Team playoff eliminations countdowns - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

CaptainCrunch · 01-01-2018, 10:16 AM

Hail Me . . . For those who are about to die we salute you

I thought it would be fun to post the non playoff teams chances of making the playoffs and when they're eliminated.

So here we go, according to Sportsclub.com

Teams with 0 percent chance of making the playoffs. We are the dead

Arizona
Buffalo

Teams hanging on by a fingernail on the end of the world "There be monsters here"

Ottawa .7% chance of making the playoffs
Montreal 2% chance of making the playoffs
Vancouver 2.3% chance of making the playoffs

Teams that need a miracle bigger then Moses parting the Red Sea

Edmonton 5.3
Detroit 5.3
Pittsburgh 10.5%
Calgary 17.6%
Florida 17.7%

Remember that scene from Cliff Hanger with Stallone hanging from a wire by one hand. They're feeling the wind and preparing the Wilheim

Minny 31.3%
Colorado 32.9%
Anaheim 33.1%
Philly 36.6%
Carolina 43.5%

The rest in playoff spots.

Erick Estrada · 01-01-2018, 10:20 AM

A 6-8 game winning streak can totally flip your percentages especially if some of the wins on that streak are divisional/inter-conference. That said I would say it's a safe bet that outside of the Penguins, Ducks, and maybe Wild that the rest of the teams likely miss the playoffs.

442scotty · 01-01-2018, 10:33 AM

Could the Flames make the playoffs? Sure but I doubt it. As always I just want to see entertaining hockey from this team on a consistent basis. Anything else is gravy

bigrangy · 01-01-2018, 10:41 AM

Believe in snek

CSharp · 01-01-2018, 11:30 AM

Is the cup 17.6% full or empty for the Flames?

Heavy Jack · 01-01-2018, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSharp

Is the cup 17.6% full or empty for the Flames?

It’s 12.3 % more full than E=NG

1qqaaz · 01-01-2018, 11:39 AM

Wow I didn't realize the Flames were in that large of a hole

GGG · 01-01-2018, 02:48 PM

I think the sports club stats model using a bell curve probability distribution under estimates teams Chances of making the playoffs. Long improbable streaks happen more often than chance would dictate so I think the low probabilities need fatter tails.

For example I would bet that 1 of the 10 teams listed in the eliminated or Red Sea will make the playoffs whereas the odds of that happening per the stats are fairly low.

Jbo · 01-01-2018, 03:20 PM

We have a 17% chance 2 points off of 3rd in Pacific and 2 points out of a wild card spot?

dino7c · 01-01-2018, 03:25 PM

those odds are pretty useless right now tbh

We know it will be in the 95 point range for playoffs, Flames just need to start putting wins together

Duffalufagus · 01-02-2018, 11:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jbo

We have a 17% chance 2 points off of 3rd in Pacific and 2 points out of a wild card spot?

The sharks have 4 games in hand.

btimbit · 01-02-2018, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

Wow I didn't realize the Flames were in that large of a hole

Still a little early for these numbers to mean much unless they're drastically low or high. a 4-5 game winning streak and Calgary's odds would likely double

Duffalufagus · 01-02-2018, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by btimbit

Still a little early for these numbers to mean much unless they're drastically low or high. a 4-5 game winning streak and Calgary's odds would likely double

To 35%. Not looking good fur this year. The Vegas season makes it that much harder.

Samonadreau · 01-02-2018, 11:33 PM

Problem for the Flames isn't just that they are 4 points back of a playoff spot. It's that there are 4 teams to leapfrog to get to the 2nd wild card spot. Flames are 12th in the West. It won't be an easy task. Let's hope they can string a few wins together and get back in the mix.

Robbob · 01-02-2018, 11:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

To 35%. Not looking good fur this year. The Vegas season makes it that much harder.

35% with still have the season remaining. I will give you LV being almost a shoe in in the Pacific means only one Pacific and 2 wild spots are left. Their season has definitely turned things upside down.

Robbob · 01-02-2018, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

Problem for the Flames isn't just that they are 4 points back of a playoff spot. It's that there are 4 teams to leapfrog to get to the 2nd wild card spot. Flames are 12th in the West. It won't be an easy task. Let's hope they can string a few wins together and get back in the mix.

Or 4 points back of the third Pacific spot with only 2 teams to leap frog. We also got 2 games in hand on Anaheim.

Duffalufagus · 01-02-2018, 11:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbob

35% with still have the season remaining. I will give you LV being almost a shoe in in the Pacific means only one Pacific and 2 wild spots are left. Their season has definitely turned things upside down.

LV is in for sure. Kings in for sure. SJ likely in given how well they are playing and Anaheim is healthy again.

Flames need to go like .700 against the Pacific from here on out to have a real shot. Or another 10 game win streak would be nice.

Samonadreau · 01-02-2018, 11:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Robbob

Or 4 points back of the third Pacific spot with only 2 teams to leap frog.

Sanjo has 2 games in hand and are the stingiest team in the league. I think we hit a wildcard spot before 3rd in the Pacific.

Robbob · 01-03-2018, 07:35 AM

No doubt SJ is playing well, that is why that late loss to them stung. The sequence of events gifted them 2 points. Flames take it to OT they are at worst 3 points back.

Also 4 points, even with SJ with a couple games in hand, isn't that big of an obstacle with 40 plus games left. Especially when you also have a couple head to heads against the team.

442scotty · 01-03-2018, 08:23 AM

By the end of next week we will have a pretty good idea where the team will finish. They need to start a major win streak