Toronto Blue Jays - Offseason Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Cappy

If he got on base more he would be Kevin Kiermaier

Kiermaier doesn't get on base that much more then Pillar. He has a 50 point career OPS advantage on Pillar but 80% of that comes from slugging. Although I think that comes from Pillar's lack of plate discipline... they have similer OBP but Kiermaier has more a % of it coming from walks so pitchers can't throw him the same garbage they can Pillar.

[Jason14h]

Pillar's power disapeared after his thumb injury last season. Let's see if it comes back.

And stop guessing at the plate!

[ClubFlames]

http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/118...higher-payroll

The Toronto Blue Jays will carry a budget of approximately $165 million to start the 2017 season, a 20 percent increase from the starting payroll in 2016, sources told TSN's Rick Westhead.

To end the 2016 season, the Blue Jays ranked 13th in total team salary with a mark of $115.9 million, according to ESPN. With arbitration players included, the team operated at roughly $135 million last year.

With the increased budget, Toronto will have some more wiggle room to sign marquee players.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Kiermaier doesn't get on base that much more then Pillar. He has a 50 point career OPS advantage on Pillar but 80% of that comes from slugging. Although I think that comes from Pillar's lack of plate discipline... they have similer OBP but Kiermaier has more a % of it coming from walks so pitchers can't throw him the same garbage they can Pillar.

I should've qualified that to Kiermaier last season (his "Breakout"). He had a .330 OBP, which is fairly decent for a defence-first guy. Pillar also has a better BABIP but probably from more contact (the difference isn't huge)

The point wasn't what if Pillar was a way better hitter. It was, what if he stayed on base more - to the tune of a decent OBP. He won't be a star, but he would be a solid defender (he's not as good as KK) that you are fine with putting at the bottom of the order.

If you want more OBP, maybe look at a guy like Ender Inciarte. Again, not a star, but a solid player who i would love to have patrolling CF at the dome.

KP is a good player. His D is great and helps you put better offensive guys in the corner. CFers are hard to find as well. Perhaps because of this, KP has a good trade value...

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ClubFlames

http://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/118...higher-payroll

So that means the Jays have about $30 million more to spend still, with roughly $135 million committed at this point.

Biggest weaknesses at this point are the corner OF spots, and the bullpen, but the bullpen is actually got a decent back end on paper with Biagini, Osuna and Grilli.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

So that means the Jays have about $30 million more to spend still, with roughly $135 million committed at this point.

That 30M will go fast. The bullpen needs a higher leverage full inning lefty (call that 5M considering the market for that this year) + a decent back-up catcher (call that 2M) say another 15M for an everyday outfielder that leaves 8M for another outfielder and at 8M your probably looking at a LH platoon bat in that spot.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That 30M will go fast. The bullpen needs a higher leverage full inning lefty (call that 5M considering the market for that this year) + a decent back-up catcher (call that 2M) say another 15M for an everyday outfielder that leaves 8M for another outfielder and at 8M your probably looking at a LH platoon bat in that spot.

I think a back up catcher is going to be cheap, like near minimum cheap. Atkins has said they'd like to bring in a guy to fight for that spot with Jiminez, so that should make it pretty clear that they don't plan on committing any serious money to back up catcher.

I agree with you on a high leverage lefty, but it won't surprise me if they try to fill that role cheaply as well. Sure it'd be nicer on paper to snag a guy with more of a proven record, but with relief pitchers for the most part it's hard to be sure what you will get, so committing a bunch of money to it is very risky. Just look at what a let down Cecil gave us for the first half of last season for example. I think they try to fill this role from within. If they do go outside the org to find it I doubt it will be a high priced guy like Logan or Blevins, but more likely an under the radar guy that the Jays FO believes can take that next step (ala Biagini last year).

I guess we'll see though, still a ton of off-season left.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Unlikely. Pillar is a legit elite centerfielder one year away from arbitration. That's very valuable. That's not to say that I wouldn't trade him for an even more valuable commodity (in terms of surplus value) but it would be very hard to find that.

I'd argue about that personally. Kevin's defence is one of the best in the league - I don't think many would argue that. But his plate discipline and pitch selection are bad, and he's old enough now that he should have developed that. Keeping him based on just defence isn't worth it. When looking at an all around lineup, last year he was one of the holes. I'd trade of lesser defence for a better bat.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'd trade of lesser defence for a better bat.

That's a three win bat you're looking for then (on a league minimum salary this year and reduced pay on market on Arb1 & Arb2 the two year after) good luck finding that.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'd argue about that personally. Kevin's defence is one of the best in the league - I don't think many would argue that. But his plate discipline and pitch selection are bad, and he's old enough now that he should have developed that. Keeping him based on just defence isn't worth it. When looking at an all around lineup, last year he was one of the holes. I'd trade of lesser defence for a better bat.

I get what you are saying but I think you are underrating Pillar and how difficult it is to fine a good CFer. Based on War Pillar was the 9th best CF in the MLB last year and over the last 2 seasons he is the 8th best based on WAR.

With no obvious candidate to replace him I think you need to tread pretty carefully if you are going to trade Pillar.

[Jason14h]

There's zero chance the Jays trade Pillar. Atkins loves D and cost controlled players.

[Jason14h]

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports hears from sources that the Indians are "pulling out all the stops" to try to sign free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion.

Encarnacion is a perfect fit for the Indians on the surface, so it's not a surprise that they continue to have interest, but questions remain about whether they'll make a big enough bid in order to get a deal done. It's out of character for them to pay for big-name free agents, but they are in their prime window of opportunity. Heyman hears that the Indians have also made offers to some of the other free agent first baseman/DH-types, including Mike Napoli. As for Encarnacion, his agent, Paul Kinzer, told Heyman that his client has received three- and four-year offers from at least five different teams.

Not great for the pick! Grrrrrrr

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'd argue about that personally. Kevin's defence is one of the best in the league - I don't think many would argue that. But his plate discipline and pitch selection are bad, and he's old enough now that he should have developed that. Keeping him based on just defence isn't worth it. When looking at an all around lineup, last year he was one of the holes. I'd trade of lesser defence for a better bat.

I agree, if his offensive game doesn't show signs of developing soon, he'll end up a platoon guy like Darwin Barney

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by fleury

I'd argue about that personally. Kevin's defence is one of the best in the league - I don't think many would argue that. But his plate discipline and pitch selection are bad, and he's old enough now that he should have developed that. Keeping him based on just defence isn't worth it. When looking at an all around lineup, last year he was one of the holes. I'd trade of lesser defence for a better bat.

If Pillar was a corner OF'er than I would agree, but because defense up the middle (C, SS, CF) is so important, you take the glove over the bat at those positions every time, especially with young starting pitching. Defense at those positions makes your pitching look a whole lot better.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by cross16

As much as i've been outspoken about not wanting Bautista back the way the outfield market is developing brining him back on a 1 year deal is looking like a fairly attractive option. Certainly of the FA options left and the obvious trade candidates (Bruce/Granderson) I think he is the best option again provided he is willing to just take the qualifying offer. I woudn't want to see him get any term. Could mabye stomach 2 years if the $ figure was something reasonable but certainly don't want to see anything more than 2 years.

I am starting to come around to this idea as well. I thought there would be more OF options out there, but after Fowler there wasn't much.

I wonder if KC would move Cain and how much would it take get him? He is a free agent after this year and with the new CBA they won't get the same draft pick compensation that they would have. If they want to maximize his value they would be better off trading him this off-season.

[Alberta_Beef]

Originally Posted by JTech780

If Pillar was a corner OF'er than I would agree, but because defense up the middle (C, SS, CF) is so important, you take the glove over the bat at those positions every time, especially with young starting pitching. Defense at those positions makes your pitching look a whole lot better.

Except it's not just Great defense w/ poor hitting vs Great hitting w/ poor defense, there are enough players that give good defense and good hitting that it makes it difficult for players that are only good for their glove less valuable. Darwin Barney is a great example, he won a gold glove in 2012, in 2015 he spent most of the year in AAA because of his bat.

[JTech780]

Originally Posted by Alberta_Beef

Except it's not just Great defense w/ poor hitting vs Great hitting w/ poor defense, there are enough players that give good defense and good hitting that it makes it difficult for players that are only good for their glove less valuable. Darwin Barney is a great example, he won a gold glove in 2012, in 2015 he spent most of the year in AAA because of his bat.

Except Barney won that gold glove at 2B which isn't a premium defensive position.

I get what you are saying there is a bit of give and take. Pillar's trade value isn't that great because of his bat, but his defense gives the Jays great internal value as it makes every pitcher on the staff better. When you look at the alternatives for the Jays if Pillar was traded, Upton, Carrera, Pompey, I think adds to Pillar's value to this team.

[Jason14h]

Pillar still had an offensive WAR of 1.1. His total WAR was 3.4.

Do you know which position players on the Jays had a better WAR last season?

Donaldon at 7.4 and EE at 3.7.

That is all

Pillar was almost as valuable as EE (Who is gone)

And he's under cost control. AND played with a broken thumb half the season.

His oWAR was 2.8 in 2015. Why do we think he can't return to that level if healthy?

That puts him in the top 15 for WAR in the league

We should totally trade this guy.......

[cross16]

I think its a bit laughable to compare Pillar to Darwin Barney, and I think that comparison complete ignores that Pillar isn't the terrible hitter people make him out to be. Barney's careeer high in BA is .276 and career high in OPS is .666 and that was his rookie season in the NL and it was downhill after that. Pillar has never had a season that bad when he's played a meaningful amount of games and he's putting up those number in the AL East. I also agree that the drop in his stats last year had more to do with his inujry than anything else. he was actually have a pretty decent season offensivly until he got hurt in August and then everything plummeted. Was slashing .about 270/.300/.700 until he got hurt.

I compeltely understand that he is frustrating to watch at the plate and by no means am I suggesting he is a good hitter. But to say he is on his way to be a platoon player is a pretty silly statement IMO.

[cross16]

Originally Posted by JTech780

I wonder if KC would move Cain and how much would it take get him? He is a free agent after this year and with the new CBA they won't get the same draft pick compensation that they would have. If they want to maximize his value they would be better off trading him this off-season.

I think they would get a ton for him and then you are going to have to pay a ton to keep him around next year which with Tulo, Martin and Donaldson around (and Donaldson current deal up) the money won't be there.

I think any OF the Jays trade for needs to be under control.