) earn the right to start another season after repeatedly failing in the most important situations.

Sending him out now does a lot of good. It gives the fans something to look forward to. It gives the players the only possible jolt that could make them win a few more games and save their (sold) lottery pick from becoming a 1st overall. It gives Tre the freedom to talk to replacements as soon as they come available -- instead of wasting time on "the process" of evaluating his current situation.

So frigging frustrating to watch this slow-motion death with no rescue in sight.