2017/2018 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[Ashasx]

Going "all in" also isn't usually the best way to win Stanley Cups in the NHL. If you look at the last 30 years, most Stanley Cup winners were perennial contenders for many years.

A lot of luck also goes into winning a Cup. Anything can happen in a 7 game series. Blowing all your chips on one run will lower the likelihood of contending in future years. I'd rather five plus seasons of being a good contender than one season of being a great one.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Going "all in" also isn't usually the best way to win Stanley Cups in the NHL. If you look at the last 30 years, most Stanley Cup winners were perennial contenders for many years.

A lot of luck also goes into winning a Cup. Anything can happen in a 7 game series. Blowing all your chips on one run will lower the likelihood of contending in future years. I'd rather five plus seasons of being a good contender than one season of being a great one.

Yup any assets spent should be used to make a team a contender long term.

Nashville, Pittsburgh, Chicago, etc all have done a good job of this in the past. Try not to waste assets on rental players.

It's why I feel like if the Flames are looking at any player right now closely it's probably Hoffman.

[Poe969]

If they could add to the core right now without taking someone away, it would be amazing. I just don't think the Flames have enough assets to acquire a good young potential core player right now. A guy like Hoffman would be ideal trade wise IMO but by the sounds of it, the sens are asking a lot. Kane may be a good fit just based on talent alone but again, the ask seems to be high. Simmonds is another guy who would be a good short term add to the team but they wouldn't be able to keep him around after his current contract.

I just don't know if they have what it takes to add a good player like those guys without taking away from the team right now. Depending on how the team does this year and how things shake out, adding through free agency is always an option too. I still think they should throw a huge contract at Tavares because he would be a great add to the team, if they really like Kane he's an option too.

The thing I keep thinking of is that if you add a good player, who's spot does he take? Where does he slot in the lineup? I think the most obvious spot would be Hathaway but I'd hate to take him out of the lineup. You could always shift him down but that would mean a guy like Eatbread would have to go so he could always be included in a deal but I don't think he has much value right now. Frolik and Versteeg seem like glue guys and they'll be coming back soon so you could wait and see if they add enough firepower and maybe not have to add anyone or you could include them in a trade.

As much as I'd love to add a new core player, I just don't think it can happen until the off season. Since I'm wrong a lot of the time, I'm thinking a big deal will happen shortly after I post this just to prove me wrong.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think people have a strange idea of what young is in this league nowadays. This is a young man's game now for offensive players. Monahan is not "young" as a goal scorer, statistically speaking, 23 is the peak year for goal scorers. Monahan as soon as next season potentially will be "old" or past his prime. Similar for Gaudreau but I think based on his style he'll have a longer peak. Farbeit for some fans to admit but the window is now. The Flames actually don't have the luxury of time their best assets all are facing the prospect of decline.

Good grief...no

Sidney Crosby 29
Evgeni Malkin 30
Phil Kessel 28
Conor Sheary 24
Justin Schultz 26
Patric Hornqvist 29
Nick Bonino 28
Kristopher Letang 29
Jake Guentzel 21
Matt Cullen 39

Your top 10 point getters for the Penguins with their age from last year, winners of 2 straight Stanley Cups and a perennial contender. Only Guentzel is younger than Monahan, the rest should supposedly be in an old folks home.

Jonathan Toews 26
Patrick Kane 25
Marian Hossa 35
Brandon Saad 21
Duncan Keith 31
Patrick Sharp 32
Brad Richards 34
Kris Versteeg 28
Brent Seabrook 29
Bryan Bickell 28

Your 2014-15 Chicago Blackhawks, only Saad is younger

Anze Kopitar 26
Jeff Carter 28
Justin Williams 31
Mike Richards 28
Drew Doughty 23
Vyacheslav Voynov 23
Dwight King 24
Tyler Toffoli 21
Dustin Brown 28
Jarret Stoll 31


Your 2013-14 LA Kings with most of their scorers past their peak 'prime'


Compare to your current 17-18 Flames top 10

Johnny Gaudreau 24
Sean Monahan 22
Matthew Tkachuk 19
Micheal Ferland 25
Mikael Backlund 28
Dougie Hamilton 24
Mark Giordano 33
T.J. Brodie 27
Sam Bennett 21
Mark Jankowski 22

Yeah, the Flames have a lot more time on their hands...

[oldschoolcalgary]

pretty sure your physical prime is at 27, physiologically speaking...

Pro athletes can certainly extend that peak conditioning to 30 i would think at least, barring major injuries of course.

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

pretty sure your physical prime is at 27, physiologically speaking...

Pro athletes can certainly extend that peak conditioning to 30 i would think at least, barring major injuries of course.

So maybe we should make a trade with Colorado.

To Colorado: Stajan/Lazar
To Calgary: Joe Colborne (27 years old)

.....I'll show myself out

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

pretty sure your physical prime is at 27, physiologically speaking...

Pro athletes can certainly extend that peak conditioning to 30 i would think at least, barring major injuries of course.

Agreed. And the dramatic drop off doesn’t typically happen for these well conditioned athletes (and soldiers) until about 35 years old. But then you get some serious anomalies like Jagr that it took until 40+.

23 yrs old? That’s a bit of a stretch. If your decline is at 23 yrs old, you have to question the commitment and developed ability from 20 yrs old and beyond.

[IgiTang]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

So maybe we should make a trade with Colorado.

To Colorado: Stajan/Lazar
To Calgary: Joe Colborne (27 years old)

.....I'll show myself out

Why? I’m starting to think Lazar has a ton of natural ability but never developed the way one would like after being drafted. That Natural ability has not disappeared and the determination is there. He could quite possibly turn into a late blooming solid bottom 6 guy. He needs to work on his mental speed and his leg strength. But I see a lot of Sam Bennett(falling all over the ice and poor timing with the play) from last season in curris Lazar.

[genetic_phreek]

Originally Posted by IgiTang

Why? I’m starting to think Lazar has a ton of natural ability but never developed the way one would like after being drafted. That Natural ability has not disappeared and the determination is there. He could quite possibly turn into a late blooming solid bottom 6 guy. He needs to work on his mental speed and his leg strength. But I see a lot of Sam Bennett(falling all over the ice and poor timing with the play) from last season in curris Lazar.

Yeah I wasn't being serious at all. I personally would like to have Lazar stay the course with development in Calgary. He has great physical tools and has a leadership ability about him. When he was in the world juniors, playing with great players he was able to excel. For sure it is all mental with him right now.

[Anduril]

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/


The data seems to suggest that forwards peak and plateau from 23-25 before gradually declining. On top of usually being on more team friendly deals, that's probably where the sweet spot is of making the most of a player's most productive years.

Lots of other things to consider (becoming more rounded, basic data, more analysis) before any definitive can be said.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Anduril

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/


The data seems to suggest that forwards peak and plateau from 23-25 before gradually declining. On top of usually being on more team friendly deals, that's probably where the sweet spot is of making the most of a player's most productive years.

Lots of other things to consider (becoming more rounded, basic data, more analysis) before any definitive can be said.

Correct. Points-wise, prime for forwards is 23-27. But for overall ability, and being a complete player, it's more like 25-30.

Monahan as soon as next season potentially will be "old" or past his prime

I get the reference, with respect to points, to to suggest he will be 'past his prime' as early as next year... come on.

[genetic_phreek]

I wonder if it would be worth the risk of trying to get Josh Ho Sang from the Isles. He's a skilled RW but similar to E.Kane, it seems he's got character issues.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

I wonder if it would be worth the risk of trying to get Josh Ho Sang from the Isles. He's a skilled RW but similar to E.Kane, it seems he's got character issues.

His AHL coach called him a baby the other day (but also improving).

Unless he comes at not more than a 3rd rounder, no thanks.

[rotten42]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

I think people have a strange idea of what young is in this league nowadays. This is a young man's game now for offensive players. Monahan is not "young" as a goal scorer, statistically speaking, 23 is the peak year for goal scorers. Monahan as soon as next season potentially will be "old" or past his prime. Similar for Gaudreau but I think based on his style he'll have a longer peak. Farbeit for some fans to admit but the window is now. The Flames actually don't have the luxury of time their best assets all are facing the prospect of decline.

Dude...put down the NyQuil...you've had too much!

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Anduril

https://hockey-graphs.com/2017/03/23...katers-part-1/


The data seems to suggest that forwards peak and plateau from 23-25 before gradually declining. On top of usually being on more team friendly deals, that's probably where the sweet spot is of making the most of a player's most productive years.

Lots of other things to consider (becoming more rounded, basic data, more analysis) before any definitive can be said.

This has more to do with teams adjusting to a player and that player working on his defensive game rather than the player truly declining. We've seen it in many players, including Overchkin. Overchkin took the league by storm and scored 52 goals and 106 points as a rookie. He certainly is a much stronger player now than he was as a rookie, the difference is he's more sound defensively and teams have a game plan against him. We've seen it with Gaudreau, we've also seen it with McDavid this year.

We've seen it with Crosby at 120 points in his 2nd year, yet anyone would take the version from last year versus his 20 year old self


Who do you pick?



Or

[442scotty]

I think some players mentally run out of gas long before their bodies do. They've been going all out since maybe 7 years of age?

[GioforPM]

The averages are for all players,. no matter how good, right? Given how many players have brief stints and are done before 25 (thereby getting zero thereafter) is that even accounted for?

Even if it is limited to players that actually cover the age range, IMO better players generally have longer peak periods. Part of the reason they are higher level is that they usually maintain their conditioning, plus they have skill levels which will support them for a longer time.

[dino7c]

Janko almost past his prime...well it was a good few months

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah it is kind of funny that two posters who were arguing that 'this team just isn't talented enough' a couple weeks ago in the fire Gulutzan discussions, are suddenly leading the charge for the 'Treliving needs to go all in right now' view.

i cant speak for tinordi as that guy is a disaster, but my comments are congruent with what i have maintained for awhile:

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I feel like the flames need a other 20 goals for as compared to last year to be a solid contender. An up year from Bennett could go a long way but so could 70+ games of janko and Foo.

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Saying it now.

If the Flames can get Jagr signed and he ends up as a 40point winger, the Flames have to be considered a cup contender at this point.

The only question mark for the team if they can get a scoring winger will be Goaltending, and I am optimistic the overwhelming defense provided by the additions of hamonic and stone will solidify that.

I feel like I've been waiting a long time to be this optimistic about the immediate potential of the team.

From last season:

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Agree with the sentiment but in the case of the Flames they are missing multiple pieces of a variety of blueprints.

Sure the kings won with low scoring because they had elite defenders and an elite, perhaps the best, goalie in the league.

Corey Crawford may not be elite but the Hawks won with 2 or 3 lines worth of scoring on top of having 3 elite offensive weapons in the lineup.

Right now the Flames don't have either. If they added one or the other they'd probably be a contending team.

I think if you added a 30 goal scoring winger to this roster right now they are serious cup contenders. Likewise if you added a top 3 goalie.

this recent outpouring of goals notwithstanding this roster still needs goals in the top 6 from the wing. Janko coming in with hathaway has solidified that 3rd line in a big way, but the roster is still missing goals from the wing.

I thought Jagr and Bennett could be the answer, but they aren't, so it's time to start looking again for the piece that puts the team over the top.

[Robbob]

Firebot IMO is bang on. I think naturally good young players are at peak point production early because as they learn the game they soon realize points aren't everything. I think there is a natural evolution for a elite players from point production to being a more complete player.