Sam Bennett '17/'18 - 5v5 linemates/production (WARNING: Silly Sample Size)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DazzlinDino

From what I can recall, Hartley believed it was important to let young skilled players play. I would like to see how Sam Bennett and that line would do if he was given an extended period of time on that line. Maybe GG and co have a different strategy for Sam or feel the top line needs a heavy weight; However when Johnny and Monahan played with, Jiri Hudler they were dynamic and unstoppable at times. Should Sam Bennett be given an opportunity to unleash his and develop talent on the top line or is he being groomed to be a 200 foot player on a secondary line?

I would like to see Sam Bennett be given a fair chance to run with it on the top line on his current contract.

Sven might disagree.

Him aside, Hartley started both Johnny and Monahan in sheltered roles, off the top line. Now, Sam isn't a rookie any more, but at the same time, Hartley was in development mode - GG is in win mode.

Right now they are trying to find a fit for Bennett, because their plans for what he was going to be (a top centre) aren't panning out.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

So, admittedly a tiny sample, but his p/60 with Johnny and Monahan is about 2.26? If that's what it would actually be over the course of a longer period, that would be pretty damned good.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

For me it is the eye test that tells me Bennett needs to stay on the top line. That trio seems to spend most of their shift in the offensive zone and Bennett does a great job along the boards retrieving pucks and winning board battles. He also seems more energized too. I think he is the best fit there

I know it’s been discussed elsewhere but one of his absolute best skills and the main thing that separates him from ferland in my eyes is his skill along the boards

[kyuss275]

Great work , fun read . My question to you is did you do this at work? And if so, are you guys hiring?

[Mathgod]

Maybe we should swap usernames.

[EVERLAST]

I don't know where to look and didnt seen it mentioned but I thought steeger and Bennett had some good chemistry and it makes me wonder how much this has changed things for Sam?
Am I alone in remembering it this way?

[Flamenfame]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Biggest difference is that Yakupov was playing with Hall, McDavid, RNH, etc in a top 6 role for the majority of his time and the only thing he brought to the table was offense.

Bennett is more well rounded and can produce at ES in a 3rd line role with Jankowski, Hathaway, Brouwer, Lazar etc as linemates.

That is a big difference. Sometimes total points don't tell the whole story.

But by all means the Flames should trade him for a back of pucks, and label him a bust because who needs the 5th most productive player at ES on the team.

Yakupov played most of his career in Edm on 3rd and 4th line and under 13 min a game He played a very small stretch with McDavid . Easy to look up

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flamenfame

Yakupov played most of his career in Edm on 3rd and 4th line and under 13 min a game He played a very small stretch with McDavid . Easy to look up

In his last season in Edmonton Yakupov played 200 minutes with McDavid and 500 without McDavid at 5v5.

In the 200 minutes with McDavid he was on the ice for 13 GF, and 11 GA.

In the 500 minutes without McDavid he was on the ice for 11 GF, and 23 GA.

So 54% of the goals he was on the ice for 5v5 came with McDavid, even though he only played 28% of his ice time with McDavid.

As you mentioned easy to look up.

Compare that to Bennett this season.

He has played 70 minutes with our best forward (Gaudreau), and 654 minutes without. So he has played ~10% of his total ice time with Gaudreau, and 12.5% of the goals he has been on the ice for have been with Gaudreau. A slight bump vs expected but not nearly the lift Yakupov's production got with McDavid.

Compare those two and then you'll see why what Bennett is doing is different than what Yakupov did.

[Badgers Nose]

Really good thread

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

To top up he's actually not nearly as bad as ppl would like to think at 5v5 when you look at the Point per 60 metric that normalizes for ice time.

Gaudreau - 2.72
Monahan - 2.46
Ferland - 2.16
Tkachuk - 1.75
Bennett - 1.66
Backlund - 1.5
Hathaway - 1.43
Jankowski - 1.36
Frolik - 1.29

5th on the team behind only the first line and Tkachuk. Better than the rest of our top 9.

In other words, normalized and 5v5 Bennett is exactly what most of us thought; slightly less productive than Tkatchuk and comparable with some of the players people here wanted to trade him for (Hoffman).

The experiment was to see if Bennett could carry a line on his own, and elevate lesser players to provide a third scoring line. That did not work, but no need to sell him cheap.

[Flamenfame]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

In his last season in Edmonton Yakupov played 200 minutes with McDavid and 500 without McDavid at 5v5.

In the 200 minutes with he was on the ice for 13 GF, and 11 GA.

In the 500 minutes without he was on the ice for 11 GF, and 23 GA.

So 54% of the goals he was on the ice for 5v5 came with McDavid, even though he only played 28% of his ice time with McDavid.

As you mentioned easy to look up.

These were the most minutes played with Centers in Edmonton in his career there
Gagner 596 min Derek Roy 534 Hopkins 426 Arcobello 296 Letestu 215 He played majority of Min 3rd line or 4th

[EVERLAST]

So in all seriousness are peoples expectations that Bennett "should be" able to drive his own line or is it okay that a young developing player isn't able to do that yet?

It's been discussed allot this year that a guy like Tkachuk can likely drive his own line and maybe the same could be said for Jankowski but it's early.
Being a complimentary player cannot be that bad a thing can it?

I've watched our best lines over the years going back to Roberts, Loob and Niewendyk and have always been curious about chemistry when we see guys with different skills , tendencies etc and no line made me go wow like that line did.

I like seeing what Sean and Johnny can do with just about anyone and then same applies for Frolik and Backlund.

Anyway, great discussion today guys ....awesome.

[The Boy Wonder]

Originally Posted by Flamenfame

These were the most minutes played with Centers in Edmonton in his career there
Gagner 596 min Derek Roy 534 Hopkins 426 Arcobello 296 Letestu 215 He played majority of Min 3rd line or 4th

But what are you arguing? That Bennett is comparable to yakupov or that we should be glad he’s better than yakupov?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flamenfame

These were the most minutes played with Centers in Edmonton in his career there
Gagner 596 min Derek Roy 534 Hopkins 426 Arcobello 296 Letestu 215 He played majority of Min 3rd line or 4th

That's fair - so I was wrong about his ice time with Hall and RNH but doesn't necessarily mean he didn't have decent linemates still.

Top 3 Forward Linemates Each Season

12/13 - Gagner isn't great but still averaged 40 points a year in Edmonton
Gagner: 274 minutes
Pajaarvi: 145 minutes
Hemsky: 141 minutes

13/14 - Playing with some combo of Gagner, Eberle, and Perron is pretty good
Gagner: 313 minutes
Eberle: 188 minutes
Perron: 170 minutes

14/15- This season is ugly. The guys he played with are bad.
Roy: 527 minutes
Purcell: 404 minutes
Arcobello: 190 minutes

15/16 - Not the best but as posted before most of his production came in the time with McDavid.
Letestu: 244 minutes
McDavid: 200 minutes
Pouliot: 200 minutes

So overall not getting Hall and RNH but okay linemates outside of that 3rd season.

Compare those players to Bennetts linemates, specifically these last two seasons.

15/16 - Good line that produced quite well when together. Pretty much a 20/20 rookie season.
Frolik - 357 minutes
Backlund - 349 minutes
Granlund - 174 minutes

16/17: Ugly two guys that were pretty much cast offs, and Troy Brouwer.
Chiasson-412 minutes
Versteeg-409 minutes
Brouwer- 377 minutes

17/18: Still not pretty two AHL call up rookies, and then injured Jagr on his last legs.
Jankowski: 511 minutes
Hathaway:254 minutes
Jagr: 135 minutes

And even then these last two seasons have seen him finish okay when it comes to ES production.

Big improvements YoY as well.

16/17
20 ES points in 81 games - 1.22 points per 60

17/18
20 ES points in 64 games - 1.66 points per 60

Sure he hasn't lived up to expectations as a 4th overall pick. So you can write him off and call him a bust, compare him to Yakupov all you want but I see a guy who has taken a big step this year. Especially bouncing back after a horrendous start, and moving to a position on the wing that suited him better.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

So in all seriousness are peoples expectations that Bennett "should be" able to drive his own line or is it okay that a young developing player isn't able to do that yet?

My expectation is that Bennett should be and is able to drive play well enough to where linemates of a certain competency level experience a general improvement in their performance. There is no such thing as exclusively driving a line unless you're a freak of nature like Mario Lemieux, Evgeni Malkin, or Connor McDavid.

He has been a so-called driver of the Jankowski line all year, and he was as much the driver of the Versteeg-Bennett-Chiasson line in last year's playoffs as Versteeg, and I have so much belief that he would be a driver on a Tkachuk-Bennett-X type second line. It's not as if Bergeron is the only driver on his line. Monahan is hardly the driver of his line. Who is the driver on the 3M Line, Tkachuk or Backlund? It's really more than one guy - because driving play is a thing but driving a line is a myth.

There are plenty of metrics that show Bennett does things that are indicative of driving play, whether it's having some of the best takeaway rates on this team along with Backlund, to being one of our better zone entry players, to being one of our most productive 5v5 players period despite playing on essentially his own line.

On the flip side Bennett, or any NHLer, should not be expected to drag nobodies like Bartkowski and many of his wingers and still produce. That is wholely unrealistic when you have to play with defensemen or wingers who are actual anchors at the NHL level. So much of this game is about forechecking, which isn't even about having the puck, and if your wingers can't forecheck you are honestly hooped. I think this is why a lot of the fanbase still can't get over the loss of Byron - he was/is a supreme forechecker. Better forechecking linemates = less penalties too, because you're spending more time in better position than trying to get the puck back.

It's been discussed allot this year that a guy like Tkachuk can likely drive his own line and maybe the same could be said for Jankowski but it's early.

Neither of these players drive a line, though. Tkachuk plays with arguably the best two-way driver of play on this roster, and Jankowski hasn't looked as strong as Bennett in any regards - I say that as a big supporter of Janko - honestly I would be tempted to swap Bennett and Jankowski as centers because Bennett is stronger on the defensive side of the red line.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

My expectation is that Bennett should be and is able to drive play well enough to where linemates of a certain competency level experience a general improvement in their performance. There is no such thing as exclusively driving a line unless you're a freak of nature like Mario Lemieux, Evgeni Malkin, or Connor McDavid.

He has been a so-called driver of the Jankowski line all year, and he was as much the driver of the Versteeg-Bennett-Chiasson line in last year's playoffs as Versteeg, and I have so much belief that he would be a driver on a Tkachuk-Bennett-X type second line. It's not as if Bergeron is the only driver on his line. Monahan is hardly the driver of his line. Who is the driver on the 3M Line, Tkachuk or Backlund? It's really more than one guy - because driving play is a thing but driving a line is a myth.

There are plenty of metrics that show Bennett does things that are indicative of driving play, whether it's having some of the best takeaway rates on this team along with Backlund, to being one of our better zone entry players, to being one of our most productive 5v5 players period despite playing on essentially his own line.

On the flip side Bennett, or any NHLer, should not be expected to drag nobodies like Bartkowski and many of his wingers and still produce. That is wholely unrealistic when you have to play with defensemen or wingers who are actual anchors at the NHL level. So much of this game is about forechecking, which isn't even about having the puck, and if your wingers can't forecheck you are honestly hooped. I think this is why a lot of the fanbase still can't get over the loss of Byron - he was/is a supreme forechecker. Better forechecking linemates = less penalties too, because you're spending more time in better position than trying to get the puck back.



Neither of these players drive a line, though. Tkachuk plays with arguably the best two-way driver of play on this roster, and Jankowski hasn't looked as strong as Bennett in any regards - I say that as a big supporter of Janko - honestly I would be tempted to swap Bennett and Jankowski as centers because Bennett is stronger on the defensive side of the red line.

I would be hesitant to move Bennett back to center though. It could just be that he has better linemates when he is on the wing but I think he is actually is just more comfortable at playing wing than center in the NHL.

Hard to fully figure out when he played center vs not but if you compare his numbers when on the ice with at least one of Backlund, Monahan, Stajan, Jankowski (the other full time centers in his time here) vs without it's actually a pretty big gap in performance.

15/16

Bennett as a center: CF%-47.6 GF:18 GA:26 ~539 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-51.7 GF:17 GA:10 ~400 minutes

16/17

Bennett as a center: CF%-47.9% GF:21 GA:33 ~788 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-51.9% GF:6 GA:11 ~160 minutes

17/18

Bennett as a center: CF%-41.8 GF:2 GA:4 ~115 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-52.1 GF:22 GA:21 ~610 minutes

Him and Jankowski especially have had a lot of confidence this year and in some ways that line has been unlucky to not produce more.

Those two together have a CF% of 51.1%, a High Danger chance percentage of 57.4%, but have a horrible on ice shooting percentage of 6.87% which is a bit unlucky since league average is closer to 8%. (Although some of that may be due to Bennett not having a great shot - and missing the net 31% of the time as per that thread bingo posted.)

At this point winger Sam Bennett appears to be a much better player than Center Sam Bennett.

[Geeoff]

I wish I could be this optimistic about Sam Bennett. I hope he proves you right!

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's pretty pissy.

The guy was above board honest about sample sizes but digging into something interesting.

If you don't buy it, don't ... but that was a poor response.

I already knew my response is not going to go well with people who view Bennett as THE ONE who will bring the Flames Franchise from the ashes. But I don't see why his potential needs to be sugar-coated at all times and we need to compare him with Ferland or Monahan or someone who is outperforming him in every sense every year. I'm just putting my 2-cents as it is and I don't sugar-coat some crap to make it taste sweet. If Bennett's name wasn't Bennett and his age is maybe one or two years older and he plays exactly the same way Bennett has played since being a Flames, I bet you a lot of you will be saying the same thing I would be saying.

When I look at a player, for example, Monahan - he's producing consistently every year. Sure, there are times where he's snake bitten and isn't playing well. But you and I know he'll lead the team with goals every year. Look at Gaudreau, do we need to compare him with anyone else? The guy has skills and lives up to his potential every year. Ferland, he's been improving every year and has truculence that the Flames wanted and needed, yet a bunch of you need to compare him to Bennett when the guy has 20 frickin goals this year.

Sure, if Bennett starts to live up to his potential every year, then I'll start to cheer for him like I did when he score that four-goal game. It's kind of far and few between that he does show something and it's not enough for me to say this guy is the Flames best ever draft pick. I really don't give a rats arse if he's the Flames highest drafted player. All I know is that the Flames have drafted some pretty good players in the top two lines that's not Bennett and they all way better than him and they're drafted lower than him.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by CSharp

I already knew my response is not going to go well with people who view Bennett as THE ONE who will bring the Flames Franchise from the ashes.

Show us any such person, and we'll see whether your response went well with them. I have never encountered anyone of that description, on CP or off it.

The rest of us don't like the fact that you are belligerently pointing out something that was explicitly admitted in the OP, as if that invalidated everything the OP had to say.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by CSharp

I already knew my response is not going to go well with people who view Bennett as THE ONE who will bring the Flames Franchise from the ashes. But I don't see why his potential needs to be sugar-coated at all times and we need to compare him with Ferland or Monahan or someone who is outperforming him in every sense every year. I'm just putting my 2-cents as it is and I don't sugar-coat some crap to make it taste sweet. If Bennett's name wasn't Bennett and his age is maybe one or two years older and he plays exactly the same way Bennett has played since being a Flames, I bet you a lot of you will be saying the same thing I would be saying.

When I look at a player, for example, Monahan - he's producing consistently every year. Sure, there are times where he's snake bitten and isn't playing well. But you and I know he'll lead the team with goals every year. Look at Gaudreau, do we need to compare him with anyone else? The guy has skills and lives up to his potential every year. Ferland, he's been improving every year and has truculence that the Flames wanted and needed, yet a bunch of you need to compare him to Bennett when the guy has 20 frickin goals this year.

Sure, if Bennett starts to live up to his potential every year, then I'll start to cheer for him like I did when he score that four-goal game. It's kind of far and few between that he does show something and it's not enough for me to say this guy is the Flames best ever draft pick. I really don't give a rats arse if he's the Flames highest drafted player. All I know is that the Flames have drafted some pretty good players in the top two lines that's not Bennett and they all way better than him and they're drafted lower than him.

But in all your analysis you fail to give credence to the fact that all of "improving players" are playing with other top end players. Bennett has been placed on the third line and has been strapped to a Brouwer or with two other rookies to drag around the ice.

You don't need to hail him the franchise savior. But to write him off and deny him your "cheer" is short sighted.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I would be hesitant to move Bennett back to center though..

I wouldn't hesitate. He's an overall excellent center IMO. I think Gulutzan sees it in the tape too, which is why it was Bennett, not Jankowski, who was slotted between Ferland and Gaudreau when Monahan was sick.

Linemates are a serious issue at center. He's never had them. He had Versteeg last year but that was offset by Brouwer. Versteeg-Bennett-Chiasson had strong possession metrics over a decent sample size, you can look it up if you like, so it's pretty clear that Bennett was not the problem. This season, Bartkowski was another issue when Bennett played center, because the Bart-Stone pairing was a disaster and a half. In fact, Bennett has only played ten games at center this season, and Bartkowski has played in eight of them.

It could just be that he has better linemates when he is on the wing but I think he is actually is just more comfortable at playing wing than center in the NHL.

I don't think that at all. Gulutzan doesn't think that either from what I've gleaned. There was an interview where he actually went off on the media for suggesting his improved play had anything to do with positions.

Hard to fully figure out when he played center vs not but if you compare his numbers when on the ice with at least one of Backlund, Monahan, Stajan, Jankowski (the other full time centers in his time here) vs without it's actually a pretty big gap in performance.

15/16

Bennett as a center: CF%-47.6 GF:18 GA:26 ~539 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-51.7 GF:17 GA:10 ~400 minutes

I'm skeptical of this stat. He spent most of that year either on Backlund's wing or Granlund's wing. I'd wager he spent about 2/3rds of that season on the wing, including his least productive stretch.

Here is a breakdown of lines he played at least fifteen minutes with on Hartley's blender:



Bennett-Jooris-Ferland or Ferland-Bennett-Jooris - I'm surprised this line didn't work out since this is the kind of line I would have actually had faith in. I'm curious who was centering.
Gaudreau-Monahan-Bennett - our current top line was actually terrible in their first go around together. Even though Bennett was on the wing. Not sure if he was on RW and if that matters.
Hudler-Backlund-Bennett - That was the line combos for the game Bennett scored four.
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik - of course this was a good line.
Colborne-Bennett-Ferland - this was a really good third line, but Ferland was snakebit that year.
Raymond-Bennett-Frolik. That was our third line to start the year and they had one of my favorite Bennett plays.
Bouma-Bennett-Colborne - 52% possession player Lance Bouma
Gaudreau-Bennett-Jones - 62% possession player David Jones
Gaudreau-Bennett-Frolik - That was our first line for about two weeks early in the season before Frolik got glued to Backlund. It was amazing to the eye test too under Hartley's system. They were everywhere and a half. I was sure Bennett was gonna be a star, he was producing at over a point a game during those two weeks too.

16/17

Bennett as a center: CF%-47.9% GF:21 GA:33 ~788 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-51.9% GF:6 GA:11 ~160 minutes

Here are the four lines Bennett logged 70+ minutes with:

204.25 - Versteeg-Bennett-Brouwer - 44.6% CF, 44.02% FF, and 38.54% xGF
130.45 - Gaudreau-Bennett-Chiasson - 48.39% CF, 50.94% FF, 60.23% xGF
118.83 - Versteeg-Bennett-Chiasson - 59.78% CF, 55.71% FF, and 48.09% xGF
73.03 - Bennett-Stajan-CHiasson - 46.55% CF, 49.44% FF, and 50.55% xGF

Draw (or don't) whatever conclusions you would like to, but two of these lines are over the 55% mark in one of these shot-metric stats, and Bennett centered them both. Bennett did mediocre as Stajan's LWer. The Brouwer line is the one line that stands out as uniformly awful.

17/18

Bennett as a center: CF%-41.8 GF:2 GA:4 ~115 minutes
Bennett as a winger: CF%-52.1 GF:22 GA:21 ~610 minutes

Him and Jankowski especially have had a lot of confidence this year and in some ways that line has been unlucky to not produce more.

I agree that Bennett-Jankowski is a great player pair. I disagree that this has much if anything to do with playing center, and in fact I think Jankowski has botched his share of defensive play as he is a more passive player than Bennett is as a centerman. Not to take away from Jankowski, but I think the team benefited from Bennett's excellent shot suppression ability as a center last year, which is neutralized on the wing this year.