The Athletic coming to Calgary

[Resolute 14]

Lot of interesting things here. Right off the bat, one of the inherent issues of analyzing spreadsheets. How does our 93 point projection under this model both "view us as an above average team" and put us 20th out of 31 teams? These are mutually exclusive claims. His analysis of the forwards I think struggles a little because it seems to be looking only at last year to determine its player values, and that will depress both Gaudreau and Monahan, who struggled under the weight of new contracts. Likewise, the model ridiculously punishes Lazar for an injury plagued season, but at the same time, hard to make any call at all on what value he will provide. That said, it also inflates Backlund, who needs to prove that last year wasn't a one-off.

The model kills us due to goaltending, which is hard to argue at this point. At the same time, the model doesn't seem to take into account the fact that Smith and Lack will be playing behind one of the best defences in the league. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Lot of interesting things here. Right off the bat, one of the inherent issues of analyzing spreadsheets. How does our 93 point projection under this model both "view us as an above average team" and put us 20th out of 31 teams? These are mutually exclusive claims. His analysis of the forwards I think struggles a little because it seems to be looking only at last year to determine its player values, and that will depress both Gaudreau and Monahan, who struggled under the weight of new contracts. Likewise, the model ridiculously punishes Lazar for an injury plagued season, but at the same time, hard to make any call at all on what value he will provide. That said, it also inflates Backlund, who needs to prove that last year wasn't a one-off.

The model kills us due to goaltending, which is hard to argue at this point. At the same time, the model doesn't seem to take into account the fact that Smith and Lack will be playing behind one of the best defences in the league. So, ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Different ways to calculate averages - 93 points may be higher than the league average.

[8sPOT]

Have to agree with the author for the most part. Except for one glaring omission. He compares Mike Smith and Brian Elliott over 'recent' seasons, which sort of makes sense. However, he doesn't mention the fact that Arizona and St. Louis were at complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

Arizona shots against over the last 3 seasons were 34.1, 31, and 33.2.

St. Louis shots against over the same period, 27.2, 29.7, and 28.4.

If you average that out it works out to be a difference of 4.4 shots per game, or 360 shots per season. I'm no stats expert but I think that's a significant difference. Seems like it's a bit of an apples and oranges comparison as the two teams were so different. How would Brian Elliott have fared playing for the Coyotes, or vice versa?

I for one think Smith will be way better than what Elliott gave us last year. Call it a hunch.

[FBI]

I'm going to be getting annoyed over the season with all those links I can't read, aren't I?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Different ways to calculate averages - 93 points may be higher than the league average.

The mean average last year was 91.1 points but the median was 94. 20th place was 87 points, so it seems their model is also predicting that the standings tighten up. Nonetheless, the statements remain mutually exclusive, though you do explain why he created the discrepancy - he's claiming the Flames would still be above average relative to last year, but below average this year. So the conclusion we can draw from this article is that the writer expects the Flames to regress relative to the rest of the league.

[Samonadreau]

Ya not sure why people are posting links. If you have a subscriptions its pretty easy to find the article

[Ashasx]

Judging by the author's comments in the comments section, it looks like the Athletic is predicting the Oilers to finish behind the Flames.

[Resolute 14]

That is an impossibility if he expects this model to retain any sort of credibility. He's already got the Kings and Coyotes behind us as well, so if he places Edmonton seventh (!) then that also means either Vancouver or Las Vegas are predicted to be third.

Neither of those is likely, so I'm not sure what he's getting at with that comment.

[Resolute 14]

Actually, wait. He's already got Vegas 7th, Phoenix 6th, LA 5th and Calgary 4th. So if that comment has any actual meaning, he's predicting Edmonton to finish 8th? Yeah, that's not happening.

[Ashasx]

Looks like I'm just misinterpreting his comment then. He could mean then that the Oilers finish 1 spot ahead.

His reply to an Oilers fan comment saying he's happy the Flames are predicted to miss the playoffs: "Uh, please don't come back tomorrow and see who's next (sorry) ((i promise there's a reasonable explanation))"

[Resolute 14]

I don't blame you. That's the most reasonable interpretation of that comment. Unless he inexplicably saw "Oilers fan" and read "Canucks fan".

Also: Forcing people to use real names in the comments is a hell no.

[Ashasx]

Pronman placed Puljujarvi above Monahan on his top 100 players under 25 list.

[soulchoice]

Originally Posted by Barnet Flame

Well, you're in luck....

How so? I guess the reason for my statement was initially I thought I would only be able to read articles for local based sports teams. Being there is only one team that matters to me in Calgary, I figured it wouldnt be worth the cost.

Hence, I was going to sign up to the Toronto subscription instead or another city with more than one major pro sports team. Now since others have mentioned I would have access to all the articles from all cities, I would just choose whichever city is the cheapest.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Pronman placed Puljujarvi above Monahan on his top 100 players under 25 list.

Hahaha, Jesus Christ.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Pronman placed Puljujarvi above Monahan on his top 100 players under 25 list.

It's called projection. Or do you actually think Puljujarvi will be a complete bust? Puljujarvi was considered not far behind Laine and Matthews in his draft and those two look like superstars. Plenty of time for Puljujarvi to turn out.

If he wasn't using projection then Bennett shouldn't be on the list.

[Ashasx]

Obviously it's a projection. I'm not an idiot. I defend Pronman as much as anyone on this forum but Puljujarvi just finished off a really really poor season. I don't see the justification behind putting him ahead of many players on this list.

[Barnet Flame]

Originally Posted by soulchoice

How so? I guess the reason for my statement was initially I thought I would only be able to read articles for local based sports teams. Being there is only one team that matters to me in Calgary, I figured it wouldnt be worth the cost.

Hence, I was going to sign up to the Toronto subscription instead or another city with more than one major pro sports team. Now since others have mentioned I would have access to all the articles from all cities, I would just choose whichever city is the cheapest.

My post was to do with the absence of anything Stampeders related.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Obviously it's a projection. I'm not an idiot. I defend Pronman as much as anyone on this forum but Puljujarvi just finished off a really really poor season. I don't see the justification behind putting him ahead of many players on this list.

It was a poor NHL season for sure, but he had a great AHL season as an 18 year old. Albeit, only playing 39 games (0.72 pts/gm). Very similar to Nylander's 18 year old season.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

It's called projection. Or do you actually think Puljujarvi will be a complete bust? Puljujarvi was considered not far behind Laine and Matthews in his draft and those two look like superstars. Plenty of time for Puljujarvi to turn out.

If he wasn't using projection then Bennett shouldn't be on the list.

A complete bust? Pretty sure the Oilers would be over the moon if Pulijujarvi is a guy who scores 27-31 goals and ~60 points a year. That's not a bust.

Pronman is huge on skill but you have to balance out with smarts/hockey sense.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by Weitz

It was a poor NHL season for sure, but he had a great AHL season as an 18 year old. Albeit, only playing 39 games (0.72 pts/gm). Very similar to Nylander's 18 year old season.

Puljujarvi also got worse as the AHL season went on, to the point where he was being a healthy scratch.