The impossible task, coaching and expectations

[The Fonz]

nvm

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I meant statistical drivers. But nice rant.
Not sure why people have to argue on the extremes. I've not suggested that advanced stats are the absolute truth. They are yet another input and source of information to try and understand what is happening or not happening with a team.

They shouldn't be used as the only source of truth. Just like the eye test shouldn't. Or standings. It is all just another input.

So I don't know why folks have to just try to throw it all out.

Actually, the standings are the only source of truth. Because the standings aren't an input. They are an output. They are the result, and results are what matters.

We have a coach in Gulutzan who fails the eye test badly, but passes the advanced stats test. The latter input has not translated to success under this coach. Not once in four seasons as a head coach.

[Stanley]

I just want a coach that looks as gangsta as Quenneville behind the bench

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They had 99 points in 14/15 and were hailed as an up and coming power.

Then they completely under performed for two seasons under Maurice.

Finishing with 78 points and 87 points and putting a big chunk of the blame on goaltending.

Now they finally took the step that people thought they would take in 15/16 in 17/18.

So yeah it wasn't like drafting Laine was the signal of some big rebuild - it was more a season of extreme disappointment. You could easily argue that the biggest mistake the Flames made this year isn't on Gulutzan but is actually on Treliving for giving up the assets he did to acquire Hamonic.

It's a reality that the Flames don't have a foolproof roster.
The Jets currently do.
There are however very good teams in a playoff spot without a footproof roster because their coach does get more out of the roster.

Treliving did make the "biggest" mistake this year by acquiring Hamonic. But that doesn't mean underperforming should be acceptable. We do not have plug n play scorers like Patrik Laine, Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers en route. We do have good players being misutilized. Even the three Blackhawks teams that won it all were not "foolproof" rosters. The 2010 Blackhawks had brutal goaltending. The 2013 Blackhawks had some serious holes down the middle. The 2014-15 Blackhawks arguably had a worse roster than we do right now.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Stanley

I just want a coach that looks as gangsta as Quenneville behind the bench

GG looks 20's gangsta

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I meant statistical drivers. But nice rant.
Not sure why people have to argue on the extremes. I've not suggested that advanced stats are the absolute truth. They are yet another input and source of information to try and understand what is happening or not happening with a team.

They shouldn't be used as the only source of truth. Just like the eye test shouldn't. Or standings. It is all just another input.

So I don't know why folks have to just try to throw it all out.

The standings are all that matters. It's the reason they play 82 games with a 16 team cut-off for the playoffs. Advanced stats, video, regular stats are the information used to access just how teams got to where they are at in the standings but at the end of the day you are what the standings say you are.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

They had 99 points in 14/15 and were hailed as an up and coming power.

Then they completely under performed for two seasons under Maurice.

Finishing with 78 points and 87 points and putting a big chunk of the blame on goaltending.

Now they finally took the step that people thought they would take in 15/16 in 17/18.

So yeah it wasn't like drafting Laine was the signal of some big rebuild - it was more a season of extreme disappointment. You could easily argue that the biggest mistake the Flames made this year isn't on Gulutzan but is actually on Treliving for giving up the assets he did to acquire Hamonic.

Originally Posted by nik-

Good for Winnipeg.

Their story doesn't really change ours. Teams are different.

And I don't disagree with the last statement. The majority of this is on Treliving. He got sold on a mediocre coach and a mediocre roster and pissed away way too many assets.

Did the jets trade a bunch of draft picks for warm bodies to get them there, or did they wait patiently, accurately assess where they were at and reap the appropriate benefits when their patience was rewarded?

Tough to say.

Oh right, they dealt away andrew ladd for a 1st round draft pick

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's sports though, results aren't just another input, which is basically what he's saying, they're the reason a team is put on the ice. They're the reason the GM trades assets to make a push.

I'm sorry, that's an insane statement.

If you ignore the point I was trying to make then yes it is insane
If you are trying to assess what is wrong with a team and why then yes standings are an input.
But indeed they are also the most important output. Wasn't suggesting otherwise.

But if you are going to use the standings to say. Flames are x in the conference therefore we can conclude the coach is bad. Or the roster is bad. Or whatever. Then no - it isn't the only source of truth.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It is just an input if determining someone is a success or not. Can't tell me there haven't been times at your workplace where you felt like you did everything right but the end outcome wasn't what you wanted. Process vs. Results.

Some people value the process and understand that sometimes you can do everything right, hit all the key "deliverable", and not get the outcome that you wanted.

Some people only look at the end outcome to determine if something was a success or not.

If you would have not shown me the standings but told me before the season started that:

- Gaudreau would be top 10 in scoring
- Monahan would score 30
- Ferland would score 20
- Tkachuk would show continued growth (25 goals / 50 points)
- Hamilton would lead the league in d-man goals
- Smith acquisition was relatively a success
- Flames would have the 2nd best road record in the league
- Flames were a top 5 team by both Corsi and Scoring Chance metrics (regardless of how much value you put in those stats being top 5 is a good thing)

I would have taken that in a heart beat and thought that they were a top 5-10 team in the league easily.

But somehow all those statements are true and we still sit outside a playoff picture. The outcome doesn't always add up to all the inputs.

Thank you for explaining that better than I did.

[savardandjokinen]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It is just an input if determining someone is a success or not. Can't tell me there haven't been times at your workplace where you felt like you did everything right but the end outcome wasn't what you wanted. Process vs. Results.

Some people value the process and understand that sometimes you can do everything right, hit all the key "deliverable", and not get the outcome that you wanted.

Some people only look at the end outcome to determine if something was a success or not.

If you would have not shown me the standings but told me before the season started that:

- Gaudreau would be top 10 in scoring
- Monahan would score 30
- Ferland would score 20
- Tkachuk would show continued growth (25 goals / 50 points)
- Hamilton would lead the league in d-man goals
- Smith acquisition was relatively a success
- Flames would have the 2nd best road record in the league
- Flames were a top 5 team by both Corsi and Scoring Chance metrics (regardless of how much value you put in those stats being top 5 is a good thing)

I would have taken that in a heart beat and thought that they were a top 5-10 team in the league easily.

But somehow all those statements are true and we still sit outside a playoff picture. The outcome doesn't always add up to all the inputs.

I agree with everything in this post

I would've also included that we've had our best backup goaltending in a while (I know Rittich had a rough stretch there, but that's because he was in a starting role. When he plays his role which is a backup he's been excellent)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

If you ignore the point I was trying to make then yes it is insane
If you are trying to assess what is wrong with a team and why then yes standings are an input.
But indeed they are also the most important output. Wasn't suggesting otherwise.

But if you are going to use the standings to say. Flames are x in the conference therefore we can conclude the coach is bad. Or the roster is bad. Or whatever. Then no - it isn't the only source of truth.

I respect your opinion Jiri. You are pretty even keel. Lets say the Flames keep the coach, sign Evander Kane and maybe find an affordable replacement for Stajan. Based on the last two seasons which have been very similar with the slow starts, below .500 in regulation with some winning streaks mixed in. How confident that next season would be different? Keep in mind this team has been largely injury free to key players for the last couple of seasons and may be due for a bad one. You really have a lot of faith that this guy could take the team to a higher level or even keep the team afloat in the case of adversity such as major injuries? To me that's a big leap of faith.

[iamca]

It's intolerable that their home record is so poor, it's not bad it's awful and not indicative of a playoff bound team.

Their powerplay stats are horrible for the year.

Those 2 things and now not being able to win games against inferior teams in the standings equates to missing the playoffs, which gives them no chance of winning jack $hit!

Mediocrity is accepted despite all the moves, they also lack depth in scoring and cannot play a physical game... don't kid ourselves on this, they can't.

So in the end, what is this team's identity?

Done thinking about it? They really don't have one. It takes all 23 players (and more) to sacrifice throughout the year just to make it to the playoffs when the real work begins and it has not happened.

Is the coaching sub par, it may be up for debate by some, but I think so (see comments regarding the powerplay), team defense, stupid and untimely penalties, and the list goes on...

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I respect your opinion Jiri. You are pretty even keel. Lets say the Flames keep the coach, sign Evander Kane and maybe find an affordable replacement for Stajan. Based on the last two seasons which have been very similar with the slow starts, below .500 in regulation with some winning streaks mixed in. How confident that next season would be different? Keep in mind this team has been largely injury free to key players for the last couple of seasons and may be due for a bad one. You really have a lot of faith that this guy could take the team to a higher level or even keep the team afloat in the case of adversity such as major injuries? To me that's a big leap of faith.

But again I’ve said a few times that I probably would change the coach but I don’t view that that alone would solve things
I’ve never said gg should be back next season

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I meant statistical drivers. But nice rant.
Not sure why people have to argue on the extremes. I've not suggested that advanced stats are the absolute truth. They are yet another input and source of information to try and understand what is happening or not happening with a team.

They shouldn't be used as the only source of truth. Just like the eye test shouldn't. Or standings. It is all just another input.

So I don't know why folks have to just try to throw it all out.

Do you know why? Because advanced stats are complete garbage. They make zero sense, because they are unrelated events, and show zero validity toward proving anything. I swear, every single one of you advanced stats supporters need to take an actual advanced stats course to get a grip on how just how little value these advanced stats mean absolutely nothing. These stats don't pass the sniff test let alone the actual consistency and validity tests you subject actual studies to. This garbage is flat earth pseudoscience trash where the dreamed up science behind the argument draws nothing but eye rolls from actual scientists/statisticians who use statistical analysis to prove/disprove theory. The reason they get thrown out is because there is ZERO support to any of the claims these crap stats suggest, and longitudinal studies completely crush this pseudoscience garbage. But hey, continue to spin more fantastical pseudo-stats that prove nothing and fail under the examination of longitudinal study.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

Do you know why? Because advanced stats are complete garbage. They make zero sense, because they are unrelated events, and show zero validity toward proving anything. I swear, every single one of you advanced stats supporters need to take an actual advanced stats course to get a grip on how just how little value these advanced stats mean absolutely nothing. These stats don't pass the sniff test let alone the actual consistency and validity tests you subject actual studies to. This garbage is flat earth pseudoscience trash where the dreamed up science behind the argument draws nothing but eye rolls from actual scientists/statisticians who use statistical analysis to prove/disprove theory. The reason they get thrown out is because there is ZERO support to any of the claims these crap stats suggest, and longitudinal studies completely crush this pseudoscience garbage. But hey, continue to spin more fantastical pseudo-stats that prove nothing and fail under the examination of longitudinal study.

Your choice.
Others see value in them.
As is their choice.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

But again I’ve said a few times that I probably would change the coach but I don’t view that that alone would solve things
I’ve never said gg should be back next season

This. Even if in your heart you believe GG is an excellent coach, it's just a helluva risk especially if some accomplished coaches happen to be looking for work.

Imagine if you start the season 5-10-2 or something like that.

It would take some big brass balls to keep GG around, and some very, very vocal support from guys you consider to be leaders of the team.

Changing the coach and little else basically means you think you need a fresh look at these players under a different environment. I guess I could live with that but I would have low expectations for the season.