[News] Calgary Flames sat down with the league to talk about penalties drawn on the team

[Street Pharmacist]

Just came to post that. I'm not sure you can argue against it

[united]

The article itself: https://statsbylopez.com/2017/02/24/...ggression-too/

In addition to the comparison of the curves above, we can assess the significance of the Flames’ increase using the Poisson distribution. Initially linked to hockey more than a decade ago by Alan Ryder, the Poisson distribution is appropriate for penalty outcomes given the fixed amount of time in each game and the discrete counts. Sure enough, the 55% rate increase is statistically significant when comparing mean penalties pre and post-hit, and it is quite unlikely that the difference could be accounted for by chance alone. For those scoring at home, the p-value is less than 0.0001, and the 95% confidence interval for the rate increase goes from 19% to 106%.

AND

At more than one penalty a game across more than a full season of play, it’s easy, albeit unsafe, to extrapolate and estimate that Calgary’s jump in penalties was worth about 20 goals against. This is an incredible total. Even if only part of Calgary’s increase in penalties was due to a revenge factor, the biggest impact of Wideman’s hit on the Flames wasn’t felt in his suspension, but in the penalty box.

[CaptainCrunch]

With a similar lineup of players with the exception of MT who's a pest there's no reason for there to be that much of a difference.

Its too bad there's no way to miss blatantly obvious calls, because I'm willing to be that obvious calls missed by our opposition increased while ours decreased.

I would also be interested in seeing what the penalty calls are like late in the game when the Flames are down by a few goals.

[zukes]

Very interesting chart, I assume that the drop in taken and rise in drawn coincides with the meeting they had?

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

Just another putrid, embarrassing night for the NHL officials in a Calgary game.

In particular, the text-book penalty shot missed on Gaudreau as well as the subsequent hook on Gio by Johnson. Not to mention, if you don't want to call a head-shot or elbow on the Tkachuk play, the puck was nowhere near him. Brutal.

If anyone is trying to assert there isn't some kind of lingering bias due to the Wideman incident, their only explanation is that the officials are embarrassingly inept at the their jobs.

It's just cringe worthy bad at this point. It's a joke.

Here are Wideman's stats, this year and last year:

2015-16: 51 games, 30 PIMs
2016-17: 52 games, 30 PIMs

He's been assessed 10 minor penalties this year, of which 3 are for delay of game. You'd think Wideman would be the one most punished by a major conspiracy due to hatred caused by his hit. He hasn't been...

[Toonage]

lol...yep, just mentioned something similar in the Trade thread.

[zukes]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Here are Wideman's stats, this year and last year:

2015-16: 51 games, 30 PIMs
2016-17: 52 games, 30 PIMs

He's been assessed 10 minor penalties this year, of which 3 are for delay of game. You'd think Wideman would be the one most punished by a major conspiracy due to hatred caused by his hit. He hasn't been...

I'm sure his ice time is down as well. I also don;t think that what is going on is a conscious choice by the majority of the referees and in fact, I would guess that they are very conscious of penalties called against Wideman himself.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Here are Wideman's stats, this year and last year:

2015-16: 51 games, 30 PIMs
2016-17: 52 games, 30 PIMs

He's been assessed 10 minor penalties this year, of which 3 are for delay of game. You'd think Wideman would be the one most punished by a major conspiracy due to hatred caused by his hit. He hasn't been...

You're ignoring Burke's loud defense and Gio's (?) text messages. The officials were more upset about the defense than the act I would bet. Bad enough he injured the guy, but now the team defends him? That's what got them riled up I'm sure

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by zukes

i'm sure his ice time is down as well. I also don;t think that what is going on is a conscious choice by the majority of the referees and in fact, i would guess that they are very conscious of penalties called against wideman himself.

2015-16: 20:37 toi
2016-17: 20:38 toi

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You're ignoring Burke's loud defense and Gio's (?) text messages. The officials were more upset about the defense than the act I would bet. Bad enough he injured the guy, but now the team defends him? That's what got them riled up I'm sure

It was Wideman who sent the text message to a teammate complaining about the refs and the media that was later used as evidence against him. Just another reason to go after him specifically...but nothing

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Here are Wideman's stats, this year and last year:

2015-16: 51 games, 30 PIMs
2016-17: 52 games, 30 PIMs

He's been assessed 10 minor penalties this year, of which 3 are for delay of game. You'd think Wideman would be the one most punished by a major conspiracy due to hatred caused by his hit. He hasn't been...

You're assuming the refs are mad at Wideman, but what if they're more mad at the Flames organization for how they defended him.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by united

The article itself: https://statsbylopez.com/2017/02/24/...ggression-too/

In addition to the comparison of the curves above, we can assess the significance of the Flames’ increase using the Poisson distribution. Initially linked to hockey more than a decade ago by Alan Ryder, the Poisson distribution is appropriate for penalty outcomes given the fixed amount of time in each game and the discrete counts. Sure enough, the 55% rate increase is statistically significant when comparing mean penalties pre and post-hit, and it is quite unlikely that the difference could be accounted for by chance alone. For those scoring at home, the p-value is less than 0.0001, and the 95% confidence interval for the rate increase goes from 19% to 106%.

Its disgusting that this has gone on and there has been no repercussions nor response from the league hoping people don't notice/don't care. I would be PO'd if i was a season ticket holder and paid to watch those games.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

You're assuming the refs are mad at Wideman, but what if they're more mad at the Flames organization for how they defended him.

Or he's assuming that the refs aren't smart enough to realize that any notable increase to Wideman would be ridiculously obvious and indefensible, but to punish the team is what turns him into kryptonite and ends his career after this contract. Little did they know, he would take care of that last part himself.

[Locke]

Yeah, that was a very less-than-subtle shift in refereeing.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

You'd think Wideman would be the one most punished by a major conspiracy due to hatred caused by his hit. He hasn't been...

Or you might think it would be useful to examine the evidence of the things that actually happened.

You might think it would not be useful to look at other things that have not happened (but you think should have happened), and conclude that nothing had happened at all.

Apparently you choose the latter, and ignore the evidence.

[GullFoss]

After watching all the games this season except one, here is an alternative take based on the following eye-test observations

1) The dome is very quiet relative to road stadiums. You can here it on TV. How loud was Tampa last night? Nashville earlier this week? Edmonton every game we've played there. Now...how quiet is the saddledome? Super quiet.
2) Reffing looks very fair-ish at the dome. Maybe 2-4 games have been bad all year. Which is nothing when you consider that none of us are truly impartial and every team is going to get breaks going both ways.
3) The reffing looks very very lopsided on the road
4) Lots of referree turnover

Hypothesis: The PP/PK mismatch is entirely driven by road games. Could it be driven by the fact that the referees are more intimidated by opposition fans than they are by us? I wonder... If the dome was louder, would we get more calls at home?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

Hypothesis: The PP/PK mismatch is entirely driven by road games. Could it be driven by the fact that the referees are more intimidated by opposition fans than they are by us? I wonder... If the dome was louder, would we get more calls at home?

Did the Saddledome suddenly become much quieter because of the Wideman incident?

Your hypothesis explains the wrong thing, it seems to me.

The Saddledome has always been relatively quiet (during the regular season especially) – partly because of the acoustics of the building, which have not changed since 1983. If your hypothesis were true, we would expect to see that the Flames had taken more penalties than their opposition at all times since 1983. But we don't see that. What we see is a very sudden and sharp change after the Wideman incident, and your hypothesis says nothing about that at all.

[dino7c]

Flames play at home also has much to do with the noise level

Nashville was a library until coming back from 4-1...I can assure you the dome would be rocking in that situation

In the playoffs a couple years back the Ducks said the dome was even louder than Winnipeg playing their first playoff game in a couple decades

Dome gets loud, need something to cheer about

and beyond that its a terrible excuse for bad reffing

Last game wasn't terrible but I can't get over why different penalty shot rules seem to apply to JG

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Or you might think it would be useful to examine the evidence of the things that actually happened.

You might think it would not be useful to look at other things that have not happened (but you think should have happened), and conclude that nothing had happened at all.

Apparently you choose the latter, and ignore the evidence.

I get you're trying to be clever with your words but looking at whether more or less penalties were called on Wideman (who is the key guy in the conspiracy theory) is most certainly examining evidence of things that actually happened.

As for your talk of ignoring evidence, it's funny this article shows (but conveniently doesn't discuss) the refs are calling the same number of penalties against the other team pre/post the Wideman incident. Most complaints in the gameday threads regarding the Wideman conspiracy have been about the refs MISSING calls against the other team (constant slashes against Johnny, head shot to Tkachuk, etc.). This evidence you seem to value rules that out...

Either way, I'm sure we won't reach agreement on this. I just don't buy into far-fetched conspiracy theories that make us look like the whiny Canucks and Kings fans complaining about the NHL being out to get them.For the logic to even make sense, you'd have to assume the refs are smart enough to realize that taking it out on Wideman is too obvious...yet they don't realize people will see their secret revolt by calling more against the Flames instead. And of course, with their secret revolt, they'll only call more penalties against the Flames but won't dare call less penalties against the other team. I'd rather the story just die and we move on...

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

I get you're trying to be clever with your words but looking at whether more or less penalties were called on Wideman (who is the key guy in the conspiracy theory) is most certainly examining evidence of things that actually happened.

As for your talk of ignoring evidence, it's funny this article shows (but conveniently doesn't discuss) the refs are calling the same number of penalties against the other team pre/post the Wideman incident. Most complaints in the gameday threads regarding the Wideman conspiracy have been about the refs MISSING calls against the other team (constant slashes against Johnny, head shot to Tkachuk, etc.). This evidence you seem to value rules that out...

Either way, I'm sure we won't reach agreement on this. I just don't buy into far-fetched conspiracy theories that make us look like the whiny Canucks and Kings fans complaining about the NHL being out to get them.For the logic to even make sense, you'd have to assume the refs are smart enough to realize that taking it out on Wideman is too obvious...yet they don't realize people will see their secret revolt by calling more against the Flames instead. And of course, with their secret revolt, they'll only call more penalties against the Flames but won't dare call less penalties against the other team. I'd rather the story just die and we move on...

Your ignoring the most obvious answer. Subconscious bias is inherent in all of us. Refs are human. Read what Kerry Fraser wrote about Don Shoenfeld. It happens all the time. You honestly don't think Burrows stopped getting the benefit of the doubt?