Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

...and no one expect RNH, Eberle and Pouliot to score a combined 0 goals in the playoffs

Originally Posted by New Era

Really? That was my expectation.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

For the record, this is exactly what I expected to occur.

LOL: Gee, who could have predicted two of the softest forwards in the NHL who'd never played in the post-season ever, would wilt in the POs?

Or that a guy with 67 PO games but only 6 goals (and 5 of those in one unrepresentative year) wouldn't score? before last year, and outside of his year with the Rangers (who went to the finals), Pouliot played 29 PO games and had one goal.

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

McDavid? Draisaitl? Klefbom? Letestu?

Sekera, Kassian, and Larson did not have career years, but they each experienced a substantial improvement on their last seasons and career average production.

While McDavid is certainly capable of 100 points once again, this number has become such a rarity that I don't believe it is a given that he will hit it.

how can we possibly say McDavid, Draisaitl or Klefbom had their career seasons after only 2 years?
I guess Gaudreau had his career season 2 years ago then? same with Monahan?
better lump Backlund, Frolik and Hamilton....all 3 had career seasons...with Oiler players then

Originally Posted by Textcritic

No, but what IS "an Oiler thing" is expecting an improved result regardless of what happens, and failing to account for the contributing factors of prior success that are almost certain to not re-occur.

It will be delicious to watch the Flames mangle the Oilers this year, and I look forward to your whiney excuses when this paper tiger with no depth team is unceremoniously trounced out of the playoffs.

Edmonton is no good, and neither are your posts.

lol...Flames will need to toughen up, hope Smith doesn't crumble or blame his defense like he's prone to do, and tighten up that amazing D as to not let McDavid have a few breakaways like he did last year...
because we saw what a "deep" Flames team looks like...and what a "2-player" Oilers team looks like

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I guess he dropped the Duck series argument then?

small sample size is small

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

small sample size is small

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

how can we possibly say McDavid, Draisaitl or Klefbom had their career seasons after only 2 years?
I guess Gaudreau had his career season 2 years ago then? same with Monahan?

Because that's the friggin' definition of "career season". It's the best season of their career to date. Yes, it means more for a guy who's been in the league for a while, but it's a literal fact that those players had career years last year, and expecting them to improve on it might be a little optimistic. If you get them to MATCH their career years, then you should be happy.

So yes, I'll grant you that Gaudreau and Monahan had their career years 2 seasons ago. It will stand as such until they can prove they can do it again, or improve upon it. You should probably take the same position.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

small sample size is small

Were you planning on petitioning the league to allow the Oilers to play 14 game series next year so you can get a better sample of getting out played?

The series is defined as 7 games, the Oilers were out played in essentially all of them by any metric other than final score in three of the games.

But you're right, if they let your club just keep on playing playoff games until they out play someone you'd have a bigger sample size.

Funny how you weren't all that worried about sample size when you were listing the instances of two goal leads and leads in 5 of 7 games.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

how can we possibly say McDavid, Draisaitl or Klefbom had their career seasons after only 2 years?

This is literally what the term means.

I guess Gaudreau had his career season 2 years ago then? same with Monahan?

better lump Backlund, Frolik and Hamilton....all 3 had career seasons...with Oiler players then

Yes. But the big difference here is in context: in a year in which a high number of the Oilers top players had career years, they made the playoffs. In the same year in which a few of the Flames top players suffered setbacks, they made the playoffs. Which instance do you see as more likely to repeat?

[Realistic]

Won't be long until AlbertaOiler72 starts making excuses! September is just around the corner, and that brings training camps and pre-season.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

lol...Flames will need to toughen up, hope Smith doesn't crumble or blame his defense like he's prone to do, and tighten up that amazing D as to not let McDavid have a few breakaways like he did last year...

because we saw what a "deep" Flames team looks like...and what a "2-player" Oilers team looks like

"Team toughness." How very 1997 of you.

I think it is laughable that you are content with Edmonton's performance as a gauge to future success against the Flames last season at a time when their defense consisted of:

Giordano — Hamilton
Brodie — Wideman
Jokipakka / Grossman — Engelland

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Realistic

Won't be long until AlbertaOiler72 starts making excuses! September is just around the corner, and that brings training camps and pre-season.

No he'll just vanish again, probably for a few years when things get really bad and the Oilers salary cap structure strangles them into oblivion.

Then he'll pop back again when the Oilers have a rare stint of decent with the "Hey surry guys, I got busy derp" excuse.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

lol...Flames will need to toughen up, hope Smith doesn't crumble or blame his defense like he's prone to do, and tighten up that amazing D as to not let McDavid have a few breakaways like he did last year...
because we saw what a "deep" Flames team looks like...and what a "2-player" Oilers team looks like

Oh good god, its just like an Oilers fan to live in the past.

You can't argue that the Flames have not improved their blueline over last year, massively.

You can't argue that Smith while playing for a tremendously bad Arizona team had good goaltending stats especially when it came from making saves on chances from the danger area.

You can't argue that the departure of Eberle for Strome (who's been god awful for a long while) and the loss of Sekera makes the Oilers weaker.

you do understand that a blueline that has Brodie, Hamilton, Gio, Hamonic and Stone alone is far better then a blueline of Bridie, Hamilton, Gio Engelland ond some other disposable yeoman that the Oilers faced last time.

You can gloat all you want about the Oilers sweeping the Flames last year, but based on a 10 year curve, its probably a fluke caused by circumstances
Hey I have to wonder, is McDavid going to vanish again when the going gets tough? What's are Oiler fans going to do when Doctor 8.5 struggles? Boo him out of the building.

Its going to be an exciting season, chances are that the pacific is going to be a 4 horse race with Anaheim and Calgary and Edmonton and maybe San Jose (I'm not sold on them yet).

But I wonder? Will Edmonton choke on their expectations, you know everyone predicting Stanley Cup Glory, and if things go poorly at the start, does T-Mac do what T-Mac does best, fall apart and choke?

But hey the good news is that Chia doesn't have anymore contracts to sign this season, so he can't screw up the Oilers cap structure anymore, at least for a little while.

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Were you planning on petitioning the league to allow the Oilers to play 14 game series next year so you can get a better sample of getting out played?

The series is defined as 7 games, the Oilers were out played in essentially all of them by any metric other than final score in three of the games.

But you're right, if they let your club just keep on playing playoff games until they out play someone you'd have a bigger sample size.

Funny how you weren't all that worried about sample size when you were listing the instances of two goal leads and leads in 5 of 7 games.

...and Pittsburgh lost every fancy metric except for one, yet won the Cup because they won the most important "stat"...the scoreboard battle

but I'm sure Nashville takes solace in the fact they won the corsi battle against Pittburgh

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by Bingo

a) Oilers at 43.9% CF%

b) Simple shots for they averaged only 41% through the 7 games

c) 44.6% in scoring chances through the 7 games

d) 45.8% in high danger scoring chances through the 7 games



a) Penguins 45% CF%

b) Penguins 46% shots

c) Penguins 47% scoring chances

d) Penguins 53% high danger scoring chances



So up on the Oilers in every category, and especially in high danger where they dominated.



Penguins certainly rely on the top of their roster ... goaltending to stop everything basic, and their big boys up front to bury chances

This actually worsens AO72's case even more. Despite having worse advanced stats than the Preds the Penguins were able to win on the back of excellent goaltending. Talbot was just as good in round 2 as Murray was in round 4. Why did the Penguins win and the Oilers not? Because Pittsburgh does not have one of the worst defensive corps in the league and have better secondary scoring as well. Unless Talbot can maintain elite level play all season, I fail to see where the Oilers made any improvements over last year. Especially to their defense, with Sekera likely out until after Christmas.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

...and Pittsburgh lost every fancy metric except for one, yet won the Cup because they won the most important "stat"...the scoreboard battle

but I'm sure Nashville takes solace in the fact they won the corsi battle against Pittburgh

well the one is pretty damn important, and they were better than the Oilers on every front.

they won the cup because they have an elite goaltender and two stud forwards, so in that vain you can take hope because the Oilers may have each of those players as well.

but getting outplayed throughout the playoffs isn't a recipe for any team looking to win, I don't think following that model is a smart course.

Here are the top five and bottom five from the playoffs

Corsi
1. Minny
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Habs
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Penguins
14. Rangers
13. Oilers
12. Sharks

Penguins an aberration, other teams out in 1st or 2nd round

Shots
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Ducks
5. Flames

16. Oilers
15. Blues
14. Penguins
13. Bruins
12. Senators

once again Penguins the exception

Scoring Chances
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Habs
4. Flames
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Hawks
14. Senators
13. Penguins
12. Oilers

Oilers make another notorious list

High danger scoring chances
1. Wild
2. Leafs
3. Habs
4. Rangers
5. Flames

16. Jackets
15. Blues
14. Senators
13. Oilers
12. Bruins

Flames make top 5 three times, Oilers make bottom 5 all 4 times.

This is pretty clear stuff, stop drinking the Koolaid.

[Love]

Originally Posted by Bingo

well the one is pretty damn important, and they were better than the Oilers on every front.

they won the cup because they have an elite goaltender and two stud forwards, so in that vain you can take hope because the Oilers may have each of those players as well.

but getting outplayed throughout the playoffs isn't a recipe for any team looking to win, I don't think following that model is a smart course.

Here are the top five and bottom five from the playoffs

Corsi
1. Minny
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Habs
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Penguins
14. Rangers
13. Oilers
12. Sharks

Penguins an aberration, other teams out in 1st or 2nd round

Shots
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Ducks
5. Flames

16. Oilers
15. Blues
14. Penguins
13. Bruins
12. Senators

once again Penguins the exception

Scoring Chances
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Habs
4. Flames
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Hawks
14. Senators
13. Penguins
12. Oilers

Oilers make another notorious list

High danger scoring chances
1. Wild
2. Leafs
3. Habs
4. Rangers
5. Flames

16. Jackets
15. Blues
14. Senators
13. Oilers
12. Bruins

Flames make top 5 three times, Oilers make bottom 5 all 4 times.

This is pretty clear stuff, stop drinking the Koolaid.

Calgary has the better roster, Edmonton has the better goalie.

If Mike Smith can give up upwards of a .917sv% we're going to be in for a very fun season

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You can't argue that the Flames have not improved their blueline over last year, massively.

Travis Hamonic? I like him for his character and toughness but not much of a puck mover...and was a -21 last year on a decent Isles team

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You can't argue that Smith while playing for a tremendously bad Arizona team had good goaltending stats especially when it came from making saves on chances from the danger area.

Smith has had very mediocre stats, is old and a hot-head...can't wait to see him lose his mind the second a defender makes a mistake

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You can't argue that the departure of Eberle for Strome (who's been god awful for a long while) and the loss of Sekera makes the Oilers weaker.

Sekera? sure...he'll be missed, but for how long? no one knows
Eberle? certainly not if last year is any indication...Strome only had 7 less goals in 12 less games
Strome has 11 ES goals in 69 games
Eberle had 16 ES goals in 82 games
not a massive drop-off even if Strome doesn't improve

the good thing about Strome is he's versatile as a natural center

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

you do understand that a blueline that has Brodie, Hamilton, Gio, Hamonic and Stone alone is far better then a blueline of Bridie, Hamilton, Gio Engelland ond some other disposable yeoman that the Oilers faced last time.

you're only adding Hamonic to a team that got swept in the playoffs and finished the year 5-7 after the 10-game win streak
time will tell if that's enough to put the Flames ahead

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

You can gloat all you want about the Oilers sweeping the Flames last year, but based on a 10 year curve, its probably a fluke caused by circumstances
Hey I have to wonder, is McDavid going to vanish again when the going gets tough? What's are Oiler fans going to do when Doctor 8.5 struggles? Boo him out of the building.

don't worry, Drai will pick him up...remember?

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But I wonder? Will Edmonton choke on their expectations, you know everyone predicting Stanley Cup Glory, and if things go poorly at the start, does T-Mac do what T-Mac does best, fall apart and choke?

remember when Joel Quennville had the "choke" label with his time in St. Louis and Colorado?
now he's considered one of the best coaches in the NHL

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

But hey the good news is that Chia doesn't have anymore contracts to sign this season, so he can't screw up the Oilers cap structure anymore, at least for a little while.

I'll take my chances with a Cup winner thank you very much...all this guy does is win hockey games

[SuperMatt18]

Looks at Bingo's post.

Watches the goals Elliot let in during that series.

Proceeds to start throwing things.

[AlbertaOiler72]

Originally Posted by Bingo

well the one is pretty damn important, and they were better than the Oilers on every front.

they won the cup because they have an elite goaltender and two stud forwards, so in that vain you can take hope because the Oilers may have each of those players as well.

but getting outplayed throughout the playoffs isn't a recipe for any team looking to win, I don't think following that model is a smart course.

Here are the top five and bottom five from the playoffs

Corsi
1. Minny
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Habs
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Penguins
14. Rangers
13. Oilers
12. Sharks

Penguins an aberration, other teams out in 1st or 2nd round

best Corsi: Minny, CBJ, Habs...all bounced in the first round
worst Corsi: Blues, Pens, Oilers...all win a round
this proves what? how unpreditable theses stats are?

Originally Posted by Bingo

Shots
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Jackets
4. Ducks
5. Flames

16. Oilers
15. Blues
14. Penguins
13. Bruins
12. Senators

once again Penguins the exception

Best "shots" teams: Wild, Jackets, Flames....bounced in round 1
Worst "shots" teams: Oilers, Blues, Pens and Sens...all advanced past round 1

unpredictable

Originally Posted by Bingo

Scoring Chances
1. Wild
2. Caps
3. Habs
4. Flames
5. Predators

16. Blues
15. Hawks
14. Senators
13. Penguins
12. Oilers

Best scoring chances: Wild, Habs, Flames...bounced round 1
worst scoring chances: Blues, Sens, Pens and Oilers...all past round 1

once again, un-pre-dict-a-ble

Originally Posted by Bingo

Oilers make another notorious list

High danger scoring chances
1. Wild
2. Leafs
3. Habs
4. Rangers
5. Flames

16. Jackets
15. Blues
14. Senators
13. Oilers
12. Bruins

all teams from this top 5 bounced in round 1
Worst high danger scoring chanes teams: Blues, Sens, Oilers...all advanced past round 1
this prove what?

Originally Posted by Bingo

Flames make top 5 three times, Oilers make bottom 5 all 4 times.

This is pretty clear stuff, stop drinking the Koolaid.

the only thing these stats tell me is that these stats are wildly unpredictable due to small sample size

Flames make the top 5 so many times cause they only played 4 games....ridiculously small sample size

but someone please give Minny the Advanced Stats Cup

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

the only thing these stats tell me is that these stats are wildly unpredictable due to small sample size

Flames make the top 5 so many times cause they only played 4 games....ridiculously small sample size

As I said you were cool with quoting lead stats from 7 games, so sample size didn't bother you in the least.

I get it though, they don't fit your narrative.

Cool with me though, walk down Spector lane with the Oilers will be measured by a conference final birth or the season is a failure. The best of the unwashed will incorporate some of this stuff though, as it's a pretty good barometer to actually what went down in the playoffs. Sample size is two playoff rounds, and if you're routinely getting out shot, out chanced and hemmed in playoff game after playoff game then what you really have is a hot goaltender and not "the run" as it's been coined in Edmonton.

Your call though.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by AlbertaOiler72

best Corsi: Minny, CBJ, Habs...all bounced in the first round
worst Corsi: Blues, Pens, Oilers...all win a round
this proves what? how unpreditable theses stats are?


Best "shots" teams: Wild, Jackets, Flames....bounced in round 1
Worst "shots" teams: Oilers, Blues, Pens and Sens...all advanced past round 1

unpredictable


Best scoring chances: Wild, Habs, Flames...bounced round 1
worst scoring chances: Blues, Sens, Pens and Oilers...all past round 1

once again, un-pre-dict-a-ble


all teams from this top 5 bounced in round 1
Worst high danger scoring chanes teams: Blues, Sens, Oilers...all advanced past round 1
this prove what?



the only thing these stats tell me is that these stats are wildly unpredictable due to small sample size

Flames make the top 5 so many times cause they only played 4 games....ridiculously small sample size

but someone please give Minny the Advanced Stats Cup