2016/2017 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[MarkGio]

Originally Posted by jayswin

Haha, wow. Okay, I get it now, but you could have made that a lot clearer by not referencing an already existing deal. It sounded like you were saying 6x6 contract except for only two years.

Also, you're predicting anywhere from $20mil to $56mil on his next contract?

Well it's not a prediction because he's currently not a UFA. Im just voicing my analysis based on last year's UFAs, such as Molson, Eriksson, Lucic, Brouwer and the trends each year. Who knows what he commands when he's an actual free agent because that's dependent on how he performs from now until then.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by MarkGio

Well it's not a prediction because he's currently not a UFA. Im just voicing my analysis based on last year's UFAs, such as Molson, Eriksson, Lucic, Brouwer and the trends each year. Who knows what he commands when he's an actual free agent because that's dependent on how he performs from now until then.

Okay, you're losing me then. I'm really not sure what you're even saying. So it's not a prediction it's just an analysis, but even as an analysis you just gave a range of $20-$56mil.

Can I ask what the point of that analysis is? $20-$56 isn't analysis at all, it's an absurd range that lacks any sort of thought.

It would be like someone saying I'm not committing to predicting what Michael Backlund will get next year, but if he went to FA this year he'd get anywhere from $15mil - $50mil depending on dollars and terms.

You might as well say "If Eberle went to FA this year he'd get an NHL contract".

[MarkGio]

Well who's more dumb, the person for giving said analysis, or the person spending all this time and effort refuting it?

All I know is that my analysis was valuable enough to earn your time.

[jayswin]

Touché, my friend. You got me.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

That's not apples to apples though.

Eberle scored 49 in 69 games two seasons ago, for a 58 point pace. Before this year he'd been around the 60 point mark/pace for 4 straight years. Now I'm not saying he's some incredible offensive weapon, but his lowest point total is essentially equivalent to Frolik's career high (not including the locked shortened season, where Eberle only scored 37 points - 27 more than Frolik in those 45~ games).

Offensive is valued more highly than defence for forwards in the open market (and defencemen, probably). He's fairly one dimensional, but Cali's example of his market is a good one: on a line where you've got two players who can cover Eberle's mistakes (like Florida), you take him over Frolik 10/10 times.

Oshie seems like a better (closer) comparable. As a UFA he's probably looking at between 5.5 and 6.5 per for much less production over the last 4 years than Eberle and not being a huge presence defensively (I don't think?).

Oshie has a whopping 4 less points than Eberle over the last 4 years, 1 point less a year. Of course Oshie played 13 fewer games than Eberle so his points per game average was higher. He had more total goals than Eberle over the past 4 years, more goals per game. I am not sure how Oshie was "much less productive" than Eberle. Also Oshie averages over 4 goals a playoff run compared with Eberle's average of zero goals a playoff run over the last 4 years. Finally, Oshie is a much superior defensive player to Eberle.

So I am not sure why a NHL GM would give up assets for Eberle when he could get Oshie for free and likely cheaper. Oshie is better offensively, better defensively and better in the playoffs.

If they don't get Oshie, I am not sure why they would not get the following RW's for free on the free agent market

Patrick Eaves - 32 goals last year
Radulov - 54 points last year
Jagr - 46 points last year
Stafford - 8 goals in 58 games
Justin Williams - 24 goals
Vrbata - 20 goals
Parenteau - 13 goals
Connolly - 15 goals
Pitlick - 8 goals in 31 games

All of those guys would likely cost less than Eberle and would not cost a team any assets

So to get significant assets for Eberle without a very poor contract coming back, Chia needs to find a team that

a) needs a scoring RW
b) does not think any of the 10 legitimate UFA options are good enough or cannot sign them
c) feels they have nothing on their current team that compares with Jordan Eberle after doing the cost/benefit analysis both in terms of cap space and of assets to be given up.

I would suggest that that list is relatively small.

If I were the Panthers I would look at 3 or 4 of the UFA guys where before I ever considered doing something stupid like giving up significant assets for Jordan Eberle.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Oshie has a whopping 4 less points than Eberle over the last 4 years, 1 point less a year. Of course Oshie played 13 fewer games than Eberle so his points per game average was higher. He had more total goals than Eberle over the past 4 years, more goals per game. I am not sure how Oshie was "much less productive" than Eberle. Also Oshie averages over 4 goals a playoff run compared with Eberle's average of zero goals a playoff run over the last 4 years. Finally, Oshie is a much superior defensive player to Eberle.

Ugh, that's correct, I completely misread Eberle's game totals (I even remember thinking, why has he played so much less than Oshie?). My mistake.

But alright, that actually makes it a better comparison I think. What makes Oshie so much better defensively? I admittedly don't know a ton about Oshie's defensive game but visually it's never impressed me. Are there stats that show he's leaps and bounds better than Eberle?

I think playoff stats are irrelevant, considering Eberle has been in them all of once and Oshie has been in them all four years, that (again) is a super awful comparison because the difference in sample size. When Oshie was Eberle's age, he'd played in 6 rounds over 5 years and had a whopping 5 goals and 4 assists to show for it, not huge numbers.

EDIT: according to BehindtheNet, Eberle seemed to be better in 15/16 (they didn't have stats for 16/17). Higher Corsi, harder competition, low shooting percentage, better ability to maintain offensive zone possession. I'm obviously missing something that makes Oshie the superior defensive threat, but what is it?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Ugh, that's correct, I completely misread Eberle's game totals (I even remember thinking, why has he played so much less than Oshie?). My mistake.

But alright, that actually makes it a better comparison I think. What makes Oshie so much better defensively? I admittedly don't know a ton about Oshie's defensive game but visually it's never impressed me. Are there stats that show he's leaps and bounds better than Eberle?

I think playoff stats are irrelevant, considering Eberle has been in them all of once and Oshie has been in them all four years, that (again) is a super awful comparison because the difference in sample size. When Oshie was Eberle's age, he'd played in 6 rounds over 5 years and had a whopping 5 goals and 4 assists to show for it, not huge numbers.

EDIT: according to BehindtheNet, Eberle seemed to be better in 15/16 (they didn't have stats for 16/17). Higher Corsi, harder competition, low shooting percentage, better ability to maintain offensive zone possession. I'm obviously missing something that makes Oshie the superior defensive threat, but what is it?

I don't get why anyone would trade for Eberle rather than take a run at one of the 10 free agents that are available for free.

Take Justin Williams. I suspect that a team can get him on a 2 year deal for around 8 million. In a world where a team takes Eberle in a trade over him and gives up significant assets (a top prospect and a pick) they would have to do the following cost benefit analysis.

1) For the next 2 years, Eberle will be a better player than Justin Williams (Williams has scored at the same rate as Eberle over the past 2 years).

2) Eberle will be a significantly better player (50% better if Williams cap hit is 4 million and Eberle's is 6 million)

3) Eberle will even be more significantly better than the calculation needed under number 2 as you will have to give up assets to acquire Eberle whereas Williams would be free. What is the value of one of your top prospects and a pick?

You can rinse and repeat that analysis with every single one of the 10 RW's who are available. For some Eberle will be demonstrably better under criteria one (he is definitely more valuable than Stafford for instance). However for each one the salary difference under criteria two will be different (Stafford probably is a lot cheaper than Radulov), but for all of them they are likely to sign for less than 6 million, which is the burden that Eberle brings to your team. And finally you would have to determine what the value of your assets are that you are giving up.

I don't think that Eberle is coming to the Flames under any circumstances, but if he were I suspect his value to the Flames is something like Stajan and a 3rd because of the boat anchor that is his contract.

There was an Oilers fan in this thread who said that Eberle was the 14th highest scoring RW in the last 3 years. Well Eberle is the 7th highest paid RW in the NHL. The 14th highest paid RW has a 5.275 million dollar cap hit. That difference is important, he vastly underperforms his cap hit, which significantly drags down his value. And that is if all you care about is offense and all defensive players are the same like in NHL 16.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So I am not sure why a NHL GM would give up assets for Eberle when he could get Oshie for free and likely cheaper. Oshie is better offensively, better defensively and better in the playoffs.

If they don't get Oshie, I am not sure why they would not get the following RW's for free on the free agent market

Patrick Eaves - 32 goals last year
Radulov - 54 points last year
Jagr - 46 points last year
Stafford - 8 goals in 58 games
Justin Williams - 24 goals
Vrbata - 20 goals
Parenteau - 13 goals
Connolly - 15 goals
Pitlick - 8 goals in 31 games

All of those guys would likely cost less than Eberle and would not cost a team any assets

The only guys on the list that are really comparable to Eberle are Radulov and Oshie.

I'll be surprised if they both don't get $6 million in free agency this year. $6 million seems to be the current going rate for 50-60 points based on last offseason's free agent frenzy.

All of those other guys are very old for hockey players, or just aren't anywhere close to Eberle production wise.

I personally hope the Oilers keep Eberle for another year if the prevailing wisdom mirrors your thoughts. I think he is pretty likely to have a more productive season next year both in the regular season and playoffs.

Not that Eberle is in the same league as a player, but Datsyuk went at least 42 playoff games without scoring a goal. Just because Eberle didn't have a good playoffs, doesn't mean that his future is going to be a reflection of that.

If the Oilers trade Eberle away for peanuts, I think whichever team picks him up will be quite happy with the acquisition.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The only guys on the list that are really comparable to Eberle are Radulov and Oshie.

I'll be surprised if they both don't get $6 million in free agency this year. $6 million seems to be the current going rate for 50-60 points based on last offseason's free agent frenzy.

All of those other guys are very old for hockey players, or just aren't anywhere close to Eberle production wise.

I personally hope the Oilers keep Eberle for another year if the prevailing wisdom mirrors your thoughts. I think he is pretty likely to have a more productive season next year both in the regular season and playoffs.

Not that Eberle is in the same league as a player, but Datsyuk went at least 42 playoff games without scoring a goal. Just because Eberle didn't have a good playoffs, doesn't mean that his future is going to be a reflection of that.

If the Oilers trade Eberle away for peanuts, I think whichever team picks him up will be quite happy with the acquisition.

From the Oilers past transactions, you would be 100PC correct. Once they get out of the swamp, they are usually golden.

[Poe969]

If Buffalo makes Evander Kane available, I think the flames should seriously consider him. I'm pretty sure he can play RW and is just the kind of on ice player the team needs.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The only guys on the list that are really comparable to Eberle are Radulov and Oshie.

I'll be surprised if they both don't get $6 million in free agency this year. $6 million seems to be the current going rate for 50-60 points based on last offseason's free agent frenzy.

All of those other guys are very old for hockey players, or just aren't anywhere close to Eberle production wise.

I personally hope the Oilers keep Eberle for another year if the prevailing wisdom mirrors your thoughts. I think he is pretty likely to have a more productive season next year both in the regular season and playoffs.

Not that Eberle is in the same league as a player, but Datsyuk went at least 42 playoff games without scoring a goal. Just because Eberle didn't have a good playoffs, doesn't mean that his future is going to be a reflection of that.

If the Oilers trade Eberle away for peanuts, I think whichever team picks him up will be quite happy with the acquisition.

This does make sense, but then you have to look at an overall game.

Does Eberle help you win? I don't think so. I thought he has been on a slow downward spiral for a while now, especially his all-round game. I thought when he first stepped into the league and then for a couple of seasons, he was a guy that tried hard all over the ice. Poor systems, coaching and depth of course plagued Edmonton, but his jump and hustle were obvious.

Then, suddenly, he stopped. He seemingly stopped caring. His hustle disappeared except when he had a chance at an offensive opportunity.

I thought that jump would come back in the playoffs. The fans were loud. Out limps Eberle. I just kept thinking "He must be really hurt."

No. He just stopped. He stopped being that kid that the Oilers drafted.

I 100% believe in culture. Up until the McDavid lottery, Edmonton's culture was garbage. Effort levels, confidence levels, everything. You didn't really see Hall improve. You didn't see Eberle improve. You didn't see RNH improve either. Other than Hall's 80pt outlier of a season, none of these players took that step forward from their first couple of seasons.

As a GM, I am looking at Eberle and trying to figure out if my team can change the way he plays. New Jersey hasn't been successful with Hall so far. He hasn't gotten 'better'.

If I am a GM, I am thinking: "Eberle couldn't be bothered to bust his ass for a chance to play with McDavid." Why would he bust his ass to play with any of my guys?

If I am a GM, I am reviewing his playoff performance at least, and wondering out-loud: "Ok, he didn't score, but why in the hell isn't he working hard out there every shift. It is the damn playoffs!"

The difference between Datsyuk and Eberle is that Datsyuk still helped his team win. He entered this league with a work ethic, and he kept up his work ethic until he became the player he became. He was good all over the ice, even though he wasn't big.

Eberle is good just around the net. If a team is that desperate for goal scoring, well, that's about all you get with Eberle. Oshie is difficult to play against. He may not score as much, but I would be shocked if 100 out of 100 NHL players didn't point at Eberle when asked who they would rather play against. That, at least to this casual fan, is what I think of Eberle..

RNH I think is very much salvageable. I do think he has extraordinary vision, and I do think he at least tries on defence. Heck, sometimes he is actually pretty darn good defensively, even if he isn't very big. I would pick RNH 10 times out of 10 as a reclamation project. I bet his game can be turned around, and he can adequately function as a top-line center. Elite? No, probably not, but I am betting he will be able to post numbers that point to him being a top-line center.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Poe969

If Buffalo makes Evander Kane available, I think the flames should seriously consider him. I'm pretty sure he can play RW and is just the kind of on ice player the team needs.

A selfish, over rated, overpaid malcontent?

Not to mention he's an UFA in 1 year.

[killer_carlson]

Can you imagine the Arena negotiations asking for public money only to have Evander Kane do something stupid and post it on Instagram?

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

A selfish, over rated, overpaid malcontent?

Not to mention he's an UFA in 1 year.

This is what gets me. And for this reason, I don't think it's smart for the Flames to give up assets on anyone like Kane, Duchene, or to an extent, MAF.

They have already used considerable assets obtaining Elliott and Stone for short periods of time.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

This is what gets me. And for this reason, I don't think it's smart for the Flames to give up assets on anyone like Kane, Duchene, or to an extent, MAF.



They have already used considerable assets obtaining Elliott and Stone for short periods of time.

Don't quite get your point - neither Duchene nor Fleury are 1 year away from UFA.

Now, I'm definitely in agreement - no asset spend on Fleury. If you're spending assets, make it on someone who can be an effective player for the organization in the long-term, not on someone who you'd already be planning a succession plan for.

I think Kane and Duchene could both be part of the long-term here though, so I'd be fine with paying to acquire either one.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

The only guys on the list that are really comparable to Eberle are Radulov and Oshie.

I'll be surprised if they both don't get $6 million in free agency this year. $6 million seems to be the current going rate for 50-60 points based on last offseason's free agent frenzy.

All of those other guys are very old for hockey players, or just aren't anywhere close to Eberle production wise.

I personally hope the Oilers keep Eberle for another year if the prevailing wisdom mirrors your thoughts. I think he is pretty likely to have a more productive season next year both in the regular season and playoffs.

Not that Eberle is in the same league as a player, but Datsyuk went at least 42 playoff games without scoring a goal. Just because Eberle didn't have a good playoffs, doesn't mean that his future is going to be a reflection of that.

If the Oilers trade Eberle away for peanuts, I think whichever team picks him up will be quite happy with the acquisition.

Meh, Eberle has looked terrible for years now. I know that he has put up some numbers, but you'd be hard pressed to find a softer player. I believe that he has been on the block for several seasons and just hasn't generated interest. Mentioning him and datsyuk in the same sentence is amusing. Very possibly that he redeems himself with another team "Edmonton effect" style, but right now, I wouldn't pick him off waivers.

[AC]

http://nypost.com/2017/06/04/could-d...r-trade-piece/

Brooks: Several clubs have inquired about the availability of Rangers goalie Antti Raanta, who will be vulnerable to claim by Vegas.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by AC

http://nypost.com/2017/06/04/could-d...r-trade-piece/

Brooks: Several clubs have inquired about the availability of Rangers goalie Antti Raanta, who will be vulnerable to claim by Vegas.

Several clubs may have inquired, but the Flames are the only ones who can actually acquire him without then needing to expose a different goalie who's under contract.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by AC

http://nypost.com/2017/06/04/could-d...r-trade-piece/

Brooks: Several clubs have inquired about the availability of Rangers goalie Antti Raanta, who will be vulnerable to claim by Vegas.

Also interesting from that piece

"Rangers have not told either Dan Girardi or Marc Staal to expect a buyout prior to the expansion draft, nor has management asked either veteran defenseman to waive his no-move clause, sources said. But that does not mean either possibility has been ruled out, because there essentially is no chance both will remain on the roster when training camp commences."

[Vulcan]

But moving Raanta, who is one year away from free agency, would guarantee that the Rangers would lose someone else — likely Lindberg, Jesper Fast or Michael Grabner — in the expansion draft.
So Gorton would have to get value in return for the 28-year-old Finn that would compensate for the loss of the goaltender
and the player who would go to the Golden Knights.

He's trying to make the case that the Rangers need to collect twice for the same player. As it stands they are going to lose Raanta anyways, so all they should be interested in is to get compensation for the other player Vegas takes.