What if Backlund is not re-signed by the trade deadline?

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Backlund provides way more value to the team than either of those players. Sometimes it's about assessing who is part of the team's motor and who isn't. Backlund is a vital piece to this team's success because he elevates everyone around him. Sure, he might regress a little skill-wise, but his hockey IQ is what makes him effective, and that won't disappear overnight.

He's definitely worth $5 million a season. The Flames would be foolish to balk at that price.

I'm very aware of Backlund's value. If you look at the stats players like Gio, Hamilton produced their most points when on the ice with Backlund. He's clearly one of their best players base on last season's play but the issue is that he's peaking too late and is still in my mind a 3rd line center on a cup winning team and you can't overpay for that kind of player. Personally I'm of the feeling if he went to free agency he's not going to get the numbers fans here seem to think the Flames should pay him.

[Love]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don't think so. A 50pt second liner signed for $5M in his 30's is not a steal. He earns the money for the ability to play against top competition but he has one season with good numbers offensively.

So 53 points in 81 games are good numbers offensively, but 47 in 82 is not?

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm very aware of Backlund's value. If you look at the stats players like Gio, Hamilton produced their most points when on the ice with Backlund. He's clearly one of their best players base on last season's play but the issue is that he's peaking too late and is still in my mind a 3rd line center on a cup winning team and you can't overpay for that kind of player. Personally I'm of the feeling if he went to free agency he's not going to get the numbers fans here seem to think the Flames should pay him.

I think this fundamentally where there is a difference of opinion. In my opinion the stats and the eye test show that he is not just a 2nd liner but a good 2nd liner.
If you indeed believe he is a 3rd line centre on a good team - then I understand why you would suggest it is overpaying.
But I think that perception of him is not accurate.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm very aware of Backlund's value. If you look at the stats players like Gio, Hamilton produced their most points when on the ice with Backlund. He's clearly one of their best players base on last season's play but the issue is that he's peaking too late and is still in my mind a 3rd line center on a cup winning team and you can't overpay for that kind of player. Personally I'm of the feeling if he went to free agency he's not going to get the numbers fans here seem to think the Flames should pay him.

Peaking late offensively doesn't bother me when we're not exactly relying on his line for it. We did this season due to both the Monahan and Bennett lines struggling to score, but that should not be the norm.

Backlund's biggest asset is his hockey IQ - not his shot, not his skating or any outstanding physical quality. Not a quality I would expect to be diminished over the next 4-5 years... in fact, the opposite.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm very aware of Backlund's value. If you look at the stats players like Gio, Hamilton produced their most points when on the ice with Backlund. He's clearly one of their best players base on last season's play but the issue is that he's peaking too late and is still in my mind a 3rd line center on a cup winning team and you can't overpay for that kind of player. Personally I'm of the feeling if he went to free agency he's not going to get the numbers fans here seem to think the Flames should pay him.

I think this is your primary error here. There are only a handful of teams on which Backlund would be cast as a third line centre and not all of them are perennial Stanley Cup competitors. Last year Backlund would have been a better option on the second line than two or three of the conference finalists and one of the SC finalists. So much of this has to do with team construction and balance, and Backlund is an ideal fit on the second line of Treliving's model for the Flames.

You are also exaggerating the arbitrary gap between 31- and 29-year-old players. While it is true that NHL forwards peak at around 27-years-old they do not tend to fall precipitously off of a cliff on their 30th birthday, unless they are especially dependant on their physicality. Backlund is a bit of a late bloomer, which is oddly not unusual for a lot of Swedish born NHLers, and he is a very cerebral player. But this also bodes well for his ability to maintain the quality of his game beyond the 30-year-old cut-off.

[Jacks]

Gotta agree that we need to stay away from a long term deal.

Capfriendly comparables for centres
29 years old, 5M x 5years
Recent signing

Top 20 matches
Name - Team - Date - Age - Contract
Soderberg, Carl COL Jun 26, 15
29 5 x $4,750,000
MacArthur, Clarke OTT Aug 19, 14
29 5 x $4,650,000
Moulson, Matt BUF Jul 1, 14
30 5 x $5,000,000
Anisimov, Artem CHI Jul 1, 15
27 5 x $4,550,000
Cammalleri, Mike NJD Jul 1, 14
32 5 x $5,000,000
Sutter, Brandon VAN Aug 4, 15
26 5 x $4,375,000
Frolik, Michael CGY Jul 1, 15
27 5 x $4,300,000
Bozak, Tyler TOR Jul 5, 13
27 5 x $4,200,000
Clowe, Ryane NJD Jul 5, 13
30 5 x $4,850,000
Filppula, Valtteri TBL Jul 5, 13
29 5 x $5,000,000
Lecavalier, Vincent PHI Jul 2, 13
33 5 x $4,500,000
Weiss, Stephen DET Jul 5, 13
30 5 x $4,900,000
Nielsen, Frans DET Jul 1, 16
32 6 x $5,250,000
Brouwer, Troy CGY Jul 1, 16
30 4 x $4,500,000
Zuccarello, Mats NYR Mar 2, 15
27 4 x $4,500,000
Grabovski, Mikhail NYI Jul 2, 14
30 4 x $5,000,000
Berglund, Patrik STL Feb 24, 17
28 5 x $3,850,000
Bolland, Dave FLA Jul 1, 14
28 5 x $5,500,000
Helm, Darren DET Jul 1, 16
29 5 x $3,850,000
Pouliot, Benoit EDM Jul 1, 14
27 5 x $4,000,000

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Love

So 53 points in 81 games are good numbers offensively, but 47 in 82 is not?

Those 2 seasons don't make a long term deal at $5M a ####ing steal

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

All horrible contracts. You see the theme here?

Why have you not been beating the trade Backlund drum then?

I posted the thread right around the end of the season and it was almost universally panned

[Love]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Those 2 seasons don't make a long term deal at $5M a ####ing steal

Well, purely from a numbers standpoint, those are borderline first line center production (think he was 36th among C scoring last season / 31'st in C scoring in the last 2)

Not to mention a defensive horse / best pk'er

Not to mention he doesn't get time on the first pp unit

Not to mention he starts all his shifts in the d-zone

Not to mention he's a UFA and on the open market he'd be getting upwards of 6.5M

So yeah, that's a ####ing steal.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Love

Well, purely from a numbers standpoint, those are borderline first line center production (think he was 36th among C scoring last season)

Not to mention a defensive horse / best pk'er

Not to mention he doesn't get time on the first pp unit

Not to mention he starts all his shifts in the d-zone

Not to mention he's a UFA and on the open market he'd be getting upwards of 6.5M

So yeah, that's a ####ing steal.

35th, with 3 primarily wingers listed in front of him. Not sure how you can realistically refer to Backlund as a 3rd liner.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Seems like some hyperbole there. Monahan, Bennett, Jankowski, Lazar and Stajan is quite obviously better than Vegas's centres. I think I'd take them over VAN as well.

I'm all for keeping Backlund but let's not make it out like the other guys are scrubs.

Come on dude - you're just being obtuse here. Obviously I wouldn't be including Vegas in that comment. Is there really any value in comparing our centres to the two worst teams in the NHL?

The idea here is to have a good team. If our collection of Cs is worse than ANA, SJS, EDM an LAK then we suck.

And if we trade Backlund for a winger, then our C depth is worse than all those teams.

VGK and VAN are irrelevant.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm very aware of Backlund's value. If you look at the stats players like Gio, Hamilton produced their most points when on the ice with Backlund. He's clearly one of their best players base on last season's play but the issue is that he's peaking too late and is still in my mind a 3rd line center on a cup winning team and you can't overpay for that kind of player. Personally I'm of the feeling if he went to free agency he's not going to get the numbers fans here seem to think the Flames should pay him.

lol

Backlund is a great 2nd line C. He is not, in any way shape or form, a 3rd line C.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

lol

Backlund is a great 2nd line C. He is not, in any way shape or form, a 3rd line C.

Good would be a better word, last season was the first time in his career he got into the top 40 in points for a center, calling him "great" after one very good year is severe homer-ism.

Nobody is say'in he's not a very good player on this team, the question is has he peaked and how much is too much for him at 29 years old?

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Good would be a better word, last season was the first time in his career he got into the top 40 in points for a center, calling him "great" after one very good year is severe homer-ism.

It's not homerism. He centered one of the most elite possession lines in the entire league.

[GioforPM]

I see Backlund as Kesler, but younger, with a few less points, and obviously way less dirty. And Kesler is making a whole lot of money in a contract he signed what, 2 or 3 years ago at about age 30-31?

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I see Backlund as Kesler, but younger, with a few less points, and obviously way less dirty. And Kesler is making a whole lot of money in a contract he signed what, 2 or 3 years ago at about age 30-31?

Similar stats to Backlund leading up to when he signed his contract 2 summers ago. 6 years x 6.875 million.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

It's not homerism. He centered one of the most elite possession lines in the entire league.

It's still one year, do you have the fancy charts from previous years?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Similar stats to Backlund leading up to when he signed his contract 2 summers ago. 6 years x 6.875 million.

And if that's what he's looking for, he can't be signed. Treliving needs to put on his wizarding hat.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Similar stats to Backlund leading up to when he signed his contract 2 summers ago. 6 years x 6.875 million.

Kesler also is a former 40 goal scorer so while he had similar seasons leading up to the trade his entire body of work was far better than Backlund.

Similar to Ottawa and Bobby Ryan the Ducks were obligated to keep Kesler considering they gave up quality assets to acquire him

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I see Backlund as Kesler, but younger, with a few less points, and obviously way less dirty. And Kesler is making a whole lot of money in a contract he signed what, 2 or 3 years ago at about age 30-31?

Not even close, as much as I can't stand him, Kesler is twice the center than Backlund is, Kesler trumps Backlund bigtime in scoring,hits and faceoffs. plus all the other stuff!