American Politics Thread: Orange is the new POTUS

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by peter12

What is with this drive-by attack? Please explain yourself, or make a contribution to the thread.

In your intial bizarre thing you insulted both trump and trudeau, dusted off your hands and took the high road. Don't think you weren't baiting when you wrote that. Do you see anyone agreeing with you? You didn't even have a point, evidence or a proposed solution. Was just a bunch of hoity toidy bs. Congratulations

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

It isn't unwarranted, and you should contribute instead.

Maybe you should stop constantly posting inflammatory partisan rhetoric without being able to back them anything up with empirical data. And you cry foul when someone points that out to you?

None of your points are valid except for the last one where you very kindly provided a rebuttal to my point on supply management. Unfortunately, I missed that post, but I would happily go through the documents provided, and give you my response. Just scanning it, I can see that you left out some important things.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

So, you're bad mouthing JT because he didn't immediately submit to Trump, like a #####? Wow.

It is not at all strange that you would consider accommodations to a senior, powerful ally and trading partner in such a crude term.

We need to be accommodating. We aren't being accommodating, and we are paying the price.

This is only going to get worse in the short-term. Trump wants to lower the corporate tax by 15%. That would kill us.

[Senator Clay Davis]

At least peter has upped the trolling game again. Nice to see him finding his groove.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by peter12

It is not at all strange that you would consider accommodations to a senior, powerful ally and trading partner in such a crude term.

We need to be accommodating. We aren't being accommodating, and we are paying the price.

This is only going to get worse in the short-term. Trump wants to lower the corporate tax by 15%. That would kill us.

What Peter wants

Fox News- Canada is taking dairy jobs
10 minutes later
Trump - tariffs on Canadian milk and lumber
15 minutes later
JT - sure Donny, sure, we'll give you whatever you want, you've obviously put some deep thought into this and consulted with your people. After all,,you sure tuned in China with your trade tariffs talk. Do you want our lunch money too? Anything you want Donny.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Also, though it may seem like Trump is now attacking Canada because of his desperate need of any kind of win after eating loss after loss, I wonder if maybe he finally saw that picture of Ivanka eye ####ing the #### out of Trudeau and just snapped in a jealous rage.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

I am not saying that there the supply management system we have in place is right, but deregulation of the industry worldwide has clearly brought about changes that would be detrimental for local producers. Except in New Zealand which benefits from near perfect year round grazing conditions. We would end up with worse quality milk with significantly more hormone content (less regulations around that in the States), at the similar costs, while driving local producers into the ground for American profits. Remind me why Canadians would want that?

So this report is pretty interesting.

- American farms are larger, and more productive with the largest farms of 1000+ cows enjoying a 15-20% productivity advantage.
- Production costs are about 10-23% lower on average.
- Canadian dairy farms are incredibly debt-laden compared to their American counterparts. The average debt per cow in Ontario is $19,900 compared $3,400 per cow in the NE United States. (This stat alone should tell you that Canadian supply management is unsustainable).
- Canadians currently pay 28-36% more in dairy costs than Americans - as the result of our unproductive, technically unadvanced, and financially unstable farms. This significantly effects Canadian family household expenditures, especially at the lower end of the income distribution.
- The report indicates that if we opened up our markets to American milk, then CAnadian consumers would see a 24% decrease in the price of milk. That is a lot!!
- That means that 40% of Canadian farms would not be able to sustain their production at current prices. What that also means is that these are the farms being artificially sustained by the supply management system. That is, there is no real demand for their product except Canadians are forced to buy it by the government.
- Coincidentally, the report states that Quebec farms would be the most at risk. Hmmm... I wonder why the Canadian federal government is so keen to preserve this system at all costs. Could it be... for partisan reasons!?
- Similarly, the report estimates that cheese prices would decrease $.30 - $0.45 per kilo, and butter by 30-65%. In the aggregate, these are significant savings for the Canadian consumer.

International trade only works if countries follow their comparative advantage. Unfortunately, climate, poor investment, low fungibility of product have all contributed to a Canadian dairy system that is not competitive on the global scale.

Consumers pay the price. The report is VERY clear on that (did we read the same report??).

We are fortunate enough to be situated to a very productive, and advanced dairy system. We should buy their product. In the short-run, yes jobs will be lost, but that is capitalism. Farmers can decide to do other things, and they will.

In the long-run, there will be a similar consolidation and investment in the industry, and perhaps, one day, we can send our milk south for our southern neighbours to guzzle.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by DuffMan

What Peter wants

Fox News- Canada is taking dairy jobs
10 minutes later
Trump - tariffs on Canadian milk and lumber
15 minutes later
JT - sure Donny, sure, we'll give you whatever you want, you've obviously put some deep thought into this and consulted with your people. After all,,you sure tuned in China with your trade tariffs talk. Do you want our lunch money too? Anything you want Donny.

Softwood lumber and dairy supply management are not political issues just invented by Trump out of thin air. They have festered in the American political swamp for decades. They are completely wrong on softwood lumber, but not so wrong on dairy.

Never mind that Canada has been slacking on NATO contributions and NORAD since the Cold War.

[octothorp]

There is absolutely zero upside to conceding anything at this point; any NAFTA renegotiation is going to take months and likely years, and establishing early on that Trump can score easy political points at home by getting Canada to make concessions is literally the worst approach we could take. Whenever Trump feels the need for a win, he'll be look at other elements of Canadian trade he can take shots at.

We want this to be a negotiation between seasoned bureaucrats from both sides who are looking out for their own industries. It'll be much longer and more boring than Trump has the attention span for. Yeah, we should be open to giving up something like Supply Management in the course of negotiation... we'd probably be better off having those agricultural sectors under a similar subsidy system to what we use in other sectors, but that should be a concession made in negotiation for US concessions, not something that's offered up like a white flag against the first twitter salvo.

[Fuzz]

Peter- Any clarification why they are more productive? I'm going to guess that some of it has to do with the use of hormones that are banned in Canada. Personally I'd rather keep US product out of Canada for that reason alone.

As for costs, we have higher input costs like fuel taxes. We also probably have fewer illegals working for pennies on our farms. Crazy that living in a civilized country has higher costs for products to protect it's citizens, right? Sometimes the cheapest price for the consumer shouldn't be the number one priority.

[DuffMan]

Originally Posted by peter12

Softwood lumber and dairy supply management are not political issues just invented by Trump out of thin air. They have festered in the American political swamp for decades. They are completely wrong on softwood lumber, but not so wrong on dairy.

Never mind that Canada has been slacking on NATO contributions and NORAD since the Cold War.

I get that, but because something shiny on Fox caught Trumps very limited attention, doesn't mean JT should submit to his whims, the same day.
It is political for Trump.
What happened to his rhetoric with chineses goods and tariffs?

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by peter12

Thanks, Thor. That perfectly exemplifies the problem here. I agree that Trump is doing a lot of harmful, and short-sighted things, but from the perspective of Canada, that does not matter.

Unfortunately, the world does not act like a high school clique where unpopular members are soon brought in line by the polite and cool majority.

This is exactly as I said, shallow symbolism in the service of Trump's brand of populism. Unfortunately, we in Canada, provide an easy target because simply, we refuse to play the real game of politics with a neighbour that has provided an extremely beneficial relationship to this country - without which we would not exist otherwise today!

There is nothing simplistic to what I am saying. If Trudeau wants to make headway with Trump, then he has to be prepared to make some concessions, and not continually thumb his nose at the guy.

You could have just responded with an intelligent statement like this in the first place instead of the condescending, troll-ish replies that you have been doing lately in various threads.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Wormius

You could have just responded with an intelligent statement like this in the first place instead of the condescending, troll-ish replies that you have been doing lately in various threads.

Sorry, I have been dealing with a lot of stuff and should have followed this course to begin with.

[Thor]

Not only is the US not right on softwood lumber, they are way off on dairy.. Donald Trump watched an interview on fox and friends with some hillbilly farmer and BAM, trade war looms.

You have been dealing with a lot of stuff? Stop calling any comment against you as a drive by..

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by peter12

So this report is pretty interesting.

- American farms are larger, and more productive with the largest farms of 1000+ cows enjoying a 15-20% productivity advantage.
- Production costs are about 10-23% lower on average.
- Canadian dairy farms are incredibly debt-laden compared to their American counterparts. The average debt per cow in Ontario is $19,900 compared $3,400 per cow in the NE United States. (This stat alone should tell you that Canadian supply management is unsustainable).
- Canadians currently pay 28-36% more in dairy costs than Americans - as the result of our unproductive, technically unadvanced, and financially unstable farms. This significantly effects Canadian family household expenditures, especially at the lower end of the income distribution.
- The report indicates that if we opened up our markets to American milk, then CAnadian consumers would see a 24% decrease in the price of milk. That is a lot!!
- That means that 40% of Canadian farms would not be able to sustain their production at current prices. What that also means is that these are the farms being artificially sustained by the supply management system. That is, there is no real demand for their product except Canadians are forced to buy it by the government.
- Coincidentally, the report states that Quebec farms would be the most at risk. Hmmm... I wonder why the Canadian federal government is so keen to preserve this system at all costs. Could it be... for partisan reasons!?
- Similarly, the report estimates that cheese prices would decrease $.30 - $0.45 per kilo, and butter by 30-65%. In the aggregate, these are significant savings for the Canadian consumer.

International trade only works if countries follow their comparative advantage. Unfortunately, climate, poor investment, low fungibility of product have all contributed to a Canadian dairy system that is not competitive on the global scale.

Consumers pay the price. The report is VERY clear on that (did we read the same report??).

We are fortunate enough to be situated to a very productive, and advanced dairy system. We should buy their product. In the short-run, yes jobs will be lost, but that is capitalism. Farmers can decide to do other things, and they will.

In the long-run, there will be a similar consolidation and investment in the industry, and perhaps, one day, we can send our milk south for our southern neighbours to guzzle.

There are a lot of things that don't get taken into the account there, much stricter labour/filtering regulations in the Canadian market, lower input fuel costs, lower American labour costs, and also general American government farm subsidies that encourage large industrial farming practices to overproduce and flood the market. ala corn and soy subsidies which we do not start trades wars with the US over. All of those need to be taken into consideration when looking at the "cost" and need to be taken into account in trade negotiations.

Like others have said, is $0.50 more for a carton of milk worth the livelihoods of over 25k+ plus a multi-billion dollar industry for an inferior corporate industrial run US subsidized product? Especially when the US already maintains a huge dairy trade surplus. This is not account for all the secondary rural jobs that would be lost as a result of farms going under either. Supply management system can definitely be fixed, but on our terms, not at the end of a US dictated gun barrel.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by octothorp

There is absolutely zero upside to conceding anything at this point; any NAFTA renegotiation is going to take months and likely years, and establishing early on that Trump can score easy political points at home by getting Canada to make concessions is literally the worst approach we could take. Whenever Trump feels the need for a win, he'll be look at other elements of Canadian trade he can take shots at.

We want this to be a negotiation between seasoned bureaucrats from both sides who are looking out for their own industries. It'll be much longer and more boring than Trump has the attention span for. Yeah, we should be open to giving up something like Supply Management in the course of negotiation... we'd probably be better off having those agricultural sectors under a similar subsidy system to what we use in other sectors, but that should be a concession made in negotiation for US concessions, not something that's offered up like a white flag against the first twitter salvo.

This is the most important thing. Besides his desperation here, he doesn't have the interest, let alone the attention span, to engage in a long, protracted negotiation. That's the one nice thing about negotiating against someone with the emotional maturity of a child. Definitely a chance for Canada and Mexico to actually come out ahead in the end.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

There are a lot of things that don't get taken into the account there, much stricter labour/filtering regulations in the Canadian market, lower input fuel costs, lower American labour costs, and also general American government farm subsidies that encourage large industrial farming practices to overproduce and flood the market. ala corn and soy subsidies which we do not start trades wars with the US over. All of those need to be taken into consideration when looking at the "cost" and need to be taken into account in trade negotiations.

Like others have said, is $0.50 more for a carton of milk worth the livelihoods of over 25k+ plus a multi-billion dollar industry for an inferior corporate industrial run US subsidized product? Especially when the US already maintains a huge dairy trade surplus. This is not account for all the secondary rural jobs that would be lost as a result of farms going under either. System can definitely be fixed from a supply management standpoint, but on our terms, not at the end of a US dictated gun barrel.

I think the notion that milk isn't produced by large corporate farms in Canada is a pretty big falsehood here. This is Canadians corporations/co-ops vs US ones.

Also the notion that it's only 50 cents per carton more so it's worth it is terrible logic. If it's 50 cents per 4 litres you are paying a 14% tax on your goods to support and industry. Would you be in favour of 14% tax to subsidize Canadian goods in general?

That said I agree with you that Canada shouldn't be negotiating under threat and trading our subsidies for theirs is essential in any trade negotiation

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by GGG

Also the notion that it's only 50 cents per carton more so it's worth it is terrible logic. If it's 50 cents per 4 litres you are paying a 14% tax on your goods to support and industry. Would you be in favour of 14% tax to subsidize Canadian goods in general?

Whether or not it is going to subsidize the goods, we do pay higher prices on most things (eg: books, electronics, gas, alcohol, etc) whether due to currency differences, taxes, transportation costs, supply/demand factors, etc.

Assuming that the price of goods would go down is laughable.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by calculoso

Whether or not it is going to subsidize the goods, we do pay higher prices on most things (eg: books, electronics, gas, alcohol, etc) whether due to currency differences, taxes, transportation costs, supply/demand factors, etc.

Assuming that the price of goods would go down is laughable.

Removing quotas in a competitive environment of a limited shelf life product will reduce costs to the consumer provided you don't end up in a monopoly situation. That's basic economic fact.

And yes we do pay more for goods due to your reasons listed above. We also pay for supply management.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by GGG

Removing quotas in a competitive environment of a limited shelf life product will reduce costs to the consumer provided you don't end up in a monopoly situation. That's basic economic fact.

And yes we do pay more for goods due to your reasons listed above. We also pay for supply management.

We might be paying for supply management, but the consumer would not likely pay less at this point even if it were completely removed. In the UK dairy deregulation case retailers/supply chain ate up near the entirety of savings which were not really passed to consumers.

You'd end up having to deregulate one sector to regulate another for the savings to become apparent.