Edmonton is No Good Episode 4: New Rink, Same Stink

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

Not to mention mental fatigue. I would argue that losing focus leads to more goals against that physical fatigue.

When great goalies let in softies, it's probably a sign of mental fatigue. Think of all the playoff marathons where the winning goal comes on some nothing play after a goalie has made five superhuman saves.

I could tell when Kiprusoff was beginning to get mentally fried. Goals would go in at weird angles, at odd times, and he looked like he couldn't explain what had happened.

What happened was, he needed a night off. And the 'if it were up to him, he'd play all 82' is BS - that's what coaches are there for. I'm sure Engelland would've loved playing 25 minutes a night. He can't be allowed to do that.

Goalies can't be allowed to start 70 games - it's a glaring weakness when they do.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

...Why would a goaltender be more fatigued than a 25+ minute defenseman or a 20+ minute forward?...

I'm not sure why it would affect a goalie any more then players though. And I don't think there is any proof that fatigue can have an effect across multiple seasons. These guys do get months off to rest. Even the guys that win the Cup.

Did anyone here at any point suggest that goalies are more or less susceptible to fatigue than forwards and defensemen?

That is sure as hell not my argument, and as far as I can tell is completely irrelevant to the topic in question.

My point is that when two goalies are facing off against one another in a playoff series, the advantage will go to the goalie who is both finely tuned and less fatigued. I see a starting goalie's workload through the full season as a ramping-up point to hit his peak for the Stanley Cup Finals in June. The numbers rather strongly suggest that that peak is around the Game 75–85 mark.

[Oil Stain]

So you guys would make the argument that its better to get injured 3-4 times over a season than it is to play a high volume of games?

Matt Murray suffered a broken hand and missed the month of October.

Then he got injured at the end of December and missed two weeks.

Then he suffered a possible concussion and missed a couple of games.

And then he got injured right at the end of the regular season and missed a month of playoffs.

And then won the Cup.

If we go by results then there is a serious argument to make that if you want to win the cup you have to get a goalie injury.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Cam Talbot was obviously not as good in round 2 as he played in round 1—that much is fairly indisputable: he was pretty much worse by every metric than in the previous round, and allowed four or more goals against in three games. Would you not agree that fatigue appears to be a contributing factor for this difference?

To my eye, the fact that he played much better in round 1 than he did in the regular season with a lower SA/min avg., combined with his poorer performance against a much higher SA/min in round 2 is a pretty strong indicator that fatigue was in fact an issue for Talbot; one that was likely more manageable had he not played in his 80th game by the start of the second round.

Or its just things happening. Both of Talbot's series were better than his regular season numbers.......

Kiprusoff let in the most goals in his big playoff run during the first playoff round against the Canucks. If the Flames had scored as much in other first rounds afterwards as they did in that one, they probably would have gotten out of the first round another couple of times.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I see a starting goalie's workload through the full season as a ramping-up point to hit his peak for the Stanley Cup Finals in June. The numbers rather strongly suggest that that peak is around the Game 75–85 mark.

I haven't seen any numbers crunched on this.

I do notice that two guys that regularly played 70+ games in the regular season Luongo and Brodeur have playoff stats that are just as good or better than their regular season stats.

There should be a noticeable drop off in playoffs if your theory is correct.

You have to take every goalie that played 70+ games and compare their playoff numbers to regular season. That's really the only way to know for certain.

I don't think you will see any difference.

[John Doe]

I don't think some people (ahem...Oiler fans) appreciate the workload of Talbot last year. He played in 73 games and faced 2117 shots.

I looked through the teams that have won at least one round in the playoffs back to the 2011/12 season. Only two goalies from those teams have played in as many games in the regular season as Talbot did last season (Holtby in 2014/15 and Rinne in 2011/12). And only Rinne faced as many shots (who by the way went from a 9.23 sv% to 9.10 the next year and 9.02 the year after).

This is of course a small sample size but I am far too lazy to go back any further, however I would also like to point out that, for all his accomplishments, Brodeur faced as many regular season shots than Talbot did last year only one time in his career (2006/07).

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

There have been ZERO instances of a team with a reigning Rocket Richard Winner on the team winning the Cup.



Stay away from them goal scorers on your team.

Yeah, an award that's been around less than 20 years. That's the same.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I haven't seen any numbers crunched on this.

I do notice that two guys that regularly played 70+ games in the regular season Luongo and Brodeur have playoff stats that are just as good or better than their regular season stats.

There should be a noticeable drop off in playoffs if your theory is correct.

You have to take every goalie that played 70+ games and compare their playoff numbers to regular season. That's really the only way to know for certain.

I don't think you will see any difference.

You continue to either ignore or are not correctly comprehending what I am saying. And yes, there was a noticeable change in some of Talbot's numbers from last year's playoffs. His GAA roster sharply in round two thanks in part to three games in which he allowed at least four goals.

Again, my point is not that a goalie's performance will diminish over time in the course of a season, it is that beyond a threshold of around 75–85 games a goalie is likely to be less sharp than he was up to that point.

But as usual I expect you to continue to plug your ears and pretend that everything is perfect. You will continue to assert that Cam Talbot can be counted on to play every game for the Oilers from here until 2025, and they will undoubtedly win multiple cups on the back of his other-worldly capacity for a massive workload. He's special—it shouldn't be held against him that virtually every other NHL team restricts their starter's workload to 65 regular season games or less.

Because Oilers.

[MisterJoji]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

So you guys would make the argument that its better to get injured 3-4 times over a season than it is to play a high volume of games?



Matt Murray suffered a broken hand and missed the month of October.



Then he got injured at the end of December and missed two weeks.



Then he suffered a possible concussion and missed a couple of games.



And then he got injured right at the end of the regular season and missed a month of playoffs.



And then won the Cup.



If we go by results then there is a serious argument to make that if you want to win the cup you have to get a goalie injury.

Wow man, you are really reaching now aren't you? Obviously no one here is advocating for injuries, merely to have a reliable backup that prevents your starter from getting fatigued with too many starts. Was a good try though.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

So you guys would make the argument that its better to get injured 3-4 times over a season than it is to play a high volume of games?

Matt Murray suffered a broken hand and missed the month of October.

Then he got injured at the end of December and missed two weeks.

Then he suffered a possible concussion and missed a couple of games.

And then he got injured right at the end of the regular season and missed a month of playoffs.

And then won the Cup.

If we go by results then there is a serious argument to make that if you want to win the cup you have to get a goalie injury.

And Matt Murray had MAF to back him up - who does Talbot have? No MAF that's for sure.

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by MisterJoji

Yeah, an award that's been around less than 20 years. That's the same.

Also, the chance of the team with the reigning Richard winner winning the cup is 1/31, so statistically it's not even "due" yet.

Only one team has a Richard winner. Every team has a goalie.

What a laughably bad counterargument.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Again, my point is not that a goalie's performance will diminish over time in the course of a season, it is that beyond a threshold of around 75–85 games a goalie is likely to be less sharp than he was up to that point.

Then prove it. Thats a very specific threshold if you are just pulling numbers out of nowhere.

Compare games played after 75 games to all those before and see if save percentage drops.

I doubt it. Like Talbot. His second round was better than his regular season.

I believe if a goalie plays 100 games in a season and you break it into 10 game sections it will be pretty random which segment will be the best and which will be the worst.

[getbak]

Crosby won the Richard Trophy this season. I seem to recall his team doing pretty well in the playoffs.


Also, if you go back before the trophy was created, the NHL leading goal scorer was on the Cup Champ a few times over the years. Gretzky, Bossy, Lafleur, Shutt, Esposito, etc.


It has definitely happened more than a goalie who played 70+ games winning the Cup.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Then prove it. Thats a very specific threshold if you are just pulling numbers out of nowhere.



Compare games played after 75 games to all those before and see if save percentage drops...

I am not that energetic, but I am willing to project from the FACT that an overwhelming majority of NHL goalies undergo time management to limit them to around 65 regular season games to argue that I am likely correct.

You have yet to explain why it is that so many NHL teams in the past decade have seen fit to set these sorts of limits on their starting goalies. If playing 70 games in a season is no problem for a NHL goalie, then why does it not occur more frequently?

To put this another way: between 1995–2006 there were 36 individual campaigns in which goalies played at least 70 games. That is a 3.6 per year average. Since then there have been 31, for an average of 2.82. But in the past five full seasons there have been only seven, with three of those occurring together in 2011–12. Like it or not, there is an irrefutable trend towards fewer games for starting goalies. Do you honestly believe that this is just a random occurrence? I am betting that NHL coaches and managers are convinced that a goalie's workload is a matter of critical importance.

[Since1984]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I haven't seen any numbers crunched on this.

I do notice that two guys that regularly played 70+ games in the regular season Luongo and Brodeur have playoff stats that are just as good or better than their regular season stats.

There should be a noticeable drop off in playoffs if your theory is correct.

You have to take every goalie that played 70+ games and compare their playoff numbers to regular season. That's really the only way to know for certain.

I don't think you will see any difference.

Wow...you are literally pulling out two of the greatest work horse Goalies of the past 35 years and expect us to side with you? Both of those goalies are future Hall of Famers.

If we look at the average to above average goaltender in NHL stats over the past 30 years you will see that non-Hall of Fame goaltenders tend to slide statistically after starting more than 70+ games in said season. It is both a mental and physical fatigue issue setting in.

Sure Cam Talbot is a great goalie....but lets not start throwing comparisons around to greatness like Oiler's Fans do.

Oh wait........

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

To put this another way...

And for added emphasis, consider this:

Cam Talbot's 4,294:00 mins played in the 2016-17 regular season was the highest total in seven years since Cam Ward played 4,317:35 in 2010–11.

How can you pretend this is not an issue?

[Robbob]

Simply because Talbot uses sleep as a weapon. Remenda went on quite a long time about it. Clearly that is the difference.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Simply because Talbot uses sleep as a weapon. Remenda went on quite a long time about it. Clearly that is the difference.

I mean if anyone would know, Remenda would know!

[OmegaV4]

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/2...monton-oilers/

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by OmegaV4

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/2...monton-oilers/

Two words describe that article by Spectre - epic suckage!