The woes of the bottom six

[GullFoss]

Here is the point contribution of the aggregated bottom six over a theoretical 82 game season. Whats clear is that collectively, the bottom six simply isn't getting it done, performing worse than under Bob Hartley in the 2015-16 season. Id be interested to hear other posters' views on what the problem is with the bottom six.




In my view, the problem could be any of four things:

(1) Bad players
(2) Bad coaching
(3) Lack of support from the back end?
(4) Bad luck?


In my view, the issue is systemic namely because its statistically unlikely that each of the players in our bottom six would regress so rapidly at the same time. Below shows the points each player would have assuming 82 games played in each season. Note the massive regression of every player over the past year!



I believe the systemic issue of the problem makes diagnosis (4)Bad Luck too simplistic because a bad luck streak is unlikely to impact so many different players simultaneously for such a long stretch of games.

That leaves options 1, 2 and 3. And I think the problem is a bit of each.

1) There are some bad players on the bottom six, while limit the effectiveness of the lines. Bennett is not playing like a top 9 player, which limits the effectiveness of the third line. Meanwhile, Stajan is dragging down the fourth line. I think this is why we've seen GG experiment with Versteeg on the third line (didn't work) and Hamilton/Lazar as a bottom line Center (also not working). Perhaps then, the answer is to utilize Bennett as a fourth line Center and bring in a different top-9 forward (like Hathaway or Mangiapane or a different player via trade) who pairs well with Janko and Jagr.

2) GG expects the fourth line to play a similar style to the top three lines, but its obvious that the fourth line does not have the talent do this effectively at this time. Most fourth lines in the league are energy based rather than skill based. Versteeg and Brouwer are arguably top 9 players, so perhaps the answer is to replace Stajan (an AHL calibre centreman) with a Center capable of playing top 9 minutes. Alternatively, perhaps the fourth line needs to abandon the possession game and simply revert to an energy game of get the puck in deep and hammer away at the other team. This would likely require different players than Versteeg and Stajan on the bottom line.

3) The strength of the team is on the back end (its where the money is tied up), but the back-end pairings lack chemistry and seemingly lack the freedom to play to the best of their offensive abilities. First, Hamilton, Brodie, and Gio's rushing capabilities could be activated more often, which would drive more offence. Second, the Brodie-Hamonic pairing is a disaster, while the Hamilton-Gio pairing leads to a redundancy of offensive skills set. From this perspective, Gio-Brodie / Hamilton-Hamonic makes much more sense.

[Madrox]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

In my view, the issue is systemic namely because its statistically unlikely that each of the players in our bottom six would regress so rapidly at the same time. Below shows the points each player would have assuming 82 games played in each season. Note the massive regression of every player over the past year!

One thing that stood out immediately to me that you didn't address is the age factor. 4 of the 5 guys you have a track record for are at an age and point in their career where it would be surprising if they didn't have some regression. Bennett, to me anyway, is the only guy whose decline is really surprising, but that could have something to do with being expected to play with guys that have lost a step and are unable to keep up with an increasingly quick NHL game.

I think a lot of people on the boards here are too afraid to look at splitting up the 3M line, but I think it might be just what the team needs. Backlund and Frolik have a history of playing well with whoever gets slotted in with them, and I think some time on their wing might be just what Bennett needs. I feel like Tkachuk has the ability to be the guy to carry a line, and I think having him with Janko on the 3rd line could make that a more competitive line. Get some speed from Stockton on the 4th, and we might look better right off the bat.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Here's my crack at the bottom six fix.. The Jankowski-Jagr combo looks good, but plays are dying on Bennett's stick. Move Bennett. I'd move him to the Frolik and Backlund line and see if they can get him going. Tkachuk will definitely finish more of the good work Jankowski and Jagr are doing. If Bennett can't get going, then its time to trade him and give him a fresh start somewhere.

The guys on the 4th line just need to be sent packing. Hamilton is just a bad hockey player. Waive him again and get it over with, but this time send him down for good. Lazar is in that same boat. Stajan needs to retire. There is nothing he does on ice that provides any value. Brouwer is the one guy I would consider keeping, because of his ability to fill in throughout the lineup, but that is debateable. Three of those guys need to go and be replaced with some guys who want it from the minors. I would rather have some young guys out there skating their assess off and causing some mayhem than watching the rotation of the four pylons we currently have out there.

[Erick Estrada]

I also think there are too many instances where the 4th line is on the ice with the 3rd defensive pairing. It leads to the line being trapped in their own end and it's hard to produce any offense when you don't have much in the way of offensive zone time.

We also have to be realistic that Stajan is a player on massive decline, Versteeg and Brouwer are both on declines, Hamilton is not an NHL player and Lazar is 22 years old and finding his way. When players trend down so does their offensive productivity so no real surprise that the three elder players are not producing. The 3rd line is harder to pin because they have had some chances of late and a lot of goal posts hit, goaltender saves, or just not cashing in on chances. Really does seem to be somewhat snake bitten.

[blender]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I also think there are too many instances where the 4th line is on the ice with the 3rd defensive pairing. It leads to the line being trapped in their own end and it's hard to produce any offense when you don't have much in the way of offensive zone time.

This.
I'm not anti-GG like some here, but I believe this happens way too often and usually with bad results.

[Fire in the disco]

Can’t wait for the “Whoa’s! Of the Bottom Six” thread. I think the 3rd line breaks out over the next few weeks. If the 4th line can start putting up a couple goals that will be gravy.

[Hot_Flatus]

The problem is that out of Jagr, Versteeg, Stajan, Brouwer, all 4 have been regressing every year and the latter 2 have no skill or foot speed. At least Jagr and Versteeg still have the IQ and talent to produce if surrounded by quality players. I can't side with you on the systematic thing when the team went into the season with so many clear regression candidates. Bennett and Jankowski are the only players that should be trending up and only the latter, Jankowski, actually looks like an NHL player.

Add it all up and you've got maybe 3 decent NHL forward for a bottom 6 that should have 7-8 players fighting to contribute on a playoff team.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Fire in the disco

Can’t wait for the “Whoa’s! Of the Bottom Six” thread. I think the 3rd line breaks out over the next few weeks. If the 4th line can start putting up a couple goals that will be gravy.

Yeah I think tonight is Bennett's break out game!

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

The problem is that out of Jagr, Versteeg, Stajan, Brouwer, all 4 have been regressing every year and the latter 2 have no skill or foot speed. At least Jagr and Versteeg still have the IQ and talent to produce if surrounded by quality players. I can't side with you on the systematic thing when the team went into the season with so many clear regression candidates. Bennett and Jankowski are the only players that should be trending up and only the latter, Jankowski, actually looks like an NHL player.

Add it all up and you've got maybe 3 decent NHL forward for a bottom 6 that should have 7-8 players fighting to contribute on a playoff team.

This is where I'm at.

The league seems to be increasing speed by 10% a year, while the Flames have the majority of their bottom six regressing and slow to begin with. I think if the Flames could, they'd wipe the slate clean and go with younger faster players, but contracts prohibit that.

I would guess they'll honour Stajan by keeping him with the big club for his final season, but buy out Brouwer this summer and obviously not bring Jagr back.

They can't keep up.

[bubbsy]

what's the first graph showing?

My thoughts on our bottom 6 lack of scoring is that:
1) The 4th line is a mess. They aren't a traditional energy/Crash&bang line. The guys they are playing on that 4th line aren't skilled enough to play that way (stajan, lazar, hamilton, to a lesser degree brouwer), nor are they fast and/or gritty enough to play an energy role (versteeg, stajan). Gulutzan needs to Figure out what he wants that line to be. My opinion is that we don't have enough skill on the depth chart, as such the 4th line must be a energy line, and that we should be playing the appropriate personnel there to play that type of game. No it won't create more goals from the 4th line, but that line won't be such a liability on the ice, nor such a possession/scoring chance against black hole.
My suggestion:
Hathaway - Lazar - Brouwer (Hamilton with the injury to jagr)


2) I give credit to gulutzan for giving the 3rd line a chance. They were able to generate some chances, but they have had some bad luck in cashing in on those, have faced consistency issues, and now are facing health issues with probably the biggest cog in the line, jagr, getting injured again. Even if he wasn't, i think they need to give up on the line for now. A rookie center who's just learning the NHL game, a 45 year old who's trying to figure out if he's got the stamina to keep things going, and a kid in sam bennett who is having some major confidence issues and likely is feeling the weight of the world on his shoulders. Those are 3 good but flawed components that i don't think can combine to make a successful line.

My suggestion would be to swap peices of the 3M and 3rd line.
Bennett - Backlund - Frolik
Tkachuk - Jankowski - Jagr (and in the meantime brouwer, versteeg - when healthy)

I think this makes sense because bennett gets to play with some established NHLers who carry the play, not to mention he has had success earlier in his career playing there.

secondly, i think Tkachuk has quietly been pretty amazing this year. He makes at least a play or 2 a night that helps create a solid scoring chance. After gaudreau and jagr, he's the next best playmaking/passing forward on the team, in my opinion. So not only are we putting a great playmaker on a line with Jankowski/Jagr, we are complimenting it with another player who's great along the boards and on the cycle.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yeah I think tonight is Bennett's break out game!

he took over half a dozen stitches to the face last game. I wouldn't be surprised for him to be off for the next few days unfortunately....

[Badgers Nose]

That’s a lot of analysis. Thanks.

[Classic_Sniper]

I've been very critical of the bottom 6 this season and I think a lot of my hostility towards them is directed at the way they're built. They have no IDENTITY.

Regarding the 4th line:

They're not fast. So they can't win races to loose pucks, their forecheck is ineffective and they're constantly chasing the game. Likely contributes to the constant 'one and done' that we see from this line.

They don't play a heavy game: They don't pin defenders into the boards and activate cycle, they don't hit hard enough to cause turnovers and they don't play with enough physicality to be 'hard to play against'

Regarding the 3rd line:

They've played relatively well with Jagr on the line, they've created chances and scoring opportunities, but they ultimately lack finish. As Treliving has said, it's the "do it league," not the try league. These guys are legitimate NHLers and they're paid to execute both game plans and on their scoring chances.

Personally, I would love to see more speed injected into the line up. I think keeping a Paul Byron would've been perfect for our bottom 6 right now, he has that game breaking speed and ability to change a game that the bottom 6 is devoid of. But at this rate, I'd take a Hathaway, Hrvik and Mangiapane promotion to the NHL line up right now. We're currently out of a playoff position despite the heroic efforts from Mike Smith and utter domination from the 1st line. It's going to be a dog race just to make the playoffs and ultimately, we're going to need all of them to pull this sled past the finish line.

[Badgers Nose]

Bennett is not an NHLer right now (right now being the key phrase). He deserves zero promotion over Tkachuk. Why risk 3M? Imagine if this team had three broken lines rather than two.

I don't think Sam should play right now - his confidence is shot and he seems like a real head case. He needs to watch from the box. Since they can't risk demoting him, bench him. I'd love it if they could send him to the AHL for some confidence building.

Hamilton (AHL), Stajan (Press Box) and Brouwer (AHL) should also be off the lineup.

Lazar (AHL) should be used the way Freddie is right now. That's probably a failed project, unless BT planned to give up a 2nd for a 13th forward.

What a mess the bottom six is.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Why risk 3M?

I think if we want to get 3 lines of offense, we have to spread the high end skill out.
My view of the established high end skill players are:
- Gaudreau
- Monahan
- Tkachuk
- Backlund

Then you have the guys who have the talent to play with skill players and do well:
- Ferland
- Frolik
- Jankowski
- Bennett

Right now all our dependable skill is loaded up on the top 2 lines, and yet here we are still concerned about depth scoring. In order to stimulate some offense, i think we gotta spread the wealth to see some results.

[EVERLAST]

Stajan , F Hamilton, Lazar Bennett just aren't getting it done.

I see effort but also see mistakes due to lack of confidence and I don't know how that gets fixed.
Troy Brouwer is playing so much better. He's involved physically and stopped being an entire waste of skin and it's awesome to see as we need it desperately.
It's amazing watching this team and year after year watching guys try and play the game alone , without confidence without support from team mates or vice versa.
There is enough healthy competition that guy's in Stockton by the half way point have to start getting time up in the show.

I don't think Jankowski is getting nearly enough time yet and is getting sheltered too much.
My only issue is G G does this too much.
They talked on the fan 960 about how this is the first time that our top line stopped getting sheltered minutes and this is how they have managed to thrive this year.
I agree with New Era about spreading around the wealth and sticking to it .

Bottom line is we also have to play better in front of our goalies....that's the whole teams responsibility.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

The problem is that out of Jagr, Versteeg, Stajan, Brouwer, all 4 have been regressing every year and the latter 2 have no skill or foot speed. At least Jagr and Versteeg still have the IQ and talent to produce if surrounded by quality players. I can't side with you on the systematic thing when the team went into the season with so many clear regression candidates. Bennett and Jankowski are the only players that should be trending up and only the latter, Jankowski, actually looks like an NHL player.

Add it all up and you've got maybe 3 decent NHL forward for a bottom 6 that should have 7-8 players fighting to contribute on a playoff team.

For Jagr and Stajan, sure, the regression is not a surprise. But Versteeg and Brouwer should not be regressing that fast. And Bennett should be progressing, not regressing. And Lazar is spinning his wheels. Hamilton? Hathaway?

We haven't had a SINGLE PLAYER who has taken a spot in the bottom 6 , actually improve. Not one. In well over a year.

Who is the last bottom 6er that has actually improved - or hell, even held steady?

I honestly can't think of the last one. And no, Jankowski doesn't count. He hasn't been here long enough to draw any conclusions yet.

Either there is a serious problem somewhere in this organization, or the Flames have had an unbelievable run of bad luck over the last couple years.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

For Jagr and Stajan, sure, the regression is not a surprise. But Versteeg and Brouwer should not be regressing that fast. And Bennett should be progressing, not regressing. And Lazar is spinning his wheels. Hamilton? Hathaway?

We haven't had a SINGLE PLAYER who has taken a spot in the bottom 6 , actually improve. Not one. In well over a year.

Who is the last bottom 6er that has actually improved - or hell, even held steady?

I honestly can't think of the last one. And no, Jankowski doesn't count. He hasn't been here long enough to draw any conclusions yet.

Either there is a serious problem somewhere in this organization, or the Flames have had an unbelievable run of bad luck over the last couple years.

It's disappointing for sure, but it's not really true or fair to say that unfortunately. Everybody's different regarding their physiology and how long certain people and athletes can maintain their peak or even prime performance(s).

Therefore, it must be considered that Versteeg & Brouwer may in fact possibly be regressing that quickly given physiological factors are unique and different with everybody, plus the fact that they've had a number of years before where they've performed at a much higher level than they are performing at now, as hard and as disappointing as that is to think about.

I can name 3 examples of players recently who were performing at a good or decent level not very long ago. David Jones, Niklas Hagman & Curtis Glencross.

All 3 of them now done. Hagman was done at the age of 32. Ditto for Jones & Glencross too, in fact.

Point is, not everyone is 'built to last'.

[Enoch Root]

Yes, everyone is different. And yes, some people regress as early as 31 or 32.

But to assume they would regress, or to simply dismiss their regression as normal, is premature IMO.

And when you stack it beside everything else, and then also factor in that there hasn't been a single success story in the bottom 6 in I can't remember how long, I am loath to grant that excuse too quickly.

[Karl]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, everyone is different. And yes, some people regress as early as 31 or 32.

But to assume they would regress, or to simply dismiss their regression as normal, is premature IMO.

And when you stack it beside everything else, and then also factor in that there hasn't been a single success story in the bottom 6 in I can't remember how long, I am loath to grant that excuse too quickly.

I'm not dismissing or assuming that as normal, just saying it is a scary possibility that it might be happening.