Political Junkies: Predictions for U.S. Mid-Terms? - Page 11 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

octothorp · 11-07-2006, 07:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nehkara

Democrats need:

8 more Senate seats for a majority.

112 more House seats for a majority.

4 more Governor seats for a majority.

I don't think they're gonna make it in the senate. They're behind in virginia, tennessee, and missouri, and they need to pick up at least two of those as well as either montana or arizona.

octothorp · 11-07-2006, 09:26 PM

Dems win the house. Senate still close...

At 90% reporting, Allen had a 30 thousand vote lead over Webb. Now with 94% reporting, the lead has shrunk to 10 thousand. Could be the tightest one of the night.

Now 98% and the lead is down to 7 thousand.

Now 99% and Webb is leading by 3000!

Nehkara · 11-07-2006, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by octothorp

Dems win the house. Senate still close...

At 90% reporting, Allen had a 30 thousand vote lead over Webb. Now with 94% reporting, the lead has shrunk to 10 thousand. Could be the tightest one of the night.

Now 98% and the lead is down to 7 thousand.

Now 99% and Webb is leading by 3000!

Webb in Virginia, McCaskill in Missouri, and Tester in Montana could win the senate for the democrats!

Nehkara · 11-07-2006, 11:03 PM

Webb (Dem) leading by 8132 votes. (99% reporting)
McCaskill (Dem) wins!
Tester (Dem) leading by 1729 votes. (99% reporting)

If the Democrats hold all three seats, they will win the majority in the Senate. If so, the Democrats will hold the majority of governor seats, house seats, and senate seats.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 11-08-2006, 12:07 AM

I hate to jinx it by speaking to soon--but to echo James Carville, I'd rather be the democrats right now. They look to be coasting to a pretty comfortable majority in the House, and are now leading in all 3 remaining Senate races, albeit narrowly. Here's my take:

Webb will win. Apparently, 34,000 absentee ballots from Fairfax county remain to be counted, which will give him approximately a 60% edge--so another 20,000-ish addition to the current margin.

McCaskill will win. The votes that remain to be counted are from St. Louis, where she will likely rack up big margins.

Tester currently leads, but only half of the precincts are in. If it were a landslide it would have been called already, so my guess is that some Burns-heavy districts haven't been counted yet. I'm not totally confident in this one, but so far a fairly good vindication of the 50% rule I mentioned earlier. If the Dems win Montana, it's game, set and match.

Displaced Flames fan · 11-08-2006, 12:13 AM

Looking over the county by county votes in Montana, they swing wildly between the two. Some 60+ for Tester, others that way for Burns.

Tester leads by 14,000+...that's pretty significant in a state with less than a million people.

I'm calling it for Tester.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 11-08-2006, 12:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Looking over the county by county votes in Montana, they swing wildly between the two. Some 60+ for Tester, others that way for Burns.

Tester leads by 14,000+...that's pretty significant in a state with less than a million people.

I'm calling it for Tester.

I'm also hearing on BBC that Jim Talent has conceded in Missouri to Claire McCaskill.

That just leaves Virginia--and though I wouldn't bet money, I think Webb is on his way to a recount-proof victory.

Displaced Flames fan · 11-08-2006, 12:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I'm also hearing on BBC that Jim Talent has conceded in Missouri to Claire McCaskill.

That just leaves Virginia--and though I wouldn't bet money, I think Webb is on his way to a recount-proof victory.

I wouldn't bet on Tester either, but I wanted to spice up the conversation with a bold prediction.

Yellowstone County hasn't come in...that could go big for Burns and is the only county in the state with over 100,000 people.

Still, I think Tester will have enough to get it done. He should do well in Missoula and Gallatin counties which are both pretty populous, relatively speaking of course.

Displaced Flames fan · 11-08-2006, 12:25 AM

Now, are the democrats capable of actually choosing an electable candidate for President in '08?

I used to think Hillary was electable....I'm not so sure anymore. Obama hasn't committed and actually hasn't really given any indication that he's seriously considering it.

They'd better nominate the right person this time...because you know the GOP WILL.

Displaced Flames fan · 11-08-2006, 12:28 AM

Tester with an early 2 point lead in Yellowstone County, home county of Conrad Burns.

Overall lead has been cut in half though.

This one could go either way.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 11-08-2006, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Now, are the democrats capable of actually choosing an electable candidate for President in '08?

I don't know. Clinton isn't the right choice, IMO. That is, unless they think they can duplicate the Karl Rove strategy of mobilizing the base and ignoring the middle. Otherwise, she's too polarizing (through no fault of her own) and won't be able to attract enough independents to win the election in those swing states.

Obama could be a great choice--though I worry he's too young.

Iowa_Flames_Fan · 11-08-2006, 01:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Tester with an early 2 point lead in Yellowstone County, home county of Conrad Burns.

Overall lead has been cut in half though.

This one could go either way.

I just heard that Yellowstone county ballots will be recounted. This could take a while. Anybody got a Snickers bar??

Nehkara · 11-08-2006, 06:57 AM

This is the state of things folks... 99% reporting, Webb has opened up a lead of 8132 votes in Virginia.

Tester is still holding on with a slim lead of 1729 votes in Montana with 99% reporting.

Cowperson · 11-08-2006, 08:11 AM

For interest, a compendium of analytical links and reaction in this "Media Notes" column by Howard Kurtz in the Washington Post today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...041100587.html

Cowperson

JohnnyFlame · 11-08-2006, 08:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Displaced Flames fan

Now, are the democrats capable of actually choosing an electable candidate for President in '08?

I used to think Hillary was electable....I'm not so sure anymore. Obama hasn't committed and actually hasn't really given any indication that he's seriously considering it.

They'd better nominate the right person this time...because you know the GOP WILL.

Seeing as how I could really care less who is in the most interesting thing I saw was an Obama interview.

He was asked about IRAQ(duh no kidding) and said paraphrasically that he was for bringing the troops home but realized that wasn't a smart move unless done exceedingly carefully and felt it was more important to be constructive. Next out of this mouth was ---yep wait for it -- can you guess? -- the BAKER plan. Yep it's not just some boys sitting around in a think tank. This is looking more and more like what Bush will be presented with and it's going to have support from his own party and from the top Democrats as well.

mykalberta · 11-08-2006, 08:39 AM

Looking at the ridings - Montana could shift with enough votes for Conrad but it will be close.

The fact that its his home riding might win it for him but 17XX is alot of ballots to make up.

I personally hope the Republicans hold the Senate, in the US its never good to have one part control both houses no matter what party it is.

I am thankful that there are stark differences between the two right of centre parties in Canada and the US. I am as right as you get without owning a gun and I would have a difficult time voting for the Republicans as a part because of the constant big biz money racket. If I was down there I would probably be voting more for the candidate than the party.

If Tester does win in Montana, I would give it less than a year before a complete exodus from Iraq. Personally I would like to see 6 months but.

Does anyone know, what needs to be done to get troops from exiting Iraq. Since its no longer a "wartime" act over there can an act of Congress get the troops out? I know the Prez is Commander and Chief of the US military but the Military oversight comitees and such close bases all the time, is Iraq now considered a "military base" that can be closed?

MYK

Agamemnon · 11-08-2006, 08:40 AM

Tony Snow said that Bush had rejected the Baker partition plan on October 20th. Tony said the idea of paritioning Iraq was a 'non-starter'.

"We've thought about partition, for a series of reasons," but Mr. Bush has categorically rejected the idea of breaking Iraq into regions, Mr. Snow said in reply to questions about an article in The Washington Times.

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20...5632-5191r.htm

FlamingLonghorn · 11-08-2006, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JohnnyFlame

Seeing as how I could really care less who is in the most interesting thing I saw was an Obama interview.

He was asked about IRAQ(duh no kidding) and said paraphrasically that he was for bringing the troops home but realized that wasn't a smart move unless done exceedingly carefully and felt it was more important to be constructive. Next out of this mouth was ---yep wait for it -- can you guess? -- the BAKER plan. Yep it's not just some boys sitting around in a think tank. This is looking more and more like what Bush will be presented with and it's going to have support from his own party and from the top Democrats as well.

The US's biggest ally in the middle east is Saudi and they are vehemently against partitioning because it increases Iran's sphere of control. The US is not going to pursue a policy that will really **** off their biggest ally in the area.

JohnnyFlame · 11-08-2006, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agamemnon

Tony Snow said that Bush had rejected the Baker partition plan on October 20th. Tony said the idea of paritioning Iraq was a 'non-starter'.

"We've thought about partition, for a series of reasons," but Mr. Bush has categorically rejected the idea of breaking Iraq into regions, Mr. Snow said in reply to questions about an article in The Washington Times.

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20...5632-5191r.htm

Bush isn't in the same position as he was on OCT 20th and the plan has evolved to much more than just partition. He is faced with a plan backed by both parties and he will be hard pressed not to listen.

Agamemnon · 11-08-2006, 08:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sowa

The US's biggest ally in the middle east is Saudi and they are vehemently against partitioning because it increases Iran's sphere of control. The US is not going to pursue a policy that will really **** off their biggest ally in the area.

Not to mention Iran and Syria are the biggest beneficiaries of a breakup... something I doubt the US is eager to accomplish. Would Israel be better off with a more powerful/influential Iran/Syria?