Playoff Probabilities

[Brick]

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Flames have 38% chance of making the playoffs currently.

[dino7c]

Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't

[Timbo]

The playoff Snake holds all answers!

[Huntingwhale]

We have a 50% chance. We either make it, or we don't.

[flamesforcup]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

We have a 50% chance. We either make it, or we don't.

You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont

[FireItUp]

Flames 38.0% > Oilers 8.0%

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Too early for these stats...you really think the knights are 72% for the playoffs? I don't

The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.

So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.

[stang]

Originally Posted by flamesforcup

You have a 50% chance to win the lottery. You either win it or u dont

I’m buying a ticket!

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by stang

I’m buying a ticket!

Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.

It's math.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

Yiu buy one and I'll buy one. One of us is guaranteed to win and we split it.

It's math.

Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.

I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to

Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.

[Sutter_in_law]

Originally Posted by stang

I’m buying a ticket!

pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...

[Otto-matic]

If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.

[Insane_Flame]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

If the Flames can turn around their garbage D. They only need to go 30-20-7 to get to 96 points. That should be easy for this club to do if they play a full team game.

I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.

[Otto-matic]

Originally Posted by Insane_Flame

I agree, considering the Wild I think made it with 86 points. They will turn it around. You have to think that even though they didn't get up to play against the oilers that it had to be some kind of reality check. ugh, what a gross game.

Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.

If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.

[stang]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Actually not quite. If you each have a 50% chance of winning, the odds of one of you winning is actually 75%. The odds of both of you winning is 25%.

I'll also buy one, so the odds of one of us winning increase to

Now if I also but one, the odds of one of us wining goes up to 87.%, so we can split is 3 ways.

The three of us are going to be rich!!

Originally Posted by Sutter_in_law

pffft, typical Oiler fan getting excited about the lottery in December...

Haha that was a good one!

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GGG

The stats assume (weighted) that teams are as good as their play indicates. So the validity of that model is how well the current play predicts their future play. I think they use Goal Differential in the model rather than just record.

So like most statistical tools it's a starting point. Do the Flames have about a 38% chance of making the playoffs? That seems reasonable. Do the knights make it 3/4 times probably not but it's not lower than 50/50. Really shows how early wins and banking those points pays off.

Except Vegas has had the leagues easiest schedule...billion home games and a steady diet of the Yotes

[Insane_Flame]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

Hate to say it but tonight is a huge game to see where the team is mentally.

If they come out flat and full of "nervous energy" I personally would take a long look at GG if I was Treliving.

I agree with GG. Not sure much Tre, I think he has done what can be expected of him. But GG not getting the team prepared to play from the get go almost every game needs to change. I don't even care if the product is a little boring if it is executed properly. I care about W's!

[united]

We could track a few different sources.

Hockey Reference (as you mentioned) has them at 36%
Corsica Hockey has them at 57%
Sports Club Stats (Weighted) has them at 40%
Hockey Viz has them at 55%

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Brick

https://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

Flames have 38% chance of making the playoffs currently.

I'll take it over the Oilers' 7.6% chance.

[vanisleflamesfan]

Seems high.