Francis: Backlund contract talks heating up. Ask is around $5 mil x 5 or 6 years

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Beninho

It’s almost like points don’t tell the full story and some people use their eyes to judge players. Has Backlund been as good defensively as last year? Yes or no?

Ya pretty well. And arguably better offensively seeing as he’s put up the same numbers while having a significantly lower shooting percentage. I also use my eyes to judge players and your judgement makes no sense, by both the eye test and by statistical test.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Ya pretty well. And arguably better offensively seeing as he’s put up the same numbers while having a significantly lower shooting percentage. I also use my eyes to judge players and your judgement makes no sense, by both the eye test and by statistical test.

Backlund had a point to prove last year defensively and dominated the opposition on many nights. There is no way you can say that he’s been the same this year, he has not been bad but he’s been no where near his level of last year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Poe969

...And over the last 2 years he was better than .6 points per game but the rest of the years he's about a .4 point per game player. You can't really just pick the years you want to take an average of. He hit his offensive peak last year, the year before that was even a bit high for him. He's a .5 point per game player over his career.

But for many players a career average is not an accurate representation of where they are at at one specific point in their career. Older players like Joe Thornton and the Sedins have career-average production at or close to a point/game, and there is no one who expects any of these players to get near 70 points this season. For a player like Backlund who took a long time breaking in to the NHL and who is presently only 28-years-old it seems patently obvious that his last two years' production is a better measure from which to project than factoring into the equation his 25-point rookie season as somehow more relevant in the calculation.

Backlund is on pace to score 50 points again this season, and it remains a good bet that he will be in range of that number for at least another year or two.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Backlund had a point to prove last year defensively and dominated the opposition on many nights. There is no way you can say that he’s been the same this year, he has not been bad but he’s been no where near his level of last year.

Well if your only critique of his defensive game is that he’s not being put in as many defensive zone starts as last year and is there fore not having as dominant of a defensive game, then fine but the way he is currently playing is still elite defense and he’s more than worth the 5m deal.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Well if your only critique of his defensive game is that he’s not being put in as many defensive zone starts as last year and is there fore not having as dominant of a defensive game, then fine but the way he is currently playing is still elite defense and he’s more than worth the 5m deal.

I don’t see elite defense this year, last year I did. Being elite defensively requires a level of consistency. I see him being pretty good defensively on some nights and then having some games where he seems unengaged and lazy. Good but no where near elite this year unfourtunatley

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Beninho

I don’t see elite defense this year, last year I did. I see him being pretty good defensively on some nights and then having some games where he seems unengaged and lazy.

This is the substance of your assertion:

"Backlund is not as good defensively this year as he was last year because I said so."

Forgive me for concluding that you don't know what you are talking about.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This is the substance of your assertion:

"Backlund is not as good defensively this year as he was last year because I said so."

Forgive me for concluding that you don't know what you are talking about.

Does he seem to dominate his matchup like he did last season? Has there been no change in his defensive play from this last year to this? I’ve seen a change in level of play from him defensively. Do I think he’s been poor? Absolutely not, but last year I never questioned if Backlund was coasting on some shifts, this year I have. I’m not going to bring up a load of statistics to prove my argument and maybe what my eyes are telling me is incorrect, but to me his level has noticeably dropped from last season.

This is a forum where people give their opinions about players, I’m not saying my view of Backlunds play is definitively correct like you are asserting I am. I am only just giving my opinion about what I am seeing and obviously others have seen similar things.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by Beninho

Does he seem to dominate his matchup like he did last season? Has there been no change in his defensive play from this last year to this? I’ve seen a change in level of play from him defensively. Do I think he’s been poor? Absolutely not, but last year I never questioned if Backlund was coasting on some shifts, this year I have. I’m not going to bring up a load of statistics to prove my argument and maybe what my eyes are telling me is incorrect, but to me his level has noticeably dropped from last season.

This is a forum where people give their opinions about players, I’m not saying my view of Backlunds play is definitively correct like you are asserting I am. I am only just giving my opinion about what I am seeing and obviously others have seen similar things.

Ok well that’s purely your own opinion, however bizarre it seems to me. But you also said his offense has fallen off as well and yet it objectively has not. Point being, you can have whatever opinion you want but don’t be surprised when other posters see it and decide to pick it apart.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Beninho

...This is a forum where people give their opinions about players, I’m not saying my view of Backlunds play is definitively correct like you are asserting I am. I am only just giving my opinion about what I am seeing and obviously others have seen similar things.

The freedom to express your opinion does not insulate you from criticism. Even popular opinions can be bad ones, and in this instance where the numbers that Backlund continues to generate this season do not align with what you and a handful of others are seeing, then chances are high that you are not seeing things clearly.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The freedom to express your opinion does not insulate you from criticism. Even popular opinions can be bad ones, and in this instance where the numbers that Backlund continues to generate this season do not align with what you and a handful of others are seeing, then chances are high that you are not seeing things clearly.

Backlund was +10 and +9 in the last two seasons. This year he's -7. I think it's fair to say he hasn't been as strong defensively this year as he was the last two seasons.

As far as his worth to the team goes, I think Backlund is well-worth 5 million for 5-6 years whether he is having a dip in effectiveness this season or not. We wouldn't be easy to replace and could easily get that money elsewhere.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Ok well that’s purely your own opinion, however bizarre it seems to me. But you also said his offense has fallen off as well and yet it objectively has not. Point being, you can have whatever opinion you want but don’t be surprised when other posters see it and decide to pick it apart.

Just using measurable facts Last year Backlund was a +9 this year he is a -7.

There could be extenuating circumstances... maybe last year he was playing against inferior players ... I personally don't think so.

If you look back over the Selke voting there is seldom anyone in the top 10 that has a negative +/-.

A lot of the justification of the 5M deals are that he is an elite shut down near Selke finalist

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Just using measurable facts Last year Backlund was a +9 this year he is a -7.

There could be extenuating circumstances... maybe last year he was playing against inferior players ... I personally don't think so.

If you look back over the Selke voting there is seldom anyone in the top 10 that has a negative +/-.

A lot of the justification of the 5M deals are that he is an elite shut down near Selke finalist

Sure, you can use a mostly useless stat if you want. His excellent corsi with high defensive zone starts say otherwise. Again, his On ice shooting percentage is down 2.2% which has probably contributed to 10-12 goals not being scored when Backlund was on the ice. That’s the flip in the plus minus right there, and further demonstrates why that stat sucks. Just using measurable facts.

[Flash Walken]

just looking a bit deeper at Backlund, I also agree his performance has declined from last year and the year previous.

Last year at the 50 game mark Backlund was leading the team with 6 powerplay goals to go with 4th on the team at 8 even strenght goals.

This year he is 6th on the team with 2 powerplay goals and and 6th on the team at even strength with 7 even strength goals.

Last year at this time he also had 4 game winners, this year, just a game winner.

Last year he had just 16 minutes in total penalty minutes at the 50 game mark. This year? Leads the Team with 54 minutes in penalties through 50 games. Conversely, Tkachuk lead the flames with 92 (!) PIMs in the first 50 games last year. This year he's cut that in half to just 42 PIMs, good for 5th on the team.

I think it's pretty obvious Backlund isn't having nearly the same year he had last year. The top line is making up for it somewhat, but the Flames are still lacking a second line of offense more now than last year.

The premise for 5 or so million a year is the 23 goal backlund, not the 14 goal backlund.

[Enoch Root]

I too agree taht Backlund has not been as good this year as he was the prior two. And I would imagine that his level of play this year will shave somewhere between and $500k and $1M per year, not to mention a year or two in length, from what his salary might have been had last year been his contract year.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Backlund was +10 and +9 in the last two seasons. This year he's -7. I think it's fair to say he hasn't been as strong defensively this year as he was the last two seasons.

.

I think in isolation that is a very poor conclusion to make without looking at least one stat that actually has value.




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[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Just using measurable facts Last year Backlund was a +9 this year he is a -7.

There could be extenuating circumstances... maybe last year he was playing against inferior players ... I personally don't think so.

If you look back over the Selke voting there is seldom anyone in the top 10 that has a negative +/-.

A lot of the justification of the 5M deals are that he is an elite shut down near Selke finalist

I actually don't think +/- is a poor argument to make when comparing his performance year over year. It's not a perfect stat in the context of his defensive play. But it does state that he's been on the ice for far more goals against than goals for relative to last season.

But with that said, he's still our best overall centermen and he takes a lot of defensive zone draws and does a lot of heavy lifting against the opposition's best lines. I'd sign him for $5M+ and still call it a bargain. Our team would be considerably worse if Monahan or rookie Mark Jankowski was this team's shut down center. Monahan hasn't shown me the ability to be a high end 2 way center yet, so signing Backlund to me as an absolute no brainer.

If Jankowski one day surpasses Backlund then I think there'd still be a trade market for Backlund and we can deal him then. But keep the asset because he's still vital to this team's success and our current window to win.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

Ok well that’s purely your own opinion, however bizarre it seems to me. But you also said his offense has fallen off as well and yet it objectively has not. Point being, you can have whatever opinion you want but don’t be surprised when other posters see it and decide to pick it apart.

Clearly their are others who are seeing the same thing as me. Hopefully Backlund can go on a tear and I will gladly eat crow and say I was being a bit over reactive, I’m not advocating in trading him or not re-signing him but just concerned that to me his level has dropped noticeably on the defensive end compared to last season. I hope he makes me eat my words

[Beninho]

I take all the credit for igniting Backlunds game, no idea he read CP

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Beninho

I take all the credit for igniting Backlund game, no idea he read CP

No no no. Keep criticizing. We want more

[Coach]

Hearing Backlund has signed 5.25 for5 or 6 years