[Rumour] Incoming Flames shake up

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

It’s pretty clear the player was overvalued by Treliving. With better goaltending the team is at nearly the same pace as last season. Meanwhile the Islanders haven’t really missed him.

People keep saying this but it isn't true.

They were 21st last season in team save percentage at .907
This year they are 17th at .910

They are getting killed by shooting percentage at 23rd in the league.

If they scored at the rate they did last year with their shots against and scoring differentials as is this team would be deep into the playoffs by now. (14th last season, 26th this season, and a full percentage point out, costing them 14 goals thus far)


Why are they low on the shooting percentage totem poll? Treliving was worried where the goals were going to come from, and the powerplay has been abysmal. That's a start.

But Smith hasn't saved this team. It's a false narrative.

[TheAlpineOracle]

I don’t have that big of a problem with what was paid for Hamonic, my problem has always been that Hamonic on this d core is redundant. Those assets if going to be used should have been used to fill a position of much greater need (top 6 winger who can put the Puck in the net). I’ve said since day 1 that was an awful use of precious resources.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

We are / were laughing at them for essentially doing just that for Griffen Reinhart.

That is nowhere near the level of bad the Hamonic trade is. Steep? Sure, but he's a good defenseman on a good contract.

Yeah the Reinhart trade was worse, one of the worst trades ever that I can think of. Interestingly the Islanders went into that draft with neither a first or second round pick, and after the Reinhart deal and another swap of picks, walked away with two first rounders.

So who is our Griffin Reinhart?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Picks have established value. The price the Flames paid for Hamonic raised eyebrows around the league. It's not often you see someone who isn't a front-line star player traded for a 1st and two 2nds. We'd be laughing at the Oilers right now if they made that deal.

lol the Oilers did it for a much worse player who they lost in the expansion draft

FFS Flames almost got a 1st for 2 months of Kris Russell...Dallas blowing it in the playoffs turned it into a 2nd.

The vast majority of the talking heads thought the Flames made a fair deal at the time. I think some people need to go look at some past draft lists. Outside the top 10 half the guys don't even become NHLers...it was a calculated risk, there is always risk.

[Svartsengi]

Originally Posted by Bingo

People keep saying this but it isn't true.

They were 21st last season in team save percentage at .907
This year they are 17th at .910

They are getting killed by shooting percentage at 23rd in the league.

If they scored at the rate they did last year with their shots against and scoring differentials as is this team would be deep into the playoffs by now. (14th last season, 26th this season, and a full percentage point out, costing them 14 goals thus far)


Why are they low on the shooting percentage totem poll? Treliving was worried where the goals were going to come from, and the powerplay has been abysmal. That's a start.

But Smith hasn't saved this team. It's a false narrative.

That .910 save percentage your using must include Eddie Lack at .813 and Gillies at .750, Mike Smith is at .920 and Rittich at .924 the Flames goaltending is much better this year and a lot of that has to do with Mike Smith.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by cross16

Agreed.

Price was step and I get why, but what I never understood is why are you giving up a premium price for the 4th best dman on your dman and not even addressing the biggest need on your team.

Everyone universally recognized that these were the biggest needs heading into the off-season last year:

1) Starting goaltender (and backup goaltender to a lesser extent)

2) #4 defenseman

3) Top 6 RW


Tre went out and got Smith. It's worked out well.
He went out and got Lack. It didn't work out, but it provided the replacement level of competition necessary for Rittich to outshine him and earn the job going forward.

Before we had re-signed Stone, what exactly were the options for our #4 defenseman? Oh yeah, that's right...Matt Bartkowski. Can anyone sit here and tell me that you would have been satisfied with that going into the year?

Fact remains, the Hamonic trade was out of necessity and it was by far the best option out there in terms of the quality of player available. What other top 4 d-man was available via trade? What other free agents would have been a better option than Hamonic? Cody Franson? I honestly can't think of any. Tre had to make that deal for so many reasons, and the cost wasn't completely exorbitant.

We got a top 4 defender with a solid history in the NHL, plenty of high level NHL experience (including playoffs), 3 years of a sweetheart deal (4th highest paid defenseman on the team at just $3.875 M), not to mention that he checked the boxes of a physical defender who can skate and is strong in his own end (especially on the PK). The cherry on top is that he's a good fit for the roster in terms of background (Western Canada) and has already shown to be of extremely high character and does a large amount of charity work.

Look at what I just listed and tell me that Hamonic isn't worth what we paid. Just because the overall team results haven't been there, it doesn't mean the Hamonic add was a bad idea. Read the Haynes article from today and you'll see that the team has become one of the stingiest defensive teams in the league lately, and I think a large part of that is the stabilization that Hamonic gave the 2nd pair. As soon as I say that, I'm sure there will be a bunch of people throwing out some plays that he's made that were not great, but those plays have largely disappeared and if anything bad happens it's either bad luck (like off his skate the other night) or a Brodie gaff that he hasn't been able to cover for.

Besides which, we still haven't seen Hamonic play at his very best yet. When that happens, you'd be surprised at just how effective he can be. He's a great shutdown defender, and he can neutralize the best offensive players in the league when he's playing well.

Sorry for the long post, but I think Hamonic is a helluva player that we are being extremely short-sighted about. People are wringing their hands about a potential "lottery" pick in exchange for him, but what people often forget about a lottery is that the odds of winning are normally infinitesimally small. At worst, there's no way this team will end up with anything greater than a 15% chance of a top 3 pick, and I'm still pretty confident that this is a playoff team that is still going through some growing pains as they mature and become a real threat. It's far more likely that this pick will be in the 20s and won't result in an impact player. If it does, it won't be for several years anyway.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by cross16

Agreed.

Price was step and I get why, but what I never understood is why are you giving up a premium price for the 4th best dman on your dman and not even addressing the biggest need on your team.

The biggest need I assume you're speaking of is a #1 RW. Our very own Ferland is tied for 27th in goals this season and hasn't even played on the top line or PP for the entire year. Among wingers, Ferland's tied for 15th in goals. In fact, the wingers who also have 15 goals are Evander Kane, Filip Forsberg, Brad Marchand, Mark Stone, Jason Zucker, David Pastranak, and Brendan Gallagher. I know Ferland doesn't rack up assists, but Gaudreau and Monahan have been one of the highest scoring duos the past 3 seasons, so a linemate with Ferland's production should be just fine.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

The biggest need I assume you're speaking of is a #1 RW. Our very own Ferland is tied for 27th in goals this season and hasn't even played on the top line or PP for the entire year. Among wingers, Ferland's tied for 15th in goals. In fact, the wingers who also have 15 goals are Evander Kane, Filip Forsberg, Brad Marchand, Mark Stone, Jason Zucker, David Pastranak, and Brendan Gallagher. I know Ferland doesn't rack up assists, but Gaudreau and Monahan have been one of the highest scoring duos the past 3 seasons, so a linemate with Ferland's production should be just fine.

Thanks for that, I knew I wanted to address how Ferland has filled that top 6 RWer role adequately, but I didn't get around to it in my post.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

People keep saying this but it isn't true.

They were 21st last season in team save percentage at .907
This year they are 17th at .910

They are getting killed by shooting percentage at 23rd in the league.

If they scored at the rate they did last year with their shots against and scoring differentials as is this team would be deep into the playoffs by now. (14th last season, 26th this season, and a full percentage point out, costing them 14 goals thus far)


Why are they low on the shooting percentage totem poll? Treliving was worried where the goals were going to come from, and the powerplay has been abysmal. That's a start.

But Smith hasn't saved this team. It's a false narrative.

I think assuming that 13 more goals this season (which if they had the same shooting percentage as last year puts them deep into the playoffs is a bit misleading).

Best case scenario for the Flames is 4 of those goals are used to turn OTL's in W's. And they turn their only 4 1 goal regulation losses into wins, giving them an extra 8 points. That would put them deep into the playoffs.

If you evenly distributed the goals, on average the Flames would have 3 out of the 13 goals affect a game, giving them 3 more points and placing them 1 point ahead of Anaheim for the final playoff spot

[Badgers Nose]

If Flames win the cup this year then Flames won the Hamonic trade.

And even if they don't, they'll probably win that trade. He's fine now after a longish settling in period. He fits their window and Flames are very good at drafting NHLers outside of the 1st round.

BT is going for it. They went out and got their boy - the best D available last off season.

Goaltending is finally sorted.

They have a GOAT candidate to help teach the kids how to be 20 year pros. I love that.

The scoring winger was found in the system.

If Flames are sellers in March, BT will cross that bridge then. If we need lots of picks, we'll get them. I don't see that happening.

The only shakeup that makes sense is 4th line changes (more youth). Splashy roster changes is way more than a roster shake up.

[Bonded]

The only way I will be really mad about the Hamonic trade is if somehow it turns into the Brady Tkachuk pick. Mostly because of the antics that would ensue with both of them on the same team.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by dino7c

lol the Oilers did it for a much worse player who they lost in the expansion draft

FFS Flames almost got a 1st for 2 months of Kris Russell...Dallas blowing it in the playoffs turned it into a 2nd.

The vast majority of the talking heads thought the Flames made a fair deal at the time. I think some people need to go look at some past draft lists. Outside the top 10 half the guys don't even become NHLers...it was a calculated risk, there is always risk.

The Oilers trade was obviously much worse as at least Treliving got an established NHL defenseman on a good contract. Oilers got nothing for those picks and to make things worse that first round pick turned into Barzal who would be 2nd in scoring on the Oilers today. At the end of the day though good organizations don't look at the Oilers for measuring sticks on anything not involving lottery balls. If anything the Islanders probably like doing business with the Alberta clubs.

Here's an article by Cullen showing that in the first round has high probability of providing 100+ games played and non playoff teams have at the very least a 1/3 chance of getting a top 6 forward or top 4 defender. There is risk but the reward is high. I could have lived with a 1st round pick and maybe 3rd going back because you are probably happy if that first turns out into a 4th defender like Hamonic but the two 2nd round picks are pretty hard to swallow.

https://www.tsn.ca/statistically-spe...value-1.786131

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Thanks for that, I knew I wanted to address how Ferland has filled that top 6 RWer role adequately, but I didn't get around to it in my post.

My crappy cell phone would not let me quote your long post, but I would have done this instead in an ideal world.

1) Signed Alzner for 4.65 a year over 5 years (slightly more than Montreal signed him for)

2) Traded Brouwer and a 1st for Schenn (Brouwer would have to waive his NTC)

3) Signed Stone like we did.

That would have cost the Flames about 1.7 million more than we are currently spending.

And in a world where BT knows he is going to likely sign Stone (as I am assuming he did not do those two moves in isolation) I would not sign anyone and would have Kulak and Andersson as my 3rd pair but would get Schenn.

[Geeoff]

I do think the Flames will either sign Backlund by the deadline or trade him, so that's something exciting to look forward to

[Red]

Originally Posted by Bingo

People keep saying this but it isn't true.

They were 21st last season in team save percentage at .907
This year they are 17th at .910

They are getting killed by shooting percentage at 23rd in the league.

If they scored at the rate they did last year with their shots against and scoring differentials as is this team would be deep into the playoffs by now. (14th last season, 26th this season, and a full percentage point out, costing them 14 goals thus far)


Why are they low on the shooting percentage totem poll? Treliving was worried where the goals were going to come from, and the powerplay has been abysmal. That's a start.

But Smith hasn't saved this team. It's a false narrative.

Smith is 10x goalie to what we had last year. Anyone not legally blind can see that.

Let's not forget that we saw stats suggesting that Conklin was better than Brodeaur.

So yes maybe the stats tell you that goaltending is the same, but without Smith this team is below .500 right now. He stole a few to start the year and been solid for most of the season. Had 2 or 3 sub par games. Last year was a goaltending disaster. Probably worst goaltending in the NHL.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

My crappy cell phone would not let me quote your long post, but I would have done this instead in an ideal world.

1) Signed Alzner for 4.65 a year over 5 years (slightly more than Montreal signed him for)

2) Traded Brouwer and a 1st for Schenn (Brouwer would have to waive his NTC)

3) Signed Stone like we did.

That would have cost the Flames about 1.7 million more than we are currently spending.

And in a world where BT knows he is going to likely sign Stone (as I am assuming he did not do those two moves in isolation) I would not sign anyone and would have Kulak and Andersson as my 3rd pair but would get Schenn.

How do you get the 2nd trade?

You realize the Blues paid 2 first round picks for Schenn right?

You also are going into the season with minimal depth on the blueline if they started the season with Kulak and Andersson.

Alzner also sucks so glad they didn’t commit that term and money to him.

[Spinach]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Can you name them? I realize the Phaneuf and Gilmour trades will always be regarded as the worst and the Marc Savard trade was stupid but what other trade have the Flames ever given up so much futures? I don't think it's over dramatic at all.

Lo 30 years ago, the Flames did move a young sniper who'd end up as one of the best goal-scorers of all time: Brett Hull. And that was for a #4-ish defenceman similar to Hamonic, as well as a backup goalie.

Now, the likelihood that the 1st in the Hamonic trade becomes a Brett Hull is practically nill. And the circumstances are different. Still, the 1988 trade didn't immediately lead to a deep playoff run, and the 2017 one may not either. As much as it stings to miss out on a chance to draft, say, 5th-15th, it's a move that could pay dividends beyond this season.

I'm not a huge fan of the Hamonic move myself, but it's nowhere near as bad as the Savard or Gilmour trades. And, as the Phaneuf trade didn't work out particularly well for either team, it's probably not comparable to the Hamonic one.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

My crappy cell phone would not let me quote your long post, but I would have done this instead in an ideal world.

1) Signed Alzner for 4.65 a year over 5 years (slightly more than Montreal signed him for)

2) Traded Brouwer and a 1st for Schenn (Brouwer would have to waive his NTC)

3) Signed Stone like we did.

That would have cost the Flames about 1.7 million more than we are currently spending.

And in a world where BT knows he is going to likely sign Stone (as I am assuming he did not do those two moves in isolation) I would not sign anyone and would have Kulak and Andersson as my 3rd pair but would get Schenn.

The Stone move came well after we had Hamonic, and it probably drove the price down for Stone on his contract. I will concede your final point though.

I don't see Alzner as an upgrade on Hamonic, and he costs more. And with the defenders we have in the system, I certainly wouldn't have wanted him for 5 years blocking the way for a superior defenseman like Valimaki or Andersson.

As for your Brouwer trade...well, that's some pie in the sky type of trade proposal. First, you have to get Brouwer to waive after 1 season. Not sure that happens. Secondly, you include the same 1st round pick that we are worried about for Schenn who is having an insane breakout year in St. Louis. Thirdly, you are assuming Philly makes that trade when the deal that actually made was for a vastly superior NHLer in Lehtera, the 27th overall pick in that draft, and ANOTHER future 1st round pick! That's just not a realistic trade, sorry.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

I do think the Flames will either sign Backlund by the deadline or trade him, so that's something exciting to look forward to

I agree with this post 100% I do think if the Flames do any heavy lifting before the summer it will happen this month (unless it is trading Backs)

Treliving/Burke have stated they like to get their work done ahead of the deadline but if they are selling Backlund they likely wait until right before the deadline.

The team plays 6 more games over the next 2 Weeks then they have their 5 day break. I could see a deal being done just before or during the break and if GG is fires it will be shortly before the break

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

The Stone move came well after we had Hamonic, and it probably drove the price down for Stone on his contract. I will concede your final point though.

I don't see Alzner as an upgrade on Hamonic, and he costs more. And with the defenders we have in the system, I certainly wouldn't have wanted him for 5 years blocking the way for a superior defenseman like Valimaki or Andersson.

As for your Brouwer trade...well, that's some pie in the sky type of trade proposal. First, you have to get Brouwer to waive after 1 season. Not sure that happens. Secondly, you include the same 1st round pick that we are worried about for Schenn who is having an insane breakout year in St. Louis. Thirdly, you are assuming Philly makes that trade when the deal that actually made was for a vastly superior NHLer in Lehtera, the 27th overall pick in that draft, and ANOTHER future 1st round pick! That's just not a realistic trade, sorry.

Sorry, I would have to add the 2 2nd's and hope that two seconds equals a 27th overall pick. Don't know why I forgot about the lottery protected 2nd 1st.

Lehtera sucks, he sucks this year, he sucked last year, he sucked the year before that, he is terrible at the sport of hockey and makes more money than Brouwer. Brouwer has 4.5 times as many points as Lehtera this year, he had more points last year, more points the year before. Brouwer is a vastly superior NHLer, Lehtera is epically bad.