A tale of two thirds - team stats comparison at 2/3 mark

[Finger Cookin]

Game 28 gets the Flames just over a third of the way into the season (it would be an exact third in an 84 game schedule). It also marks a good way to evenly compare the start of the season (first sixth, 14 games) to the recent stretch of play (second sixth, games 15-28).

Team stats from first 1/6:

Points: 25th in the league
GF: 13th
GF/G: 13th
GA: 30th
GA/G: 30th
SF: 12th
SF/G: 12th
SA: 22nd
SA/G: 22nd
PP%: 30th
PK%: 29th
FOW%: 10th

Team stats from second 1/6:

Points: 2nd (+23)
GF: 10th (+3)
GF/G: 10th (+3)
GA: 17th (+13)
GA/G: 15th (+15)
SF: 7th (+5)
SF/G: 7th (+5)
SA: 28th (-6)
SA/G: 28th (-6)
PP%: 15th (+15)
PK%: 12th (+17)
FOW%: 16th (-6)

If these trends continue...



I guess most importantly, coin flip playoff chances right now stand at 44.4%. Weighted stand at 30.4%. The bad start has almost been completely erased. The Flames still have a tough road ahead, needing to establish a playoff position with only 2/3 of the season remaining instead of being in contention from the start. But at least the season isn't a writeoff before Christmas.

SECOND THIRD OF SEASON UPDATE!

So here's the stat comparisons for games 1-27 (1/3) and then 28-54 (2/3). The third third has 28 games, it's not my fault!

Team stats from first third:

Points: 17th in the league
Pts/G: 17th
GF/G: 23rd
GA/G: 22nd
SF/G: 27th
SA/G: 10th
PP%: 30th
PK%: 28th
FOW%: 13th

Team stats from the second third:

Points: 17th in the league (no change)
Pts/G: 17th (no change)
GF/G: 17th (+6)
GA/G: 11th (+11)
SF/G: 12th (+15)
SA/G: 3rd (+7)
PP%: 1st (+29!!)
PK%: 10th (+18)
FOW% 20th (-7)

So, it's challenging to draw a lot of conclusions from this, since the Flames finished both segments in 17th. Not a desirable position - right on the playoff bubble. Still, looking at the improvements in the underlying numbers, one has to wonder if continuing the game plan will pay dividends down the stretch.

Every per game category improved, with the exception of faceoff win %. The powerplay went from worst to first. The PK went from a cellar dweller to top 10. SF/G and SA/G improved dramatically, but didn't drag the goals for and against counts up or down by the same amounts. Does this point to luck, bounces, inability to make big plays? Beats me.

Despite being 17th in points and points per game over both segments, the team improved from 1 game below .500 in the first third to two games over .500 in the second third. A similar 3 game improvement down the stretch would give the Flames 33 points in the final 28 games, or 88 points. Which would continue the close but not quite good enough results so far. There is a lot of work for this team to do, they haven't made it easy for themselves.

A couple of other random observations from around the league jumped out at me as I was going through the numbers:

• 13 teams in the first third had GAA of 2.50 or less. In the second third, that number dropped to 6
• Holy crap, Boston averaged over 35 shots per game and had a positive shot per game differential of over 10. And still finished in the bottom third of teams in the segment
• The Capitals demonstrated that shot counts alone don't tell a story. Outshot by 3 total shots in 30 games, they scored almost 2 more goals per game than they allowed (2nd in GF/G, 1st in GA/G) while going 23-4-3
• Man has Colorado fallen off the cliff. No other team got fewer than 20 points in the second segment, the Avs only got 11. Letting up almost 2 more goals per game than they score on average over the period as well. The anti-Capitals

I'll keep the spreadsheet handy on my PC so I can sort and crunch numbers from the first and second third.

[Puppet Guy]

thanked for Disco Stu.

[Firebot]

Calgary's hardest stretch of games by far is over. A new coach, a brutal road trip with 6 games in 9 nights, 7 back to back games by November (!), and they have already played the Blackhawks 3 times, and their star player was hurt for 3 weeks. They are playing Arizona 3 times this month, and have 5 back to back games the rest of the year. they only have one back to back game after January.

They were real poor to start the year, with Gaudreau and Monahan also missing training camp. I think at this point, now that the team has gone 8-3 beating some pretty good teams, along with most of these on the road, it's fair to say the adjustment period is over, and I think we finally get to see the real team we know is here.

[CroFlames]

I think what we're seeing right now are the real Calgary Flames. The first 15 games or so were atrocious and the top players were blatantly BAD. Something was not clicking right and what we saw was no where near how good this team could be.

If they play consistent from here on out, they should be top three in the division.

[Bunk]

Was looking up the scoring stats - interesting that Monahan is the goals leader, even despite his struggles to now.

The flames are scoring by committee - only a 5 point spread amongst the top 13 scorers on the team - all between 10 and 15 pts.

I imagine Johnny will separate himself from everyone, but I see this being very much the identity of this team - scoring very evenly distributed.

[Strange Brew]

I am certainly encouraged now. The blowout score no doubt flattered the Flames but also highlighted the competition is simply not that great.

Really need to keep up the improved special teams and goalie play. That is everything.

And it would be nice to see Brodie round into form. He didn't seem like the type of player who would be prone to extended slumps.

Very thankful we are now watching games that have playoff implications.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Game 28 gets the Flames just over a third of the way into the season (it would be an exact third in an 84 game schedule). It also marks a good way to evenly compare the start of the season (first sixth, 14 games) to the recent stretch of play (second sixth, games 15-28).

Team stats from first 1/6:

Points: 25th in the league
GF: 13th
GA: 30th
SF: 12th
SA: 22nd
PP%: 30th
PK%: 29th
FOW%: 10th

Team stats from second 1/6:

Points: 2nd (+23)
GF: 10th (+3)
GA: 17th (+13)
SF: 7th (+5)
SA: 28th (-6)
PP%: 15th (+15)
PK%: 12th (+17)
FOW%: 16th (-6)

To be fair, only Calgary and Winnipeg have actually played 28 games thus far (some have played as few as 23 games). So I'm not sure the points, goals, and shots totals really mean much.

The PP% and PK% numbers are definitely promising though (especially when compared to the first 14 games), and the goals against number will almost certainly be better given Johnson's recent play.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

To be fair, only Calgary and Winnipeg have actually played 28 games thus far (some have played as few as 23 games). So I'm not sure the points, goals, and shots totals really mean much...

Over the same 16-game period (4 Nov–4 Dec) the Flames rank 18th in a seven-way tie for points (17), 17th in goals scored (35), 24th in goals against (40), 10th in shots (447), and 24th in shots allowed (474).

It should be noted that the Flames currently rank 20th in goals/game (2.46), and 23rd in goals against/game (2.89).

However, in the last 10-game stretch (18 Nov-4 Dec) the Flames are 2nd in points (13), 3rd in goals scored (28), 20th in goals against (22), 8th in shots (279), and 29th in shots allowed (316). The powerplay has ranked 13th (20%), and the penalty kill is also 13th (83.3%).

Overall it is still not great, but it is improving and looks a hell of a lot better than it did a month ago.

[Street Pharmacist]

Careful with putting arbitrary buckets of games together. I do it all the time too looking for trends, but you'll find more lies than truths if you cherry pick buckets

[worth]

So I guess Darren Haynes was pretty much spot on (so far):

http://www.flamesfrom80feet.ca/2016/...r-new-nhl.html

[MarkGio]

They've been on a good stretch. Let's review this at 3/8th of the season or even 7/16th

[bcneil]

It is encouraging that they have played much better, for a fairly long time too now.

This division is weak, we are hardly out of the playoff race now.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

To be fair, only Calgary and Winnipeg have actually played 28 games thus far (some have played as few as 23 games). So I'm not sure the points, goals, and shots totals really mean much.

The PP% and PK% numbers are definitely promising though (especially when compared to the first 14 games), and the goals against number will almost certainly be better given Johnson's recent play.

Good point about the raw totals. I was too lazy to go per/game since those stats aren't auto-generated on the NHL team stats reports (I don't think).

Give me a few minutes.

EDIT: Per game for stats added (didn't do points, sorry). Not much change in the ranks when games played is factored in. The only one seems to be GA/G, which improved more compared to the rest of the league than raw goals against.

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Game 28 gets the Flames just over a third of the way into the season (it would be an exact third in an 84 game schedule). It also marks a good way to evenly compare the start of the season (first sixth, 14 games) to the recent stretch of play (second sixth, games 15-28).

Team stats from first 1/6:

Points: 25th in the league
GF: 13th
GF/G: 13th
GA: 30th
GA/G: 30th
SF: 12th
SF/G: 12th
SA: 22nd
SA/G: 22nd
PP%: 30th
PK%: 29th
FOW%: 10th

Team stats from second 1/6:

Points: 2nd (+23)
GF: 10th (+3)
GF/G: 10th (+3)
GA: 17th (+13)
GA/G: 15th (+15)
SF: 7th (+5)
SF/G: 7th (+5)
SA: 28th (-6)
SA/G: 28th (-6)
PP%: 15th (+15)
PK%: 12th (+17)
FOW%: 16th (-6)

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

Team stats from first 1/6:

Points: 25th in the league
GF: 13th
GF/G: 13th
GA: 30th
GA/G: 30th
SF: 12th
SF/G: 12th
SA: 22nd
SA/G: 22nd
PP%: 30th
PK%: 29th
FOW%: 10th

Team stats from second 1/6:

Points: 2nd (+23)
GF: 10th (+3)
GF/G: 10th (+3)
GA: 17th (+13)
GA/G: 15th (+15)
SF: 7th (+5)
SF/G: 7th (+5)
SA: 28th (-6)
SA/G: 28th (-6)
PP%: 15th (+15)
PK%: 12th (+17)
FOW%: 16th (-6)

If these trends continue...

Game 41 is in the books, which means we're 3/6 through the season. Here are the same stats as above in games 29-41. The numbers in brackets after each stat show the change from the last update.

Points: 14th in the league (-12)
GF: 14th (-4)
GF/G: 8th (+2)
GA: 10th (+7)
GA/G: 13th (+2)
SF: 22nd (-15)
SF/G: 14th (-7)
SA: 2nd (+26)
SA/G: 2nd (+26)
PP%: 1st (+14)
PK%: 6th (+6)
FOW%: 23rd (-7)

More variations in the per game numbers this time, as the number of games played in this period varied around the league from a low of 11 (Sens) to a high of 16 (Canucks). The Flames played 13.

The special team turnaround has been well documented. Overall defense has been trending up, with both GA/G and SA/G improving significantly in this last segment. FOW% has trended down all season.

Another update to come after game 55 at the 2/3 mark.

[Trojan97]

When was the last time this team was ever strong in the dot? 03/04ish perhaps with Conroy/Yelle taking alot of them?

Feels like we're near the bottom every season.

[Finger Cookin]

So here's the stat comparisons for games 1-27 (1/3) and then 28-54 (2/3). The third third has 28 games, it's not my fault!

Team stats from first third:

Points: 17th in the league
Pts/G: 17th
GF/G: 23rd
GA/G: 22nd
SF/G: 27th
SA/G: 10th
PP%: 30th
PK%: 28th
FOW%: 13th

Team stats from the second third:

Points: 17th in the league (no change)
Pts/G: 17th (no change)
GF/G: 17th (+6)
GA/G: 11th (+11)
SF/G: 12th (+15)
SA/G: 3rd (+7)
PP%: 1st (+29!!)
PK%: 10th (+18)
FOW% 20th (-7)

So, it's challenging to draw a lot of conclusions from this, since the Flames finished both segments in 17th. Not a desirable position - right on the playoff bubble. Still, looking at the improvements in the underlying numbers, one has to wonder if continuing the game plan will pay dividends down the stretch.

Every per game category improved, with the exception of faceoff win %. The powerplay went from worst to first. The PK went from a cellar dweller to top 10. SF/G and SA/G improved dramatically, but didn't drag the goals for and against counts up or down by the same amounts. Does this point to luck, bounces, inability to make big plays? Beats me.

Despite being 17th in points and points per game over both segments, the team improved from 1 game below .500 in the first third to two games over .500 in the second third. A similar 3 game improvement down the stretch would give the Flames 33 points in the final 28 games, or 88 points. Which would continue the close but not quite good enough results so far. There is a lot of work for this team to do, they haven't made it easy for themselves.

A couple of other random observations from around the league jumped out at me as I was going through the numbers:

• 13 teams in the first third had GAA of 2.50 or less. In the second third, that number dropped to 6
• Holy crap, Boston averaged over 35 shots per game and had a positive shot per game differential of over 10. And still finished in the bottom third of teams in the segment
• The Capitals demonstrated that shot counts alone don't tell a story. Outshot by 3 total shots in 30 games, they scored almost 2 more goals per game than they allowed (2nd in GF/G, 1st in GA/G) while going 23-4-3
• Man has Colorado fallen off the cliff. No other team got fewer than 20 points in the second segment, the Avs only got 11. Letting up almost 2 more goals per game than they score on average over the period as well. The anti-Capitals

I'll keep the spreadsheet handy on my PC so I can sort and crunch numbers from the first and second third.

[TheScorpion]

Yeah but how does their FLQ rating compare to last season's at this point?

[Finger Cookin]

Since I have the dates to analyze the segments fresh in my mind, I checked some player stats quickly.

First third:

Most points: Frolik, 15
Most goals: Frolik, Monahan, Tkachuk, 6
Most PIM: Tkachuk, 49
Most power play points: Wideman, 4
Most power play goals: Ferland, Wideman, 2
Most wins: Johnson, 9
Best GAA: Johnson, 2.05
Best SV%: Johnson, .930

Second third:

Most points: Backlund, 25
Most goals: Monahan, 12
Most PIM: Tkachuk, 43
Most power play points: Gaudreau, Monahan, Backlund, 10
Most power play goals: Versteeg, Monahan, Backlund, 5
Most wins: Elliott, 8
Best GAA: Elliott, 2.41
Best SV%: Elliott, .906

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Yeah but how does their FLQ rating compare to last season's at this point?

I can't even remember how I made up FLQ that fateful day. Perhaps I'll dig up the post and crunch it again...

[Alberta_Beef]

I think the best SV% and best GAA sums up why with the improvements we are still 17th. In the first third we had more nights where goaltending bailed us out.