A huge difference between Crosby re-signing in Pittsburg and McDavid in Edmonton is Crosby clearly believed he could win in Pittsburg, and has.
There is not a franchise that has demonstrated a bigger inability to win than the Oilers. If they fall out of the playoffs this year, or back in to being a #7 or #8 seed and get knocked out in the first round, that won't help convince McDavid winning is happening in Edmonton. I don't think anyone would be surprised if the Oilers took steps backwards next season.
Crosby had Pittsburgh over the barrel, but he never pushed it.
Not to the same extent. Penguins had Malkin who scored 100+ points that season and lead the team in regular season. (Mostly because Crosby missed a good bunch of the seaon, but still). They also had an okay team overall.
You could totally build a team around Malkin. The Oilers are not going to build a team around Draisaitl.
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Toronto is going to have some troubles of their own when Marner and Mathews need new deals.
Teams that constantly draft in that number one or two spot and pick up generational players will eventually end up in cap hell.
Top end players who produce like top end players getting high salaries is seldom an issue.
Teams end up dancing on the salary cap landmine when they have 4th line centers and number 7 defenceman accounting for 9 million or about 12.5% of their allotted cap space.
I've said it before, but Draisaitl and McDavid will be the least of the Oilers cap worries, it's Sekera, Poulliot, and Lucic who'll sink that boat.
Likewise with the Leafs their risk will be how much do they pay the guys who aren't Marner and Matthews.
The Blackhawks for the most part have somewhat proven that you keep the stars, trade the next tier players for good returns, and keep swapping out those parts. Question is, can anyone else successfully practice that? You don't get the good discount veteran free agents like Brad Richards, or Brian Campbell recently until you prove to the league that you can win.
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Top end players who produce like top end players getting high salaries is seldom an issue.
Teams end up dancing on the salary cap landmine when they have 4th line centers and number 7 defenceman accounting for 9 million or about 12.5% of their allotted cap space.
I've said it before, but Draisaitl and McDavid will be the least of the Oilers cap worries, it's Sekera, Poulliot, and Lucic who'll sink that boat.
Likewise with the Leafs their risk will be how much do they pay the guys who aren't Marner and Matthews.
The Blackhawks for the most part have somewhat proven that you keep the stars, trade the next tier players for good returns, and keep swapping out those parts. Question is, can anyone else successfully practice that? You don't get the good discount veteran free agents like Brad Richards, or Brian Campbell recently until you prove to the league that you can win.
Canadian teams will have to rely on prospects more than a team like chicago or new york, cities where all players universally would like to play. More than a few players think it's their favourite NHL city right now. According to Olli Jokinen, some Flames players sure did during the playoffs one year...
Great post though, bang on. Lucic looks like a stick of cap dynamite in that deal. Full NMC for 7 years? The only thing that will save that team--and at this point I'm basically convinced it is Flames luck that it will-- is a lockout with a buyout window.
What also makes teams like the Blackhawks successful is that they are fantastic at finding and developing a constant stream of new talent to replace the overpriced outgoing players. And once you have a proven track record, good players will want to come to you.
Based on their history, that's not something I see the Oilers being particularly good at.
Canadian teams will have to rely on prospects more than a team like chicago or new york, cities where all players universally would like to play. More than a few players think it's their favourite NHL city right now. According to Olli Jokinen, some Flames players sure did during the playoffs one year...
Great post though, bang on. Lucic looks like a stick of cap dynamite in that deal. Full NMC for 7 years? The only thing that will save that team--and at this point I'm basically convinced it is Flames luck that it will-- is a lockout with a buyout window.
I could also see some BS LTIR designation due to a "chronic back condition".
All this talk from Edmonton fans about out streak and it's 'unsustainable nature' makes me laugh because the only true thing that has proven to be 100 % consistently sustainable is E=NG. It's up there with Newton's law and the theory of relativity; a direct descendant of Murphy's law.. because it just is. E=NG.
It's all about perspective I guess. A 10 game winning streak is unsustainable in Oilers fans eyes whereas the rest of the hockey world would think a 10 year playoff drought is unsustainable....then we remember Edmonton happened lol.
In such an over serious world, please never change Edmonton. You're simply comedy gold.
I would love to see a team make a max offer sheet on McDavid...
its certainly possible that he is never on the market, however, if his agent was smart, and if he is smart, he would test that market...
Salary is one thing... Endorsements are another matter entirely... While Edmonton will no doubt match any salary offer, what they cannot match is McDavid playing for an eastern team...is Endorsement deals would be much much higher on either coast.
Salary is one thing... Endorsements are another matter entirely...
Endorsements are small potatoes for NHL players. There are maybe a dozen who make more than $1 million a year from them. This season, Crosby tops the league (according to Forbes) with $4.5m in endorsement income.
Anyway, McDavid can write his own ticket for endorsements in Edmonton. All he has to do is make his own version of the Krusty the Clown generic endorsement video:
Let the cash roll in!
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McDavid wanted to be drafted by the Leafs first and foremost but would have been fine with Buffalo due to it's proximity to home. For the same reasons the Flames will likely not be able to retain Gaudreau when his current deal expires, the Oilers will unlikely be able to retain McDavid when he becomes a UFA.
Endorsements are small potatoes for NHL players. There are maybe a dozen who make more than $1 million a year from them. This season, Crosby tops the league (according to Forbes) with $4.5m in endorsement income.
Anyway, McDavid can write his own ticket for endorsements in Edmonton. All he has to do is make his own version of the Krusty the Clown generic endorsement video:
Let the cash roll in!
didn't realize it was as low as that... poor NHL..
that said, theoretically, that's another 5 M per year (accounting for inflation by the time McDavid gets to RFA age)... so another 33%? of his salary?
undoubtedly, he gets some of that in Edmonton too, but playing in a major media centers would increase that take...
and frankly, its Edmonton... its been well known how difficult it has been for that team to attract UFAs... the new stadium helps, as does mcdavid and winning...
however, if i were a millionaire and could have a say of where to play, it wouldn't be there....
McDavid wanted to be drafted by the Leafs first and foremost but would have been fine with Buffalo due to it's proximity to home. For the same reasons the Flames will likely not be able to retain Gaudreau when his current deal expires, the Oilers will unlikely be able to retain McDavid when he becomes a UFA.
That's a whole boat load of assuming going on in both examples. Your scenarios are totally plausible, but to try and predict that Gaudreau and McDavid will feel exactly as they do now or as they did at draft day in regards to playing near home is a stretch. There's a lot of living to do and priority changing that is going to go on between now and then.
Stamkos decide to not become a Leaf, Sackic never returned to the LML, Iggy has yet to go back to Edmonton.....the lists could go on and on.
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Edmonton should just trade him to the Leafs this summer for their next 10 firsts, and they both get what's coming to them, with a bit of a bonus for doing it sooner than later.
All this talk from Edmonton fans about out streak and it's 'unsustainable nature' makes me laugh because the only true thing that has proven to be 100 % consistently sustainable is E=NG. It's up there with Newton's law and the theory of relativity; a direct descendant of Murphy's law.. because it just is. E=NG.
Mm. Coming from a team that's been unable to string together more than a couple at a time all year.
Yes it's unsustainable, clearly. But even when they are no long winning at such a torrid pace they'll still be in a comfortable position in the standings and I don't think they'll be too worried about the "win one, OTL, lose one" Oilers suddenly seizing the day and running away with the #2 seed again.
Flames have been streaky, but the Oil have been inconsistent in their own way.
