Treliving needs to start feeling the heat

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Well I didn’t necessarily say that, but I don’t disagree with you either. The way this team plays is differently from Hartley, we rely more on our forwards to produce offense instead of out defensemen. Hamonic was very expensive for a slight upgrade over Engelland if even, I’m still not convinced. But there’s no doubt in my mind several forwards on this team need to be upgraded in order fot us to reach the sky high expectations.

Treliving himself said in the summer that he was likely going to lose the most sleep because of the potential that we weren’t going to score enough goals. Well that problem has become reality despite the career years from our top forwards.

Personally I think there’s a lot of blame going around that’s completely unwarranted. From the coaching staff, to the top players, our special teams to an extent and even to the team’s mental fortitude. But I don’t see much blame directed to the real problem, our lack of forward depth.

I agree with this and I think BT knew this was a concern going into the season. But philosophically he believed in building from the goalie out, and that a superior corps of defensemen could overcome lack of forward depth. So maybe part of the problem is a flaw in this philosophy, or that the D are overrated. I think it might be some of both.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

This is ridiculously hyperbolic.

Our depth is perfectly serviceable. It's just that we're a relatively badly coached team, and the depth guys don't have the skill to cover that up.

Much of the point of coaching is getting the most out of what players can do and limiting the harm of what they can't do. This is how you turn a team into more than the sum of it's parts, and this is why the effect of coaching is most often seen in how the depth of the team looks.

When Hartley got the team to the 2nd round, people liked our depth. Go back and look at that roster. It wasn't the quality of players that made our depth look good.

Unless the coaching is truly horrible, stars are going to look good. Skilled players like Gaudreau and Monahan can make even subpar systems work.

Top line and 3M line are obviously legit NHLers. After that you have Bennett and Jankowski, who probably belong to NHL, but are somewhat borderline at this point (I don't want to turn this into Bennett or Jankowski thread, so let's count them in). After that we have guys, who are unable to play at NHL level and their production speaks for itself.

You said that I should go back and look at the depth that Hartley had, so I did. Flames roster for 2015 playoffs was

Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Ferland-Backlund-Jones
Bennett-Stajan-Colbourne
Raymond-Granlund-Jooris
Bouma, Byron, Bollig

That team also had Baertchi and Glencross until trade deadline.
That's way better depth to me, considering that Stajan and Bennett were WAY better than they are now.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I cannot believe Treliving still hasn’t addressed the 4th line of this team. We have a lot of our top players having career years and one who’s top 10 in scoring yet we’re still struggling mightily to score enough goals to win.

There’s something very wrong with that picture. We’re 50 games in and Lazar is still sitting at a goose egg and Matt Stajan has 2 points. If Stajan scored at the same pace as he did last season we’d probably have 2-3 additional wins and we all wouldn’t be as pissed off as we are right now.

Scoring dept is a problem for sure. But as someone pointed out, there can be more than one problem.

Also, I am not suggesting that Stajan or Lazar would score 20 goals in a different environment or anything like that, but I do think it is a valid question to ask how much of the lack of scoring from the bottom 6 is a function of the style of play?

They don't go to the net. They don't forecheck aggressively. They don't pinch much. They play a very careful style and try not to lose.

And it hurts their offence.

Here are the points from defensemen over the last 4 years:

2014/15: 195
2015/16: 203
2016/17: 176
2017/18: 133 (pace)

So either our defencemen, as a group, are getting a lot less talented offensively, or there is something different about the way they are playing and how they are being utilized.

I think almost everyone on here would agree that the current group is the most talented of the 4 years (certainly not the least), so there has to be something else at play.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Pointman

You said that I should go back and look at the depth that Hartley had, so I did. Flames roster for 2015 playoffs was

Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Ferland-Backlund-Jones
Bennett-Stajan-Colbourne
Raymond-Granlund-Jooris
Bouma, Byron

That team also had Baertchi until trade deadline.
That's way better depth to me, considering that Stajan and Bennett were WAY better than they are now.

They also had Glencross until the trade deadline. But your playoff lines are kinda wrong, sorry. Lemme fix 'em

Gaudreau - Monahan - Hudler
Ferland - Stajan - Jones
Bennett - Backlund - Colborne
Raymond - Jooris - Bollig

Bouma was hurt for most of the playoffs and replaced Raymond late. Granlund barely played.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Top line and 3M line are obviously legit NHLers. After that you have Bennett and Jankowski, who probably belong to NHL, but are somewhat borderline at this point (I don't want to turn this into Bennett or Jankowski thread, so let's count them in). After that we have guys, who are unable to play at NHL level and their production speaks for itself.

You said that I should go back and look at the depth that Hartley had, so I did. Flames roster for 2015 playoffs was

Gaudreau-Monahan-Hudler
Ferland-Backlund-Jones
Bennett-Stajan-Colbourne
Raymond-Granlund-Jooris
Bouma, Byron

That team also had Baertchi until trade deadline.
That's way better depth to me, considering that Stajan and Bennett were WAY better than they are now.

That is not WAY better depth.

What is different is that Hartley let them loose. The current team handles the puck like a grenade - they are all afraid to make a mistake. And they are reacting to the other team instead of driving the play more.

[Enoch Root]

Plus, the D is substantially better now.

So is the goaltending.

By better, I mean more talented.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

That is not WAY better depth.

What is different is that Hartley let them loose. The current team handles the puck like a grenade - they are all afraid to make a mistake. And they are reacting to the other team instead of driving the play more.

Whie the system/style of play also factors in, I still maintain that 2014-15 Flames had simply more NHL quality forwards. If you count in Glencross and Baertchi, who were traded awaybat the deadline, the difference in sheer number of NHL caliber skaters is huge.

2014-15 regular season forwards, sorted by goals, from 7th onwards

Raymond
Backlund
Glencross
Colbourne
Granlund
Stajan
Byron
Ferland
Bollig
Baertchi
Bennett (played only 1 game because of the injury, but played in playoffs)

That's 11 players after top six who were NHLers, borderline at least. It took me some time to digest - eleven legit NHLers after top six. That's deep no matter how you slice it.

Now the group from this season sorted by goals and games played, let's list next 11 after the top 6 goalscorers:

Bennett
Frolik
Brouwer
Versteeg
Hathaway
Jagr
Stajan
Lazar
Familton
Mangiapane
Glass


That's AHL quality after Versteeg (or Hathaway if you really like him). The 2014-15 team was miles deeper.

[Displaced Flames fan]

Bennett and Jankowski are borderline NHL players now,? The hyperbole when this team loses is disturbing.

They are 8-1-4 in the last 13, should be 10-0-3 with no power play whatsoever. It's pretty good! Yeah, some things need fixed but this isn't the Oilers who, by the way, also have legitimate NHL players on their 3rd line. But yeah, they should probably fire Tre and trade players like one trick pony Monahan, borderline NHLers Janko and Bennett and Gaudreau who supposedly doesn't backcheck. Ridiculous

[Displaced Flames fan]

Jesus, you don't even know who is in the organization!

[Finger Cookin]

Your miles deep forward roster had six forwards who would be out of the league within a season or two, two of those forwards in the top 6. I'm not sure why they're miles better than AHL quality, other than that's the story you want to tell. Those "legit" six are at least as borderline as your group of Hathaway on down in the current group.

It looks like your miles deep forward group had exactly one more NHLer.

[Enoch Root]

Frolik
Bennett (current version)
Jankowski
Versteeg
Brouwer
Hathaway (current version)

are better the the top 6 of the group you just listed. Or at worst, comparable. If you want to argue that the 14th and 15th forwards were better on that squad, sure whatever.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Jesus, you don't even know who is in the organization!

I do. I just went by most goals scored (and by most games played in case of 0 goals, hence Glass) to have a consistent comparison, since I have included Glencross and Baertchi into 2014-15 line-up

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Your miles deep forward roster had six forwards who would be out of the league within a season or two, two of those forwards in the top 6. I'm not sure why they're miles better than AHL quality, other than that's the story you want to tell. Those "legit" six are at least as borderline as your group of Hathaway on down in the current group.

It looks like your miles deep forward group had exactly one more NHLer.

The problem with this approach is that we don't know who from the current team will be in the league two seasons from now, so we can't apply that comparison consistently.

Guys like Raymond, Jooris Jones and Bouma all had double digits in goals, which shows that they were NHL quality that season.

[Pointman]

Goals scored by forwards from 7th onward.

2014-15: 64
2017-18(pace): 45

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Pointman

See, you can't argue depth, so you reverted to arguing top six. Yes, current top six, particularly second line, is on different level entirely, but that's not the point.

...did you read his post? The top 6, after having removed the actual top 6. Meaning slots 7-12. Meaning the entire rest of the forward group. Unless your argument is we had a better 13th forward eating popcorn in the press box. In which case, carry on.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

Would anyone here make the Hamonic trade over again if given the choice?

I'm trying to understand why the assets were spent on a defenseman when acquiring a top 6 scoring RW seemed a more immediate need. Would we really be that much worse off with a Gio-Hamilton, Brodie-Stone, Kulak-Andersson/Summer UFA back end, combined with the additional scoring help up front from the RW who was acquired? I think we'd be much better.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

But I don’t see much blame directed to the real problem, our lack of forward depth.

I've been saying this for weeks, months, years. This team lacks finishers and the GM even admitted as much in the offseason so I'm a little ticked his solution was to overspend on a 4th defenseman. The results we have seen are just as much on him as on the coach. Gulutzan has them playing responsible hockey but he doesn't have the horses to finish off teams in these low scoring, one goal games. That's on the GM but the coach also has to take blame for the state of special teams as if the powerplay was even average they would have a handful more wins. The season isn't over yet so if they can get into the playoffs maybe they can go on a run but if they miss the playoffs this is going to be a miserable place for a few months. That isn't the worst offense as the worst offense is the home record as the paying customers have gone home disappointed far too often and the boos last night were reflective of an extremely frustrated ticket base.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Pointman

The problem with this approach is that we don't know who from the current team will be in the league two seasons from now, so we can't apply that comparison consistently.

Guys like Raymond, Jooris Jones and Bouma all had double digits in goals, which shows that they were NHL quality that season.

We can definitely use hindsight to assess who was borderline NHL at the time. We can do the same with the current group two years from now. That's objective analysis. Quantifying one group as "legit" NHlers and the other as "AHL quality" is entirely subjective. And I don't agree with your take on the current forward group, nor that the past group was miles better.

Maybe in two years I'll look back and think you were on to something. Maybe not. But today, I don't think you are.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

Would anyone here make the Hamonic trade over again if given the choice?

Nope. Nothing against him as he's actually played better as the season progressed but I think Treliving could have got a very skilled winger for less than that price given how little Jordan Eberle went for. I feel the team could have managed with a bottom pairing of Kulak and Andersson as a sniping winger would have added a lot to this team including the woeful powerplay.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

Would anyone here make the Hamonic trade over again if given the choice?

I'm trying to understand why the assets were spent on a defenseman when acquiring a top 6 scoring RW seemed a more immediate need. Would we really be that much worse off with a Gio-Hamilton, Brodie-Stone, Kulak-Andersson/Summer UFA back end, combined with the additional scoring help up front from the RW who was acquired? I think we'd be much better.

the point is actually that the team needed both, and depending on how you're looking at it, they needed both in equal measure.

In my opinion the team is actually lacking 2 middle six players that can score.

I think they thought going into this season that Bennett and jagr could get them an extra ~40 goals, but if course that hasn't come close to happening.

As it stands the team will probably finish 30 goals or so from the top 10 in the league when all is said and done. Basically, missing an elite first line scorer or 2 good middle six scorers.