[CP Story] What To Expect with Pick #16

[Bingo]

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/05/w...-16th-overall/

Does this buoy or dampen your hopes?

Will be interesting to look back at the Flames pick in this grouping five years out

[PugnaciousIntern]

I really appreciate the effort that went into writing this, thank you!

The results have me wondering - what types of picks are typically over- or under-valued in trades? Given this data, I've got to think that mid to late first-round picks are quite overvalued in trades.

[Rick M.]

A fun read; thanks for doing the work.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Great read Bingo. Thanks for the analysis and thoughtful presentation.

I'm more inclined to think that this year's #16 pick will be one of the "busts" that you presented, and less likely to believe that it will result in a core player. Honestly, I'd be happy with a fringe NHLer or bottom of the roster player. For those reasons, if Treliving trades this pick for a roster ready player, I think that'd be a smart move.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bingo

http://www.calgarypuck.com/2017/05/w...-16th-overall/

Does this buoy or dampen your hopes?

Will be interesting to look back at the Flames pick in this grouping five years out

The funny thing is, whoever the pick is, that player will instantly be viewed my many as our best prospect.

The pick will likely never be worth more than it is on draft day. I would be happy to trade it if it meant getting a decent goalie back.

[Erick Estrada]

Recent history of the 16-20 range doesn't paint a pretty picture in regards to impact players being picked in this range but anything is possible at the draft. If the 16th overall pick could land the Flames a goaltender that could be a difference maker for the team even in the short term you can argue it's probably worth it seeing the chances that pick becomes a core player is the same as being a total bust and that list of players picked over those years is very mediocre.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I think a 30% chance of being an NHLer is about right. Not great odds, but not impossible either. It's hard to temper expectations, but the fact is at #16, we would be doing well to end up with an Eric Nystrom/Chuck Kobasew type.

[GranteedEV]

Guys on that list I'd be pretty stoked to draft:

Zajac
Hanzal
Gardiner
Del Zotto
Leddy
Kreider
Tarasenko
Klefbom
Hertl
Mantha

Just because the odds say it's unlikely, doesn't mean you don't need guys drafted in this range to pan out. Gotta draft the highest ceiling that's there, which i'm thinking is gonna be Liljegren.

[Roof-Daddy]

If Liljegren falls to the flames I will do the dance of joy.

Could potentially be two really nice pieces the Flames unexpectedly land due to mono in just a few months.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Could potentially be two really nice pieces the Flames unexpectedly land due to mono in just a few months.

The Mono Duo

[Bingo]

I'm a little more positive.

I liked the fact that 32% turned out to be core players.
I liked the fact that pick 16 had a noticeable gain in core players to pick 20
I like the fact that the Flames have shown to be at very least lucky but hopefully shrewd in taking the right player in a mix of players in recent drafts.

Wouldn't call it anything like a slam dunk, but I keep thinking those three factors push that 32% closer to 50%

[Geeoff]

Flames success rate is not great in the middle of the 1st round...but we did get Mikael Backlund at least. Gotta take the swing IMO.

[Cantrader]

Hope we get a potential scoring winger with the pick. We have good D and goaltending prospects.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm a little more positive.

I liked the fact that 32% turned out to be core players.
I liked the fact that pick 16 had a noticeable gain in core players to pick 20
I like the fact that the Flames have shown to be at very least lucky but hopefully shrewd in taking the right player in a mix of players in recent drafts.

Wouldn't call it anything like a slam dunk, but I keep thinking those three factors push that 32% closer to 50%

That seems like wishful thinking in a draft that is regarded as very weak.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That seems like wishful thinking in a draft that is regarded as very weak.

It is? Very weak?

My understanding is that it's a draft that doesn't have really high end prospects at the top end like Matthews, Laine, Eichel, McDavid, etc but there are lots of good quality prospects overall.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

It is? Very weak?

My understanding is that it's a draft that doesn't have really high end prospects at the top end like Matthews, Laine, Eichel, McDavid, etc but there are lots of good quality prospects overall.

Kay. I understand it to be a draft that not only had lower tier top end talent, but talent that drops off in the 20s of the first round. That means that the traditionally decent picks at 16 are probably more like late first round picks which are more likely to bust. So with all that analysis saying that you can get a core player at 16 roughly 33% of the time, in a year like this it's probably much lower than that.

[Bingo]

Sure could be ...

I'm buoyed by the fact that the Flames have been unearthing players in the second and third round in and amongst players that haven't faired as well.

Hoping they take that to the mid first round as well.

Clearly no two drafts are the same and you can't apply linear averages, but not all the drafts in the ten years analyzed were 1993 either.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

It is? Very weak?

My understanding is that it's a draft that doesn't have really high end prospects at the top end like Matthews, Laine, Eichel, McDavid, etc but there are lots of good quality prospects overall.

This, and to put a different spin on your point the way I have interpreted this draft as its the 5-10 crowd that's underwhelming compared to better draft years but there isn't much of a drop off from 5ish to 18ish meaning we could be sitting pretty good.

[Love]

Lots of great players will be available at our range

[Incogneto]

I hope the Flames pull a Pats/Seahawks and trade back a few times to get more kicks at the can.

For instance, the Seahawks this year came into the draft with #26 overall.
Traded #26 for #31 and a 3rd (95th) and 7th.
Then traded #31 for #34 and a 4th.

They turned #26 into:
a 2nd (#34), a 3rd (#95), a 4th (#111), and a 7th. This would be best case scenario for the Flames, IMO. Turn #16 into #30, a 2nd and a 3rd, or something like that.