[Game Takes] Bolts 7 Flames 4

[Bingo]

Bolts 7 Flames 4

- Mike Smith gives up iffy goals for Tampa's 3rd, 4th and 5th of the night
- Fourth line was on it tonight for the Flames
- powerplay goal!
- Skid continues

[DeluxeMoustache]

Ouch. No lead is safe

[Brick]

Mike Smith has given up too many iffy goals at home this season.
He gives up 1 more goal a game at home.
He has been better on the road but only average at home.
For the Flames to make the playoffs they need better goaltending at home and they're not getting it.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Brick

Mike Smith has given up too many iffy goals at home this season.
He gives up 1 more goal a game at home.
He has been better on the road but only average at home.
For the Flames to make the playoffs they need better goaltending at home and they're not getting it.

This is true, but like the team I'm not sure it's a thing as much as a very strange trend.

You could also argue he's been "too good" on the road as a 96% save percentage is a little lofty.

[edslunch]

A few years ago 'Advanced Stats' were derided on this board, but now are widely used - Game Takes being full of them for example. Is it possible the pendulum has swung too far the other way and we are overlooking intangibles - 'heart', 'resiliency', 'emotion', 'killer instinct', 'talent', etc. - as originally argued? This team may have good underlying numbers but inspires no confidence.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Brick

Mike Smith has given up too many iffy goals at home this season.
He gives up 1 more goal a game at home.
He has been better on the road but only average at home.
For the Flames to make the playoffs they need better goaltending at home and they're not getting it.

I don't know the specific stats for game performance at home vs on the road but from watching the games this team is certainly weaker at home. I would probably want to look into the pre game prep for home games to see what the problems are. I'm assuming the coaching staff just isn't getting the players into the right head space when at home. Luckily for the Flames they only have 13 more home games this season so if the road trends continue they still have a fighting chances of getting a playoff spot.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by edslunch

A few years ago 'Advanced Stats' were derided on this board, but now are widely used - Game Takes being full of them for example. Is it possible the pendulum has swung too far the other way and we are overlooking intangibles - 'heart', 'resiliency', 'emotion', 'killer instinct', 'talent', etc. - as originally argued? This team may have good underlying numbers but inspires no confidence.

If things like "heart", resiliency", "emotion", "killer instinct", "talent" etc. really matter (and they surely do,), they should result in better "advanced stats".

And if they don't, they likely don't matter very much.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I don't know the specific stats for game performance at home vs on the road but from watching the games this team is certainly weaker at home. I would probably want to look into the pre game prep for home games to see what the problems are. I'm assuming the coaching staff just isn't getting the players into the right head space when at home. Luckily for the Flames they only have 13 more home games this season so if the road trends continue they still have a fighting chances of getting a playoff spot.

At home

SV% 92.37 (24th)
HDSV% 76.34 (28th)
MDSV% 93.42 (8th)
LDSV% 96.61 (31st)

Away

SV% 94.88 (3rd)
HDSV% 84.81 (7th)
MDSV% 95.59 (3rd)
LDSV% 98.46 (7th)

Differentials

SV% -2.51 (3rd worst home/road diff)
HDSV% -8.47 (5th)
MDSV% -2.17 (10th)
LDSV% -1.85 (5th)

Having trouble with the easy ones on home ice.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by edslunch

A few years ago 'Advanced Stats' were derided on this board, but now are widely used - Game Takes being full of them for example. Is it possible the pendulum has swung too far the other way and we are overlooking intangibles - 'heart', 'resiliency', 'emotion', 'killer instinct', 'talent', etc. - as originally argued? This team may have good underlying numbers but inspires no confidence.

I think you still have to pair the metrics with the eye test. Both have validity to me - and when they are not in alignment I think it is good to question if the stats are misleading or if the eye test is off the mark.
I think in an individual game the advanced metrics don't tell the whole story often, but over the long-term they paint a picture that is pretty convincing.
But every year we see a team or two buck the trend - the so-called lucky or unlucky teams. And I think that's the nature of the game of hockey which perhaps has a higher degree of randomness than something like baseball.

That's my take on it anyways.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If things like "heart", resiliency", "emotion", "killer instinct", "talent" etc. really matter (and they surely do,), they should result in better "advanced stats".

And if they don't, they likely don't matter very much.

No, they would result in more winning. Calgary is 4th in the league in CF% (the oilers are 3rd!) yet with 18th in league standings.