[CP Story] Built for a Run?

[zukes]

Everyone seems to be leery about the 2nd round pick.

According to this article: http://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percen...draft-1.206144 only 44% of 2nd round picks play even 50 games in the NHL.

Forgetting that he already has 176 NHL games under his belt at 22 years old, I think that it is safe to assume that Lazar will at least play 50 MORE games in the NHL as the Flames will need to give him that amount of time to see what they have. So right there he is better than half of the 2nd round picks from 2000-2009 (based on the article).

He is already considered to have many NHL caliber attributes: size, skating (for his size), complete level, make-up. It's the skills that seem to have not developed. He has been playing on the 4th line with Chris Neil (think Brandon Bollig) so some of the bad stats can be forgiven. His numbers the previous two years weren't eye popping (6-9-15 in 67GP and 6-14-20 in 76GP) but he was also probably rushed to the NHL and they aren't terrible for a player who would have been 19-20 and 20-21 in those seasons.

The Flames essentially gave up a 2nd round pick for a 1st round pick in my opinion.

[killer_carlson]

That would be one of your best articles Bingo. Well done.

[howard_the_duck]

The most encouraging thing for me, is I think the success they're starting to realize isn't smoke and mirrors. It's not on the backs of 1 or 2 players playing out of their minds, it's a much more sustainable and balanced attack than we've seen in a long, long time. And it's a young group that is getting better.

I give a ton of credit to GG's system, because I haven't seen this level of puck control and variations in attack from a Flames team since I can recall watching them. Even when results weren't there earlier in the year, I still felt when watching they were in control of the play and it was only a matter of time.

Maybe this winning 8 out of 10 games isn't sustainable, but I think something is finally clicking here and they're laying the foundation to take that next step as a franchise.

[polak]

Wouldn't say they're built for a run but it's clear with the lack of help on offense, they didn't really try to be and I think in the long run that was the right choice.

Still think they've been playing well and can hopefully continue this and solidify a playoff spot and maybe even make a bit of noise. In all honesty if Gaudreau and Monahan are actually back for good this time and the 3M line continues it's ways we will have plenty of scoring.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I think it IS a cycle, I just also think the timing could be right for the upswing.

Kings
Sharks
Ducks
Ducks
Kings
Sharks

That sticks out like a fantastically tragic opportunity for the cycle to #### the bed though, right at the critical end of the season. Lets hope they've built themselves a cushion before then.

[Rollin22x]

I liked Treliving's comments regarding the goalie situation. Improve the guys in front of them to help the goalies reach their potential. To me, this has been one of the best moves that immediately provided results and set the team up well for the stretch.
I predict a few players will really up their game.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by nik-

Kings
Sharks
Ducks
Ducks
Kings
Sharks

That sticks out like a fantastically tragic opportunity for the cycle to #### the bed though, right at the critical end of the season. Lets hope they've built themselves a cushion before then.

I had forgotten that was how the season ended. I remember looking at that when the schedule came out and thinking that they had better be in a good position before then. 3 home games, then on the road for the same 3 teams.

One other scheduling thing that could get them ready for playoff hockey is that starting March 9th, they literally play every other night for their last 16 games. Should be easy to get into a rhythm at the very least.

[Gaudfather]

The thing I will be most curious about getting a better read on with respect to Lazar is his hockey IQ. Lots of comments coming out of Ottawa suggested that was his Achilles heel, but Cameron, Pascal, Treliving etc.. all seem to think Lazar can think this game at a high level and it is more a confidence issue.

If true, this could definitely be a winner trade, but only time will tell.

[Parallex]

I think the 2nd round pick is a waste for Lazar.

I don't think highly of Lazar as a player (I don't think he'll be much help in the now) and that second round pick could have been a chip to use for a better asset down the line.

I mean Vegas is going to be drafting 31 players off of the other teams and go through free agency... that means that they're going to have a surplus of non-waiver exempt bodies that they have to do something with. Odds are that they're going to trade them for picks/prospects and I figure that a 2nd round pick is going to be the going rate for those surplus bodies we're talking the #5/#8 forward on a team or #4/#5 d-men. Or it could have been used to trade for a guy from another team, or to move up in the draft, or trade down to get some extra picks to recoup one of the conditionals we probably give up (I figure we'll end up retaining one of Stone or Elliot).

I think it was a trade that doesn't really help us now (and possibly ever) and handicaps us in the near term.

I do however have no problem with getting Stone or signing Bartowski.

[Textcritic]

Great article, Bingo.

Originally Posted by nik-

I wish I could be all in on this resurgence, but the hot December followed by a return of the tire fire has me pessimistic that this isn't another cycle.

"Tire fire"? It was a bad stretch of four or five games. Lots of teams go through them, but I think it is important to point out that the Flames have suffered only two extended losing streaks of four games this season, and have not otherwise lost over two games in a row. Since the bad start they have the seventh best record in the NHL starting at game #17. The Flames entered the TD day in the best position they have seen since the 2008–09 season.

This is not a "resurgence." The team has been playing great hockey for extended portions all year.

Originally Posted by nik-

Kings — The Flames just all but pushed them out of the playoffs with a huge win two nights ago.
Sharks — The Flames have a winning record over the Sharks.
Ducks — The Flames are 1-1 in their season series so far. If they want to take a step forward as a team, then they need to get over that hump and win in Anaheim. I think it happens this year.

That sticks out like a fantastically tragic opportunity for the cycle to #### the bed though, right at the critical end of the season. Lets hope they've built themselves a cushion before then.

That already HAVE built a cushion. This is a playoff team. They are actually shaping into one that could make some noise and win a round or even two.

[Erick Estrada]

An added bonus of the trade is that it means Brouwer is almost certain to be exposed in the expansion draft. Unloading his contract would make it much easier to retain Stone via free agency.

[JiriHrdina]

My take on the moves heading to the deadline
- Still surprised that they were able to acquire Stone for such a low price. If indeed they can re-sign him, it could end up being a very good deal long-term.
- On the surface a 2nd for Lazar seems high, but I think as we approach the draft, it really is shaping up to be a weak one with shallow depth. We here this regularly, but as the year progresses guys emerge and sometimes the draft ends up being more solid than anticipated a year out. This has not happened this year at all. So I view the 2nd as being relatively low value compared to other years. In fact, I'm relieved it is the 2017 pick they sent instead of a 2018 2nd.

All and all I'm happy. Yes it would have been nice to move Wideman but I'm not surprised they couldn't get it done. I maintain they've been trying to move him for the better part of 2 years, and there is simply no market for him.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I think the 2nd round pick is a waste for Lazar.

I don't think highly of Lazar as a player (I don't think he'll be much help in the now) and that second round pick could have been a chip to use for a better asset down the line.

I mean Vegas is going to be drafting 31 players off of the other teams and go through free agency... that means that they're going to have a surplus of non-waiver exempt bodies that they have to do something with. Odds are that they're going to trade them for picks/prospects and I figure that a 2nd round pick is going to be the going rate for those surplus bodies we're talking the #5/#8 forward on a team or #4/#5 d-men. Or it could have been used to trade for a guy from another team, or to move up in the draft, or trade down to get some extra picks to recoup one of the conditionals we probably give up (I figure we'll end up retaining one of Stone or Elliot).

I think it was a trade that doesn't really help us now (and possibly ever) and handicaps us in the near term.

I do however have no problem with getting Stone or signing Bartowski.

I don't think the Vegas rejects would hold that much appeal to the point where the Flames would be willing to trade a 2nd rounder for one of them, but I could be wrong. Only time will tell what kind of "talent" Vegas will be trying to offload after the expansion draft.

Draft picks are normally more valuable at the draft so your statement about potentially using the 2nd rounder to acquire someone better is valid imo, but Lazar's age/salary fits in nicely for the Flames so I'm excited to see how it turns out.

[JurassicTunga12]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Didn't realize it was that good

Indeed. I knew we have been on a pretty good stretch(the games we went down 4-0 in four straight games aside), but that is interesting. Only Chicago, Minnesota and San Jose have been better in the western conference than the Flames since Nov 14 and it seems by not much. Very surprising. Hopefully they can continue this. An over 3 month sample size is pretty good though. Encouraging.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

That already HAVE built a cushion. This is a playoff team. They are actually shaping into one that could make some noise and win a round or even two.

LA beats the Leafs tonight and that cushion is 4 points.

[Gaudfather]

Originally Posted by polak

LA beats the Leafs tonight and that cushion is 4 points.

Should be a good game - both Kings and Leafs are desperate for a win.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Great article, Bingo.



"Tire fire"? It was a bad stretch of four or five games. Lots of teams go through them, but I think it is important to point out that the Flames have suffered only two extended losing streaks of four games this season, and have not otherwise lost over two games in a row. Since the bad start they have the seventh best record in the NHL starting at game #17. The Flames entered the TD day in the best position they have seen since the 2008–09 season.

This is not a "resurgence." The team has been playing great hockey for extended portions all year.


That already HAVE built a cushion. This is a playoff team. They are actually shaping into one that could make some noise and win a round or even two.

Not a big enough cushion. Another stretch of four or five brutal games means they're likely out. Here's hoping they stay playing well.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by polak

LA beats the Leafs tonight and that cushion is 4 points.

The Kings need to win 2/3 of their remaining games against the Flames to get the tie-breaker. And then the team that has just gone through a 3-5-2 stretch of games must gain six points on the team that has gone 7-2-1 over the same stretch. Barring that, then the Kings need a seven-point gain, not just six.

Even with a win tonight I don't see the Kings making up what has become a pretty substantial gap. Yes. The cushion is not a guarantee, but it is a pretty reliable insurance policy.

[zukes]

Just did some quick math with an arbitrary end point (always fun). The Flames record since they started the year at 5-10-1?

29-16-3. That pace would out them in a tie with San Jose for 1st in the division, albeit, San Jose would have 2 games in hand.

I really think this team could get out of the division and then who knows?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by nik-

Not a big enough cushion...

We shall see.